It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

i'd like to see him against top competition too but i really think it's all but irrelevant. he's 19, he can have a handicap. AAAA's a natural progression.

so his FB (does he throw 1 or 2) is described as "heavy" - how's the movement?

F-Her's first inning - 11 pitches, 10 strikes, 2 Ks.

"hernandez fans 11"

the curve looks filthy when he let's it drop off the table, but he leaves it up a fair amt even on the strikeouts there, maybe employing it in even counts or after a series of fastballs, i dunno. his change looks like the most underrated pitch in his arsenal - like his fb it tails but it's got quite a bit of sink as well. and to see what his fastball is capable of doing, check out the first pitch shown. inhuman, seriously.

lotsa good stuff, and this was esp. interesting [but you should read the whole post or it might sound way overconfident]:

"The average hitter Felix has faced so far has a season line of .269/.327/.406. Against Felix, they are hitting .153/.191/.153. He has cut the opponents hitters OPS by 53 percent over what they are against the rest of the league. For comparison, Roger Clemens average opponent has a season line of .256/.325/.405, and are hitting .188/.245/.255. Clemens has cut opponents OPS lines by 32 percent. Even adjusting for opponents, Felix has been dominant on a level that no other pitcher in baseball, even Roger Clemens, has matched."

From the USS Mariner:

More Felix Fun
Filed under: Mariners— Dave @ 8:17 am.
Because there’s nothing else on the team that even begins to bring a smile to my face, here’s more musings on the greatness of Felix Hernandez.

Through four starts, King Felix has faced 107 batters and allowed 0 extra base hits. How good is that? He’s tied Mariano Rivera for the fourth longest streak of batters faced without giving up an extra base knock on the season, and if his next start is anything like his first four, he’ll stand alone at the top of the list. Here it is, for those who are curious.

Kyle Farnsworth, 125 batters faced, May 2nd to August 4th
Sergio Mitre, 115 batters faced, May 29th to June 24th
Noah Lowry, 113 batters faced, July 26th to August 17th
Mariano Rivera, 107 batters faced, April 9th to July 2nd
Felix Hernandez, 107 batters faced, August 4th to present

The craziest name on the list (which I got from the awesome Keith Woolner-thanks Keith): Shigetoshi Hasegawa, who faced 76 batters from May 29th to July 29th without allowing an extra base knock. Who knew?

Going back to the past 33 years (all that we have play by play data for), by the way, the record belongs to Bob Welch at 223 batters faced.

Okay, how about something else? The chances of different events occurring in any given at-bat against Felix through his first four starts:

14.95 % chance of a hit
0.00 % chance of an extra base hit
3.74 % chance of a walk
0.93 % chance of being HBP
28.04 % chance of striking out
42.06 % of hitting into a groundout
10.28 % chance of flying out

If you want a comparison, here’s Dwight Gooden’s percentages from his crazy 1985 season, when he won the Cy Young at age 20.

18.59 % chance of a hit
3.66 % chance of an extra base hit
6.48 % chance of a walk
0.19 % chance of being HBP
25.16 % chance of striking out

Opposing batters put up a .201/.253/.270 line against Gooden that season. The average line for the hitters he faced that year was .253/.319/.375. In other words, Gooden knocked 25 percent off a normal hitters line when he faced him. Felix is cutting 53 percent off the average line of the hitters he has faced, turning them into a collection of pitchers. People are hitting .157/.196/.157 against him. That’s… there’s no words for that.

Lets see, what else. Among major league starting pitchers who qualify for the ERA title, here are the league leaders in a few categories, and then Felix’s numbers next to those:

ERA: Clemens, 1.56 - Felix, 1.24
Fielding Independant ERA: Clemens, 2.61 - Felix, 1.60
Component ERA: Clemens, 1.64 - Felix, 0.70 (!)
G/F: Webb, 3.90 - Felix, 4.25
BB/G: Silva, 0.5 - Felix, 1.4
K/G: Peavy, 11.0, - Felix, 10.4
Line Drive %: Lowe, 15.5 percent - Felix, 11.0 percent
Opponents OPS: Clemens, .507 - Felix, .353
WHIP: P. Martinez, 0.89 - Felix, 0.67
Pitches/Inning: Silva, 12.0 - Felix, 13.4 (Felix would rank a measly 2nd in the majors)

Among starting pitchers, his groundball rate is the best in the majors, his strikeout rate is second best, and his walk rate would tie him for sixth best. He’s given up less line drives than anyone else. It’s not even close, actually. His rate of baserunners per innings is off the chart. And he’s doing it with less pitches than everyone other than Carlos “Walks Are A Ticket To Hell” Silva.

How about this one. Game Score is kind of a gimmicky stat developed to summarize a pitchers start in one number (which is almost impossible), but its kinda fun to look at. The highest average game score this year belongs to Roger Clemens (of course) at 66.3. Felix’s average game score? 72.3. His average game score in his last three starts, where he wasn’t on a restrictive pitch count? 77.3.

Through four starts, Felix has been a mutant combination of Randy Johnson’s strikeout dominance, Greg Maddux’s control, Roy Halladay’s efficiency, and Brandon Webb’s groundball rate.

His next start is at home on Friday against the White Sox. Buy tickets. Go to the game. Don’t miss the King in action. Good luck, White Sox.

I'll be at the game Friday. Should be good.

Anyway, you guys can have your rookies because when Halladay comes back I will kick all of your sorry asses.

*23 year-old ChiSox prospect Brian N. Anderson. If he can hit 2 HRs off the "Best Pitching Prospect in baseball", surely he must be equally as impressive? Especially since his Tacos Supremas both came off of Felix's "unhittable" curveballs?

So this Wednesday: King Felix vs. Big Unit in Seattle, I'm gonna try to tune in.

There is no reason for a 19-year-old on a last-place team to go over 100+ pitches in a start after a full season of minor-league work.

MarinerDan (SF, CA): Joe, what is your best prediction for the career path of Felix Hernandez? What's the upside and what is the downside?

Joe Sheehan: I think he'll be one of the five best pitchers in the AL for his next 50 starts or so, then miss some non-trivial amount of time to an arm injury. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

VERSUS RANDY JOHNSON!

MOJO DOJO!

Lots of great quotes in this one:

In the seventh inning against Kansas City, he had a hint of trouble with runners on first and third, two outs and a 3-2 count to Mark Teahen. Catcher Yorvit Torrealba called for a fastball. Hernandez shook him off. Torrealba called for it again and Hernandez shook him off again. "I thought, 'O.K., this is interesting,' " Torrealba said. Hernandez came in with an 84-m.p.h. changeup, striking out Teahen.

"I've caught other young guys before and all they want to do is throw their fastball because that's their best pitch and they can locate it," Torrealba said. "But this guy, for 19 years old, man, that's nice. He's acting like he's been around for a long time."

And yet he still looked pretty good against the Yanqs, his K:BB trend is definitely regressing but WHIP remained solid against one of the most dangerous offensives in the game.

I think I'm gonna go see him on Labor Day.

It was nice of Sterling to jinx Da Unit's no-no, tho - after the bottom of the 5th, he announces that RJ has a no-hitter, and RJ gratiously allows a double in the 6th. Smooooooooth.

-- gygax! (gygax0...), August 22nd, 2005 3:38 PM. (gygax!)

So not only did Bruce Chen outclass King Felix last week, but (as feared) he only lasted 3 innings against the Rangers in Arlington. Can he rebound? I hope so, I took a lot of pix of him in Oakland warming up!

Hmm, how delightfully unnecessary.

http://flickr.com/photos/70149262@N00/sets/72057594085666437/

Shin splints will prevent El Rey from missing his last start of the Spring.

Rob Neyer: (3:33 PM ET ) Sure: he's fine. He made a couple of lousy pitches last week, and on Sunday he gave up two unearned runs that weren't his fault at all. His strikeout rate is excellent, his control's been okay. He's not going to win any awards this season, but I like him just as much today as I did a month ago.

Homeruns vs. Batters Faced:
2005: 1.5% (5/328)
2006: 6.0% (4/67) [The great 2006 home run explosion?]

Pitches per Plate Appearance:
2005: 3.71
2006: 5.97 [Neyer: "his control's been okay". you got that right Robbay!]

BB/9:
2005: 2.45
2006: 3.97 [see above]

Strikeout to Walk ratio:
2005: 3.35
2006: 2.60 [sure his strikeout rate is up but walk rate is up even more]

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS allowed:
2005: .203/.263/.283/.546
2006: .375/.478/.625/1.103 <=YOWZA! probably the most shocking of all the stats IMO

Groundballs vs. Flyballs:
2005: 149/45 = 3.31
2006: 19/14 = 1.36 [ :_( ]

is Felix Hernandez your Dontrelle Willis this year, Steve?

He's not walking too many more batters (maybe one or two more per start compared to last year) but hitters are being a lot more patient with him (taking more pitches) and getting in better swings (hitting more balls in the air). Then again, he's faced some really strong offenses so far this year. Anyway, don't waive him in your fantasy league or anything dumb like that.

Recommendation: "This is a kid who throws 97 [mph], with movement," one scout said. "Why is he throwing the No. 8 hitter a change, curve, change? With his stuff, he can blow guys away. It's the best way, if you can do it. And he can do it." Generally speaking, Hernandez used his curveball as his outpitch last season after first setting up hitters with his fastball. He seems, at times, to be working backward from that formula this year. If that is indeed the case, it is easily corrected.

Total bullshit, but post-worthy.

Mariners Notebook: M's look for signs of Felix tipping pitches

Orioles appeared to guess right too many times

By JOHN HICKEY, P-I REPORTER

BALTIMORE -- Is Felix Hernandez tipping his pitches?

The Mariners aren't sure, but they are concerned that opposing hitters may have spotted something to tell what the next pitch is going to be.

The possibility arose during the five innings Hernandez pitched Saturday night in Camden Yards. He gave up four runs and eventually got the win as Seattle rallied for an 8-6 victory. At the same time, he put 13 men on base and was in constant trouble.

"The answer is that we don't know," manager Mike Hargrove said Sunday. "We were talking about that last night. It sure seems like they took a lot of close breaking pitches.

"And they were right on breaking pitches when it wasn't a breaking pitch situation. It got us wondering."

Orioles hitters were right much of the day on fastballs, too, seemingly more than random chance could account for.

Pitching coach Rafael Chaves said that if Hernandez is tipping, it's not something huge. But like at a professional poker table, even a little tip can be a big advantage to the other side.

"I saw some things that had me wondering," Chaves said. "It was nothing so blatant that you could see it right away, nothing where you could say that's the reason why they did so well against him."

Part of the trouble is that the best way to tell if a pitcher is tipping his pitches is from the batter's perspective. You can't see everything from the dugout. And the video of Hernandez from Saturday's game was exclusively from behind him, looking in at the hitter.

"It's easier here in the big leagues for hitters to pick up something the pitcher might be doing," Chaves said, "especially with all the technology available. We'll be looking at whatever we can. I've got some video work ahead of me."