brexit negging when yr mandate is is trash: or further chronicles of a garbage-fire

my fave (from a Labour Right remoaner) is "the good election campaign proves he never properly tried to campaign for Leave" from a person who said he was toxic with the electorate and couldn't possibly connect with them.

Soft capital punishment...Deckchairs/Titanic.

We're all working hard tonight huh?

xp
I meant to say "campaign for Remain" there obv

This post brought to you by a couple of tinnies.

self help group : brexit related booze excess.

sign me up.

Did you watch the General election? Many people who voted UKIP went back to Labour. Its part of the reason JC has more political capital rn.
I am fully aware many Labour supporters don't want Brexit. Unfortunately its a coalition of groups that have voted Labour. The fudge must go on.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 29 June 2017 20:07 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
did many kippers go back to Labour? I honestly haven't read anything to that effect.
― -_- (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 29 June 2017 20:09 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
From what I saw the UKIP vote collapsed with a split vote going Tory:Labour for a lot of the time.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 29 June 2017 20:13 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I saw some graphic the other day that suggested this wasn't the case, i.e. very UKIP voters switched to Labour. According to this thing, what actually happened was a lot of ex-UKIPers just didn't vote at all this time and a fair amount switched to Tory. Meanwhile Labour picked up from the Tories than they lost to them and also gained lots of Greens and (decisively) people who hadn't previously voted. The net effect looks like the UKIP vote splitting red and blue, but it seems to be more complex than that.

*very few

Gah! *picked up more

Yes, I don't think many Kippers voted Labour, Remainers did in droves though.

Yes, I don't think many Kippers voted Labour, Remainers did in droves though.

This is going to end well. Like our economy.

I saw some graphic the other day that suggested this wasn't the case, i.e. very UKIP voters switched to Labour. According to this thing, what actually happened was a lot of ex-UKIPers just didn't vote at all this time and a fair amount switched to Tory. Meanwhile Labour picked up from the Tories than they lost to them and also gained lots of Greens and (decisively) people who hadn't previously voted. The net effect looks like the UKIP vote splitting red and blue, but it seems to be more complex than that.

― Warren's Treat (Nasty, Brutish & Short), Thursday, 29 June 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

OK, even if the above was the case what would've been the effect of playing the "stop Brexit party" card on those voters? Would they have voted Tory? I haven't seen any major shifts in public opinion since the Brexit vote and the trigger of Art 50. We are divided. And lets not forget "stop Brexit" was the Lib Dem strategy and it didn't work.

Chuka Umunna‏Verified account @ChukaUmunna Jun 28

Why Single Market 'membership' is better than 'access':
1. Helps end austerity
2. Promotes social justice
3. Strongest opposition to T/May

*watches Europe impose austerity on Southern Europe for years*

And ours was a political choice by the UK government. Austerity could be ended right this second.

"austerity" is such a lie anyway, the word pretends that this is intended to be a temporary, ameliorative measure instead of the long term goal of Conservative policy that it really is

The Tories try to peddle this temp deficit solution lie about austerity while giving a £140 bn bonus to the banking system and almost doubling national debt. The EU are even worse really, they talk about the timescale of the appalling austerity they are imposing on Greece in terms of decades. No wonder they have the highest suicide rate in Europe.

I mean what Chuka is saying isn't actually wrong per se - single market membership is going to be better than access but it's going to be virtually impossible to achieve without massive concessions on freedom-of-movement that (some of) the Labour right don't want.

There is the question of how much of Corbyn's programme would be achievable in the middle of the economic collapse that a hard Brexit/WTO-rules eventuality would provoke, but I'm not sure that anyone but the most batshit Tory government would go for that. The current one is too weak to do so and will have to make if anything have to make more concessions than they were planning.

Billy Bragg... OTM?

Cucka Umunna amirite guys

Lib Dem supporter Bragg is mostly right there but he still sounds more deeply bothered about the EU than about socialism

He's totally OTM. This bullshit has been signed, sealed and delivered by the Conservatives and on their heads be it. Corbyn isn't willing to go against a referendum vote because however gullible/stupid we might think Brexit voters were, the result was democratic. There are a number of investigations of dirty Leave money chugging along (one of which implicates the DUP, so park that info somewhere for future use).

What I find incredibly disheartening: softer lefties tossing around that YOUR A TORY meme after two blessed months of relative unity.

It's almost as if he suspects the end result of hard/soft Brexit will make life worse for poor and vulnerable people than remaining in the EU. xps

"the result was democratic. There are a number of investigations of dirty Leave money chugging along"

These two consecutive statements seem to have a tense relationship.

I hope Bragg is right. I have some faith that he is; somehow I trust his political judgement.

" hard/soft Brexit will make life worse for poor and vulnerable people than remaining in the EU"

tell that to people with terminal illnesses who have been put on ESA by PIP assessors. "Lol! things can actually get worse than this!"

I did mean to continue that thought: these shadowy Leave groups and their snide bungs to weird addresses were not known last June. Those Leave voters grown-up enough not to double down on their choice are peeling off according to some polls, because of corruption like this.

Stephen Bush gets it

One red herring is the Euroscepticism of Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader. Corbyn is a Eurosceptic of long vintage, of course, but Theresa May has a history of voting to limit reproductive rights, and that didn't stop her opponents getting their way yesterday.

The truth is that – just as with the Article 50 vote last year – Corbyn's decision probably changed a handful of votes either way. Left to their own devices, Diane Abbott and Barry Gardiner, plus perhaps another 20 or so backbenchers, would have voted for the amendment.

But as it stands, a far bigger rebellion would have gone the other way. Whether through conviction that Britain does need to get its immigration under control (Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock), the belief that the referendum was a de facto one on border control so, like it or not, that must happen (Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds) or a belief that Labour must toughen its policy on immigration to win an election (Yvette Cooper, Tom Watson), there is, at present, a large majority within the PLP for a drastic breach with the European Union.

That doesn't mean that Britain's single market membership is doomed. That the 49 Labour MPs who voted on Umunna's amendment span the breadth of the party, from Kensington MP Emma Dent Coad on one end to Alison McGovern on the other, shows that Labour's single marketers have the potential, at least, to unify and convince much of the PLP.

conviction that Britain does need to get its immigration under control (Caroline Flint, Stephen Kinnock), the belief that the referendum was a de facto one on border control so, like it or not, that must happen (Jonathan Reynolds, Emma Reynolds) or a belief that Labour must toughen its policy on immigration to win an election (Yvette Cooper, Tom Watson)

so many legitimate concerns, so little xenophobia

"Lol! things can actually get worse than this!"

dude the EU has totally done a stand-up job on protecting us from the worst ravages of Austrian economics

The worst is not so long as we can say 'this is the worst', of course. But it's a tough message to get over to people for whom things are plenty shit already, as the referendum demonstrated.

tell that to people with terminal illnesses who have been put on ESA by PIP assessors. "Lol! things can actually get worse than this!"

explain to me how we repair our social care system when the economy has crashed post-Brexit. I know this thread is just a kneejerk backslap zingfest, but please explain it to me.

just print some fookin' money idk. The point I'm making is life couldn't get any worse for some people. My partner is going to a PIP appeal on monday herself, so i am not just being a zingy bastard. it was a heartfelt barb at remoaner type messaging. But ftr I did vote Remain and was against the ref.

And tbr, the cruelty of the current benefits regime is nothing to do with scarcity of resources

calzino, sorry if i sounded like a cunt and i'm enraged on your behalf for what your partner is going through. my dad had the same condition and i can't imagine what it would have been like to have had to deal with it in the current landscape.

the eu has many, many faults, but we are fuckedfuckedfucked outside of it. societies generally don't make decisions that benefit their most vulnerable when their economies collapse.

I don't think there are many ardent Brexiteers on this board, but like I've said before there is something a little irksome about the way some people in other spheres of public discourse have thrown their toys out of the pram over this one thing in a way that I've never seen them do over near 40 years of the country being turned into a Friedmanite hellscape. and that's one reason why the kneejerk zings get zung.

One reason why leaving the EU *might* benefit a Corbyn government would be freedom from EU rules preventing central banks from lending directly to government, which could enable them to pursue a more activist economic policy encouraging job creation etc. If there was a hole in the Labour campaign last time, it was the question "how will you create jobs?", particularly in areas like the post-industrial Midlands where the Corbyn surge didn't really happen. This is an area where left-wing parties tend to struggle and having more levers to pull would help.

The alternative of course is that too much money is printed at once and we end up in an inflation spiral.

Ultimately the change in public attitudes re: Brexit hasn't really happened yet, the public needs to stare properly into the abyss and appreciate that it's doing so in order for their to be any democratic legitimacy for the "stop Brexit" brigade. That just hasn't happened yet.

there is something a little irksome about the way some people in other spheres of public discourse have thrown their toys out of the pram over this one thing in a way that I've never seen them do over near 40 years of the country being turned into a Friedmanite hellscape

FWIW I don't think there are many (if any) of those people on this board.

me neither, it's why I said elsewhere. but that Remoaner vibe does infect public discourse and does drag class into the argument in damaging ways. your previous post was otm.

also obviously I include cheerleaders for Blair and Brown and their governments as being contributors to the Friedmanite hellscape

something a little irksome about the way some people in other spheres of public discourse have thrown their toys out of the pram over this one thing in a way that I've never seen them do over near 40 years of the country being turned into a Friedmanite hellscape

I might be one of those people, so, I think it's just because it was such a sudden thing (easier to pinpoint the moment than 40 years of cumulative decline)

plus idk I am not super politically or economically literate or eloquent or persuasive, so in the past my level of political debate has been (12-year-old voice) "w-well I think <Thatcher / Blair's PFI deals / war in Iraq / bank bailouts / austerity / etc> is wrong and bad and based on lies and we should be nice to people!" and then the reply is "no, you're wrong and bad and based on lies!" or "lol commie" or "you can't just print money so we need to make people suffer, they probably deserve it anyway" and I'm not really smart enough to formulate a persuasive comeback

not that I am saying I have formulated any persuasive comebacks re Brexit, but it's an easier target, and easier to find a bubble for some communal toy-throwing and back-patting, I guess

I appreciate Brexit will have drastic consequences on the UK economy. But I can't bring myself to be as EU positive as mr Bragg, and in the hypocritical position of being extremely anti-austerity (but just in the UK - and fuck our friends in Greece etc). 10 years ago I probably would go weeks without even having a thought about the EU or how people live in it's poorer countries. But due to many experiences things done changed in me since then and I am not trying to be captain virtuous, but I get genuinely pissed at how people at the bottom bear the brunt of failed capitalism.

starting to feel a bit like we're back where we started. tories in power and labour arguing with each other. as much as everyone talks about how shaky the government is, it's not hard to imagine this going on for some time.

But I can't bring myself to be as EU positive as mr Bragg

You know what Lib Dems are like.

starting to feel a bit like we're back where we started. tories in power and labour arguing with each other. as much as everyone talks about how shaky the government is, it's not hard to imagine this going on for some time.

The big difference is the level of authority held by both leaders.

starting to feel a bit like we're back where we started. tories in power and labour arguing with each other and another n months of settling down and hoping that one or other party is secretly planning not to be 100% completely country-destroyingly Hard Batshit despite all their public announcements and most other evidence, because that's all you can do

hope it turns out better than the "May actually has some very cunning softer Brexit cards up her sleeve which she's fabulously misdirecting away from" theory

sorry I should stop talking about Brexit tho yes

btw an example of being frustrated by economic illiteracy/ineloquence: everyone bangs on abt how Labour would borrow and spend and 1. that's bad and 2. the Tories don't do just that and then just give it to their mates instead of public services or stimulating the wider economy

I'm p. sure 1 and 2 are annoyingly false but I don't feel safe enough to talk about it in case they go "ha-HA, explain to me some fancy economics-type words and draw me a graph of the spending deficit and the national debt over the past 30 years" and I'd have to go, "actually, I like using words but I don't really know what they mean or any numbers, bye"

perhaps it's just that I live in Oxford and occasionally meet a strain of very debating society Tory that loves to demolish anyone not using a word quite right and then deflect all actual points with strawmanning and whataboutery before going to talk to someone who looks more profitable to network with

" a strain of very debating society Tory that loves to demolish anyone not using a word quite right and then deflect all actual points with strawmanning and whataboutery before going to talk to someone who looks more profitable to network with"
lol, ain't that the truth!

Some of the very good stuff within Corbyn's manifesto wouldn't even be allowed without at least changing our relationship with the EU is another thing I was thinking but didn't manage to get into my last post, because it would probably take me 2 hours to write a neat and succinct Matt DC style paragraph!

wd just handwave those guys away with "fuck you, the whole thing needs rebuilding, for the many not the few blah blah gulags blah blah"

I don't meet many people as described in a passing spacecadet's post, but it makes me think of Nick Robinson, or maybe just most of the BBC's political crew!

oh the flashbacks

nick robinson had peter dowd mp shadow chief secretary to the treasury on the today programme this week and got him to repeat what the note left by liam byrne mp said :)