The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

biggest margin might be Harding/Cox.

"what should we bill this to in Quicbooks?"
"eh just put it under Voter Suppression"

xp

no one thinks that invoice is real do they? please tell me no one believes that is real

oh it's gonna happen

Nah, life is never that perfect.

Like I've said, landslides demand lots of party switching; we're simply too polarized for presidents to get more than Obama did in 2008.

Other than showing that October polls are a good indicator of the outcome of the election, note in this figure that Clinton's lead is actually pretty small compared to many previous elections, and isn't anywhere near the historical landslides.

"many previous elections" = 4 out 17?

Would love him to be crushed humiliated annihilated, but I doubt it'll happen.

I was referring to this statement fwiw, and he will be crushed/humiliatied/annihilated insofar as it will be the biggest margin for a GOP Prez candidate loss in decades.

DJP, I'm seeing 8 october leads larger than hers on that plot, I think?

oh, I see. I was reading the chart in terms of Democratic competitiveness so the Republican leads didn't matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landslide_victory#United_States

we got sharks out the kazoo here

he is having so much fun being listened to http://screengrabber.deadspin.com/trump-endorses-brain-damage-in-speech-that-claims-footb-1752141045

no one thinks that invoice is real do they? please tell me no one believes that is real

oh i don't know. if someone can be convinced that DJT is fit to lead the free world i suspect there's no end to the things you could convince this person to believe.

When Clinton was ahead after the conventions I wished that people in this thread would not crow so loud about the inevitability of her victory, and I feel the same way now.

Understandable and I won't breathe fully easy until I can, but I think you're missing two key points:

* Trump's ridiculously horrible three weeks, counting this one, since the weekend before the first debate, arguably his high point as such -- Ted Cruz had come on board, there was high level antsiness about the upcoming first debate, notably tight polling all around. Since then, collapse, and right in the stretch, now compounded by the absolutely ridiculous if predictable infighting. The space of time between that highpoint weekend and the end of this week was essentially half the remaining distance to the election and the results are as we see them. I mean, we're at a point where it's entirely possible Trump won't win Utah.

* Unlike after the conventions, voting is now well underway, and while both sides have their enthusiasts, the HRC one is the one that's crazy dedicated to getting to them as much as possible and getting votes locked in. And once in, that's that, no takebacks. Add on the fact that a lot of people just want to see Trump eat it badly -- and that's more than they want to see HRC do -- and I think you need to take a little stock here.

there's a difference between 'the polls sure look bad' and 'the major players in your own party are saying they won't vote for you'

in that football thing he says "now they say 'game over 15 yard penalty you can't kick a field goal'"? is he saying that offensive players are getting a lot of helmet to helmet penalties or does he not understand the defense can't kick a field goal?

Check out @adamcald11's Tweet: https://twitter.com/adamcald11/status/785878268427644928?s=09

another important thing to bear in mind: the election result isn't "october poll avg ± X" where X is about 10 points, which is what that chart perhaps suggests. the chart ignores the issue of momentum, as in which way is the race moving. it's clearly moving toward hillary right now, and it's proving difficult to stop, much less turn around at the moment, and there's < 4 weeks to go.

There was a piece earlier this year that had a nice point -- that Trump rallies were essentially 'safe spaces' for the disenchanted who backed Trump over all else. What we're seeing is essentially the logical conclusion of that: in the internal world of rallies, certain TV/radio hosts, siloed political talk, everything is coming up Trump while everyone else is going "Uh...you're all kinda nuts, you know." The key difference here between true believers for a doomed campaign in the past and now is that Trump seems to have pretty much bought his own schtick, so they can't let go.

if someone can be convinced that DJT is fit to lead the free world i suspect there's no end to the things you could convince this person to believe.

A Trumpkin on my FB feed is convinced the Rudy/Hillary 9/11 photo is a photoshop because "if this was to have have been taken on 9/11 or shortly thereafter, where is the debris and dust? and those FDNY hats came out the same day? and thats an awful lot of spectators for a disaster area?" So yeah, there's no end of tin foil hattery.

https://twitter.com/adamcald11/status/785878268427644928?s=09

whoah who made this

Meantime, Rick Wilson, who I mentioned earlier, seems to have a pretty good inside line on certain things, and he's been dropping hints that another big Trump fuckup moment is nigh, adding there 'is a Boston angle' in particular. Hmm indeed, guess we'll see.

so it's a racial slur then

Not sure, Shakey, it showed up in my feed retweeted from someone else. But it'seems damned effective.

so it's a racial slur then

haha yup

That "13th" video clip legit made me go cold.

The Twitter video is a clip from Ava DuVernay's 13TH. xp

Ah, got it. That's in my Netflix queue.

Meanwhile the self clowning continues: http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/manmentum.html?m=1

dding there 'is a Boston angle' in particular. Hmm indeed, guess we'll see.

― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, October 12, 2016 4:29 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Trump revealed to be the original bassist in Slapshot!!!

It's an amusing connection that Trump's football whining is similar to what his business partner and thinkalike Vince McMahon said in '00-01 when VKM started the XFL, an alternate gridiron league notable for greatly reduced safety measures matched up with hype for violence, and a player who busted his neck/clavicle on the very first play of the very first game.

Meantime...she's a strange person, this one.

https://twitter.com/sppeoples/status/786314271504334849

Yup:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/XFL

Injuries were a major problem across the league: only three of the league's eight Opening Day starters; Los Angeles's Tommy Maddox, San Francisco's Mike Pawlawski and Memphis's Jim Druckenmiller; were still starters by the end of the season. Birmingham and Las Vegas were both on their third-string quarterbacks by the end of the ten-week season.

no one thinks that invoice is real do they? please tell me no one believes that is real

you have to wonder who's gonna see that and believe it just because they already think the fix is in for clinton

shoutout to acorn & bill ayers, tho

earning her keep, that Kellyann

"Sharia Law Center"

loooooool at using that Nate Silver map!

Occupy Democrats is fucking lame, but they did just burn Giuliani's ass real good

http://occupydemocrats.com/wp-content/uploads/fdny-1024x536.jpg

http://occupydemocrats.com/wp-content/uploads/fdny2-1024x516.jpg

Meanwhile get ready for next week!

Wallace will ask questions about debt and entitlements, immigration, the economy, the Supreme Court, foreign hot spots and the candidates’ fitness to be president, according to an announcement made Wednesday by the Commission on Presidential Debates. Each of the six segments will last 15 minutes.
Those topics are subject to change based on any news developments.

I was at that intersection just yesterday! No sign of Clinton. If she was really there on 9/11, and by the way you notice she is wearing a mask. She doesn't want people to know who she is and really - - - really, folks, can you blame her? I mean... gimme a break. It's a really ugly mask too. And you know the other guys, they wouldn't wear them. They said, we're not wearing these, we're taking them off because - nothing to hide. Rudy. So if she was really there, and I think she was wearing a mask but she wasn't thee, because why is she not there now? The buildings are there now. The traffic lights are there now. I saw it. I've seen it. It's, there's no answer. No answer, folks. They have no answer and it's a fake, believe me it's a fake. It's true. Unbelievable. They faked these pictures, they fake everything, and the media - they're so biased, they're the worst media. It's worse than papyrus or carrier pigeons! This is the middle ages, it's worse than parchment the media and Rudy - I have said this all along, they're not reporting and that's why they're a failing newspaper.

Cool, climate change gets a solid 30 seconds of air time.

if someone can be convinced that DJT is fit to lead the free world i suspect there's no end to the things you could convince this person to believe.

Read this as DJP at first.

im also scurred of chris wallace but john dickerson from face the nation (and the slate podcast) says he thinks hes a good questioner who will be fair.

I don't get the impression Chris Wallace is a fan of Trump or any of his bullshit. He might actually be the toughest moderator of all.

And it's not like Ailes has any say over him at this point.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/786258510443008000 😗👌

candidates’ fitness to be president

is this purposefully broad?

cardio question every 7 minutes

Wallace and Trump hate each other iirc

Chris Wallace doesn't matter. Unless the polls reverse course in a big way, Clinton will be in DGAF mode for the third debate. I'm guessing she was rattled in the second one because Trump was gaining ground. Her worst moments were when she tried engaging with him. Now? She can just ignore all the insanity entirely and calmly recite campaign material. Just take a knee and run out the clock. Meanwhile Trump is going to lurch onto the stage and burst forth from his own skin like a Cronenberg movie.

she wasn't rattled