Jumping the Gun: the Carlos Correa Thread

Suggested nickname: Carlos the Jackal. This may look as silly two or five years from now as if I'd started a Garry Templeton thread in 1978, but at the moment, where would you take him in an unrestricted building-a-franchise draft? For me, after Trout/Harper 1-2 in some order, it'd be a case of him or Kershaw third. I'd probably take Kershaw, with zero confidence that I was making the right decision.

http://cconnect.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/2013-Bowman-Chrome-Carlos-Correa-214x300.jpg

i've watched his impressive statline but i've barely seen him play at all this season, so can't say much. but (honest question, not snarky) what makes him stand out even more than...bryant, lindor, sano, conforto, [insert your pet 2015 rookie superstar here]??

His age and position. Looking at Bryant, I think the upside difference between a 20-year-old shortstop and a 23-year-old first baseman is rather large. Sano's 22 and has mostly DH'd this year--don't know what he's like in the field. James used to study this stuff; his level of production at age 20 is, historically, significant. (Which is not to say that there haven't been other 20-year-olds at a similar level of production who didn't pan out. But not too many, I don't think.)

Sorry, Bryant's third base. That does strengthen his case, but the age difference is still there.

Lindor was really impressive when we played Cleveland a few weeks ago; yeah, those two are probably comparable. Correa has a year on him and, at the moment, more power.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/carlos-correas-rookie-season-hints-at-greatness/

I watched a bunch of Houston games in the late season, starting pretty much when the Giants were toasted and yeah, Correa has a tremendous swing. Him + Springer his going to do a lot of damage in the coming year.

Once again, I forgot all about Weighted Mahalanobis Distance--I hate when that happens.

Lindor has been awesome:

Lindor: 390 AB, 50 R, 122 H, 22 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 12 SB, 2 CS, 27 BB, 69 K, .313/.353/.482
Correa: 387 AB, 52 R, 108 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB, 4 CS, 40 BB, 78 K, .279/.345/.512

And... small sample size, but:

Corey Seager: 113 AB, .337/.425/.561

Great year for rookie SS's

Forgot I started this thread. Having a good year--4.9 WAR at 21 and presumably headed for 6.0+ must be Top 10 ever for that age--but hasn't taken the big step forward I was hoping for, which would have unrealistically been a Trout/A-Rod type season: 35 homers, .300/.550+. Maybe next year.

It won't be Top 10.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mike-trout-and-the-greatest-age-21-season-of-all-time/

has to be top ten at SS

After checking, it is. Extraordinary is that in the top 20 all time of age 21 seasons at SS, there is last season's of Lindor at 4th, this season's Addison Russe at 11 and this season's Correa at 7th.

Also, Lindor only played 99 games that season, which is all sorts of nuts.

per fangraphs WAR that is.

Had a slow start this year, but really coming on--big day today, huge May, now at .311/.386/.514, 12 doubles, 8 HR. He'll turn 23 towards the end of September. He's not Trout or A-Rod out of the gate, but I'll basically hold to what I wrote in the first post; after Trout and Harper, he's the next guy I'd take in an open draft. (Ahead of Kershaw/Sale, maybe...I don't know.)

I'd take Kershaw before Harper.

Interesting. Kershaw will end this year just shy of 2,000 innings--who knows if he ends up being Randy Johnson or Roy Halladay in terms of longevity. Harper's been kind of unpredictable thus far.

kershaw's five years older and a pitcher, easy decision imo

Ah yes, I was thinking more who are you taking at draft age.

sort of feel like people forget about bryant in these discussions

This goes back to Monday's home run:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2712422-carlos-correa-becomes-4th-fastest-shortstop-to-50-career-home-runs

Loved Garciaparra; hopefully Correa won't break down physically.

or mentally. that wouldn't be nice either.

I want to counter with a player who was both long-term great and crazy (not flaky, crazy), and I can't think of anyone.

hoping correa follows the a-rod path so we get some good photoshoots out of it

Hurt his thumb again tonight.

http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-exits-game-with-injury-11295307.php

correa has been very, very good. lindor has been even better. correa has always been a bit ahead of lindor, offensively, but lindor provides so much surplus defensive value that he's been worth more WAR, overall. and this year, lindor's offense has been better as well, even though correa is still raking.

Definite edge to Lindor at the moment.

He's kind of lousy this year.

With the usual caveats about opportunities:

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHIamhvWsAESZt3.jpg:large

Follow-up to some Astros-cheating talk on the post-season thread:

https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-fans-not-on-board-with-la-pursuing-shortstop-carlos-correa/2022/10/21/

Just a fan survey, so meaningless, but I could see this kind of thing following some of 2017/18 Astros for years. Springer, for some reason, seems to have dodged this.

I might put a pre-season bet down on him for MVP. The odds won't be great--I could even seeing him being a slight favourite--but I think he'll have a great season. Counter-intuitive, I know--guys are supposed to play better going into free-agency, not after they land the big contract--but there are exceptions (Maddux and Bonds come to mind), and it feels like he still hasn't had that one iconic season commensurate with how good he is. He was on his way in 2017 before he got hurt.

^^Carnac the Magnificent...He's really had a miserable season, hasn't he? Not counting abbreviated seasons, career lows in virtually anything that matters.

Aye, there's a reason all those teams saw his film/physical results and hard-passed.

“I don’t understand the Mets," Boras said. “I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion.

The #MNTwins announce that Carlos Correa exited the game due to an aggravation of the plantar fasciitis.

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) September 18, 2023