The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

Robert Christgau - Confessions of a Hillary Supporter (Village Voice)
The Dean -- people still call him that, right? -- dips his characteristically left-leaning toe into uncharacteristic political commentary. And why not? He's earned it after this many years (I stopped paying attention after ham and bomb icons took the place of insightful criticism around 1990 or so), and his voice has finally shed the arcane tangents that at times made his year-end essays all but incomprehensible. But this essay doesn't reveal anything new, and reading it isn't my idea of fun. It ought to be one or the other, if not both. B-

yeah no i'm not looking at the sub for any reason

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, October 12, 2016 4:24 AM (twenty-two seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It's just lots of dicks saying "LANDSLIDE INCOMING"

bah, xgau cd have said that in 63 words max

xp

Tarfumes' parody or xgau's essay?

LADY BRACKNELL: Both if necessary.

indeed

back in the day unrecommended

well maybe on nov 9th

are you kidding? on nov 9th it's gonna be wall to wall "trump really won, the rigged media made up lots of fake black anchor baby votes to steal the election"

or maybe that's actually what you're looking for idk

lol only so i can post cryingjordan.jpeg

Bill Mitchell's Twitter is gonna be amazing on Nov 9th, might make all this worth it after all

this is like the briar patch story, without a brer rabbit

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cugw4ajXgAAjpz9.jpg

did ryan essentially give up on his presidential ambitions once he became speaker of the house? i mean it's like jumping into a giant sewer filled with insane ppl, basically seems impossible to keep any likeability or dignity in that position...

(i was gonna ask if any speaker had ever been president but googled and i guess only one: james polk)

people were surprised to see some nutso tweets from the donald account "on iphone" as opposed to the OG "from android" -- but don't, i guess:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/300445-exclusive-trump-campaign-ceo-wanted-to-destroy-ryan#.V_1FoXRqh10.twitter

“Bannon has Alex Jones-level paranoia about Paul Ryan,” the source said, referring to the right-wing radio host and conspiracy theorist who runs the pro-Trump website Infowars.

“He goes on these amazing rants,” the source added of Bannon. “He thinks Paul Ryan is part of a conspiracy with George Soros and Paul Singer, in which elitists want to bring one world government.”

In the Dec. 1 email, Breitbart’s Washington editor, Matt Boyle, suggested to Bannon via email that a story promoting Ryan’s planned overhaul of the mental health system would be a good way to “open a bridge” to Ryan.

Bannon wasn’t keen on the idea.

“I’ve got a cure for mental health issue,” Bannon wrote to Boyle. “Spank your children more.”

“I get that,” responded Boyle, “but this is a place where we can open a bridge to Paul Ryan --- we're playing the very long long long game Steve.”

Replied Bannon: “Long game is him gone by spring.”

and replace him with what? ben carson?

Imagining what would happen if Trump tried to stand again in 2020.

i'm having trouble imagining the future of the GOP six weeks from now tbh. really have no clue wtf is in store.

Steve King

xp

jeff sessions going for it by saying he isn't sure pussy grabbing is sexual assault

really have no clue wtf is in store.

I don't think Ryan's going to lose his majority tbh, but his opponents are gonna be emboldened and he's going to be reduced to Boehner 2.0. Cue freedom caucus revolt, gov't shutdowns, assorted temper tantrums and in-fighting. Which is likely to last until 2018 and then who knows what happens.

Senate GOP will be p much as it was prior to them reclaiming the majority in 2014.

Nativism is now the GOP mainstream. McCain, et. al are no longer part of that mainstream.

yeah those guys are gonna be put out to pasture, they have no power in the party now and it's obvious

legislatively and structurally what that means I haven't quite thought through. GOP will have no incentive as a party to compromise, and I'm under no illusions that these guys are so principled that they will buck the party line with votes - seems more likely they'll just be humiliated and cowed into going along with whatever batshit insanity their leadership is craven enough to tolerate.

where Cruz falls in all this is a real mystery - now absolutely everybody will hate him, both the Trumplings and the "establishment"

lol @ "i get that, but"

the funny thing is that Trump as a force in the party will be totally spent following his loss. I mean, what's he gonna do - become a lobbyist? Run for a Senate seat? Fuck that that's small potatoes to him, and he's not actually interested in governing or government. It's not like the party will have him to turn to as a strategist or savior wandering in the wilderness or party satrap. He's done/gone. But the party will remain and be damaged by the divisions he sowed. There will inevitably be people in the party who see him as a template for their own ambitions, though, and their stupidity and dangerousness will now have an open platform to be paraded about on. Are there younger, relatively untarnished figures that can pick up the pieces? Nikki Haley or someone like that? I don't know. Obviously Christie and Newt and Giuliani are all finished. McConnell probably wants to retire so bad. Ryan wanted to be president but no way is that happening now. Maybe Pence will come out of it okay, who knows.

An election like this one is unlikely to change much in the current dynamic. HRC won't have much in the way of coattails to sweep in a new Congress along with her big win, because however much she has tried to attach herself to a domestic policy agenda, the election has become purely a referendum on Trump, which means almost nothing politically the day after Trump loses. So even if the Senate turns barely Democrat (50-50 or 51-49) and the Republican House margin narrows to under a dozen, the status quo ante will reassert itself almost instantaneously.

agreed. if those margins move significantly though, things *will* be different. and it does seem possible - or at least more likely than it has ever been during this campaign - that the GOP will suffer catastrophic losses.

the xgau essay would've been better if it were all about his adventures canvassing for the dems, rest of it was pretty much tedious conventional wisdom (complete w/ a sneering anti-sanders tangent)

there was no status quo, though. the party was in disarray _before_ trump showed up. that's why he's been able to do so well- they have no vision, no direction, and no leadership.

the status quo was gridlock at the federal level. that is likely to continue.

xp but what you describe as disarray and directionlessness is a status and that is what we'll return to

what do you mean "return to"

have you been asleep the last 2 years

where Cruz falls in all this is a real mystery - now absolutely everybody will hate him, both the Trumplings and the "establishment"

― Οὖτις, Tuesday, October 11, 2016 4:04 PM (thirty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think my single favorite thing from the last few weeks was cruz's timing for his endorsement

have you been asleep the last 2 years

― Οὖτις

i don't think so. when was the part where shit started getting done?

the status quo, as pointed out three times now, is shit not getting done

This Cruz tweet from a couple days ago makes me laugh. He's complaining about bias against Trump, but it's hard to not to read it as frustration that the leak didn't happen in time for Cruz to win the nomination.

Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz Oct 9
NBC had tape 11 yrs. Apprentice producer says they have more & worse. So why not release in 2015? In March? Why wait till October? #MSMBias

That is totally a complaint about how he could have won the nomination if this had been released earlier

Dreyfuss is aware of your onscreen idiocy:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardDreyfuss/status/785931910845464577

Richard Dreyfuss ‏@RichardDreyfuss

Quint did not kill Jaws.

https://twitter.com/jzokun/status/785708353360060416

12:55 PM - 11 Oct 2016

Far from chiding Goldman Sachs for obstructing Democratic proposals for financial reform, Clinton appeared to sympathize with the giant investment bank. At a Goldman Sachs Alternative Investments Symposium in October 2013, Clinton almost apologized for the Dodd-Frank reform bill, explaining that it had to pass “for political reasons,” because “if you were an elected member of Congress and people in your constituency were losing jobs and shutting businesses and everybody in the press is saying it’s all the fault of Wall Street, you can’t sit idly by and do nothing.”

Clinton added, “And I think the jury is still out on that because it was very difficult to sort of sort through it all.”

Clinton praised Deutsche Bank in a 2014 speech for “the work that the Bank has done in New York City on affordable housing.”

While Deutsche Bank has given to anti-homelessness campaigns in the past, it was also cited in a New York State Senate report in January for refusing to maintain foreclosed properties in New York City neighborhoods and costing those communities millions in unpaid fines. Deutsche is also about to face a multi-billion-dollar penalty from the Justice Department for defrauding investors with low-quality mortgage securities, leading to the housing meltdown.

Those excerpts were among many listed in an 80-page document prepared by the Clinton campaign, listing potentially damaging quotes from the Democratic nominee’s paid but at that point still secret speeches. The report landed in campaign chairman John Podesta’s email, which was hacked, and then posted by WikiLeaks last week.

In a November 2013 speech to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Clinton pronounced herself proud to work with the trade group as a U.S. senator to “look for ways to help families facing foreclosure with concrete steps.”

NAR represents real estate agents, who had no authority to assist distressed homeowners. An April 2007 document lists NAR’s priorities in foreclosure mitigation, and they were able to get an amendment exempting mortgage debt forgiveness from being treated as earned income. But the rest amount to “urging” and “supporting” efforts to help homeowners that never happened.

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/11/behind-closed-doors-hillary-clinton-sympathized-with-goldman-sachs-over-financial-reform/

CNN host cuts off Katrina Pierson mid-tirade: "That conversation was going nowhere"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRWZ8IFvpI8

Ted Cruz ‏@tedcruz Oct 9
NBC had tape 11 yrs. Apprentice producer says they have more & worse. So why not release in 2015? In March? Why wait till October? #MSMBias

― jmm, Tuesday, October 11, 2016 5:43 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lmao my first thought after reading that was this:

According to several classmates, none of whom were firsthand witnesses, Cruz was said to have run the wrong way and was later seen naked and banging against the window of a locked dorm in an attempt to gain entrance.

Numerous as the secondhand accounts were, we were unable to confirm the nude-lockout incident. However, we did establish that the following spring, Cruz, who was a member of the Campus Safety Committee, appeared in at least five separate issues of the Daily Princetonian as a staunch opponent of the concept of locked entryways.

i'm having trouble imagining the future of the GOP six weeks from now tbh. really have no clue wtf is in store.

With 60% of Governors, 70% of state legislatures, and a House majority, they'll still have a lot of incumbency advantage. Each of those politicians will need to determine which flavor of GOPenis they are, based on what their constituents seem to want. Some will be trumpian firebrands determined to blow up the system. Others will be Ryanoids.

But those guys are fond of power, so they'll likely keep the R label. Because even if no one agrees on what the R means, it will still be the best way to say "not a Democrat."

And, as Oupc notes, the legislative program is the Eternal Nope.

That is totally a complaint about how he could have won the nomination if this had been released earlier

Exactly -- it's a complaint about the biased MSM being in the tank FOR Trump to win the primary.

Okay, yeah, I see that now. I guess I just assumed he wouldn't say that while still endorsing Trump.

With 60% of Governors, 70% of state legislatures

aren't these numbers liable to shift with the presidential election? I can't keep track of all the state elections this year.

not a ton of governorships up for grabs judging from this, but some

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/02/United_States_gubernatorial_elections%2C_2016.svg/320px-United_States_gubernatorial_elections%2C_2016.svg.png

I assume those are all relatively safe too, I haven't heard of any of those being particularly hotly contested except for North Carolina (right?)

feel like the only just punishment for Arpaio and Trump would be a special elixir that makes them invisible to other humans only when they're peeing in a public restroom, so that people come up to the urinal thinking it's unoccupied and pissing all over them.

The right wing conflation of "sex in the media" and predation -- which is on display in that katrina pierson video -- pisses me off so much. Do they really not see the difference between kim kardashian making a sex tape -- which pierson mentioned -- and trump assaulting people? What?