I Never MENA Hurt You; I Never MENA Make You Cry 2017 (Middle East, North Africa, and Other Geopolitical Hotspots)

pretty otm i can't disagree w/ anything he writes there

i do wonder how long we're going to have to wait into the new administration tho before glenn just frames his critiques as being against the administration as opposed to using trump to make a point about how bad the democrats are

Can we poll this question with him and Morbs?

Ha ha. I think one option has to be "Greenwald will always just use T administration as a foil to make a point about how bad the Democratic party is"

There are ten thousand journalists pointing out why Trump is bad, I think the world can cope with a handful pointing out that Trump is bad and the Democrats should be substantially better on major issues than they have been.

Ya soglasen, comrade.

Of course we can cope. That's what the poll is for.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/05/un-security-council-holds-emergency-meeting-syria-chemical-attack/

Russia has threatened to veto any resolution by the UN security council on a suspected chemical attack in Syria which is feared to have killed dozens of civilians, including children, claiming it is based on "false information."

Meanwhile

"No one — not even President Obama, as far as I could tell — was satisfied with the Obama administration’s approach to the conflict in Syria," Andrew Exum, who was an Obama appointee at the Pentagon, writes for The Atlantic. "But if you assembled all of the Obama administration’s critics in one room, they would not agree on an obvious alternative. The problem is wicked enough to confound easy solutions, and each policy alternative had strategic and moral deficiencies."

45's tweet versus-

After Syria attack, US Ambassador to UN Nikki Haley asks, "How many more children have to die before Russia cares?"

Has Trump really changed his mind re Syria?

fwiw i think the conspiracy theorizing is asinine but i'm not convinced assad ordered this strike. it really doesn't make much sense considering the course of the war so far and how it almost demands a response from trump. nb that doesn't mean that it was a false flag. it could've been ordered by someone lower down in the hierarchy of command. i've seen some ppl speculating that it could've been an airstrike hitting a chemical storage site and releasing the material (nb nb nb i have no idea how plausible this scenario is).

That is the speculation Russia initially put forward but it's apparently thought that most nerve agents would combust if hit by a direct strike.

the Russian explanation looks like serious ass-covering, shifting blame to the *rebels* since it was their warehouse full of chemical weapons etc.

I don't find it v plausible but what do I know.

All I know is that an order from Assad to drop chemicals at this point would be completely illogical and would gain him no advantages in his attempt to regain control of Syria and only jeopardize his hold on power which, for the first time in years, looks like it might be reestablished.

so this happened:
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Jpost-Exclusive-Moscow-surprisingly-says-west-Jerusalem-is-Israels-capital-486336

MOSCOW SURPRISINGLY SAYS WEST JERUSALEM IS ISRAEL'S CAPITAL
BYHERB KEINON APRIL 6, 2017 17:36
No other country in the world recognizes any part of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Makes me wonder what was the secret part of the deal and what, if anything, does this recognition do to benefit the USA or its policies regarding the Mideast?

The mainstream speculation is that he did it to guarantee Russia a place (/the place/?) at the table for upcoming Israel/Palestine negotiations. Who knows what he has agreed to w/ Bibi behind closed doors - they've been meeting a lot recently. It seems like Israel was not prepared for the announcement (they haven't commented yet). Maybe he wants to divert attention from Syria? Maybe he is buying Israeli cooperation/coordination on Syria/ISIS/something else?

Vis-a-vis the US I can't think of how it would actively benefit them. If anything it removes one of the bargaining chips they've kept on the table to use against Israel and if there's no concerted blowback from Arab nations it'll discredit American intelligence who claimed it was too dangerous to do. I think it'll make it more likely that the US moves the embassy but v hard to predict Trump. Maybe Putin was just pissed about the bombing (but he seems a bit too clever to be making major geopolitical decisions out of anger).

All I know is that an order from Assad to drop chemicals at this point would be completely illogical and would gain him no advantages in his attempt to regain control of Syria and only jeopardize his hold on power which, for the first time in years, looks like it might be reestablished.

He's been dropping chemicals and God knows what else for years now, and getting away with it, what makes now any different?

[citation needed?]

The JPost article won't load for me so it might make it clear there but the statement positions West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel in a future context in which East Jerusalem becomes the capital of an independent Palestinian state - which seems different to unilaterally doing so - as Trump was hinting at doing. Xps.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack

SV: "While officials in Jerusalem interpreted this to mean that recognition of west Jerusalem as Israel’s capital will only come once east Jerusalem becomes the capital of a Palestinian state, The Jerusalem Post has learned that Moscow intends this recognition to go into effect immediately."

xp I wouldn't consider that "dropping chemicals... for years now" nor "getting away with it." it was a major event that almost led to direct US intervention that was only staved off bc they agreed to give all their chemical weapons to the Russians.

they agreed to give all their chemical weapons to the Russians.

Yes, that's worked out well, hasn't it?

I don't know how it has worked out. Have there been continual attacks before this week? It has been quiet enough on that front that Kerry called the agreement a success. Is it totally clear what happened this week? Not to me.

Heard a onetime Obama admin guy asserting that Assad gave up "most" of the chemical weapons in that deal, and thus it was still a success. He doubled down on that phrasing when asked a follow-up about how Assad was supposed to have given up all, and then proceeded to say that the Russians must be mad at Assad for having done this now.

Ahmadinejad has submitted his name for the presidential elections.

Banner day for Iran lunatics:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/opinion/why-is-trump-fighting-isis-in-syria.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

This is a time for Trump to be Trump — utterly cynical and unpredictable. ISIS right now is the biggest threat to Iran, Hezbollah, Russia and pro-Shiite Iranian militias — because ISIS is a Sunni terrorist group that plays as dirty as Iran and Russia.

Trump should want to defeat ISIS in Iraq. But in Syria? Not for free, not now. In Syria, Trump should let ISIS be Assad’s, Iran’s, Hezbollah’s and Russia’s headache — the same way we encouraged the mujahedeen fighters to bleed Russia in Afghanistan.

That worked out grand last time, didn't it?

Oh, a Thomas L. Friedman column.

no surprise--Krauthammer is excited about one-off strike in Syria, others not so

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/world/middleeast/why-the-syrian-chemical-weapons-problem-is-so-hard-to-solve.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSyria&action=click&contentCollection=world®ion=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection

didn't link to Krauthamer's column

So Erdogan had unlimited funds, controls the media, silenced opposition, intimidated voters, and still only manages a 51vs49% win in the referendum. Embarrassing.

tbf after almost a century ppl are probably pretty attached to democracy

Shame half of the ppl voted democracy in the bin then.

if u were wondering what the US gov thought about all this
https://twitter.com/CNNTURK_ENG/status/854059951106424836

BREAKING Presidential sources: US President Trump calls Turkish President Erdoğan to congratulate him on #Turkeyreferendum result.

Ugh, though not surprised.

same old, same old

Syria's military said Israel struck a military installation southwest of Damascus International Airport before dawn Thursday, setting off a series of explosions and raising tensions further between the two neighbors.

Apparently seeking to interrupt weapons transfers to the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, Israel has struck inside Syria with increasing frequency in recent weeks, making the war-torn country a proxy theater for Israel's wider war with Iran.

http://time.com/4758928/israel-syria-strikes-iran/

There was this recently as well-

American officials expressed indignation at the Turkish bombing, which killed as many as 20 Kurdish fighters in Syria and, according to the U.S. military, five Kurdish peshmerga troops in a coordinated attack across the border in northern Iraq. According to the Turkish government, both attacks targeted members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which both Ankara and Washington consider a terrorist group.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/04/26/pentagon-expands-rebuke-of-turkey-over-iraq-syria-strikes/

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas will drop its longstanding call for Israel's destruction as well as its association with the Muslim Brotherhood, in a policy document to be issued on Monday, Gulf Arab sources said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-hamas-document-idUSKBN17X1N8

(raises eyebrows)

The Palestinian Islamist group Hamas will drop its longstanding call for Israel's destruction as well as its association with the Muslim Brotherhood, in a policy document to be issued on Monday, Gulf Arab sources said.

But the document, to be announced later on Monday, will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told Reuters.

obviously i'm missing some finer distinction here

But the document, to be announced later on Monday, will still reject Israel's right to exist and back "armed struggle" against it, the Gulf Arab sources told Reuters.

oh, the first point is more of an obstacle than the second. armed struggle is contingent and negotiable, while a right to exist is absolute.

'We don't think it should not exist, we just don't think it should not not exist...'

I wonder, also, if there's some nuance to the Arabic that we're not getting.

it sounds to me like they want to have their cake (the appearance of reasonableness and moderation) and eat it too (still get to pursue same policies without making any real conciliatory gestures)

It seems pretty unambiguous: "But, he said, "unlike Fatah, Hamas does not accept Israel's right to exist on the rest of the land. Hamas's constant position is not to cede any of our historical rights and not to recognize the (Israeli) occupation.""

I kinda thought they were getting weapons from Hezbollah/Syria/Iran, though, or am I completely messing things up?

Well, Hamas is Sunni, Hezbollah is Shia. Why the fuck didn't I fact-check that before I posted... Sorry.

Iran has funded Hamas recently, especially as they've become alienated from the Sunni world (esp in light of Muslim Brotherhood losing their position in Egypt - there seemed like a brief moment that Hamas was going to be able to renew their historical funding from Egypt), but it's unclear to me how extensive that funding is. You'd think it would be less successful than their funding of Hezbollah since it's easier to pass weapons through Syria than through the Sinai but idk exactly what those numbers are. Hezbollah wouldn't fund Hamas directly bc they're both client states.