The nation may survive, but the wound to hope and order will never fully heal - US elections 2016: the october surprises

otm Phil:

"Red America" looks bigger than it is based on the electoral vote map, but nobody lives in these places.

That's why I like proportional cartograms like

https://lanekenworthy.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/presidentialelection2012-cartogram-states-redandblue.png?w=440&h=294

Or the one 538 uses with hexagons for electoral votes. Much more informative than a Mercator projection showing the mountain west and old Confederacy forming a Big Red L.

https://twitter.com/serafinowicz/status/784767216210305024

I think at some point the completely boorish attitudes and actions are part of this feedback loop where people think themselves respected and powerful and fail to realize that eventually people are doing things due to you notional economic/social power and not at all due to respect. Any respect for someone who ends up being a serial groper/harasser/rapist evaporates, but these people either don't care that what they're capitalizing on is fear and not respect, or the change has happened gradually enough that they don't care.

I really think people like Trump see no line between respect and fear.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/08/what-color-is-the-swan/#more-17785

The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.

In one common sentiment, catching Trump on tape bragging about groping women without consent is somehow a last straw that has caused supporters to desert him, starting off with GOP Reps. Jason Chaffetz (district Partisan Voting Index R+25%) and Martha Roby (R+17%), and Utah governors Gary Herbert (current) and Jon Huntsman (former). Taniel’s running tally of GOP reactions is here. Some PEC readers think this is a black swan – an unexpected anomaly that moves everything.

[...]

I would argue that this weekend’s public blowback is triggered by a growing realization of what will happen on November 8th. After the first debate, it became obvious that Trump was going to lose the general election. Clinton’s bounceback is small, but by modern (i.e. post-1996) standards it looks large. There isn’t enough time for opinion to shift back (for instance, within my random diffusion assumption), especially given the natural setpoint of the race (my Bayesian prior that assumes regression to the mean). In other words, people’s intuitions started telling them that time had run out for Trump.

i think the comments are legitimately horrifying but this is a good point as well - it's an incident that bc of the current climate has taken on greater significance. it's not that this is particularly bad compared to previous comments + stories but that it has reached a boiling point.

That's why I like proportional cartograms like

― burqini kill (Ye Mad Puffin)

stop it some of us have already started drinking

my god that's what new jersey looks like in my nightmares

Loooool

https://twitter.com/NolteNC/status/784761875653353472

"The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up."

xps Yeah this is what it looks like to me. Seems this whole campaign has been headed towards a critical mass of people SAYING 'this is the end for me' whatever the actual turning point, as well as others believing that everyone else sees [x point] as the end for them.

wow @NolteNC, that's some serious wishful thinking there

something Trump's supporters seem to excel at

trump's admission that he didn't score on this particular occasion a masterful plea to the overlooked beta male demographic

Pence isn't making today's Wisconsin appearance. Don't know if it was his decision or Ryan's, but looool

T/S: "you have no idea the support" vs "somebody set us up the bomb"

i read pence pulled out.

he talks really strangely

dude is probably seriously rethinking his life choices

You guys please tell me GOP can't actually make some kind of insane "Trump agrees to resign on inauguration day" swapout deal

i think enten over at fivethirtyeight makes a good point here:

"Also, although I may sound like it at times, I am not of Donald Trump’s age. But my father was. And my father, at times, I would say, was not a creepy old man, but a… sexy senior citizen. But I never once heard anything remotely close to these comments [from him]. Not once. And I think we’d be giving Trump a pass if we said that “men of a certain era” speak this way."

yeah i can relate to that. my dad, who fortunately is no longer around to see any of this, was a self-proclaimed "dirty old man" who hit on every single woman he saw. he was also a congenital liar. also, he was insane. despite all that, he did not talk like that. ever.

Scottie Nell Hughes now has a perpetual look on her face like she just watched one of her children get devoured by a pack of wolves.

xp my father is 71 and while he may have talked like that on the streets of Brooklyn in the early 50s or in Vietnam, he sure hasn't for my entire life.

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784793568267284480

Ben Carson still stands with Trump "100%," Armstrong Williams tells me. Of lewd tape: "It's no different from what you hear in rap music."

Maybe Trump should use "Stick Talk" for his campaign appearance intro music

Tyler the Creator for president

Armstrong Williams tells me. Of lewd tape: "It's no different from what you hear in rap music."

Fucking idiot.

Hehehe https://twitter.com/philiprucker/status/784804121396346881

i wonder how long before camile paglia chimes in to tell us pussy grabbing hearkens back to the classical age of greek gods and hence Trump is the new Zeus (also, daughter fucking)

Were they too stupid to realizs something like this would come out??? Listen to the Howard stern tapes bro!

Lol akm

https://soundcloud.com/therealmikedean/grab-em-by-da-pussy-mike-dean-mwa

Pence will leak how upset he is. He'll semaphore it like crazy. But publically he will only express a certain regret and a desire to move on.

A source close to Trump camp told me Pence and his team are “absolutely apoplectic,” "melting down” and "inconsolable.”

OK who else heard "absolutely apoplectic" in Daffy Duck's voice

i wonder how long before camile paglia chimes in to tell us pussy grabbing hearkens back to the classical age of greek gods and hence Trump is the new Zeus (also, daughter fucking)

― akm, Saturday, October 8, 2016

Tuesday.

Zeus also killed his father. Great role model.

Could pence quit if trump doesn't?

Citing a need to spend more time with his family?

was wondering the same thing --- if he did, who in their right mind would step up and take the role of vp

Ivanka, duh

Rudy

ailes

Cosby

Idk. Dude is such a cartoon villain of a person. Anyone who has defended him through the course of this election seems ridiculous.

He's an assaulter of women, a promoter of violence, and a one time leader of a lynch mob

Like, the central park 5 thing should have been more than enough for even the most repressed conservative in denial anout their own sublimated racism to deapise him. He wanted to change the law to execute children. He still maintains that these men were guilty

The ad is a paean to "hatred." Like, in the literal sense in that he says he wants to be allowed to "hate" criminals rather than see crime as a complex social problem

All of this is gratuitous to say on this board I guess but I still don't think we should forget about trumps
Enablers in the coming years

The only thing pence is apopleptic about is his political fortune moving forward

I really hope the Dems can capitalize on this in an effective way. They are shockingly bad at twisting the knife. EVERY Republican needs to be painted with the Trump brush. Even if they're able to bribe him to get out or there are some last-minute brokered shenanigans, the GOP needs to be synonymous with Trump for the foreseeable future. The way it should be synonymous with Sarah Palin, or that asshole Texas LT Gov tweeting about how those gays in Orlando "reaped what they sowed", or the Georgia Senator who read the verse from Psalm wishing an untimely death on Obama - the list goes on. These aren't talk radio loons. Excepting Palin, these are high-ranking office-holders. Even 'normal' guys like Paul Ryan should be tainted by the very fact that he has an (R) after his name

How often is Hillary campaigning with senators in key races? Obama? I haven't seen much discussion.

I don't know how much campaigning she's doing (outside of swing states), but much of the loot from fundraisers goes to the DNC and state parties.