aaron judge needs his own thread

though the history of guys his age hitting like this is a pretty good one, especially if you're a dodger fan.

yeah, i think they'll both probably be prettttty good

but judge seems like an absolute monster

It seems fairly self-evident to me.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week; Judge is 25. A three-plus year difference at this age is generally a reliable marker of growth potential.

Bellinger's ascension has been rapid and makes sense. His slugging averages in the minors, starting at age 17, have been .358, .474, .538, .515, .627. So .620 this year doesn't strike me as entirely unexpected. Judge's, starting at age 22, read .483, .448, .489, .345 (majors), and .689 this year. I'm just skeptical about that--how many guys learn to hit when they turn 25?

Might be totally wrong, but I'd much rather have the 22-year-old with some clear foundation for his success this year (in a much tougher hitter's park, no less).

but hmm...Judge...Justice...they should get together with Vance Law and play a tourney.

i'd be skeptical if he was just mashing dongs, Kingman-style. he's a triple crown threat, though.

I don't remember anybody--anybody serious, anyway--thinking that Dave Justice had a brighter future than Frank Thomas in 1991. Besides which, it was Justice who was two years older...

that was a bit of a joke, i didn't do the scouting before i made it. i've seen Bellinger play and he's impressive, he's not Kevin Maas or anything. god i hope not, wouldn't wish that on Dodger fans.

Judge's HR are impressive, no argument there, but I've got to be skeptical about the batting average. He's struck out 102 times in 286 AB and he's hitting .330. His BABIP (yes, I've been reduced to trotting out BABIP) is .420-something--as has been pointed out here, in the neighborhood of Babe Ruth's 1923 season.

I'm enjoying Judge's season, and he's probably already clinched the MVP (the three Houston guys are going to split all their votes). But I would take Bellinger without a second thought.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

if this year is any indication, though, bellinger's poor defense might dull any offensive edge he has on judge

i guess i just don't agree that judge came out of nowhere. his wRC+:

2014 (A - 65 games) 167
2014 (A+ - 66 games) 149
2015 (AA - 63 games) 147
2015 (AAA - 61 games) 98
2016 (AAA - 93 games) 147
2016 (MLB - 27 games) 63
2017 (MLB - 80 games) 196

his outliers are 1) his time in 2015 AAA, which, i don't know, and 2) his 27 games with the yankees last year, which is too small of a sample and his cup of coffee, to boot. in general, he's been around 150 wRC+ since he hit professional baseball, so him kicking ass this year isn't too surprising to me. he'll come down to earth at some point, but i expect that he'll come back to around 150 wRC+ again

(i'm using his wRC+ rather than his rate stats because i have no idea what leagues or stadiums judge or bellinger played in during their minor league careers, so it seems better to use a stat that's league-adjusted)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKXhSZjMYIk

(xxpost) Good stuff--that does give a clearer picture. I went back and looked at league batting leaders for 2014-A and 2016-AAA, and he was third in OPS in A, 10th in AAA, so they were indeed pitcher's leagues. I still think the age gap is significant, though.

Obviously the most scientific way to settle this will be the Home Run Derby.

Judge is making me kinda like the Yankees, so clearly the man knows how to do the impossible

I don't care for age, right now I'm taking Judge. There is no way he ain't regressing; although who knows with Yankee Stadium + juiced ball. He'll remain a monster for a while I'm now certain.

it's easier to root for judge bc his name isn't cody

Also, there is a bunch of players under age 23 I'm taking over Bellinger.

Judge's Ks don't bother me because he's also leading the league in walks and runs scored, and his BABIP doesn't trouble me or give me false hope because he just hits the ball so hard consistently. he really is having a Frank Thomas/Pujols type season (yes w/more Ks but then again Trout struck out 184 times the year he won his first MVP award.)

I like Bellinger and what he's doing cannot possibly be a mirage but as far as peak goes, i'd be surprised if he ever has a season as good as the one Judge is having now.

Bellinger will turn 22 next week;

Is '17 considered his age-21 or age-22 season?

21

Judge is probably ending any chance of Harper going to the Yankees so far that I enjoy him.

Fangraphs had a piece on this 10 days ago:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-or-cody-bellinger/

They don't really come down on either side. Their last sentence is good:

"And that’s the simple fact that may push some to pick the Dodgers’ first baseman: those three years of catchup that Bellinger has on Judge are very valuable. Even if it looks like just a couple ticks of strikeout rate, a few more walks, and maybe a little better work in the field, it will all add up.

Consider this, though: it might all add up...so that Cody Bellinger is about the same as we’re seeing from Aaron Judge, right now."

or he might be Puig.

puig was never this good!

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 1:30 AM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

insert albert pujols age joke here

ryan braun another guy who 4-digit OPSed his rookie season though he was 23

insert albert pujols age joke here

― ciderpress, Friday, July 7, 2017 11:13 AM (sixteen minutes ago)

Better age 37 OPS: Albert Pujols or Craig Counsell?

pretty decent chance Albert's career WAR drops below 100 this season. also damn it's extremely possible that Counsell will win that battle having hit .226 with 1 HR that season.

albert should retire immediately and lock in that 100 before he loses it

puig was never this good!

― k3vin k., Friday, July 7, 2017 1:44 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

#WIGS

Can we please add intra-ilx tagging

30

Puig's first season: .319/.391/.534, 11 sb and 19 HR, 160 wrc+ over 104 games and average defense. (4.1 war)
Bellinger's first season so far: .258/.336/.613 , 5 sb and 24 HR, 142 wrc+ over 67 games and rate poorly as a 1b in defense. (2.1 war)

^^oh yeah fair, i thought we were comparing judge to puig

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/charbjo01.shtml

roll me over romeo

the rookie record is mcgwire with 49 btw O_O

lol, judge at home run derby is indeed quite the show.

absurd

sheesh

The 500-footers were amazing but the several pop-ups that just happened to go out were too.

None of this is shit compared to the warning-track power Livan Hernandez just displayed in the softball game, though.

If there are precedents for Judge, I'd be interested in who they are (no sarcasm intended). There must be somebody who came out of nowhere and tore the league up at 25.

― clemenza, Thursday, July 6, 2017 12:30 AM (six days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Paul Goldschmidt probably fits the bill. Judge was a Top 100 prospect though, which Goldschmidt never was.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9218&position=1B

Judge vs. Newton:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2017/07/13/yankees-aaron-judge-home-run-derby-roof-nasa

(Goldschmidt's pretty good, although he was dominant every stop of the way in the minors.)

What age did Josh Hamilton make his MLB debut?

Unique circumstances, obviously, but Hamilton debuted at 26 (and had his first big season at 27), so there's some relation there.

No one's mentioned him, but to me, the most cautionary parallel might be Ryan Howard. I know Howard's viewed as a joke now, but he came up at 24, got in half a season at 25--both partial seasons were strong--and at 26 he hit 58 HR with a slash line of .313/.425/.659. Even after adjustments (OPS+ = 167), it was a phenomenal year.

I'm not saying Aaron Judge is Ryan Howard, and there are lots of cautionary parallels for Bellinger, too. But that might be the downside (and Howard did get in five good years).

Last night, Aaron Judge struck out in his 36th consecutive game, breaking an ignominious single-season record previously held by pitcher Bill Stoneman in 1971. Adam Dunn fanned in 36 consecutive games between the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

'unstoppable'

I saw 87% of it! I bowl Tuesday nights; I was up the same time Judge was. Tried to time it so I'd see every pitch, but after I threw my first ball, I looked up and the HR was in the air. So did someone catch it?

honestly the stream i was watching, and the replays i've seen, it makes it hard to see where the ball even landed

(did you pick up the spare?)

Yeah, I just looked at the replay and couldn't follow the ball...I was just too preoccupied with Judge to be my usual mediocre self tonight.

i can't speak to the veracity of this because it comes via the cardinals broadcast, but according to them, the person who caught the 62nd HR is:

"vice president of ____ investment"

"manages 197 billion worldwide"

"hedgefund manager"

he should sell the ball for $460,000

He should sell it for 69,696,642.00

Can’t wait to read MLB.com/news/meet-the-billionaire-who-caught-number-62-heartwarming-story

please don't let yourselves get played, this guy is doing fine but he's not raking in millions or anything close to it

please don't let yourselves get played

as i mentioned, this came via the cardinals broadcasters and they have no idea what is going on

His name is in a few news stories. He is a VP at an investment firm. Glassdoor estimates that employees in that position at his firm have a salary of about $340,000.

now i'm on a hunt to figure out where the cardinals broadcast heard the wrong info from. shocking

i'm guessing they heard about the total investment portfolio of the firm (197 billion?! that seems like a lot but i only have like 3 dollars so everything seems big) and just attributed it all to the guy who caught the ball, due to the fact that they've been doing nothing but watching baseball for 40+ years

i think they were referencing this:

Cory Youmans, the Rangers fan who caught Aaron Judge’s 62nd home run is the VP of Fisher Investments, a firm with a $200 billion portfolio based out of Dallas. I wonder if he’s gonna take a year or two off🫢

— Arrowhead Live (@ArrowheadLive) October 5, 2022

yes, taking the overall investment portfolio of a financial services company and associating it with one individual at VP level is laughable. 340K seems generous based on my read of his seniority but dude is comfortably into the low 6 figures for sure, as i said he's doing fine but he has a mortgage and a car payment and regular shit

i think he's also married to someone who was on the bachelor

"She was eliminated in week 1."

okay so what did the tickets in that section go for? kind of a lottery ticket priced in right?

incredible season. my mother has an Aaron Judge action figure and practically worships him, and one of my best friends is from East Meadow and is a die hard Yankee, and every time he would hit an HR this year, my mom would tell me, and 5 minutes later, he'd msg me.

one of the more incredible offensive seasons in history.

If Arraez sits tomorrow--and from what I've read, he shouldn't have played tonight but wants to win the batting title playing--Judge would overtake him with a 4-4 game; he's had four 4-5 games this season. If Arraez plays, that'll get easier or harder for Judge. A single hit from Arraez would essentially close it out.

Whatever happened to those gritty players of the past who would win batting titles by going 1-1 on the final day of the season and then pull themselves out of the game?

remember when the league dictated how many games Hank Aaron had to play in an upcoming series so the Braves couldn't bench him so he could break the lifetime record at home?

imagine them trying to tell a team they weren't allowed to pull one of the contestants for batting title out early ("Arraez must play at least 8 innings")

Those were the days of Benito Kuhn.

But a few guys got pulled out of the lineup or sat out entirely when it came to batting titles, either on their own say-so or their managers--Kuhn never seemed to interfere there. To be clear, Arraez's physical ailments are 100% real (and have been lingering for weeks), and he personally seems to be bending over backwards out of respect for Judge.

Hmmmn--maybe more of a recent phenomenon than I thought.

Jose Reyes: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/870173-nl-batting-title-jose-reyes-takes-easy-way-out-to-take-the-batting-crown

Justin Morneau: https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2014/9/28/6860091/justin-morneau-national-league-batting-title-rockies

Terry Pendelton: https://www.tampabay.com/archive/1991/10/07/pendleton-sits-out-finale-but-wins-batting-title/

I assume that the idea that Shohei is the MVP, rather than Judge, is a minority opinion, but curious to see whether the minority is 5% or 40%. So who is the best player in the AL?

People who respond by arguing that there is a difference between MVP and best player are morons.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) October 6, 2022

A minority of almost 60%...Surprised--maybe the MVP will be a lot closer than I thought.

silliness

Hey, where were you four days ago when it me vs. Tracer Hand and the world?

I wasn’t really interested in the AL record discussion, but the question of who should win MVP seems pretty settled to me. I wouldn’t take bill james’s selected twitter following of confused dads to portend much when it comes to actual voting

I meant more the question of whether they were legitimately pitching to Judge during that 20-game stretch, and whether--intentional or not--the strategy was working. Anyway, it's all moot now.

The interesting thing about the James tweet to me was just that he started out assuming one result and got the other...I wouldn't characterize James's Twitter following that way; honestly, to me the result suggests the opposite. I think old-fashioned baseball people--and I'll include myself here to a degree--see Judge running away with it; more analytical-leaning fans foresee a close vote.

I always find it, sincerely, incredibly confusing when people with analytical backgrounds like Bill James and Elon Musk do a Twitter poll and appear to take the results seriously. With Musk, there’s an explanation - he knows it’s completely unreliable but he is always trolling the world. What is James’ excuse?

I mean, I run a Twitter poll every once in a while because it’s funny but it absolutely absurd to take the results seriously. It breaks all 194228 rules of statistical methodology

James should never, ever have gone on Twitter. I don't keep up with anyone there, but from what he posts on his own site--where he constantly complains about Twitter--he just seems completely ill-suited. He's always talking about blocking people for rudeness, which I suspect amounts to them disagreeing with him. James is an old-fashioned, voice-of-God writer; I say it, you agree. He didn't start out that way; three decades of deification will do that. Even in the "Ask Bill" section of his own site, there is a sort of deference built into most questions.

Yeah I think he’s overstayed his welcome, tbh. I guess if anyone’s earned a right to be crabby and frequently and self-righteously wrong, it’s him

nobody's earned that right!

“If”!

Death to Bill James!

Seven strikeouts and counting in two games--looks lost right now.

I was lost, and now I'm found.

From a Jayson Stark column today:

Check this out. It’s the Yankees’ mountainous masher through 47 games in 2023 versus that same mountainous masher through 47 games in 2022. It’s mind-blowing.

HOME RUNS

2023 — 18
2022 — 18

MULTI-HR GAMES

2023 — 4
2022 — 4

MULTI-HIT GAMES

2023 — 13
2022 — 13

RUNS SCORED

2023 — 41
2022 — 39

RBIs

2023 — 39
2022 — 38

EXTRA-BASE HITS

2023 — 28
2022 — 27

PA/HR

2023 — 11.2
2022 — 11.3

SLASH LINE

2023 — .298/.410/.679/1.088
2022 — .303/.371/.657/1.029

Aaron Boone said he expects Aaron Judge to return this season but stopped short of guaranteeing it. “That’s an absolute. I can’t say that about anyone.”

— Bryan Hoch ⚾️ (@BryanHoch) June 24, 2023

Yeah the second I read about the second toe injection, it was a bad vibe. Does Aaron Judge even have a toe anymore?

Torn ligament in his toe. Can’t walk without pain. Fucking hell.

Genuinely surprised that last night was his first 3-HR game.

As measured by games, fastest ever to 250 HR.

https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judge-becomes-mlbs-fastest-player-to-250-career-homers-034419437.html