The Stock Market

if only it'd just be a burst

there's a theory that when the stock market is strong and keeps "overperforming" there is war on the horizon

i carry more than a passing interest in this since basically my only assets are my retirement savings, which are tied up in the government version of a 401K. i can choose (once per day, before noon, to go into effect the following business day) to allocate my savings in large cap stocks, small cap, international, or bonds. although it's generally recommended (for younger people who can accept more financial risk, esp.) to just stick it all in the large/small caps and don't touch it, i do try to at least pay attention to impending disasters so that i can shift my money to bonds and avoid huge losses. but that can blow up in your face, too. a week before trump's inauguration i shifted everything to bonds, assuming that there was a high probability of trump doing something incredibly stupid that would destabilize the global financial markets. i forgot that traders love trump because they know he'll deregulate, if anything, and so my retirement savings stayed flat while everyone else's jumped up 10% over a month. now i'm back in the game, so to speak, by allocating most of my savings to the large/small caps, but i'm concerned that there will be a crazy day out of nowhere and i'll lose a 1/3 of my savings in one fell swoop. but then again, i can't just stay out of the market for the next 4-8 years.

IT'S SO COOL THAT THE GOVERNMENT DECIDED TO TIE ALL OF OUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS ACCOUNTS TO THE STOCK MARKET

if only we could tie our Social Security accounts to the market as well, am i right!?!?!!

http://www.barrons.com/articles/war-is-hellbut-not-for-the-stock-market-1492702379

Consider how the Dow Jones Industrial Average has performed both before and after the U.S. military became engaged in past foreign hostilities. We focused on seven discrete events since the early 1980s:

• The U.S. invasion of Grenada (1983)

• The U.S. invasion of Panama (1989)

• The first Gulf War (1991)

• The U.S. bombing of Kosovo (1999)

• The U.S. war on Afghanistan (2001)

• The second Gulf War (2003)

• The U.S. bombing of Libya (2011)

...

On average over the month prior to the beginning of these seven events, the Dow fell 0.6%, or 1.4 percentage points lower than the average of all months since 1983 (see chart). But this underperformance was quickly reversed: In the month after the U.S. military entered a conflict, the Dow soared an average 4.0%—3.2 percentage points greater than the average of all months since 1983.

i assume that's something specific to the DJIA and the way it's defined/calculated. there isn't the same jump in other indices.

i do try to at least pay attention to impending disasters so that i can shift my money to bonds and avoid huge losses. but that can blow up in your face, too

don't do this. don't do this. don't do this. buy 30% bonds and 70% in a broad equities tracker. check your account once a year. increase 30 and reduce 70 as you approach retirement.

also that seems to say that the stock market over performs after the war start but under performs beforehand so i don't think an overperforming stock market suggests imminent war

it says it underperforms during

and no, not imminent, it's just a theory

On average over the month prior to the beginning of these seven events, the Dow fell 0.6%, or 1.4 percentage points lower than the average of all months since 1983

don't do this. don't do this. don't do this. buy 30% bonds and 70% in a broad equities tracker. check your account once a year. increase 30 and reduce 70 as you approach retirement.

This.

xp

keep reading

"But this underperformance was quickly reversed: In the month after the U.S. military entered a conflict, the Dow soared an average 4.0%—3.2 percentage points greater than the average of all months since 1983."

right - exactly what i said. before the conflict the stock market went down. after entering the conflict it went back up.

that's at the very start

then it goes down

More than half the DJIA's weighting is [10 stocks](http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html). There isn't a notable volume increase in more representative like SP or NASDAQ; indeed volumes been declining. I think we're just seeing two short covering rallies in Nov and Apr, and when that supports gone and we have our government shutdown we'll see support breaking on those larger indices.

they changed the way they calculated volume - https://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ignore_this_chart/2016/12/whats-the-deal-with-that-intraday-volume-on-the-dow-indu.html

Can't fool all of the people all of the time

I started to wonder today if the ridiculous bull market we have right now is purely the result of all that money pumped into the system after the financial crisis finally starting to exit other asset classes (e.g. real estate) and flow into equities.

A large part of the enthusiasm atm is based on the newly passed tax bill. The anticipation is that the profits currently parked by big multi-national corporations in their foreign subsidiaries will quickly be repatriated to the USA at the much lower tax rates, which could be rolled back if the democrats take Congress and the White House. The thinking is that the vast majority of that money will be used for stock buy-backs or for mergers and acquisitions, since there's little appetite for investing it in new equipment, new factories, or (exploding laughter) higher wages.

Market was growing before the tax bill. Not saying it makes no impact (I don't have the analysis skills to make that determination) but it seems like there are other factors.

Market was growing before the tax bill.

Markets are all about pricing the future. But, yes, the tax bill isn't the only factor in play. It's just a very big factor. If the market started to believe the Fed was going to boost interest rates at an accelerated pace, that could slow it down a fair bit. Right now, exuberance is the order of the day. Even having an unstable semi-literate running the executive won't change that calculation... for now. Expectations about the future are inherently unstable.

It's been growing at an insane rate since trump was elected, but maybe it's all on the assumption of tax breaks and business giveaways

A big infrastructure bill loaded with lots of goodies would just whet their greed even further. That's another business giveaway the market is hoping will land in their lap. In fact, overheating the economy seems to be the Republicans' main strategy for avoiding big losses next November.

http://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

^^ worth a peek for context

mid 2015-2016 on that graph is basically ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

haha i was thinking wonder woman / weezer / wwf wrestling

Watch the bond market (which dwarfs equities). July 2016 was the "top" (lowest yield). There's an important test of the "lows" (high yields) of December 2016 and March 2017 in the next couple weeks.

Also, the yield curve is growing ever flatter: expectations for slowing growth.

Reuters: Chinese agency Dagong cuts U.S. sovereign ratings to BBB+ from A-

The growing reliance on the debt-driven mode of economic development will continue to erode the solvency of the U.S. federal government, the Beijing-based ratings agency said.

“Deficiencies in the current U.S. political ecology make it difficult for the efficient administration of the federal government, so the national economic development derails from the right track,” Dagong said.

“Massive tax cuts directly reduce the federal government’s sources of debt repayment, therefore further weakens the base of government’s debt repayment.”

Levis IPO -- trading at $22.50 per share with 0.75 earnings per share. That's 30x earnings. Earnings growth is completely flat for the last three years. Valuation makes no sense. Tell me why I'm wrong.

The p/e is 30? That’s not unusual

It seems unusual for zero growth. A&F is 23x earnings, Gap is 10x earnings, American Eagle is 13x earnings. Maybe you could say the Levi's brand is stronger.

IPO starved hype

I think that growth is the idea, though. The growth plan is apparently to sell more stuff online instead of at kohl's, convince women to wear jeans instead of yoga pants, sell more shirts somehow, and sell more outside of the US. Buying the naming rights to the 49ers stadium is supposed to help somehow.

My plan is to look at this every morning
https://www.macrotrends.net/2488/sp500-10-year-daily-chart

For morning kicks?

to remind yourself we might be partying like it's 1999?

1999 would have been such a horrible year to put all of your chips in. 15 years to see a return.

Jay-Z weed SPAC y/n

i know this was a year ago but

1999 would have been such a horrible year to put all of your chips in. 15 years to see a return.

― say it with sausages (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, March 21, 2019 6:20 PM (one year ago) bookmarkflaglink

it was pretty bad! one year in 20 is this bad https://github.com/zonination/investing

The only answer to that is you have to put your chips in gradually over time I guess.

No you just wait until the stock market is at it’s lowest point and about to go up. It’s easy.

Time to mortgage house, cars, even family members and put it all in AAPL. P/E ratio is 12.23 for the world's most successful company!

― Mr. Snrub, Sunday, August 23, 2015 11:48 AM (five years ago) bookmarkflaglink

Up 411% since this post, nbd.

couldn't have predicted in 2015 that apple was going to be successful

whaddya got now snrub?

The stock market is easy. Just buy reasonably successful companies and never ever ever ever ever sell until your son goes to college.

AAPL has been the worst since it split.

Learning the wrong lesson here. Bought stock last week for the first time in my life (outside of a 401k from a past job) and am up 5%+ one week later (did Sonos, Shopify, and Redfin).

Wait, what is the wrong lesson?

xxp what if you're ready to retire? the stock market feels like a giant bubble right now

Oh, if it’s always been instilled in me that the stock market is gambling, it’s like having a good first hour in the casino and feeling guilty about it. But if I just hang onto those three for a long while...