well
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 04:42 (seven years ago) link
amazing 4th/OT. would've been kinda sad end if that had bounced out. this division is p nuts.
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 05:27 (seven years ago) link
oh my god the ending to that game
I know Kubiak is getting destroyed for trying the 62-yard FG, but I feel like (in Denver) it was probably the right call, wasn't it?
― frogbs, Monday, 28 November 2016 14:05 (seven years ago) link
i have thought about this probably too much. kicking the FG gives outcome probabilities of something like 20% denver wins, 75% kc wins, vs punting which gives denver maybe 2% to win and kc say 25%. the decision is about the division standings. i think denver's goal has to be to catch up with oakland in 1st more than it is to keep level with kansas city in 2nd. so i think the only thing that should factor into the decision is the 20% vs 2% for denver to win. i believe it was the right call.
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 14:38 (seven years ago) link
also long FG try has to be higher % than going for 1st down from 4th and 10 in this game
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 14:41 (seven years ago) link
75% of a KC win after missing seems pretty high. only 1:08 (KC did have one timeout) and they were at the 44-yard line...KC would still need to pick up about 30 yards to get a 45-yard FG try.
― frogbs, Monday, 28 November 2016 14:45 (seven years ago) link
they got possession on the denver side of the field. even so, 75% prob a bit too high, just illustrative.
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 14:56 (seven years ago) link
when you miss a field goal, does the other team get possession at the line of scrimmage or at the spot of the kick? I thought it was like an incomplete pass. I guess I wasn't paying too much attention to the broadcast. Because if they were in Denver territory to start off, then yeah, maybe 75% isn't too far off. Still have to get a first down I guess.
KC's WR numbers still seem pretty bad, I would imagine going 40+ yards after a punt with a little over a minute and one TO would be very difficult for them. Isn't there a website that exists solely to analyze decisions like this?
― frogbs, Monday, 28 November 2016 15:23 (seven years ago) link
yeah it's spot of the kick. kc were moving the ball a little better in OT because the defenses were gassed so it would've been a little easier than you might think but still unlikely. again, the way i would make that decision i don't think kc's chance to win the game is relevant, a tie does so little for denver.
― Roberto Spiralli, Monday, 28 November 2016 15:31 (seven years ago) link
Tyreek Hill is really good, but never forget that he beat the shit out of his pregnant girlfriend.
― Mr. Snrub, Monday, 28 November 2016 16:24 (seven years ago) link
that's ok, his team and commissioner have already forgotten it for you
― Neanderthal, Monday, 28 November 2016 22:43 (seven years ago) link
this fucking ubiquitous thing of having two dickheads shout ignorant takes at each other is what's actually going to kill the nfl
― Roberto Spiralli, Tuesday, 29 November 2016 02:55 (seven years ago) link
Here was a take on how the Cowboys came to draft Dak in the 4th round.
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/who-was-driving-force-that-brought-dak-prescott-to-cowboys-and-why-did-it-take-so-long-013907957.html
― earlnash, Tuesday, 29 November 2016 10:43 (seven years ago) link