The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

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I dug this:

The press has gotten extremely comfortable with describing a Trump electorate that simply doesn’t exist. Cottle describes his supporters as “white voters living on the edges of the economy.” This is, in nearly every particular, wrong.

[...]

The American press is overwhelmingly made up of left-of-center white people who live in large cities and have internalized very strong anti-racist norms. As a result, it tends to be composed of people who think of racism as a very, very serious character defect, and who are riddled with anxiety about being perceived as out of touch with “real America.” “Real America” being, per decades of racially charged tropes in our culture, white, non-urban America.

So in comes Donald Trump, a candidate running on open white nationalism whose base is whites who — while not economically struggling compared with poor whites backing Hillary Clinton and doing way better economically than black or Latino people backing Clinton — definitely live in the “real America” which journalists feel a yearning to connect to and desperately don’t want to be out of touch with.

Describing these people as motivated by racial resentment, per journalists’ deep-seated belief that racism is a major character defect, seems cruel and un-empathetic, even if it’s supported by extensive amounts of social scientific research and indeed by the statements of Trump’s supporters themselves.

So it becomes very, very tempting to just ignore this evidence and insist that Trump supporters are in fact the wretched of the earth, and to connect them with every possible pathology of white America: post-industrial decay, the opioid crisis, labor force dropouts, rising middle-age mortality rates, falling social mobility, and so on. This almost always fails (globalization victims and labor force dropouts are less likely to support Trump, per Rothwell), but if there’s even a small hint of a connection, as when Rothwell found a correlation between Trump support and living in an area with rising white mortality, you’re in luck. If you can squint hard enough, the narrative will always survive.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 15 October 2016 19:27 (seven years ago) link

https://vine.co/v/5X3LKwvPXqX

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 15 October 2016 19:30 (seven years ago) link

The vox piece linked in by kingfish is very good.

SO SO tired of hearing of the poor poor displaced coal miners, or whatever, as the driving force behind the current mess. It's somehow simultaneously more nuanced... and much simpler.

go get your winebox (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, 15 October 2016 20:37 (seven years ago) link

I rarely comment on any threads not about AD&D or terrible names of any kind (people, records, etc) but I read this thread constantly. I am most always very happy to be exposed to the vox piece, as well as much other writing linked by posters here. As foul as this season has been, I've appreciated you all.

great Canadian prog-psych debut from 1969 (Sparkle Motion), Saturday, 15 October 2016 20:48 (seven years ago) link

some weird syntax there, you all get it, peace

great Canadian prog-psych debut from 1969 (Sparkle Motion), Saturday, 15 October 2016 20:48 (seven years ago) link

fuck these pieces of shit, i hope the DOJ comes down hard on indiana. confiscating 45K ballots because of 10 bad applications, jesus

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/15/group-accuses-mike-pence-of-voter-suppression-after-state-police-raid-registration-program-in-indiana/

intheblanks, Saturday, 15 October 2016 21:21 (seven years ago) link

well so much for the ugliness ending on election day, I suppose. we'll be hearing things like "rigged" and "never again" for months, until the Trump diehards either fly into the tail of Hale Bopp or drink hemlock or whatever it is cults do these days.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 15 October 2016 21:46 (seven years ago) link

That Vox piece is great, though recognizing this whole election as a referendum on white nationalism does not put me at ease.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 15 October 2016 21:52 (seven years ago) link

guys Trump is actually winning

http://americanlookout.com/trump-internal-polling-analyst-i-couldnt-be-happier-charts/

Neanderthal, Saturday, 15 October 2016 21:58 (seven years ago) link

That took me into a twitter wormhole of inhabitants of an alternate universe, thank you.

great Canadian prog-psych debut from 1969 (Sparkle Motion), Saturday, 15 October 2016 22:06 (seven years ago) link

You can't beat "Trump implies Hillary Clinton is on drugs" on CNN's news ticker.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z2Zlf3MX1k

clemenza, Saturday, 15 October 2016 22:07 (seven years ago) link

(she's not) (he is)

difficult listening hour, Saturday, 15 October 2016 22:11 (seven years ago) link

If anything, I'm surprised he's only implying.

clemenza, Saturday, 15 October 2016 22:12 (seven years ago) link

gonna be interesting to see the fever swamp people who are *certain* that Dems steal every election via corpses and "illegals" 'validated' by the orange idiot with the world's biggest megaphone

not looking forward to that

serge thoroughgoods (will), Saturday, 15 October 2016 22:43 (seven years ago) link

yeah i'm sure his douchecamisados will be insufferable for a while

Neanderthal, Saturday, 15 October 2016 23:01 (seven years ago) link

The only way to prove them wrong would be for Clinton to drop out. Only then will they be convinced it is not rigged. She should still be thrown in jail of course, just to be safe.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 15 October 2016 23:35 (seven years ago) link

man, if trump had any organizational capacity as a human at all, i'd be seriously worried. as it stands i'm still worried, but mainly about armed lone idiots and small groups of them.

intheblanks, Saturday, 15 October 2016 23:49 (seven years ago) link

There's been 8 years of the assumption that the president is fundamentally illegitimate, including denying him the right to pick a Supreme Court judge - if the GOP is uncomfortable about this getting ratcheted up a few more notches (and by and large they probably aren't) they have only themselves to blame.

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 16 October 2016 00:04 (seven years ago) link

Greetings from Idaho Falls

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/787306707579834368

pplains, Sunday, 16 October 2016 00:22 (seven years ago) link

Ned, good looking out.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 16 October 2016 00:51 (seven years ago) link

The fuck, anyone else see this? Was this posted?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-intelligence-briefing-russia-20161014-story.html

Apologies, but I will post the whole thing, because it begs disbelief:

Former senior U.S. national security officials are dismayed at Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's repeated refusal to accept the judgment of intelligence professionals that Russia stole files from the Democratic National Committee computers in an effort to influence the U.S. election.

The former officials, who have served presidents in both parties, say they were bewildered when Trump cast doubt on Russia's role after receiving a classified briefing on the subject and again after an unusually blunt statement from U.S. agencies saying they were "confident" that Moscow had orchestrated the attacks.

"It defies logic," retired Gen. Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency, said of Trump's pronouncements.

Trump has assured supporters that, if elected, he would surround himself with experts on defense and foreign affairs, where he has little experience. But when it comes to Russia, he has made it clear that he is not listening to intelligence officials, the former officials said.

"He seems to ignore their advice," Hayden said. "Why would you assume this would change when he is in office?"

The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Several former intelligence officials interviewed this week believe that Trump is either willfully disputing intelligence assessments, has a blind spot on Russia, or perhaps doesn't understand the nonpartisan traditions and approach of intelligence professionals.

In the first debate, after intelligence and congressional officials were quoted saying that Russia almost certainly broke into the DNC computers, Trump said: "I don't think anybody knows it was Russia that broke into the DNC. I mean, it could be Russia, but it could also be China. It could also be lots of other people. It also could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds, okay?"

During the second presidential debate, Trump ignored what a U.S. government official said the candidate learned in a private intelligence briefing: that government officials were certain Russia hacked the DNC. That conclusion was followed by a public and unequivocal announcement by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Department of Homeland Security that Russia was to blame.

"Maybe there is no hacking," Trump said during that debate.

"I don't recall a previous candidate saying they didn't believe" the information from an intelligence briefing, said John Rizzo, a former CIA lawyer who served under seven presidents and became the agency's acting general counsel. "These are career people. They aren't administration officials. What does that do to their morale and credibility?"

Former acting CIA director John MacLaughlin said all previous candidates took the briefings to heart.

"In my experience, candidates have taken into the account the information they have received and modulated their comments," he said. Trump, on the other hand, "is playing politics. He's trying to diminish the impression people have that [a Russian hack of the DNC] somehow helps his cause."

On Thursday, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California, said information she received has led her to conclude that Russia is attempting "to fix this election." She called on Trump and elected officials from both parties "to vocally and forcefully reject these efforts."

Trump has consistently adopted positions likely to find favor with the Kremlin. He has, for instance, criticized NATO allies for not paying their fair share and defended Russian President Vladimir Putin's human rights record.

"It's remarkable that he's refused to say an unkind syllable about Vladimir Putin," Hayden said. "He contorts himself not to criticize Putin."

Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, said in the vice-presidential debate last week that the United States should "use military force" against the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.

Trump disagreed. Rather than challenge Assad and his Russian ally, Trump said in the second debate, the United States should be working with them against the Islamic State. "Assad is killing ISIS. Russia is killing ISIS. Iran is killing ISIS," he said, using an acronym for the Islamic State. Russia and Syria have mostly been targeting opposition groups as well as civilians trapped in Aleppo - not the Islamic State.

"That's the Syrian, Russia, Iranian narrative," Hayden said of Trump's assertions.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 16 October 2016 01:39 (seven years ago) link

Do *not* fuck with Mormons (i.e. don't be a profane, adulterous prick) if you need Idaho and Utah. The rationale for McMullin's candidacy should be crystal clear by now, I hope.

Those twitpics don't surprise me one bit.

El Tomboto, Sunday, 16 October 2016 01:51 (seven years ago) link

my catholic friends are apparently feeling mcmullin fever now too

j., Sunday, 16 October 2016 01:54 (seven years ago) link

always fuck with mormons

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Sunday, 16 October 2016 01:59 (seven years ago) link

Yuck/LOL: http://nymag.com/thecut/2016/10/hillary-clintons-locker-room-talk.html

schwantz, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:04 (seven years ago) link

Ned, good looking out.

Told ya.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:21 (seven years ago) link

Well, fortunately for Trump I guess, McMullin is only on the ballot in two of the states where Mormons make up over 5% of the population: Utah, 68.10% and Idaho, 26.41%.

(of the remainder, he is eligible as a write-in in Arizona, 6.14%; Nevadan, Wyomingite and Hawaiian LDS members will have to figure out another option, perhaps even one that favors LGBTQ rights).

El Tomboto, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:30 (seven years ago) link

No he's on the ballot in a number of states, not just those two. He is aiming at write-ins in a lot of others, true.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:30 (seven years ago) link

Full breakdown here:

https://www.evanmcmullin.com/vote

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:31 (seven years ago) link

On ballot in 11 total, write-ins in most of the remaining, 7 states unsure.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:32 (seven years ago) link

(Ah wait I get your point, re Mormons in particular. Anyway.)

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:32 (seven years ago) link

What a year.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 16 October 2016 02:36 (seven years ago) link

The drug test comment...that's the first thing he's said in a while that actually surprised me by being more ott than his usual petulalant outbursts. This is a legitimately crazy person.

I overheard CNN at the airport today and it sounds like he's resorted to full-on screaming at his rallies now. The tantrums are fucking scary when an adult-sized baby is denied something for the first time in 70 years.

People Have No Idea The Support (Old Lunch), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:02 (seven years ago) link

I could see McMullin rising to the top of the GOP in 4 years if he does well enough in this election (which basically means, winning Utah). I don't agree with like, half his views on things but at least he's someone who doesn't fill me with disgust.

akm, Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:07 (seven years ago) link

Also, tangential but I can't get this sketch out of my mind lately. I don't know if it was intentional (although I doubt it was because he didn't act like such a bizarre, brain-damaged cartoon twenty years ago), but the body language reminds me so much of Trump, particularly after watching Donnie hold his mic like a doofus on Sunday every time he prepared to interrupt Clinton.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AhgyXtZQgU

People Have No Idea The Support (Old Lunch), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:08 (seven years ago) link

Donald Trump just dumped Ohio GOP chief Matt Borges
(No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio)

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:14 (seven years ago) link

2. Trump listened to Borges.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:23 (seven years ago) link

*switches from building wall to building library of babel*

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:24 (seven years ago) link

It's like the last days of a regime over there.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:31 (seven years ago) link

Was it covered that Nate Silver is officially done, and is straight trolling now?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-watch-new-hampshire-for-signs-of-a-trump-comeback/

El Tomboto, Sunday, 16 October 2016 03:41 (seven years ago) link

Well, he does have to keep himself *somehow* entertained in these last few weeks

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Sunday, 16 October 2016 04:21 (seven years ago) link

where by "comeback" nate obviously means "loses by a somewhat less spectacular margin, but loses overwhelmingly anyway"

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 16 October 2016 04:23 (seven years ago) link

https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/787425879492296704

this whole event is really something

mh 😏, Sunday, 16 October 2016 05:15 (seven years ago) link

xpost Silver makes it clear this is mostly just idle horserace speculation, and most of the discussion is about why the level of uncertainty is significant when considering polling numbers. Maybe not quite a direct body-blow aimed at Clinton's campaign, on Silver's part.

viborg, Sunday, 16 October 2016 06:09 (seven years ago) link

Now going after "rigged" Saturday Night Live

frogbs, Sunday, 16 October 2016 13:15 (seven years ago) link

Time to retire the boring and unfunny show.

First sensible thing he's said in a long time

jmm, Sunday, 16 October 2016 13:19 (seven years ago) link

Omg thx for this

Spiritual Hat Minimalism (Sund4r), Sunday, 16 October 2016 13:45 (seven years ago) link

re:

https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/787425879492296704

this whole event is really something

Spiritual Hat Minimalism (Sund4r), Sunday, 16 October 2016 13:47 (seven years ago) link

The Republican Hindu Trump coalition might be the only good thing to have come out of this.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 16 October 2016 14:01 (seven years ago) link


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