French elections 2017: completing the hat-trick?

Didn't know where else to put this, but uh-oh...

Serbia wants to annex part of Kosovo using 'Crimea model': president

(Seeing this thread as the most prescient of nationalism/fascisms rise in Europe)

Of=on

AUBERVILLIERS, France — A man clutches a bag filled with cigarettes, hawking his illicit merchandise outside a kebab shop on a nondescript street in the center of Aubervilliers, a town on the outskirts of Paris — “Marlboro, Marlboro! Camel, Camel!”

http://www.politico.eu/article/marine-le-pen-surprise-muslim-islam-supporters-national-front-banlieues/

Change Aubervilliers to Paris (though only like 4km south of Aubervilliers) and you have my neighborhood right now. Descriptively at least. I don't know if people around here are FN supporters.

Is the "Marlboro" thing, a thing elsewhere, like in London or New York? They're trafficking cigarettes brought in from Algeria and Tunisia.

Yes, mostly trafficking from Belarus or the Balkans iirc.

Multiple Xps, Serbs argue Crimea was annexed under the Kosovo model!

Is the "Marlboro" thing, a thing elsewhere, like in London or New York? They're trafficking cigarettes brought in from Algeria and Tunisia.

This used to be a big thing on the Holloway Road, like, 10 years ago but the police cracked down on it hard and I've never seen it since... though I still see some of the guys who used to sell the cigarettes around the area and, yes, Algerians afaict.

Hamon has won the socialist candidacy comfortably over Valls. Another dinosaur bites the dust (after Hollande and Sarko). Hamon more in line w/ Sanders/Corbyn/Podemos than the more centred social democrats. Can't see him stand a chance tho.

the socialists won't have a chance in france for ten years after hollande's performance. it's gonna be le pen against macron, i guess. fillon seems to be finished. his trustworthiness is about as good as that of a second hand car dealer now.

If only Fillon had given his mistress a fake job, instead of to his wife amirite?

You are otm tho. Macron does have something going for him tbf, with a lot of other sides including the Green Party not immediately writing him off, showing some willingness to rally behind him to keep Le Pen at bay. It's... Something.

hope Valls gets a burkini now

i like hamon!! but yeah w macron in the race (and melenchon!) i guess he doesn't stand a chance. dunno tho, these are weird times. centrists aren't winning.

Fillon has said he will withdraw from the presidential race if judges decide to formally accuse him of wrongdoing. It is unclear where this leaves his party as the primaries runner-up Juppé has ruled out stepping in to replace Fillon.

“François Fillon is not in the position of pulling out. He has explained that he will do so if he is officially put under investigation, but he is not officially under investigation,” Juppé said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/francois-fillon-faces-fresh-claims-over-paying-wife-and-children

does anyone have any idea what would happen if Fillon pulled out? what would be the latest point at which another candidate could take his place as the Les Republicans' candidate? it would be something if this led to an 11th hour Sarko comeback, I suppose that's unlikely though.

we live in unlikely times. the whole primary system is so new i wouldn't be surprised if the rules don't speak to this situation. Borgen eat your heart out!

god the stuff that's happening w Fillon is just too delicious.

I've been wondering whether the Socialist Party choosing a hard left candidate makes it more likely that Macron will get through to the second round (because he will be able to pick up a lion's share of centre-left votes in the first round in a way that he may not have done if the Socialists had picked another centrist) or less likely (e.g. if the Socialists had put up a candidate with similar views to Macron then left-wing voters may have rallied behind Macron as the person most likely to succeed - but now they have a genuine alternative in the form of Hamon they may be more tempted to vote for him the first round instead?). I guess the number of people who would have voted for Melenchon in the first round who will now vote for Hamon instead is another factor?

I do have an increasing fear that all this uncertainty an volatility is going to end with Le Pen being elected President, but I don't really know enough about French politics to assess how rational that is.

Le Pen will have to break out of her hard 25%, Whether that's a ceiling or not is unclear, but she's had years to grow beyond that and hasn't. Have things changed since 13/11? And all the candidates this time have such baggage, I can see that remaining the focus of coverage of the election and I don't see Le Pen benefiting from that over any of the others.

I've been wondering whether the Socialist Party choosing a hard left candidate makes it more likely that Macron will get through to the second round (because he will be able to pick up a lion's share of centre-left votes in the first round in a way that he may not have done if the Socialists had picked another centrist) or less likely (e.g. if the Socialists had put up a candidate with similar views to Macron then left-wing voters may have rallied behind Macron as the person most likely to succeed - but now they have a genuine alternative in the form of Hamon they may be more tempted to vote for him the first round instead?). I guess the number of people who would have voted for Melenchon in the first round who will now vote for Hamon instead is another factor?

I'd say it makes it more likely. The left-wingers' vote is going to be split between Hamon and Mélenchon. The Hamon/Mélenchon crowd wouldn't have voted for Macron anyway, IMO.

So is that a win-win? The hard left gets to show up left-centrists, and Macron, the candidate most likely to beat Le Pen, will get through to second round? I don't know, I'm just asking.

As someone who will vote for either Hamon or Mélenchon I don't find this scenario to be a win.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3lZ8B1WIAEpom7.jpg

so the 'trump builds momentum for le pen' narrative seems really counter-intuitive to me. is there any country in the world that's going to have a stronger negative reaction to a loudmouth asshole american presidency than france?

lotta people like him. he's "outside the system". he'll "shake things up". etc

also hey he hates minorities. always a plus with a lot of french voters.

Except this loudmouth asshole fucks with the mainstream media, the SJW-ish leftists, immigrants, and generally with the whole idea of being a decent human being. The FN base loves this. People who feel like mainstream politics are rigged and everyone is in cahoots love this. Trump winning means to them they can win too.

sure, assholes across the world love him, but that's not gonna get you a majority (it didn't even in america...)

Right but if you can make people who don't usually vote to go out and vote, things become less predictable. Especially if your opponent is hated enough (say, Mélenchon for the right, or Fillon for the left).

i would hope at least a few would care about her stealing £300m of the EU's money for her own party -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/01/marine-le-pen-front-national-eu-funds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/07/marine-le-pens-youth-brigade-national-front-young-voters-france/

Most of the conference attendees — waving tricolor flags and sporting “Proud to be French” baseball caps — were middle-aged, a reflection of the party’s core demographic. Yet party leader Marine Le Pen, flanked onstage by a chorus of young women as she sang the national anthem, has also been pitching the FN as the party of choice for alienated French 20-somethings — and the pitch appears to be working.

Hundreds of young people have been elected to local office under her leadership since 2011, and some of the FN’s best-known faces have yet to turn 30. Le Pen’s 26-year-old niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the blond bombshell of the far right, is France’s youngest MP. And then there is David Rachline, a senator and the mayor of Fréjus, who at 28 has just been named Le Pen’s presidential campaign chief.

http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/h_51107257-714x476.jpg

Analysts stress the huge abstention rates among young voters unenthused by any of the political options on offer — 65 percent of young people did not vote in the last regional elections, according to Ipsos estimates. Yet of those aged 18 to 24 who do intend to vote, Le Pen ranks in surveys as the preferred president. In the first round of December’s regional polls, 35 percent of them backed the FN, according to the Ipsos study, when the national average was 28 percent. The ruling Socialists and main opposition Republicans, by comparison, garnered only 21 percent of the youth vote each.

maybe the good news is that the youth vote haven't gotten what they wanted in any of the other recent elections so maybe their hopes will be dashed here too

In the United States, Donald Trump’s nationalist presidential campaign has struggled with so-called millennials.

a lot of this is because whites makes up smaller percentage of millennials, right? 48% of 18-29 year old white voters backed Trump, 43% Clinton. (For whites overall it was 58% Trump, 37% Clinton).

(a up smaller percentage of US millennials, that is)

that's still a 10% shift for white millennials on top of making up a smaller percentage of age cohort

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/795333715186647040/gpl8ZdKA_400x400.jpg

Le Pen’s 26-year-old niece, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, the blond bombshell of the far right, is France’s youngest MP.

I was going to say I assume she's not related to Sylvain Maréchal, but her family background is fairly complicated:

In a book entitled The Conquerors (Les Conquérantes) launched on 18 November 2013, the French journalist Christine Clerc (fr) revealed that Samuel Maréchal is not her biological father.[9] On 7 November 2013, the French weekly news magazine L'Express disclosed the identity of her birth father, Roger Auque, a Mossad agent and investigative journalist who died in September 2014.[9] On 8 November, Marion Maréchal-Le Pen officially announced that she had asked her lawyer to sue L'Express for a "serious invasion of her privacy".[10][11]

(I was reading about Sylvain Maréchal earlier, y'see)

The media have made their choice

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3_4Z8CXAAA3qfU.jpg

(it's about the broadcast of the candidates' meeting, caption from left to right: full live broadcast, partial live, delayed, nothing)

does anyone have any idea what would happen if Fillon pulled out? what would be the latest point at which another candidate could take his place as the Les Republicans' candidate? it would be something if this led to an 11th hour Sarko comeback, I suppose that's unlikely though.

Presumably just got even more unlikely...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38890993

maybe i'm just shook by brexit and trump but the right-wing firewall against le pen appears to be dissolving into thin air :/

I think there's a fair degree of wishful thinking going on here, but it's possible:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/08/opinions/trump-european-populism-andelman/index.html

I'd like to think so. This tho:

Closing all frontiers and barring the desperate and needy is anathema to broad swaths of the French electorate. Moreover, the French are hardly inclined to make their own vast domestic Muslim population feel even more disenfranchised

is like, not true at all. "Broad swathes of the French electorate" don't give a shit what happens to Muslims or immigrants, I'd say in roughly the same proportion as in America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/28/world/europe/france-albi-french-towns-fading.html

The visible decline of so many historic city centers is intertwined with these anxieties. Losing the ancient French provincial capital is another blow to Frenchness — tangible evidence of a disappearing way of life that resonates in France in the same way that the hollowing out of main streets did in the United States decades ago. A survey of French towns found that commercial vacancies have almost doubled to 10.4 percent in the past 15 years. As these towns have declined, voters have often turned sharply rightward. Albi is traditionally centrist, but the same conditions of decline and political anxiety are present, too.

Turn a corner in Albi, and you’ll pass the last school inside the historic center, abandoned a few years ago. Down another street is the last toy store, now closed, and around a corner is the last independent grocery store, also shuttered. Walk down the empty, narrow streets on some nights and the silence is so complete that you can hear your footsteps on the stones.

“If nothing is done, a substantial part of the French soul will perish, taking with it more than half the French population,” the businessman Charles Beigbeder wrote in Le Figaro recently, calling for a “Marshall Plan” for “peripheral France.”

Exactly like the UK then.

Though the sharp turn rightwards is debatable. As it probably is in France.

Still, we'll be okay, we're Brexiting!

I haven't been to Albi, had the idea of going this last summer when I was in Toulouse for a week, but the weather was off. It sounds like the problem is familiar to Americans: they opened a mall outside the town center, and many people prefer going there, as it is in the States.

I stayed away from Fillon's rally today, for which it sounds like right-wing Catholics were bussed in to hear (unsurprisingly nothing about it at mass this morning, since my church, mostly African immigrants, aren't the Catholics that the LR want). The weather's awful today, but that seems appropriate.

‪Fillon's capacity for self-important melodrama is just limitless‬

That is a pretty good article, despite my usual skepticism of Lilla's understanding of Europe.

Once I naturalize here (hopefully this next calendar year) I may well vote right, whereas I would never do so in the usa. I wouldn't have voted for Fillon because he's just another corrupt rich scumbag, but an anti-global-capital right (albeit one who supports gay rights) could attract my vote.

Are you ok with it being rabidly anti-immigration? Because that and opposition to gay rights are pretty much the only things this right offers that the left doesn't.

Portrait of Marion in that piece uncomfortably fawning imo.

I favor quite limited immigration, yes. I am not anti-EU though.

A useful reminder:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/a-russian-bank-gave-marine-le-pens-party-a-loan-then-weird-things-began-happening/2018/12/27/960c7906-d320-11e8-a275-81c671a50422_story.html

And I hope you're not seriously thinking of voting for the RN or Philippot, Euler.

No, I wouldn't vote that far right, and probably wouldn't vote right in a national election, but the mess that the PS is making of my quartier gives me considerable doubt about immigration and thus about how "the left" can be trusted to manage integration.

Are you referring to the Goutte d’or?

basically, L@ Ch@pe11e more particularly, but the Goutte d'Or is a five minute at most walk. we've been sacrificed by the city and by the state to have minimal police presence / disruption so that the migrants come here and not to the fancier parts of the city. meanwhile, the resulting lawlessness leads to more and more stabbings, drugs, street harassment of women (of my twelve year old daughter every day, for instance), not to mention filthy sidewalks and streets.

all these things lead me toward the right (plus I'm a practicing Catholic, one who favors gay rights (since the Church is obviously gay) but who is otherwise "pro-family". fuck the rich now and forever though.

What’s Wauquiez stance on gay rights? Can’t remember now how vocal he was during the marche pour tous saga (although I can pretty much imagine). Not that Wauquiez has any real conviction of his own.

I don't want to minimize your concerns, Euler, because I've witnessed them myself and, having grown up in Canada, I am consistently shocked by the street harassment my wife has had to endure over the years in France – it's frankly less of a safe country for women (and especially teenage girls) than Romania – but let's not forget that ex-ministre de l'Intérieur Nicolas Sarkozy aka Mr Kärcher abolished the police de proximité, among other things, which has only served to aggravate matters. The right has fuelled its (dog-whistling) obsession with security without ever doing anything about it. I daresay letting violence fester benefits them because they're perceived as the sole rational solution by default, just by virtue of their rhetoric.

That said, the PS and LRM haven't done shit about it either and I do agree with some on the right when they express disgust with the series of light sentences the perpetrator of the Strasbourg attacks received prior to his supposed 'pétage de plombs', for example – 'multirécidiviste' doesn't even begin to describe such a man. But what is to be done then? Increase the prison population, which is already bursting at the seams? Further empower the police, which is shameless in its racial profiling and a recruiting ground for the RN? Nobody has the balls to tackle the banlieues directly by openly discussing France's institutional racism – because the modèle républicain d'intégration is a fundamentally flawed system, to put it mildly – and so nothing changes. Despite the 'communautariste' boogeyman, there's no dialogue between communities, no willingness to improve anything, just the same finger-pointing over and over again. 'You need to allow yourself to be assimilated' is a mantra that can only end in violence, especially when it's aimed at the heirs of a colonized people, and doubly so when they're not even really allowed to assimilate in the first place. There are countless stories of 'good Arabs' and/or 'good Africans' who are still viewed as exogenous even though they're third generation French citizens and don't know the first thing about the so-called 'bled'. Ironically, that's the ideal, right? Saying farewell to your history forever and embracing the totally-neutral-and-totally-universal-French-family.

One last thing: I have been insulted by French people of Arab descent while in France simply because I'm white. 'Sale Français', they called me, which I found quite rich. My wife has been repeatedly called a 'sale pute française' by street harassers, so I'm very much aware that it goes both ways. But one way is considerably more violent than the other, because it has the option of opening up public discourse to a genuine confrontation with the nation's assimilationist model, and chooses not to for almost religious reasons, kind of like how so many Americans worship the US constitution. So as things currently stand, I'm going to continue pinning the blame on France's political caste: left, centre and right (and in that order). Sorry for the free-form rant, but it's something that drives me up the wall.

As for Wauquiez, I'm pretty sure he's a low-key homophobe. Like, he doesn't agree with the 'gay agenda', 'totally understands' where the Manif pour tous is coming from, and 'draws the line' at surrogacy or some such.

Hmm that’s another debate but does opposing surrogacy equal latent homophobia ?
Anyway, that’s a great take on the situation. I haven’t lived in France for the last 20 years (but I am French) but I never really hear local commentators try to untangle the clusterfuck of racial/community relations un France.
Re. Wauquiez - this guy will turn whichever way the wind blows. Because of Macron’s ascent, he’s now decided to go for the far-right demographic for whom RN is still too vulgar. A truly despicable scumbag

yeah I don’t know how to address race here. we’re immigrants who get assailed sometimes by français de souche for having American-accented French, and by arabes for being...non arabe. Here in my quartier one passes the buck : the mairies of the 18th and the 10th blame Hidalgo, who blames Macron, who says nothing. locals blame cops for being unwilling to bust heads, who blame judges for letting people off with light sentences. the prisons breed daech. Meanwhile it’s Obonoland and her left says we should welcome all the migrants here, who hustle contraband and fight in the streets. Meanwhile I work in the 5th and 6th and it’s gorgeous. And we live in the city, not the 93! rents are sky high here. I really don’t understand.

I'm a bit out of touch as I don't live in France anymore, but I did for many years and while I was there I was always struck by how incredibly corrosive the structurally high unemployment was and what a range of knock-on effects it has. Obviously it's toughest when you're trying to find work but also I knew so many people who were miserable in their public service jobs but who were too scared to try something different for fear of losing their job security. Apart from making everyone miserable that obviously also has the effect of making the whole system less flexible.

And of course there's the lethal combination of racism and unemployment which ironically makes integration even harder than it is in comparable countries despite France's ideological preference for integration over multiculturalism.

I have no idea what the solution is - the centre-right says there are too many financial and other burdens placed on employers wanting to employ people which may be right, but which doesn't necessarily mean you have to introduce more precarity into the system as in the US etc. - maybe there's something to be said for the Danish flexicurity model...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2021/06/08/ss-2021-6-8-14-5_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bq0RglTN43wyGR-NQABDM7ErkcnEMN6jgniYeqwz6a86k.png?imwidth=480

u loves to see it!

Does anyone know how the 49.3 motion came to exist?

Awful stuff today. Sending my solidarity to french ilxors protesting.

The 18th Brumaire of Emmanuel Macron.