The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

Trump, reportedly in 1999: "People want me to [run for president] all the time … I don’t like it. Can you imagine how controversial I’d be? You think about [Bill Clinton] and the women. How about me with the women? Can you imagine?"

especially within the GOP, where p much everyone is guilty to varying degrees. They will all act like it never happened, and all the losers who voted for Trump will feel the exact same way.

xp

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/787059051637137408

― GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, October 14, 2016 11:55 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

last paragraph on this = very "blood runs cold"

i think they may pay a price, even if it's a small one. which might be enough to swing a few races.

i found that photographer's brother's facebook, check out some photos he posted:

https://www.facebook.com/daryl.davidoff?fref=ts

the American electorate is totally amnesiac. Did the GOP pay a price for the deeply unpopular move of shutting down the gov't/nearly defaulting on the nat'l debt in 2013? No they did not - in fact they were rewarded with congressional majorities in both houses less than a year later. GOP will bury Trump like he never happened and move on to trying to sell the same old shit, same as before.

xp

as a different british dude i would say trump was NOT well known in the uk in 1980-81: trump tower was only half built (it broke ground in 79, opened for business in 83) and i certainly didn't hear about him to register till i was reading the voice and spy in the late 80s... someone travelling to new york now and then probably could have come across his photo, but he definitely wasn't a regular name in the uk papers

the westminster sex parties story is still unfolding tbh -- some of it may be true (it's really murky stuff), whether or not gilberthorpe is a fantasist or paid fibber or whatever he is...

(many many x-posts as i was watching luke cage while writing)

GOP will win the midterm elections again in 2018. The crazies are just more fired up. But the problem is the GOP can't both stoke that craziness in midterms, and then ignore it in presidential elections. If they want to win the White House, at some point they'll have to deal with their most crazy voters. Not for the sake of the nation - they don't give a shit about the nation - but for their own careers.

private eye is down at the moment -- too many visitors? -- but there's a old PE story going round twitter abt gilberthorpe as fantastist (announcement in the papers of his marriage to a woman who didn't exist): annoyingly i can't re-find it, i thought charles aaron had retweeted it but apparently not

https://web.archive.org/web/20140812194717/http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=street_of_shame

thx ailsa, my fu is garbage at the moment

He's quite the piece of work

frederik b otm, sadly. the odds of dems taking the house this time are really low. And while I'm sure there'll be some hilarious drama around the speaker selection, by mid-2017 the house will consist of committee after committee investigating the email server and sundry other Clinton "scandals"

you don't think they'll go directly to impeachment? there will be a _lot_ of pressure on them to impeach.

I think they may be done with Benghazi by now. Only eight different committee investigations on that one.

W out a special prosecutor or justice dept support or any scared Dems that'll never happen. They'll probably still try tho.

xp There will lots of pressure to impeach, but they'll need some kind of plausible hook to hang it on that won't enrage 70% of the population for their trying to overturn a legitimate presidential election.

for whatever reason it feels like they took the L on benghazi after clinton's congressional testimony. obviously the fever swamp still brings it up, but it's been dwarfed by "emails" and "the foundation" throughout the campaign season

i wouldn't be shocked if they eventually impeached clinton, but even with their bloodthirsty base they'll probably still have to work up to it

also i feel like it's going to be leadership follies in the house gop for at least the first few months

German tabloids join in:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuwR9F7W8AEAujm.jpg

oh yeah

xp There will lots of pressure to impeach, but they'll need some kind of plausible hook to hang it on that won't enrage 70% of the population for their trying to overturn a legitimate presidential election.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless)

oh, most americans already think she's a criminal. impeach her for the email server thing. they'll drag it out for as long as possible, fail, and clean up in 2018. won't do shit for them in the long term, but they don't have any concept of or interest in long-term survival at this point.

But there are 'center-right' politicians who do have long-term interests. As do many dark money givers, who wants lower taxes and less regulation and free trade, not deadlock and impeachment trials. There are powerful forces who wants something else.

xp not that the GOP is necessarily thinking strategically, but the earlier impeachment famously lost them seats in '98. Even if everyone hates HRC, it seems unlikely to me that immediate impeachment would lead the GOP to clean up in 2018.

Idg this weird niche of prominent Indo-American Republicans.

https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/786257727995645952

Republican Hindu Coalition ldr on his support for Trump: “There is an elephant — or, I should correct myself — there is a camel in the room”

I know Jindal, D'Souza and Haley are Christian but a lot of NRIs find common cause in small government, an emphasis on personal / family responsibility and hating Muslims.

xp not that the GOP is necessarily thinking strategically, but the earlier impeachment famously lost them seats in '98. Even if everyone hates HRC, it seems unlikely to me that immediate impeachment would lead the GOP to clean up in 2018.

― intheblanks

yeah and going to war in iraq didn't do much to help ghwb win re-election, and yet...

seriously, where are the leaders in the gop? where is the common sense? there is none, _particularly_ not in the house.

Huh. Enjoying the image results for https://www.google.com/search?q=schlammschlacht

xp i don't know if i follow your point about bush I. I don't necessarily disagree that the house will eventually impeach clinton on some ridiculous charge, i just don't think they're going to do it immediately, specifically because of their lack of leadership, in addition to it not being in the interests of the tea party/freedom caucus donor base (Koch network, etc)

in addition to the likelihood of having a democratic senate, something the mid-90s house didn't have to contend with

where is the common sense?

i think there are a handful that can look & play the part (eg Ryan), prob just biding their time. rosiest case i can see for the party is that instead of getting perma-tarred w/ Trump, the "reasonable" dudes who clucked their tongues while offering a mealy-mouthed endorsement will eventually get rehabbed the MSM (gotta have that horse race!). they'll try to look adult while exploiting the dissatisfaction/ outright disdain of voters who voted HRC out of fear of Trump.

this, of course, does not consider demographic changes afoot, nor the GOP's seeming unwillingness to piss off the white nationalists who've infiltrated their base

the GOP's seeming unwillingness to piss off the white nationalists who've infiltrated always been their base

can't really argue with that

but i guess they used to do a better job of keepin em in the basket

or during my lifetime, anyway

most americans already think she's a criminal. impeach her for the email server thing.

I doubt that the majority thinks she's a criminal, even if the number who think it is substantial. otoh, the email server thing has been thoroughly aired before the election, so when she wins there will be an indisputable majority who voted for her and want her to be president, regardless of the email server. Ignoring their wishes would be perilous. Voters get very pissed off when their expressed wishes during an election are treated with contempt.

i feel like there is actually a ton of good will toward her right now. she's running her campaign in a very responsible way -- never taking trump's bait, letting that campaign destroy itself

the American electorate is totally amnesiac. Did the GOP pay a price for the deeply unpopular move of shutting down the gov't/nearly defaulting on the nat'l debt in 2013? No they did not - in fact they were rewarded with congressional majorities in both houses less than a year later. GOP will bury Trump like he never happened and move on to trying to sell the same old shit, same as before.

xp

― Οὖτις

A large part of the problem is the media STILL wanting to play "both sides do it," despite even NBC Nightly News reporters writing ledes that go (I paraphrase): "Donald Trump, after lying about never sexually assaulting women repeated the charge today." But the Beltway press has only turned on Trump because it feels like it's been treated like chumps.

And, yes, I don't see the fever breaking in 2018 or 2020. Did the fever break when Goldwater lost in 1964? No. Nixon, canny politician that he was, came off like the Elder Statesman but one who cut deals with Strom Thurmond to get the same racists who opposed the Civil Rights Act in 1964 and who would vote for George Wallace in 1972.

The only way the Democrats ever destroyed the GOP for a generation was when FDR and Truman hung the Depression and Herbert Hoover around the neck of every Republican who ran for office b/w 1932 and 1052, and even Ike was smart enough not to dismantle the New Deal. Instead, we've got a Dem nominee/likely president who will likely sit down with Paul Ryan.

To repeat, Hillary has to make the GOP pay for its perfidy like FDR did in 1932 and 1936. I see no signs she's willing to do it.

HOWEVER, Barack Obama, who doesn't give a fuck anymore, is.

If Ryan does that he'll lose the Speakership

Xp

But the Beltway press has only turned on Trump because it feels like it's been treated like chumps.

Partly this, and partly that they can smell a loser.

Once Obama is out of office, I think you are going to see him go on the attack much more aggressively. I think he's been holding a lot back.

chuuch ‏@ch000ch

TRUMP: i grab women by the pussy
A DOZEN WOMEN: yeah that's true he did it to me
TRUMP: this is a global conspiracy

I also think the GOP will continue the same policy of zero compromise and total stonewalling with Clinton, but even more so.

think obama has been chastened by his experience as president. i think he believed he would get a few republicans who liked him in the senate to play ball. can def see no fucks given version post presidency.

He's definitely not going to fade into retirement

nah, but hes gonna go to colorado and get FADED in his retirement
CHOOM GANG REUNION

Wld watch that 30 for 30

No president plays attack dog immediately after they leave office, this is not a thing that happens.

Clinton definitely will be clear-eyed about the extent of bipartisanship.