What in God's Green Goodness Are We Up To In Afghanistan?

stayin' forever just like Richard Dreyfuss Cheney said in W.

https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/750715418524917761

The memos reveal that Mr Blair and Mr Bush were openly discussing toppling Saddam Hussein as early as December 2001, when the UK and US had just launched military action in Afghanistan.
"How we finish in Afghanistan is important to phase 2. If we leave it a better country, having supplied humanitarian aid and having given new hope to the people, we will not just have won militarily but morally; and the coalition will back us to do more elsewhere," says Mr Blair in the memo.
"We shall give regime change a good name which will help in our arguments over Iraq."

2016 update: Phase 1 still not going so well

where does this end, exactly?

― Roughage Crew (Enrique), Wednesday, July 5, 2006 5:11 AM (eleven years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/world/asia/afghanistan-trump-mineral-deposits.html

I actually drafted this earlier and lacked a place to put it:
1998: classmates in high school approach me with petition for the US to have a stance against the Taliban, citing murder of gay people and oppression of women under fundamentalist regime, which I sign
2001: Catastrophe. I worry about what is going to happen, but hold out optimism that the Taliban might at least fall
2017: Taliban at highest level of activity since mid-2000s. Headlines referring to US weapons having fallen into the wrong hands, and Russian arms possibly going to Taliban

everything is shit

More or less

Muddling Through

For the political science article, see Charles E. Lindblom.

Still the single greatest blog post ever, and unfortunately still completely timely: https://t.co/9ycCVZVwZX

— vastleft (@vastleft) August 22, 2017

Highest recommendations for Anand Gopal's No Good Men Among the Living: America, the Taliban, and the War through Afghan Eyes (2014).

The time to "win" in Afghanistan would have been 2002, when the Taliban was nowhere to be seen and Peshtun civilians were glad to be free of their yoke. But then to prove to higher-ups that they were doing something, US SOF started abducting political challengers named by local warlords like Agha Sherzai and Ahmed Wali Karzai (opium kingpin, brother to Hamid), offering bounties, and torturing (sometimes to death) the captured, sending many off to Gitmo without any evidence. By now, the U.S. has killed or arrested family or friends of nearly every Peshtun, so there's zero likelihood of peace before the US leaves.

a thread

The @NSArchive just released a huge amount (900+ pages) of memos from Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. I’m going through them now and picking out ones I find interesting. /threadhttps://t.co/FDFPwNaiI7

— Paul Szoldra (@PaulSzoldra) January 24, 2018

why stop now?

https://splinternews.com/u-s-commander-calls-for-end-to-war-in-afghanistan-1828776497

“It is time for this war in Afghanistan to end,” Nicholson said, simply

For some unknown reason the Taliban would rather win the war outright, so they can get down to the serious business of killing everyone who disagrees with them, well, killing them faster, at least. We can't seem to persuade them this is not a worthy use of their time and energy.

so if we're staying eternally, let's do statehood!

I have a hunch that if the US pulled out not only would Kabul fall very quickly, but shortly thereafter the Taliban be involved with fierce fighting with ISIS and maybe several independent warlords on the side. There are no good answers in any direction, but propping up the Kabul government will never lead anywhere better than the situation at present. Violent death, rampant corruption, and social instability are already baked into the next decade or more, with the only question being the exact distribution of these evils across the general population. And whether our military gets to share in that dubious bounty.

this sucks

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/us/timothy-bolyard-afghanistan-attack.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/world/asia/afghanistan-taliban-peace.html

The driver of a car that was stopped in the middle of the road, blocking traffic, was shocked when a passing motorist rolled down the window and shouted at him, “Dirty donkey.”

He was even more surprised when he looked up to see that the insult came from a woman. A woman driving a car. A woman driving a car without wearing the obligatory hijab.

That was Laila Haidari, who runs a popular cafe in Kabul that allows men and women to dine together, whether married or not, with or without a head scarf, and uses the profits to fund a rehabilitation clinic for drug addicts.

Nearly everyone addresses Ms. Haidari, 39, as “Nana,” or “Mom,” and her supporters describe her as the “mother of a thousand children,” after the number of Afghan addicts she has reportedly saved....

“Guys, the Taliban are coming back,” she said one day recently to a mixed group of diners at her restaurant, Taj Begum, which has been subjected to virulent attacks in the local media that have all but compared it to a brothel.

“We have to organize,” she told her customers. “I hope to find 50 other women who will stand up and say, ‘We don’t want peace.’ If the Taliban comes back, you will not have a friend like me, and there will be no restaurant like Taj Begum.”

The U.S. war in Afghanistan has been going on for so long that the newest troops weren't alive when it started. Meet Marine Pvt. Juan Tellez, born Nov. 6, 2001.https://t.co/wD5fiWOLSB pic.twitter.com/RyCXNd8zTR

— Capital Journal (@WSJPolitics) February 25, 2019

A confidential trove of government documents obtained by The Washington Post reveals that senior U.S. officials failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan throughout the 18-year campaign, making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.

The documents were generated by a federal project examining the root failures of the longest armed conflict in U.S. history. They include more than 2,000 pages of previously unpublished notes of interviews with people who played a direct role in the war, from generals and diplomats to aid workers and Afghan officials.

The U.S. government tried to shield the identities of the vast majority of those interviewed for the project and conceal nearly all of their remarks. The Post won release of the documents under the Freedom of Information Act after a three-year legal battle.

In the interviews, more than 400 insiders offered unrestrained criticism of what went wrong in Afghanistan and how the United States became mired in nearly two decades of warfare.

With a bluntness rarely expressed in public, the interviews lay bare pent-up complaints, frustrations and confessions, along with second-guessing and backbiting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-confidential-documents

where does this end, exactly?

― Roughage Crew (Enrique), Wednesday, July 5, 2006 2:11 AM (thirteen years ago

Not before issuing its own version of the Pentagon Papers, apparently.

Really. who could've seen this coming, except everyone outside the bubble?

amazing how fast these Papers got swept away, huh? OTM fills the gap. (scroll down)

https://www.npr.org/podcasts/452538775/on-the-media

me reading about the war in Afghanistan pic.twitter.com/d5GclhAVUh

— Shon 🏳️‍🌈 (@gayblackvet) June 10, 2021

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/02/world/asia/afghanistan-bagram-us-withdrawal.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

But we still have about 600 troops guarding the embassy. And we'll still be able to carry out airstrikes against Qaeda, ISIS, and to a lesser extent the Taliban!

Imagine showing this headline to someone in 2002 https://t.co/0fYTYKapRq

— Liam Stack (@liamstack) August 12, 2021

imagine showing that headline to some western liberal wanker politician in the 19th century - it would probably be quite reassuring to them

That up-thread photo of the Saigon evacuation is looking more germane than ever. Twenty years, countless lives, billions of dollars.. and for what?

I remember seeing some photos in late 2001 showing the bearded Special Forces guys on horseback, and thinking: "wow, maybe they're doing it right this time.. a small, surgical, limited action using local help.. this might work." Man was I wrong.

I can only imagine, once the Taliban has taken control of the entire country tonight or tomorrow or next week, that it's just a matter of time before something happens that draws international intervention again.

History has proven time and time again that the transition from bearded mountain fighters to capable, competent statesmen is a rocky one.. but I think Pakistan has secretly (or not so secretly) wanted them back in power for some time; not sure why.

" capable, competent statesmen "

I wouldn't be using this horrible bullshit phrase if I was from the US or even the UK because you can't equate power and wealth with competence.

Competence is measured by one's ability to form and reach difficult goals. The Taliban is extremely competent, but the difficult goals they aspire to are generally abhorrent to the standards of western liberals. Their competence at attaining their goals doesn't make those goals more palatable to anyone who believes, for example, that women should have a large measure of independence over their over lives, but the competence of the Taliban operating within the limits and strictures of their own society is obviously FAR beyond the competence of NATO nations operating within that same society.

Re: competence.

don’t know how to say this without sounding blackpilled or pro-Taliban, but one of the things that was true in 2009 was they took administrative competence 1000x more seriously than the Karzai government did, especially at the district level. Sounds like it hasn’t changed https://t.co/VQ09pFi94Z

— Nate (@inthesedeserts) August 13, 2021

You absolutely “gotta hand it to ‘em”

There’s basically no way to stop the Taliban from governing the country, as far as I can see, it’s just a question of whether it’s part of a national unity government or not.

reading all the posts before the time skip is pretty wild

bearded mountain fighters

wtf?

US should have never put down that big a footprint in Afghanistan in the first place, should have never invaded Iraq and a whole lot of other bullshit that has been tied to US Military industrial complex using Uncle Sam's credit cards for fun and profit across the world. Only saving grace of Trump's reign of error is that he did not accidentally stumble into starting the big one in Iran or North Korea - but knowing this stupid f'ing country, hey there is always next election cycle.

Were the Taliban ever not just going to retake the country the second we/anyone left, however they left?

They were already retaking the country and in doing so were inevitably going to force us/anyone else to leave, short of our committing insane amounts of resources to just hanging on to Kabul and a few other cities.

Al Arabiya is reporting that Ghani has stepped down and an interim government led by the Taliban is now running the country.

Hmm

Taliban spox speaking with BBC world rn. Says Afghanistan will be open for business with US and the US companies can keep on working on their public sector contracts

— M.S 🪁🌲🌳🌴🚴🚉🏙 (@ShaykShack) August 15, 2021

Probably casting a glance at Saudi Arabia and thinking, hey, if those assholes can rake in the big bucks, why stone ourselves in the foot when we can cash in first?

they do have guns in afghanistan

Blinken’s response to Tapper’s question on Taliban recognition:

“A future Afghan government that upholds the basic rights of its people and that doesn’t harbor terrorists is a government that we can work with and recognize.”

Says no aid/sanctions relief if they fail to do that.

— Arif Rafiq (@ArifCRafiq) August 15, 2021

Interesting to see how this will go down domestically.

Haven’t listened to NPR since about January 2017 and just turned it back on and nooooped the fuck out after about 3 minutes

tf do the NatSec assholes really think is going to happen when they push for this shit on the front end? Or on the back end of 20 YEARS of occupation? honestly hard to believe anyone takes these people seriously any more

“The Taliban is not the… North Vietnamese army… There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy… of the United States from Afghanistan" - President Joe Biden, July 8, 2021

Saigon, 1975 Kabul, 2021 pic.twitter.com/MKBymjduOM

— Nick Turse (@nickturse) August 15, 2021

was gonna say, 2nd post 15 years ago otm

President Ghani has fled the country.

this would be funny if it weren’t so unfunny

.

but I think Pakistan has secretly (or not so secretly) wanted them back in power for some time; not sure why.

― Andy the Grasshopper, Thursday, August 12, 2021 7:23 PM (three days ago) bookmarkflaglink

It is not a secret, Pakistan feared India would gain a massive foothold in Afghanistan and did a lot to prevent a complete disparition of Talibans, and is a sizeable part of why this whole thing is a failure. Once Russia and Iran started fuel and arm the Talibans it was too late for the US, even if it had the best intentions and a near perfect understanding of the region (it obviously had neither), success was impossible. Transforming a country on that scale is not something you can without neighbourhood nations being active positive stakeholders.

The whole withdrawal thing is a massive red herring if you care about interventionism anyway, I believe we are going to be drone bombing on a scale that we have never seen yet.

good lens to view the lasts 10 years of US policy in Afghanistan isn’t the intelligence/military failures, bad planning, or imperial hubris — but that it essentially became a huge defense spending and private contractor grift there was almost zero incentive to pul the plug on

— BO H (@bo_austin_) August 15, 2021