SOLAR POWER

there's no way this entire debacle doesn't get reversed at some pt imo - either because of lawsuits or political pressure

boo

I haven't posted or even been on ILX for a long time but this seems like a good time to decloak.

Naturally net-metering is important but providing parity payment is unsustainable and although the way it was handled in Nevada was utterly boneheaded it probably had to go in time. My understanding was that NV provided no-sunset for parity net metering payments and rather than closing the scheme for new installs pulled the rug from under existing owners. In a market with so many PPAs and people having bought into sola under assumptions of payback over time that was plain wrong.

Over here in Australia we've had all kinds of incentive scheme from Carbo based credits, generous (66c/kWh) and less generous gross metering, and net metering. Currently every new customer gets the carbon credit (Renewable Energy Target) up front and a net metering create of ~5c/kWh for the avoided wholesale cost of electricity. There is no credit for the avoided transmission and distribution costs and the benefit that that solar offers the network is not compensated for - that said the extra costs that solar customers (and those with big A/Cs and pools) impose not he network are not fairly distributed either.

All of this is leading to much more generous pricing and compensation models. We've had a regulatory process (called Power of Choice) which is leading to more cost reflective network pricing (Residential Demand Charges and or Time of Use) which will penalise A/C use and reduce the self-consumption benefit of solar (without storage). Further off It something I've been working on if the Local Generation Network Credit which is a proposed mechanism for compensating distributed generator owners for the value they do offer the network. It will go some way to recognise that solar on a residential zone sub at 2pm is not very useful but at 4pm it is very useful. There's a good description of the way it works in other jurisdictions in the briefing paper for one of the workshops I've been involved in.

https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/LNCVNM_towards_an_LNC_methodology.pdf

The TL;DR on this: this shit is complicated

thanks, gonna dig into that when I have time.

I am sympathetic to the "costs of distribution" argument in terms of reforming net metering, but as you note the retroactive penalty was where the PUC really fucked up in NV.

CA PUC smarter than NV PUC:

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Solar-companies-and-customers-win-big-in-6790872.php

great news

congress looking into some pre-emptive legislation forbidding retroactive net metering changes:

http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us-senators-move-to-preserve-solar-net-metering-through-energy-bill-amendment_100023050/#axzz3z6VXCpq9

Hope that passes, good on them. Murkowski being in charge is of course disgusting and counterproductive.

Ah but when everyone has a telsa powerwall the grid will no longer be of any concern!

incorrect, those batteries don't store enough power to run a house, the stored power is used for peak shaving and load reduction

they also quietly discontinued the larger model last week:

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Tesla-Discontinues-10kWh-Powerwall-Home-Battery

cuz guess what? they are just too expensive.

sad lol

someone really needs to crack this battery storage issue

i'm probably going to do a solar lease. I know this doesn't give me the tax benefits purchase would do, but I already owe the IRS money so on a monthly basis leasing saves me more. I'm guessing that CA already worked out the issues that are plaguing NV and ruining the industry for them over there.

recent CA PUC ruling preserving net metering is posted upthread

oddly I JUST NOW got a CREDO email saying that they are challenging that. Fuckers.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/mar/08/utilities-net-metering-decision/

so not gonna happen

good range of comments on that article

Galatians! lol

the key is to convert solar power to heated magma to be used later!

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/12/the-solar-industry-has-paid-off-its-carbon-debts/510308/

Well that's neat

more trade war details for anyone who is interested

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/suniva-solarworld-file-new-trade-remedy-proposals#gs.96pEz6E

as I mentioned in the Global Warming thread, one of the big problems with all of this is that four years isn't a long enough window to actually build cell factories if the tariffs that make them cost-effective disappear after that point.

Circa 1980 I bought a Casio solar-powered calculator, just the kind that does basic arithmetic operations. It has only just now bit the dust, after providing me with 37 years of faithful service and not a single battery required, let alone daily recharging. It was perfection of its kind. Of course, with mobile phones now performing the same functions, I will never be able to replace it.

Ha! I have such a Casio, bought at about the same time, and it's still working fine.

Mine was dropped once too often.

waiting for the penny to drop on Monday w/r/t tariffs or cell quotas

this speech does not bode well:

http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-will-no-longer-be-taken-advantage-of-on-trade-trumps-sharp-rebuke-to-china-20171110-gzj60v.html

idk that reads like his usual empty bluster

and nothing specific about the solar tariff issue

I know, I'm just paranoid.

The ITC recommended like four different options, nobody has any idea what's going to happen and it's the uncertainty that's wearing on me

60 more days of misery, uncertainly, market disruption, and fear. This is the worst.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/11/13/the-clock-ticks-itc-turns-section-201-over-to-president-trump/

pv magazine staff has found no sources that can tell us more about this confidential report, and ITC staff has stated that a public version will be released at an unspecified later date. {...}

In other words, President Trump can do just about anything. There are precious few limitations, but these include that initial trade action can last four years (and be extended to up to eight years), and that tariffs are limited to 50% of the price of products “above the rate existing before the proclamation of action”.

This last detail may be more complex than it first appears. While all the commissioners who recommended import duties would have the tariff values calculated on the cost when solar products enter the nation, SolarWorld and Suniva have asked for duties equal to 50% of the prices during timeframes covering previous years when solar cells and modules were much more expensive.

Neither SolarWorld nor Suniva has done much to mitigate these proposals, which we at pv magazine feel are dangerous and unreasonable.

"uncertainty"

dumbfucks

both of those companies can burn in hell, forever

so selfish and stupid

yeah it's rather remarkable

Other solar groups have stepped up to support the cause using social and advertising campaigns. A coalition of manufacturers, U.S. Made Solar, has been running TV advertisements during shows that President Trump watches regularly, such as Fox & Friends.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/solar-industry-makes-last-ditch-lobbying-against-solar-tariffs#gs.rMpfhZI

we'll know within two weeks, probably. good article.

30% tariff, could have been worse, hopefully Solar World and Suniva die now

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/breaking-trump-admin-issues-a-30-solar-tariff#gs.8mgzsVs

well looks like Solar World found a way out

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/sunpower-acquires-solarworld-americas#gs.E0HOHd0

Anyone here have experience getting solar at home? I've been intrigued for years, but the numbers seem completely unappetizing. When I put our address into the supposedly close to accurate free google solar calculator, for example (https://www.google.com/get/sunroof), it claims savings of $6000 over *20 years*. $300 a year for two decades seems a pretty paltry reward for putting five-figures into the system, even with (dwindling) tax write-offs and rebates. And yeah, floating somewhere in there is environmental impact, but on that front it seems much more efficient/easy to just find ways to use less power, or if you're feeling generous just donating that huge amount of upfront install cost to a food pantry or something, where every dollar given gets exponential returns.

I dunno. Am I looking at this all wrong?

(caveats: i don't own a home, and i haven't payed close attention to this stuff for a while)

i think you're generally looking at it in a reasonable way. a couple thoughts:

- solar panels are getting less expensive and are a lot cheaper than they used to be, but they still typically have long payback periods (the amount of time it takes to recoup the upfront cost) for individual homeowners.
- some utilities have amazing financing programs where they'll pay quite a bit of the upfront costs and gradually bill it to you on your utility statement every month. some don't.
- in general, solar is much more economical at scale. at some point if we don't have the dumbest person of all time as our president, maybe we'll upgrade our grid and energy policies so that individual homeowners with solar can even feed excess energy INTO the grid and make a little money. but instead we live in this world.
- you're spot on, i think, about looking for other ways to use less power and using that money for something else right now. you can get a free home energy audit (disclosure: i work in this field) from your utility that will identify energy saving measures, and in a lot of cases the utility will even install free equipment (smart thermostats, energy-saving aerators for faucets, etc). energy efficiency measures typically have a MUCH shorter payback period than solar panels on a roof.

oops, my link was broken. i meant to link to an image of concentrated solar power:

https://news.energysage.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/11.14.18_solar.jpg

curious to hear from people from other non-chicago places though! like i said, i haven't followed it closely in a while and it's possible that people in warm sunny progressive places are able to take advantage of residential solar in a more cost-efficient manner

final, contradictory, thought - if you're planning on staying in your house for 15 to 20 years (long enough to cover the payback period and start recouping costs) and have extra money, you should still consider it!
just know that in 5 years there will be better, cheaper solar and your neighbors will be putting it on their roofs and recouping their costs in 8 years instead of 15 (or whatever). the price of solar is likely to keep dropping, so the longer you wait, the better the deal. i'm sure there are people who put solar on their roofs 10 years ago that are insanely jealous of the current tech and prices.

final final thought: i don't think IL has a state tax credit for residential solar right now. if it were me and i had a home and some money, i'd wait until we get a state tax credit, in addition to the federal incentives.

Yeah, thanks for all that. We have a relatively new home, so everything is running pretty efficiently. Our total power bill last year was $1100, which ... doesn't seem that high. Now, if solar could take *$600* off the bill annually ... that would still be kinda low for the investment, since it's not even a sure thing we'll even be in this house for another 15-20 years; incredibly, we're (likely) empty nesters in about six!

I have three friends that have gotten or are about to get solar, and the stories/numbers/savings they cite just don't jibe with my (casual) research. I, too, would love to hear stories from places that are not Chicagoland, though.

detailed breakdowns for IL available here:

https://www.solarpowerrocks.com/illinois/

8-year payback period and 15.73% IRR on average

a lot of those saving are due to the 26% tax credit - do you have a tax burden? that's where the real savings are with this.

Thanks. It looks like the tax credit expires after 2021, and President Asshole could just order it ended tomorrow, couldn't he? Either way, in theory I'd get a 26% tax rebate for 2020, then 21% in 2021, then nothing after that. But if that website is more or less accurate, and the avg. savings is more or less what I pay in power annually, then yeah, 8 (or maybe 10) year payback seems possible. We have a consult with someone tomorrow, I'm curious what they say.

no the tax credit is 26% if you get it installed in 2020 - then, if the credit is more than your tax burden, you can spread the credit out over an up-to-five-year period. but it's a one-time credit, 26% of your total cost *including* installation.

the difference in payback times between states is based entirely on state or utility-based incentives, so if you have time dig in to the state incentives on that page.

According to that site it looks like IL offers no rebates or tax incentives.

ah yeah looks like the incentives ran out (that happens frequently)

this might help:

There is still hope for residents of Springfield and Chicago, which each have their own solar grant programs. Your installer (click here to see what you can save with solar power on your home) will give you all the details on those and any other grants and rebates you may qualify for.

for what it's worth I'm a big fan of the SMA inverters that have an optional outlet you can install that provides 15-amp 120V power during the day if there is a power outage