Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

Kerry heads to Moscow for tough Syria, Ukraine talks... "We are not playing 'Let's Make a Deal' here," the official said. "We are not trading Ukraine for Syria."

Can Kerry get the Russians to stop this tactic--

Aid agencies are warning of a worsening humanitarian crisis in northern Syria as sharply intensified Russian airstrikes paralyze aid supply routes, knock out bakeries and hospitals and kill and maim civilians in growing numbers.

Air attacks have escalated significantly since Turkey shot down a Russian warplane along the Turkey-Syria border on Nov. 24, the aid agencies say, with Russia responding to the incident by stepping up its effort to crush the anti-government rebellion in the insurgent-held provinces bordering Turkey.

Among the targets that have been hit are the border crossings and highways used to deliver humanitarian supplies from Turkey, forcing many aid agencies to halt or curtail their aid operations and deepening the misery for millions of people living in the affected areas, according to a report this month by the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Hospitals and health facilities also have been struck, reducing the availability of medical care for those injured in the bombings. According to the U.N. report, at least 20 medical facilities have been hit nationwide in Syria since Russia launched its air war on Sept. 30.

“This is an emerging humanitarian crisis. There is extreme suffering, and people are not being protected,” said Rae McGrath, country director for Turkey and North Syria for the American aid agency Mercy Corps, one of the largest providers of food aid in northern Syria. Since the Russian strikes began, the agency has been able to deliver only a fifth of the amount it normally provides, he said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/russian-airstrikes-force-a-halt-to-aid-in-syria-triggering-a-new-crisis/2015/12/14/cebc4b66-9f87-11e5-9ad2-568d814bbf3b_story.html

If I didn't know better I'd say Putin tries to escalate the refugee crisis to the point of massive civil unrest in Europe, then have Russian troops move in as a peacekeeping force? And I don't know better. After years of sanctions and COP21 the military is his only bargaining chip, and turning his opponents' weaknesses against themselves is very much Putin's style.

Of course there's a way to stop recession-fueled right-wing Fortress Europe demagogues dead in their tracks - a UBI, which enjoys growing support - but the over-aged political €stablishment isn't quite ready for that kind of sci-fi tomfoolery.

idk if that's Putin's plan. it requires too much cooperation on behalf of Europe to continue to accept any number of refugees (and it isn't clear there's the political will in Europe for that).

i dont think there are enough people in syria to destabilise europe to the point where troops are required, let alone extra foreign troops

The refugees themselves aren't the problem. The problem is fascists and "concerned citizens" beating refugees in the streets, hurling insults and bottles at Syrian children, and torching their shelters. Hundreds of shelters were burned down in Germany this year - most of them not yet occupied, though - and the number of incidents per week keeps rising.

the problem in a democracy is always the radicalization of the polity under stress

If I didn't know better I'd say Putin tries to escalate the refugee crisis to the point of massive civil unrest in Europe, then have Russian troops move in as a peacekeeping force?

Lol, no.

I just don't see how it could get to that point, and even if it were possible, action would be taken long before it was reached

if you do believe that the causes of the current refugee crisis are not merely political (ie the climate change hypothesis) then there are enough ppl in the middle east to dramatically shift the demographic identity of europe (not to mention the current below replacement level birthrates). but i imagine that europe would close the borders long before this kind of right-wing dystopian fantasy came true.

if the entire middle east had to be evacuated that wld present problems yes

one thing putin seems to have learned from chechnya is not to have the kind of full-scale occupying force he did in that conflict.

did he? chechnya was in his backyard, he was committed totally to keeping it under control, and it seems like so far his very heavy-handed response to the separatism has been successful. i just don't think he sees a need for it in, eg, syria.

heavy-handed, maybe, but done mostly by (putatively) covert ops and proxies.... maybe i'm wrong; i'm certainly no russia expert.

me neither, but we're talking about 1999 right and the events that followed the apartment building bombing? i thought there was a full-scale invasion w/ ground troops.

Chechnya is part of Russia so idk if occupation is the term. There was a combination of ground troops, air strikes and local militias.

Not sure any escalated bombing is more than doubling down to show Erdogan not to shoot at any more planes.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2015/1215/Why-Saudi-Arabia-s-coalition-against-terrorists-might-not-be-all-it-appears

Saudi window dressing...Not really surprising

http://www.timesofisrael.com/a-third-of-hezbollahs-fighters-said-killed-or-injured-in-syria/

http://i63.tinypic.com/ighkco.png

Hailey is not likely to be appointed as a National Security Advisor, so we may all breathe a bit easier.

Taliban vs. ISIS fite!

Interesting.

Meanwhile, talks at the UN today should solve everything in Syria!

UNITED NATIONS — Diplomats from more than a dozen countries were expected to meet Friday morning in New York, with an eye to drawing the Syrian war to a close and to focusing the world’s attention on the threat of the Islamic State. But whether they can put aside their rivalries and fulfill promises they have made in pursuit of a cease-fire and peace talks by January remains unclear.

At issue is whether the world powers that all have large stakes in the war can end the fighting — and with it, help stem the refugee crisis in Europe and the threat posed by the Islamic State.

This is the third meeting of the so-called International Syria Support Group, which also includes the Arab League and the European Union. The group is led by the top envoys of the United States and Russia, and it includes the regional rivals Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which have vastly different agendas in Syria.

The last two rounds of talks, held in Vienna in October and November, produced a road map for diplomacy: a cease-fire by January; talks between the Syrian government and opposition parties, mediated by the United Nations; and elections in 18 months.

The talks this week aim to produce a United Nations Security Council resolution by the end of the day. That resolution is intended to give the international support group and the road map for peace the Council’s blessing, diplomats say, but it has been held up by crucial differences between Russia and the United States.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/middleeast/syria-talks-isis.html?_r=0

‪‎Israel‬ and ‪‎Turkey‬ have just agreed to renew full diplomatic ties.

Koplow says:

Turkey is in a serious bind now that its relationship with Russia has deteriorated in such a big way, and Israeli gas provides a way out. If Russia cancels the Turkish Stream project or even takes things one step further and halts natural gas shipments to Turkey entirely, Israeli gas won’t solve things in the short term but will provide a long term hedge against relying on Russia as a primary energy supplier. On the Israeli side, the simple truth is that no energy company is going to invest the resources to develop the Leviathan field without a viable export destination, and the two best large market options were always Egypt and Turkey. The first one is far less attractive now due to the recent Egyptian gas discoveries mitigating how much Israeli gas Egypt will want to buy over the long haul, leaving Turkey as the best destination remaining. There are still political hurdles to be overcome on both sides, and the technical hurdle of constructing a deepwater pipeline is nothing to sneeze at either, but the formal approval granted yesterday to Noble to develop Leviathan likely resulted directly from the reconciliation agreement with Turkey.

this round table looks really interesting too - i'll probably watch after work today:
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/the-syrian-crisis-and-israeli-security-challenges

very interesting Turkey info, ty

spooky article on drought in Iran

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/19/world/middleeast/scarred-riverbeds-and-dead-pistachio-trees-in-a-parched-iran.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=photo-spot-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

there's a country in the region w/ a highly developed desalination industry - maybe rapprochement is on the longterm agenda for iran?

wow more maybe big news, "The five permanent UN Security Council members have agreed the text of a draft UN resolution for the Syrian peace process, diplomats say."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35138011

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CU7HYk3UYAAAeQD.jpg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/notorious-lebanese-militant-reported-killed-in-airstrike-outside-syrian-capital/2015/12/20/07153e67-ed03-4fba-8bbd-a8936ef70422_story.html

A notorious Lebanese militant leader, viewed by the United States and Israel as a terrorist and deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, was killed late Saturday in an airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus.

Suspicion for the attack, which killed Samir Kuntar and at least eight others affiliated with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, immediately fell on Israel. Kuntar was released by Israel in 2008 after he spent three decades in prison for his role in the killing of three Israelis, including a 4-year-old girl and her father.

Hezbollah, which is embroiled in the Syrian war in support of the regime, said it would take revenge on Israel for Kuntar’s death. A few hours later, three rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, sending residents in towns along the border into bomb shelters. There were no reports of casualties, and the Israeli military said it responded with targeted artillery fire at sites in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it “holds the Lebanese Army responsible for attacks emanating from its territory.”

In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV station confirmed Kuntar’s death, reporting early Sunday that four Israeli missiles had struck a residential building in Jaramana, just outside Damascus, the Syrian capital.

on that note: http://imgur.com/Ys1nuCs

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/19/un-resolution-syria-creates-framework-yawning-gaps-assad

The resolution creates a framework, but one that leaves yawning gaps between its timbers. It is not clear whether the regime will show up to the January talks brokered by the UN special envoy, Staffan di Mistura, though Damascus will presumably come under strong pressure from Moscow and Tehran to attend.

There are also a lot of questions of the relationship between the Riyadh opposition and the balance of forces inside rebel-held territory. If the disconnect is too great, the talks will lead nowhere and will not bring a ceasefire. But inclusivity brings with it a cost.

Neither the protagonists nor their international sponsors agree on the list of terrorist groups to be excluded. There is consensus on Islamic State (now known to almost all parties by the Arabic acronym Daesh), and near-consensus on the al-Nusrah Front. After that, agreement breaks down. And the discord was evident from the contrasting tone of the remarks from John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov after the resolution was passed. Russia is currently bombing groups and communities supported by the west.

Jordan was given the job of distinguishing between the acceptable and unacceptable but has essentially passed the buck, simply collating the differing views of the outside powers.

i wonder if hezbollah could survive nasrallah's assassination at this point - the whole party seems tenuous atm.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ex-wife-of-Lebanese-terrorist-Samir-Kuntar-says-his-death-was-justified-438055

Kuntar's ex-wife believes that regardless of who killed him, her ex-husband's murder was justified because his intention was not to fight against Israel but to harm Syrians and the Palestinian people.

"Kuntar and Hezbollah are on the Arab land of Syria not in order to fight Israel, the Zionist enemy, or any aggression," she said in an interview with the Saudi al-Arabia Network.

"They are there to fight the Syrian people and the Palestinian people. We show no solidarity with murderers. Murders should be killed," she added.

I mean one would hope she'd condemn him for murdering a family including 2 young children (the horrific details can be read on the wiki page) but you can only expect so much.

(trigger warning: i have a strong tolerance for such things and i felt nauseated reading about what he did)

i can't believe they broadcast this kind of filth on al-j - essentially advocating for genocide against alawites

that is kind of unbelievable. are those polls a plausible reflection of wider sunni sentiment?

2012 tales of Sunni hatred of Alawites

If the fighters seeking to oust Mr. Assad sometimes portray their battle as a struggle for democracy, the Sunni Muslim children of the Zaatari camp tell a much uglier story of sectarian revenge. Asked for their own views of the grown-up battle that drove them from their homes, child after child brought up their hatred of the Alawites and a thirst for revenge. Children as young as 10 or 11 vowed never to play with Syrian Alawite children or even pledged to kill them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/in-syrian-conflict-children-speak-of-revenge-against-alawites.html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35192109

For IS the loss of Ramadi was inevitable almost from the start but permanent control was probably not their goal. Instead, IS has repeatedly used Ramadi to distract the ISF from attacking the Islamic State's stronghold in Mosul, 450km (280 miles) to the north.....More likely, the slow preparatory phases of the battle for Mosul will now unfold in the first half of 2016.
First, IS' next defensive bulwarks will be ground down - the oil refining hub Qayyarah and other Tigris River Valley towns south of Mosul.
Then the city will be slowly encircled in the summer and air strikes will intensify on IS leadership and logistical targets. Then the assault will begin once the summer heat dies down in the autumn of 2016.

Wow, not till Autumn 2016...

new thread: Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!