The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

Sharks out the kazoo.

lol at utah, hope that happens. now I'm a little surprised there haven't been more favorite-son protest candidates tho I get how utah might uniquely foster something like that. also a big problem for trump's snowball's chance in hell path to victory - he needs every last state he can get, and a utah loss - which I could see happening even if the race tightened up elsewhere - would cancel out a trump recovery in iowa, say.

first third-party candidate to win electoral votes since wallace in '68?

― fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Wednesday, October 12, 2016 8:51 AM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

didn't perot win some? I thought there were a few states that award proportionally?

Also, this is just anecdotal but I think it might be indicative of something that might be happening, friend at work said she had dinner with her Mom, a very big Christian conservative, always voted Republican and very right wing as long as she can remember, anyway she told my coworker "I'm voting for Hillary Clinton, but don't tell anyone especially anyone I go to church with."

I know there's been speculation that there's secret Trump voters out there who won't say they are but will vote for him, but I could definitely see the reverse happening esp. in demos like the one above.

nope, Perot was a 0 in both xpost

Also, this is just anecdotal but I think it might be indicative of something that might be happening, friend at work said she had dinner with her Mom, a very big Christian conservative, always voted Republican and very right wing as long as she can remember, anyway she told my coworker "I'm voting for Hillary Clinton, but don't tell anyone especially anyone I go to church with."

I know there's been speculation that there's secret Trump voters out there who won't say they are but will vote for him, but I could definitely see the reverse happening esp. in demos like the one above.

THE REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT

Also, this is just anecdotal but I think it might be indicative of something that might be happening, friend at work said she had dinner with her Mom, a very big Christian conservative, always voted Republican and very right wing as long as she can remember, anyway she told my coworker "I'm voting for Hillary Clinton, but don't tell anyone especially anyone I go to church with."

I know there's been speculation that there's secret Trump voters out there who won't say they are but will vote for him, but I could definitely see the reverse happening esp. in demos like the one above.

THE REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT

yeah I don't see why the opposite wouldn't be true as well. Hillary is extremely unpopular as well. I don't like telling people I'm voting for her.

"Secret Hillary vote" makes more sense anyway, I would imagine there are lots of people who are utterly unexcited about Clinton but consider it their moral duty to vote against Trump

A little more on why Utah is going to be very interesting going forward: I've been checking in on the Twitter feed of Rick Wilson, Florida-based GOP media/campaign dude and a from-the-start Never Trump type, for the past few months; he became McMullin's campaign manager and has cannily been cashing in favors to get McMullin some free media time for these past two months. Meantime by concentrating their efforts in Utah and surrounding states -- not a surprising calculation given McMullin's Mormon background combined with the state's clear unease with Trump in the primaries -- and adding a dollop of 'hey if you don't like EITHER big candidate, hi there!' along the way, McMullin was pretty easily able to carve out what we're now seeing. That he's trashing Johnson in the state where Johnson's campaign headquarters is is kinda hilarious too.

Wilson's been dropping a hint or two that some Utah endorsements are about to arrive -- I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Lee, Gary Herbert and (in what would be a REAL tell, since he has to calculate what Trump voters in his district could do) Chaffetz climb on board, especially in light of last weekend. This would likely be enough to further increase both name recognition and switched votes to push him over the top if these trends hold.

And at that point -- heck, probably right now -- Trump is suddenly in a real bind. Consider: his path to victory constantly narrows, and is getting narrower. (In practical terms, I think he's dead in the water, of course.) He needs every banked state in his column he can get, and while it was looking weaker for him in Utah he/his team/the RNC probably figured 'eh, imperfect, we'll lose some folks to Johnson but we're fine otherwise.' Now both McMullin and, of course, HRC can go "Hey, a little extra effort and we've got those votes." Meaning Trump and team now have to spend time, energy -- and probably even a personal appearance or two -- to shore things up if possible, though I don't think they are. And if they do, well, trashing HRC is of course par for the course. But Trump is probably pissed as fuck he has to even spend a little time thinking about McMullin, probably raging about how he's some small-time loser, who does he think he is, etc. And probably thinking the same thing about his supporters there as well. And if he directly attacks McMullin, whether in terms of Twitter or a speech or an interview, that's more publicity for McMullin right there. It would be more than a little hilarious if the 'outsider' is outflanked by, well, an outsider.

Other thought: it would be interesting to see what the spillover from Utah in surrounding states might be with McMullin too. Nowhere near enough to win I suspect, but more of a troubling spoiler for Trump regardless.

(Further: besides trashing McMullin in Utah, IF those endorsements come in, then he's got to trash whoever gives them as well. And that...won't go over well.)

thx Ned

(And further further: I would LOVE to see Trump complain about rigged voting in Utah. If you're going to blow yourself up, just go there too.)

Oh and one other potentially obvious endorser to consider: Romney.

(Further: besides trashing McMullin in Utah, IF those endorsements come in, then he's got to trash whoever gives them as well. And that...won't go over well.)

― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, October 12, 2016 9:30 AM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

at this point though he's just basically just beefing w/everyone and taking Ls like meek mill, i don't think he's ever going to think about what's going to go over well if he feels personally attacked by someone

Meanwhile, a fun read:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-gop-229653

HRC is not likely to get more than 32-36% in the likes of ID, UT and WY (the deepest of red, don't-even-scroll-down-that-far states), but the prospect, however small, of her WINNING the EVs due to a three-way split of anti-DEM votes is amazin'. Obv, I'd prefer Senate+House if we're talking cratering GOP numbers nationally, but it would be pretty sweet.

A little more on Utah:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/a-new-poll-shows-a-tie-in-utah-be-skeptical-be-amazed/

lots of these national/state polls which show solid leads include periods pre-video (the IPSOS 50-state web poll dump, of dubious reliability, goes back as far as Sept). only a few polls (like NBC Nat'l) were entirely after, so I'm really intrigued to see what the most recent ones will show.

House might be a reach but I'm amazed it's back in the discussion. thanks Donald.

I soudl also point out that the Murphy/Rubio race in Florida has tightened considerably in the last week. Rubio's ahead but not by much. I used to think that even if Trump lost Florida we'd still see The Moron with the Haircut back in the Senate; now I'm seeing increasing signs that Rubio and Trump's fates are coupled.

oh dear God please take Rubio

I mean in the election, don't kill him

http://www.christianitytoday.com/ct/2016/october-web-only/speak-truth-to-trump.html?start=1

Enthusiasm for a candidate like Trump gives our neighbors ample reason to doubt that we believe Jesus is Lord. They see that some of us are so self-interested, and so self-protective, that we will ally ourselves with someone who violates all that is sacred to us—in hope, almost certainly a vain hope given his mendacity and record of betrayal, that his rule will save us.

most convincing Trump endorsement i've seen yet...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWzGLF2yN1E

Yeah, that was my favorite paragraph in that Christianity Today editorial. xp

omigod Robert Wyatt endorsed Trump!

post

nonsense, that's obviously w.g. grace

Per the CT editiorial and all this, this is worth a quick read:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/donald-trump-evangelical-women-2016-videotape-214346

Beth Moore, named near the start, is one of those people who I'd honestly never heard of but who, based on a LOT of chatter I saw on Twitter and elsewhere, is absolutely massive in evangelical women's circles, and by all accounts her posts on Sunday were indicative of a huge break.

omg
https://twitter.com/Jzokun/status/785708353360060416

― human and working on getting beer (longneck), Wednesday, October 12, 2016 6:54 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i love this so much

i've been eyeing the few trump signs in my neighborhood lately to see if the tape changed any minds, and this morning i saw that one house removed theirs. they still have a rob portman sign up and a few other republican candidates but the trump sign is gone

A high school friend of mine who lives in Nebraska and is a deeply committed Christian (and more or less libertarian) has really been chiding his friends who are Trump supporters.

Latest Cook Political Report:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CulBJiKWcAEYJeM.png

That's Senate races

Nuke the Confederacy

finish what Grant and Sherman started imo

incredible Geoff Darrow Trump illo

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuhTcFBW8AERxQs.jpg

I have never seen this thing on Clinton's website before. It compares what Clinton and Trump were doing at random points in time.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/tools/way-back-when/

e.g.

1973: After Yale Law, Hillary goes to work at the Children’s Defense Fund. She travels door-to-door collecting stories about why so many disabled children are not attending school.

The Justice Department is suing Trump for housing discrimination—after he refuses to rent apartment units “because of race and color.”
New York Times, October 16, 1973

wow.

Yeah, that's pretty strong.

it's good stuff, but i don't like that it's only viewable randomly. also, it should be updated to show what david bowie was doing that year as well.

1986: After a long night at the Rose Law Firm, First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton drives to the Governor's Mansion, kicks off her shoe, and pours herself a Johnny Walker Black.

1986: Donald J Trump kicks off his shoes and picks his toes.

1986: David Bowie stars in the major motion picture "Labyrinth".

this is so great

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/major-gop-donors-are-asking-trump-their-money-back-n664661

The long-time Republican bundler, who has raised money in Florida, Ohio, Los Angeles and in the Northeast, said that he is ashamed of his solicitations of cash for Trump, adding that he raised money for him as recently as last week.

"I'm embarrassed. I'm really embarrassed" he said. "I shook hands with him last week and now I want to wash my hand."

I mean yeah you wanna go "wait really did you not hear the campaign, you know, last week and the week before" but OTOH this is an utterly great time for people to go "you know what, I'm done"

sounds like that second debate performance really staunched the bleeding huh

for the people un-unendorsing rn, i wonder what they'll do when the next oppo drops

from a political standpoint, the timing couldn't be better, damage to GOP is maximized

xp

clinton leading the infamous LA time tracker as of today btw

And speaking of which, a must-read:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=0

lol i spent ages trying to work up a bowie/labyrinth/shoes/toes gag and couldn't find one

Roffle:

https://twitter.com/rachaelmbade/status/786241701761409025

well that's obv she's still trying to help him win her thing all along has been "keep yr eyes on the prize"