The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

beyond that the question in the first debate about "will you accept the results of this election"

I'm not sure if Hillary dropped the "He's just upset that he's losing to a girl" line to his face yet, but if it were possible to bet on her saying it tomorrow, I would.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

has anyone looked at this recently

https://i.imgur.com/qmhFBDe.jpg

I know the specter of Bachmann looms large over the state's national image but I don't understand how anyone who has even a passing familiarity with MN would consider the state anything less than "Somewhat more Democratic"* considering that it has voted for the Democrat in the last 10 elections.

PS: When it comes to presidential elections, the state is much more Democratic than the country as a whole. It has been for my entire life.

They're so Democratic they have their own special Democratic Party which I find extremely endearing

538 suddenly very bullish on Senate flipping - D52-48R is now their most likely outcome (on Now-Cast), with D holding Nevada and making seven gains. No one else is saying this, 50-50 is the story nearly everywhere else. Huff Post down the other end of the scale saying 59% GOP control because "we don't have any polling data from Indiana". Huh?

we voted for mondale iirc?

xpost

But not McGovern!

538 suddenly very bullish on Senate flipping - D52-48R is now their most likely outcome (on Now-Cast), with D holding Nevada and making seven gains. No one else is saying this, 50-50 is the story nearly everywhere else. Huff Post down the other end of the scale saying 59% GOP control because "we don't have any polling data from Indiana". Huh?

― Michael Jones, Tuesday, October 18, 2016 11:29 AM (eight minutes ago

nowcast is clickbait, not a projection system

Ah, 2018, already wearying.

http://www.businessinsider.com/curt-schilling-2018-senate-2016-10

In that he has assholes supporting him I don't doubt, but given ALL the obvious shit he's done and spewed, is he seriously going to try and coast on his bloody ankle or something?

lol: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/10/17/in-deep-red-florida-signs-of-trouble-for-donald-trump/92289190/

Oh my god Schilling is not going to make it out of the primary

this is going to be hilarious

nowcast is clickbait, not a projection system

Well, ok - Polls-Plus is almost as bullish. Six flip and NC is a dead heat.

xp v psyched for him to go down in flames

for a significant- a decisive- bloc of the republican party, working with a democratic president, hell, even acknowledging the legitimacy of a democratic president, is treason

Yeah that. And note that it wasn't so long ago that Republican presidential candidates were trying to outdo each other on the number of Federal departments they would immediately abolish. Me, I'd like there to still be an EPA, for example, however impotent and imperfect it may be. Even very little progress is preferable to sliding backwards.

Trompians and Ryanoids may hate each other, but they both hate government and want to see it obstructed. I'm happy to agree that government is a clunky and imperfect machine. But for some at-risk entities, it is very nearly the only machine working on their behalf. One group of people wants to at least try to use it, mostly for good. Another group of people wants to throw shoes and wrenches into it.

Personally I am not expecting a transformation or a sudden shift toward socialist utopia. I would regard NOT sliding backwards, on a thousand fronts, as sufficient progress.

Voting's taking place in many states already.

I get to vote tomorrow. Can't wait to have it over and done with.

So the hope is that this Rick Wilson tease will cease with the release of something today or tomorrow? If it isn't deployed in front of this last debate is it still something we should expect? Only asking here because I am not as on top of things as most of you or following anyone on Twitter.

DFW's favorite person John Ziegler is calling BS on it:

https://twitter.com/Zigmanfreud/status/788405273916420096

ok so apparently Trump's email servers were running on Windows Server 2003 on IIS 6 unpatched? if so someone has to have hacked it by now?

looks like russ feingold is going to win his seat back

new wikileaks podesta emails show a highly efficient & coordinated campaign operation and a candidate who is an effective executive, also aide huma abedin is like super smart and competent

honestly I am really astonished that anyone is trying to wring a scandal out of the tedious sausage-making of a campaign, but otoh WETWORKS!!!

Dilbro is about to shut down Twitter, watch out folks

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151981022076/is-twitter-shadowbanning-me

As a patriot, I would feel obligated to help kill Twitter. (And you wouldn’t want to bet against me.)

About that.

given his diet of McDonalds and KFC buckets I'm guessing Trump is already quite familiar with the "nuclear oppo dump."

I get to vote tomorrow. Can't wait to have it over and done with.

I'm voting on Election Day. It's a ritual, like going to the record store on a Tuesday used to be.

im not sure i follow the reasoning that necessarily puts the next oppo release prior to the debate. wouldn't it be more effective to let the debate news cycle play out & then hang a millstone around his neck without giving him the opportunity to respond on live primetime tv?

Speaking for myself, that's also what I was asking. I'm not sure which is a better strategy.

yea im wondering if post-debate is better. it was amazing to hear so many commentators talk about how "trump didn't win new voters but he stopped the bleeding" after the 2nd debate

i'd think that if the oppo dump is being coordinated to time with the debate, they may have learned their lesson from Trump's mostly failed but certainly distracting stunt before the second debate. doing it immediately before or a day or two after the debate doesn't seem like a bad idea. but yeah who knows what it is or even if it's real!

can't believe this dumbshit e-mail thing is back in the headlines again just because someone used the term "quid pro quo" in an e-mail

I can't believe you just used the phrase 'quid pro quo' in your post, what are you hiding

if it's as bad as everyone's suggesting I can only guess it's him on tape bragging about having sex with minors / xpost

that cilizza article is garbage, that guy is such a fucking dork, he's been doing these stupid "why ____ is a BIG problem for democrats" pieces for years

Whatever entity or entities have been timing these stories, so far it's clear to me that they are some pretty fucking savvy media players. (NYT leak was to a reporter who was known to check snail mail; WaPo tips came to the famously diligent Farenthold.)

This may be a big experimental space! What we may see is a test - in the real world and in real time - of whether immediately pre-debate (get the information in front of a large audience) is better than post-debate (use it to eclipse potentially favorable debate coverage, and re-win a media cycle).

http://www.theonion.com/article/debate-organizers-set-aside-first-15-minutes-whate-54318

The newest oppo is going to leak directly to the moderators' earpieces 15 minutes into the debate.

Dammit, beat me to that link:

“Though covering the candidates’ positions on subjects like immigration and entitlement reform is critical, we’ve also blocked off an entire 15-minute segment at the beginning to discuss whatever bombshell information comes out about Trump before Wednesday night,” said moderator Chris Wallace, adding that the allotted time would be dedicated solely to scrutinizing any new accusations of criminal conduct from Trump’s past or outrageous statements uttered by the candidate himself that emerge in the next 36 hours.

JUST what we needed.

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/oct/18/michael-moore-surprise-donald-trump-documentary?CMP=twt_gu

and tell NRO the news!

The newest oppo is going to leak directly to the moderators' earpieces 15 minutes into the debate.

"Mr. Trump, in this recently-released video, you're shown ripping a baby to pieces, guzzling its blood, then using its head for a pickup soccer game with naked crack whores. What would you say to those who would say that this says negative things about your temperament and your ability to lead this nation?"

"Chris, First of all let me say that whatever I may have done - and I'm not saying I did anything, by the way - whatever I may have done is far less dangerous for the country than the bad, sad, very-against-baby crimes committed by the Clinton crime syndicate and their allies in the crooked media...."

Oscar-winner Michael Moore dives right into hostile territory with his daring and hilarious one-man show, deep in the heart of TrumpLand in the weeks before the 2016 election.

oh no

dear god, why

no one's going to give a fuck about this

Imagine the double bill of this and Oliver Stone's W.

introduced by Joseph Wilson

W is actually a good movie

I like this NRO commenter:

Ralph DuMont
It is stupid and counter-productivto a strong republic to make voting easier. People should have to actually expend some time and energy to cast a ballot. The lazy and stupid people who are held by the hand so they can vote should have to hoof it on their own. No reason absentee ballots are another idiotic feature of our elections. If you can't make time in your day to cast a vote, I don't think you should vote. Absentee ballots should require a good reason--illness or infirmity, unavoidable absence on the day of the election.

I stood in line for four hours to waste my vote on Mondale in 1984, with a lot of people who also felt it important enough to stand in line. If you're too lazy to stand in line to vote, the hell with you.

if I voted for Mondale thirty-three years ago, maybe I'd be pissed too.

dear god, why

it's his thang. he does what he wants to do. we can't tell him who to sock it to.