Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

Koplow says:

Turkey is in a serious bind now that its relationship with Russia has deteriorated in such a big way, and Israeli gas provides a way out. If Russia cancels the Turkish Stream project or even takes things one step further and halts natural gas shipments to Turkey entirely, Israeli gas won’t solve things in the short term but will provide a long term hedge against relying on Russia as a primary energy supplier. On the Israeli side, the simple truth is that no energy company is going to invest the resources to develop the Leviathan field without a viable export destination, and the two best large market options were always Egypt and Turkey. The first one is far less attractive now due to the recent Egyptian gas discoveries mitigating how much Israeli gas Egypt will want to buy over the long haul, leaving Turkey as the best destination remaining. There are still political hurdles to be overcome on both sides, and the technical hurdle of constructing a deepwater pipeline is nothing to sneeze at either, but the formal approval granted yesterday to Noble to develop Leviathan likely resulted directly from the reconciliation agreement with Turkey.

this round table looks really interesting too - i'll probably watch after work today:
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-syrian-crisis-and-israeli-security-challenges

very interesting Turkey info, ty

spooky article on drought in Iran

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/middleeast/scarred-riverbeds-and-dead-pistachio-trees-in-a-parched-iran.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

there's a country in the region w/ a highly developed desalination industry - maybe rapprochement is on the longterm agenda for iran?

wow more maybe big news, "The five permanent UN Security Council members have agreed the text of a draft UN resolution for the Syrian peace process, diplomats say."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35138011

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CU7HYk3UYAAAeQD.jpg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/notorious-lebanese-militant-reported-killed-in-airstrike-outside-syrian-capital/2015/12/20/07153e67-ed03-4fba-8bbd-a8936ef70422_story.html

A notorious Lebanese militant leader, viewed by the United States and Israel as a terrorist and deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, was killed late Saturday in an airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus.

Suspicion for the attack, which killed Samir Kuntar and at least eight others affiliated with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, immediately fell on Israel. Kuntar was released by Israel in 2008 after he spent three decades in prison for his role in the killing of three Israelis, including a 4-year-old girl and her father.

Hezbollah, which is embroiled in the Syrian war in support of the regime, said it would take revenge on Israel for Kuntar’s death. A few hours later, three rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, sending residents in towns along the border into bomb shelters. There were no reports of casualties, and the Israeli military said it responded with targeted artillery fire at sites in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it “holds the Lebanese Army responsible for attacks emanating from its territory.”

In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV station confirmed Kuntar’s death, reporting early Sunday that four Israeli missiles had struck a residential building in Jaramana, just outside Damascus, the Syrian capital.

on that note: http://imgur.com/Ys1nuCs

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/19/un-resolution-syria-creates-framework-yawning-gaps-assad

The resolution creates a framework, but one that leaves yawning gaps between its timbers. It is not clear whether the regime will show up to the January talks brokered by the UN special envoy, Staffan di Mistura, though Damascus will presumably come under strong pressure from Moscow and Tehran to attend.

There are also a lot of questions of the relationship between the Riyadh opposition and the balance of forces inside rebel-held territory. If the disconnect is too great, the talks will lead nowhere and will not bring a ceasefire. But inclusivity brings with it a cost.

Neither the protagonists nor their international sponsors agree on the list of terrorist groups to be excluded. There is consensus on Islamic State (now known to almost all parties by the Arabic acronym Daesh), and near-consensus on the al-Nusrah Front. After that, agreement breaks down. And the discord was evident from the contrasting tone of the remarks from John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov after the resolution was passed. Russia is currently bombing groups and communities supported by the west.

Jordan was given the job of distinguishing between the acceptable and unacceptable but has essentially passed the buck, simply collating the differing views of the outside powers.

i wonder if hezbollah could survive nasrallah's assassination at this point - the whole party seems tenuous atm.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ex-wife-of-Lebanese-terrorist-Samir-Kuntar-says-his-death-was-justified-438055

Kuntar's ex-wife believes that regardless of who killed him, her ex-husband's murder was justified because his intention was not to fight against Israel but to harm Syrians and the Palestinian people.

"Kuntar and Hezbollah are on the Arab land of Syria not in order to fight Israel, the Zionist enemy, or any aggression," she said in an interview with the Saudi al-Arabia Network.

"They are there to fight the Syrian people and the Palestinian people. We show no solidarity with murderers. Murders should be killed," she added.

I mean one would hope she'd condemn him for murdering a family including 2 young children (the horrific details can be read on the wiki page) but you can only expect so much.

(trigger warning: i have a strong tolerance for such things and i felt nauseated reading about what he did)

i can't believe they broadcast this kind of filth on al-j - essentially advocating for genocide against alawites

that is kind of unbelievable. are those polls a plausible reflection of wider sunni sentiment?

2012 tales of Sunni hatred of Alawites

If the fighters seeking to oust Mr. Assad sometimes portray their battle as a struggle for democracy, the Sunni Muslim children of the Zaatari camp tell a much uglier story of sectarian revenge. Asked for their own views of the grown-up battle that drove them from their homes, child after child brought up their hatred of the Alawites and a thirst for revenge. Children as young as 10 or 11 vowed never to play with Syrian Alawite children or even pledged to kill them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/in-syrian-conflict-children-speak-of-revenge-against-alawites.html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35192109

For IS the loss of Ramadi was inevitable almost from the start but permanent control was probably not their goal. Instead, IS has repeatedly used Ramadi to distract the ISF from attacking the Islamic State's stronghold in Mosul, 450km (280 miles) to the north.....More likely, the slow preparatory phases of the battle for Mosul will now unfold in the first half of 2016.
First, IS' next defensive bulwarks will be ground down - the oil refining hub Qayyarah and other Tigris River Valley towns south of Mosul.
Then the city will be slowly encircled in the summer and air strikes will intensify on IS leadership and logistical targets. Then the assault will begin once the summer heat dies down in the autumn of 2016.

Wow, not till Autumn 2016...

new thread: Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!