The very real possibility that vinyl will outlive CD - T or F?

that's great!

you can all come over! once i get a day off. and my kids are in school. and i am not dog tired all the time. then we will party.

"That said, I'd be a little surprised if vinyl outlives CD by that much — eventually people who bought music as a physical object are going to pass on, and all these objects will seem like player pianos or something."

never underestimate the appeal of a "physical object". i'll give you three examples from the closet:

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2364/2048947638_c578ebbee5.jpg?v=0

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2034/2048947584_4140446999.jpg?v=0

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2191/2048159015_309c444655.jpg?v=0

also: i think the niche market for vinyl will only increase, while the cd-buying public still keeps growing smaller. my music purchasing nowadays mainly consists of my emusic subscription and perusing vinyl bins, and sometimes buying vinyl at shows. i haven't bought a cd since i think march. however, i do get a lot of free cds from work, and my ipod is currently busted so i've been listening to cds in the car/while running, so there is that. overall though, i'm either in the living room curled up with a record, or i'm listening on the compy. and so it goes.

driving -- this is one area where i will continue to use cds for a long time. the ipod-radio-frequency thing doesn't work too well and doesn't sound very good. considering i just got my car last year, i will continue to use cds in the car for as long as i have this car. hopefully that'll be a while. toyotas last a long time.

our tape decks are busted in both cars for the time being, so i just listen to the radio. although i wouldn't mind having a cd player in the car.

CDs deteriorate and will become unplayable. some made in the 80's are already doing this. as they become useless, digital files will replace them. vinyl will still be just fine 100 years from now, and there will be some insane motherfuckers still collecting it and hopefully deejaying with it then. vinyl will win yet again.

the only cds i've seen deteriorate have been from the PDO plant, the ones made with bad lacquer. and i had an edwyn collins 2cd that inexplicably delaminated in a weird spiderweb pattern. but the rest seem fine.

fuck PDO.. wouldn't be so bad if not for all those vinyl japan discs that are fucked up and won't be reissued

Everyone's a vinyl fetishist and creates a huge vinyl collection that they worship.

Then they try and move it and suddenly hard drives seem really sweet.

(Scott is the great exception. Scott is beyond good and evil.)

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/01/14/DD86984.DTL&type=tech_article

some say that this was corrected, some don't. i know CDRs have a really bad problem, i have ones that are less than 10 years old and they are dead. they were not cheapos either!

never underestimate the appeal of a "physical object". i'll give you three examples from the closet:

About classical on vinyl: as far as I know no one ever represses old recordings. I do know a librarian who doesn't bother with CDs and just collects pristine classical records, but he also runs a rare book collection. I wonder how many people find the classical experience better or more "authentic" on vinyl: to a large extent the music predated physical media (Scott's opera sets all exceptions, as it happens), so the authenticity doesn't seem to matter that much unless you're attracted to particular interpretations, conductors and players (as people are, of course).

CDs deteriorate and will become unplayable. some made in the 80's are already doing this. as they become useless, digital files will replace them.
Collectors might still care about things like the fancy jewel case for Pet Shop Boys' Very, though. Those CDs that have deteriorated were poorly manufactured — as far as I know there's no CD rot among my 1500 or so discs. But I don't think anyone knows how long CDs in general really will last. In principle I understand why vinyl should last longer as an object, but in terms of listening I doubt it can achieve the transparency of digital audio (for those who value it). For that, sure, you have digital files that will last forever provided they keep being moved around, since no storage device really has permanence. It's not impossible to imagine certain things being "forgotten" in the process, though.

Apologies for verbosity ("It's so bodacious to be loquacious").

Multiple x-posts (I just wanted to try typing "x-post" and see what it felt like)

No one's suggesting that CDs will be supplanted by a higher quality storage medium? This is probably as big a shock from what would've been said 10 years ago as saying LPs would return. You'll have to pry my iPod from my cold dead fingers, but I still prefer CDs for sound quality. (And I've never been without a turntable connected to my system since I started buying music 30+ years ago, but I really don't buy vinyl any more unless it's something I'm only casually interested in and cheap.)

"No one's suggesting that CDs will be supplanted by a higher quality storage medium?

-- nickn"

i think people have learned their lesson in digital hard copies. there will always be something "better" in terms of specs, so keeping digital stuff all soft is much more efficient, especially as storage gets cheaper and cheaper. the ipod like device will remain pretty good for a while, but will get larger and larger storage capacity, lower power consumption, and different decoding algorithims. at some point im sure DVD quality audio will be able to be played from a personal player like that. but the songs will all be purchased soft.

LPs never left for them to have to return! if you want good sound quality, digital is ALWAYS an approximation of the analogue waveform. vinyl IS the analogue waveform.

vinyl IS the analogue waveform.

it really isn't.

"vinyl IS the analogue waveform.

it really isn't.

-- electricsound"

youre right, it is a digital approximation of the analogue waveform. or not.

I meant "return" as in return to dominance. I still wonder about bandwidth for downloading CD-quality (or better) digital music. Are we there yet?

x-post here
And vinyl is also an approximation of the actual analogue waveform (which is *never* vinyl). And not necessarily a better one than CD.

I'm thinking in the future maybe some solid-state memory version of albums that you plug into a player, where there's no moving parts so that portability is equal to mp3s.

"And vinyl is also an approximation of the actual analogue waveform (which is *never* vinyl). And not necessarily a better one than CD.

-- nickn"

that is news to me. when you record something, you turn it into a voltage which is a continuous waveform. any "approximations" are errors in the recording which would also be present digitally. in digital music, that voltage is then sent through an A-D converter which will be limited in frequency and dynamic depth much moreso than the original waveform. then you store that, and then D-A that signal into something that is an approximation of the waveform. analogue just stores that continuous waveform as it was recorded! sure, there are some limitations to the vinyl medium, but i dont think it is nearly as much to worry about.

A waveform in the air is not a waveform on vinyl. Air->microphone->voltage->lathe->master->stamped vinyl is a long chain of degradation.

And aren't most recordings nowadays done on digital recording devices anyway? That prized indie vinyl was probably produced from a string of ones and zeroes, so you may as well not degrade it any more by going the lathe->master->stamped vinyl route but rather going straight to the best digital form you can get.

"And aren't most recordings nowadays done on digital recording devices anyway?"

all convert an analogue signal to a digital one. to the best of my knowledge, there isnt anything that can record as 1's and 0's.

"That prized indie vinyl was probably produced from a string of ones and zeroes, so you may as well not degrade it any more by going the lathe->master->stamped vinyl route but rather going straight to the best digital form you can get.

-- nickn"

that is assuming that said band/artist used digital recording, which is likely but not certain. i know some people who own a recording studio that has all analogue equipment so i know there are some people who are still interested in recording analogue style.

The point is that once a signal is converted to digital, you can't remake it as analog without suffering the problems you were concerned with initially (this: "if you want good sound quality, digital is ALWAYS an approximation of the analogue waveform. vinyl IS the analogue waveform.")

But I don't want to get into a vinyl vs. CD battle, I originally posted to decry the race from decent sound (CDs) to just barely acceptable sound (mp3s). I really don't think vinyl will come back in any form comparable to the 70s, for example.

http://www.archives.gov/records-mgmt/initiatives/temp-opmedia-faq.html

6. How long can I expect my recorded CDs/DVDs to last?

CD/DVD experiential life expectancy is 2 to 5 years even though published life expectancies are often cited as 10 years, 25 years, or longer. However, a variety of factors discussed in the sources cited in FAQ 15, below, may result in a much shorter life span for CDs/DVDs. Life expectancies are statistically based; any specific medium may experience a critical failure before its life expectancy is reached. Additionally, the quality of your storage environment may increase or decrease the life expectancy of the media. We recommend testing your media at least every two years to assure your records are still readable.

that might be a little alarmist ("statistically based" + they may actually be talking about CD-ROMS?), but i think it's accurate to say that people are discovering that CDs have a shorter lifespan than what manufacturers originally claimed, much shorter than vinyl at least. and then with digital files, who knows what you'll have to migrate how often in order to keep it playable in twenty years. hard to argue with vinyl as a longer-term investment that actually works, not just a physical 'collectible' object.

Oh no, Vinyl Japan stuff is no good? How old are we talking here? I have a bunch of mid/late-90s Flaming Stars CDs which I haven't listened to in an age but still consider somewhat treasured possessions.

I've also got a lot of self-released / small pressing CD-Rs in a drawer somewhere, most of which are now unavailable and some of which are getting pretty old in CD-R terms. I'm a bit scared to see how many of those are now dead, but at some point I'd better get them mp3ed, if not transferred losslessly.

I had a CDR with some early Southpark episodes, along with the original original ones (the christmas card one, where "Kenny" is the fat kid), dug it out not so long ago and even though it had been stored in a perfectly benign storage space, the disc was completely transparent and unreadable.

I though the CD deteroriation problem was only with the very first CDs, and the problem has been solved ever since. None of my late 80s or early 90s CDs have had any problems, except if they've been physically scratched. Has anyone actually come across a deteriorated original CD? Burned CDs are obviously a different case, I think they last for a shorter time. Strgn's link most likely refers to those.

(x-post)

sure, there are some limitations to the vinyl medium, but i dont think it is nearly as much to worry about.

The limitations to vinyl are certainly something to worry about if you're a mastering engineer! Sum to mono below about 80Hz, roll off completely below that, HF response tails off pretty rapidly about 15k for most releases, never better than 70-75dB dynamic range - it all adds up to a greater set of limitations than the much-maligned CD.

However, it doesn't necessarily mean that those restrictions are as deleterious to sound quality as the hard limits of 16/44.1 digital - they can actually be pretty euphonic (and they force the cutting engineer to be pretty creative and careful in order to attain the best possible results for any given slab of wax).

Even in the world of all-analogue recording/mixing, dubbing the stereo master to 24/96k digital HDD using good convertors would seem to be the way to go (it's like pouring a large jug into a bucket). And you can dither/noise-shape/SRC that down to CD standard with surprisingly little loss of audible material (like pouring the bucket into a deceptively-wide conical flask, with a bit of drippage down the side). Getting it on to vinyl is a bit more like a long series of tubes and valves, drip-drip-dripping it into a milk bottle that's still got some old milk in it. I'm all about the bad analogies today.

haha

otm

Anyway, the 15 year average life span mentioned by this Albini guy (in the article Pipecock linked to) seems patently untrue, in 1992 I think there were already millions of CDs sold, you'd think someone would've noticed if they had started to deteriorate in large quantities.

this Albini guy

oh Tuomas I love you
(no, there isn't much reason why someone who doesn't like "rock" should know/care who Albini is, just a bit surprised after all these years on ILX...)

CDs were a decade old in 1992 but they hadn't been widely available for very long at all. My father has slight delusions of audiophilia and we got a CD player before anyone else I knew except his totally dedicated hi-fi buff friend; that must've been 91, I think. And there've been articles about CD rot going round for as long as ILM's been going. So even if 15 years is a fair estimate it'd still be possible that we hadn't yet hit the point where the general public would start noticing en masse that their oldest CDs don't work. I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing more and more of that over the next few years.

I have a very few 15-year-old CDs myself, but how often do I drag out the old ones now? Not very at all. They might all be unplayable, I'd have no idea.

But if the "average" age of a CD was 15 years, like that guys suggests, then the majority of CDs that were made in 1992 or earlier would be useless now, and I think someone would've noticed such a massive phenomenon.

I play my old CDs all the time (I have converted only a few of the on my computer), and there seems to be nothing wrong with them. My oldest CDs are from 1982 or 1983, and even those work fine.

I want to sing Merge's praises for letting me download GaGaGaGa Ga for free after purchasing the vinyl. Are they doing that for all their releases? And shouldn't everybody?

Yes, and I really wish I had had this option with the Robert Wyatt album because I am on vacation and really wanted to have it on the iPod, but didn't have time to rip it. Get on the ball, Domino!

also some discussion of CD deterioration on my "Data Migration" thread.

They should have this in the back of Diaries, along with the port lists:

1991 - tiring, play out or burn to wavs

I hope CDs don't go away simply so people can still have CD players and I can give people CD Rs. I know I could send them to people via e-mail or something, but I don't really have an online relationship with the majority of the people I know.

Both formats (vinyl and CD) are dead.

explain pls.

Published a couple weeks before that Wired piece:

http://billboard.biz/bbbiz/content_display/industry/e3i26138003c343f1a1dd13ec2504e24872?imw=Y

Against all expectations, the vinyl album has refused to disappear into oblivion like the formats—cylinders, 78s, reel-to-reels and 8-track tapes—that fell before it. Numbers, in fact, show that it's actually enjoying renewed interest in the United States.

Vinyl is so fashionable right now that some retailers, like indie merchant Rob Roth of Fords, N.J.'s, Vintage Vinyl, are even predicting it will "outlast the CD." But others wonder if all the anecdotal testimony about vinyl's sales growth really amounts to a meaningful niche market, or whether the format is just the latest flavor in the industry's seemingly endless hype machine.

As one major-label distribution executive puts it, "I hear everyone talking about vinyl. But I just don't get it."

Sure, vinyl shows big growth percentages, but it's growing from an extremely small base. As of Oct. 28, vinyl albums have scanned 766,000 units—up 22.4% from the 612,000 units scanned in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. What's more, vinyl is outselling the cassette album, which has scanned 247,000 units year to date, by a little more than 3-to-1. But the vinyl album still consists of only 0.02% of total album sales. In contrast, digital sales are now 10.7% of album sales and increasing.

On the other hand, some say so much activity has been bubbling around vinyl in 2007, especially in the second half of the year, that it would be more prudent to await the final tallies of this year's data before assessing how the format is performing. That's because label executives almost unanimously say they are now putting out more vinyl.

They're still making cassette albums?

so CDs still account for 90% of album sales? that's hardly dying, even if digital sales are steadily increasing.

Has anyone actually come across a deteriorated original CD?

"hello implant by eat static.
shame i will never be able to listen to you again due to that chronic case of rot."

apart from the odd PDO related crap, i love the cd format.
the ease of the format makes them the essential option for me.
if i had the time and space, and the right type of hi-fi, then i could continue with my vinyl collection, especially as its the de facto format for techno it seems in 2007, but family life and work makes this impractical.
having said that, i really hate digipacks, as those muthas just get messed up badly.
long live the new rounded corner super jewel box.

buying vinyl + illegal download for my ipod is my preferred format now.

matt h OTM i just need to get that ipod nowwww

This thread contains a disconcerting amount of wishful thinking.

They're still making cassette albums?

For sale in truckstops, gas stations, and Indian grocery stores (among possible other places), apparently. Though I'm not really sure how sales in those places wind up registering on SoundScan.

This thread contains a disconcerting amount of wishful thinking.

-- The Reverend, Tuesday, 20 November 2007 16:21 (11 minutes ago) Link

i'm not naive, i'm not saying that vinyl will become dominant in the market like CDs were in the 1990s, moving billions of units worldwide, etc...

i said "OUTLIVE"...and i still think that's right...i meant that as physical formats like CD decline, there's enough of of an small enthusiast/collector/audiophile market to make it survive long past the time CD is dead.

so no i'm not some silly pollyanna, i get that digital mp3 or some similar format will be the dominant format in the future, i was just observing that i think the odds are better that -- as a physical format -- vinyl will be being manufactured after CDs have stopped.

Everyone's a vinyl fetishist and creates a huge vinyl collection that they worship.

Then they try and move it and suddenly hard drives seem really sweet.

(Scott is the great exception. Scott is beyond good and evil.)

-- Ned Raggett, Tuesday, November 20, 2007 3:01 AM (13 hours ago) Bookmark Link

i dunno it's not that hard to carry some crates of records once every few years.

Sure, vinyl shows big growth percentages, but it's growing from an extremely small base. As of Oct. 28, vinyl albums have scanned 766,000 units—up 22.4% from the 612,000 units scanned in the corresponding period last year, according to Nielsen SoundScan. What's more, vinyl is outselling the cassette album, which has scanned 247,000 units year to date, by a little more than 3-to-1. But the vinyl album still consists of only 0.02% of total album sales. In contrast, digital sales are now 10.7% of album sales and increasing.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

http://foetusized.org/cdrot.html

Yeah I recently threw away all my books, plus my couch. Too heavy!

never underestimate the appeal of a "physical object". i'll give you three examples from the closet:

-- scott seward, Monday, November 19, 2007 8:23 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

this is a goofy thread, so here's a goofy story. shit, i think i even told it to 69 when i met him, i probably sound like a windbag here.

moving apartments, we wanted to lighten the load and get some cash. sold a bunch of unwanted records and books. anth0ny from rad1o 4 was there rifling through piles of my records, pulling stuff for himself and his store. then this stylish woman in her twenties comes by and takes a look at a few titles and freaks out at me:

"OMG, you're selling these Bob Marley records for $5 each? You should be selling them for like.. $25 each at least!"

"Well, I'll tell you what, take all 6 for $20 or make me an offer, since I can see you're pretty excited to find them."

"Oh wow! But, but.. but I don't have a turntable.."

as she walked away, anth0ny just looked up and shook his head in disgust.

also take any Soundscan numbers for vinyl and double, maybe triple them to get the real number, as all the indie stores I go too -- which sell the majority of vinyl -- don't report to Soundscan.

This is a very important point.