I Never MENA Hurt You; I Never MENA Make You Cry 2017 (Middle East, North Africa, and Other Geopolitical Hotspots)

Trump's really taken the Saudi line, hook and sinker. Wasn't so long ago that his dank supporters were arguing that HRC was the one hellbent on WW3.

Yeah, i think that was evident in the bungling of the Qatar situation as well.

Test

Extraordinary statement from Tillerson calling KSA and other out on Qatar.

.@statedeptspox Nauert provides a readout of Secretary Tillerson's engagement on #Qatar, regional situation pic.twitter.com/vo2FJ86BZg

— Department of State (@StateDept) June 20, 2017

A number of Exxon-Mobil's biggest investments over the past decade have been in Qatar's LNG plants.

KSA has told Qatar to shut al-Jazeera, sever all diplomatic ties with Iran and close their military base in Turkey.

Will be worth watching Tillerson's reaction.

The full, bonkers, list of demands here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/close-al-jazeera-saudi-arabia-issues-qatar-with-13-demands-to-end-blockade

Internal decision-making was presumably held up by the change in KSA's power structure but they're now in a position to try to turn the screw.

The long, impossible to meet list of demands certainly worked out when Austro-Hungary tried it.

I'm not sure what would qualify as a crisis in Syria, but this seems like a volatile situation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40413563 Hopefully it will be enough to warn Assad off and that will be it.

Contra thread title:

AP: In Yemen's secret prisons, UAE tortures and US interrogates

Hundreds of men swept up in the hunt for al-Qaida militants have disappeared into a secret network of prisons in southern Yemen where abuse is routine and torture extreme — including the “grill,” in which the victim is tied to a spit like a roast and spun in a circle of fire, an Associated Press investigation has found.

Senior American defense officials acknowledged Wednesday that U.S. forces have been involved in interrogations of detainees in Yemen but denied any participation in or knowledge of human rights abuses. Interrogating detainees who have been abused could violate international law, which prohibits complicity in torture.

Israel approves construction of 800 new homes in east Jerusalem, where Palestinians hoped to establish capital. https://t.co/c4kwukiYN4

— The Associated Press (@AP) July 5, 2017

There was this as well: Israel seizes solar panels donated to Palestinians by Dutch government. Israel doesn't give a single fuck.

whoa

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/uae-hacked-qatari-government-sites-sparking-regional-upheaval-according-to-us-intelligence-officials/2017/07/16/00c46e54-698f-11e7-8eb5-cbccc2e7bfbf_story.html?tid=a_breakingnews&hpid=hp_no-name_no-name%3Apage%2Fbreaking-news-bar

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-ends-covert-cia-program-to-arm-anti-assad-rebels-in-syria-a-move-sought-by-moscow/2017/07/19/b6821a62-6beb-11e7-96ab-5f38140b38cc_story.html?utm_term=.930728bc537f

Sky News Arabia to broadcast documentary 'Qatar...The Road to Manhattan' on Wednesday https://t.co/PjicnWFzy6 pic.twitter.com/MHPZV6e98L

— Gulf News (@gulf_news) July 24, 2017

Seems legit.

This whole Qatar thing has been pulled off quite ineptly, hasn't it?

something to keep an eye on

Abbas ordered heads of Tanzim Fatah to lead demonstrations on Friday.Tanzim was key to escalation in 2nd intifiada

— avi issacharoff (@issacharoff) July 26, 2017

Didn't expect to see Israel back down on the metal detectors at the Temple Mount.

A surprise to me too.

The UAE, in the meantime, realizing that depriving its sports-crazed citizens of televised international soccer games was a dangerous step too far, quietly decided to allow BeIN, the Aljazeera-owned worldwide sports channel, an exemption from the general embargo on the parent company.

http://time.com/4872857/saudi-arabia-qatar-patrick-theros/

Once again the whole world conspires against Kurdistan. Hey thanks guys for defeating IS but we want to protect Iraq's "unity"... It's sickening.

Iran wants in on the action too, testing a ballistic missile

big day today in the middle east

The Kurdish ref went as planned:

- Huge Yes vote
- Erdogan threatening the Kurds with all kinds of awful stuff, starving them being the worst
- It did lead to unprecedented crowds of Iranian Kurds on the streets, celebrating, too (in places like Mahabad etc)
- Israel continues to stand with the Kurds (with, again, a threatening Erdogan spouting nonsense at Israel)

#Breaking: Overwhelming majority, 92.73%, vote 'yes' for independence - electoral body releases preliminary results in #KurdistanReferendum pic.twitter.com/r1pq2vitq6

— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) September 27, 2017

Baghdad has pledged to close Kurdish airspace at 6pm on Friday and Turkey says it is considering whether to shut its frontier with Kurdistan and impose a trade ban.

Massoud Barzani, the de facto president of the region’s Kurds, had hoped to transition strong support for the poll into political leverage that could eventually help negotiate independence from Iraq. His moves have been met with increasing hostility, raising the prospect of isolation, and blockade.

Some Iraqi leaders have warned of military action, particularly over the fate of Kirkuk.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/27/over-92-of-iraqs-kurds-vote-for-independence

Women soon can drive in Saudi Arabia. Progress...

of course still can't marry, divorce, travel, open a bank account, or get a job without first getting permission from a male guardian or go outside without wearing an abaya...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/three-u-s-soldiers-killed-niger-suspected-ambush-n807821

Three U.S. Army Special Forces soldiers were killed and two were wounded in Niger on Wednesday, in an ambush by suspected Islamic militants operating from Mali, multiple sources with knowledge of the incident told NBC News.

According to the sources, one soldier form Niger was also killed in the attack.

The U.S. military did not confirm the deaths officially, but did acknowledge that a “hostile fire” incident involving U.S. troops had occurred. ...

still can't marry, divorce, travel, open a bank account, or get a job without first getting permission from a male guardian or go outside without wearing an abaya...

If they could fix the first five of those I think they'd concede the last one as least important.

interesting from the nyer profile of tillerson

In November, 2013, Tillerson travelled to Washington, D.C., to meet with Nuri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister of Iraq. Maliki was hoping to persuade Tillerson to change his mind about a sensitive political matter. Exxon was then negotiating a multibillion-dollar deal with the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, a semi-autonomous region in the northern part of the country, which has long sought independence. Under the deal, Exxon would explore for oil in some eight hundred and forty thousand acres, potentially providing the Kurds with a steady stream of revenue that was independent of the government in Baghdad. In Maliki’s view, giving the Kurds their own revenue would hasten a breakup of the country.

Maliki was not alone in objecting; President Obama opposed the deal, and his aides had prevailed upon Exxon executives to drop the Kurdish project. “We were concerned that this would further embolden the Kurds to strike out on their own,” Tony Blinken, Obama’s deputy national-security adviser at the time, told me.

The meeting, held at the Willard Hotel, ended in acrimony. Exxon had previously made an agreement with Maliki to undertake two drilling projects in southern Iraq, and Maliki, a former dissident and guerrilla fighter, threatened to cancel them if Exxon pursued the Kurdish deal. Tillerson refused. Maliki argued bluntly, “You’re dividing the country. You’re undermining our constitution!” But Tillerson held firm. “It was one of the worst meetings of my career,” a senior Iraqi official who was in attendance said. In the end, Exxon made the Kurdish deal.

http://www.dw.com/en/kurds-blame-outside-world-for-loss-of-territories-to-iraq/a-41029920

Kurds...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/17/somalia-bomber-was-ex-solider-whose-town-was-raided-by-us-forces

a theory

I'm embarrassed to say I didn't know US soldiers were in Niger, and I don't know why they're there or what the mission is.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-troops-niger/story?id=50559788

When did US forces arrive in Niger?

They arrived in early 2013 to help the French military that had intervened in neighboring Mali the year before. The French had moved into Mali after an Al Qaeda affiliated group and tribal groups took over the vast northern part of the country and were moving toward the capital of Mali. As part of the U.S. effort to assist that mission then-President Barack Obama ordered 150 U.S. military personnel to set up a surveillance drone operation over Mali that would fly from Niger's capital of Niamey.

How many U.S. troops are there in Niger?

About 800, but the vast majority of them are construction crews working to build up a second drone base in Niger’s northern desert. The rest run a surveillance drone mission from Niger’s capital of Niamey that helps out the French in Mali and other regional countries in the fight against Al Qaeda, Boko Haram and now ISIS. A smaller component, less than a hundred, are Army Green Beret units advising and assisting Niger’s military to build up their fighting capability to counter Al Qaeda and ISIS. There are an additional 300 U.S. military personnel in neighboring Burkina Faso and Cameroon doing the same thing. They are there as part of what’s known as the mission in the Lake Chad Basin.

So wait, what's happening in Saudi Arabia right now?

Saw something about a missile from Yemen, then this?

Wow lot of big news out of Saudi tonight. Reports of big names being taken into custody (Waleed bin Talal, Khaled Tuwaijri, Waleed Ibrahim).

— Tobias Schneider (@tobiaschneider) November 4, 2017

Reuters: Saudi Arabia detains princes, ex-ministers in anti-corruption drive

Saudi Arabia has detained 10 princes and dozens of former ministers through its newly formed anti-corruption committee, Saudi-owned Al Arabiya TV reported, citing unnamed sources.

The new committee, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was formed by royal decree hours earlier on Saturday.

Then again, anti-corruption drives in autocratic regimes are not always anti-corruption drives.

on top of that,

Yemeni rebels on Saturday targeted an airport in Saudi Arabia's capital with a ballistic missile, according to Yemen's Houthi-controlled Defense Ministry.

But the missile was intercepted over northeast Riyadh, the Saudi Ministry of Defense said in a statement carried on government-backed Al-Arabiya television.

Yemen's Defense Ministry said the missile attack "shook the Saudi capital" and the operation was successful. The attack was conducted using a Yemeni-made, long-range missile called the Burqan 2H, it said.

The Riyadh airport tweeted that it hadn't been affected.

"Travelers across King Khalid international airport in Riyadh, we assure you that the movement is going on as normal and usual, and trips going according to time," the airport said on Twitter.

Airstrikes later in the day targeted Yemen's capital Sanaa, shaking homes and breaking windows. This is the first night attack on Sanaa in weeks, according to CNN's Hakim al-Masmari from Sanaa.

Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition of states against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who toppled Yemen's internationally recognized government in 2015.

The missile launch on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh was the first time the heart of the Saudi capital has been attacked and represents a major escalation of the ongoing war in the region.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/04/middleeast/saudi-arabia-ballistic-missile/index.html

...and now?

A plane transporting eight Saudi officials including Prince Mansour Bin Muqrin, reportedly crashed near Abha #KSA

— Michael Horowitz (@michaelh992) November 5, 2017

Lots of rumours that Prince Abdulaziz bin Fahd, who was arrested a few weeks ago, is also dead - though not clear if it is the same incident.

KSA now saying Lebanon has declared war against them.

Note: Lebanon has not declared war against them.

Still no clarity on whether Abdulaziz bin Fahd is dead, btw. Some press reports indicate he may have been killed resisting arrest but nothing wholly credible.

I hardly know how to think about politics in an autocratic context... is consolidation of power for Mohammed bin Salman a good thing all things considered? It seems like he's advancing an agenda that we want for Saudi Arabia.

He is currently fighting a murderous war in Yemen, on the verge of declaring war with Lebanon, leading a largely arbitrary blockade of Qatar - in part because he doesn’t like one of their TV stations, is pushing anyone who is hesitant of doubling down in Syria out, etc. Obviously ymmv as to the agenda we want KSA to have but I am not sure the signs are exactly positive.

Mohammed bin Salman is a total idiot who is going to end up starting a huge war hey?

Okay, I was simply looking at some of the purported social reforms. I don't know this area very well.

Lebanon's PM suddenly resigning is quite mind blowing, too:

Lebanon's outgoing prime minister who unexpectedly resigned during a trip to Saudi Arabia met with Saudi King Salman on Monday as speculation continued to swirl over his surprising move.

You don't say. Him stepping back will give way for new elections. Which will put Hezbolah (Iran backed) in the spotlight again, much to KSA's dismay. But it could also be he got a head start, and gave in because he knows what's coming (both for his country - Lebanon is practically bankrupt - and him personally).

If you want 4D political chess, look no further.

Mohammed bin Salman is a total idiot

He consorts with noted geopolitical expert, Jared Kushner.

I recommend the Nov 5 Background Briefing with Ian Masters for expertise here.

MBS+Kushner+Trump could get the US into fighting on the losing side of the Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict. An ostensibly isolationist political movement behind Trump would project us into a centuries old conflict.