Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

unless you are giving enormous weight to Ks, Kershaw is probably not the best pitcher on his team this year.

Kershaw has the lead in Fangraphs WAR

& counterpoint, greinke does on baseball-ref

WARP computed using DRA, Greinke by 6.70-6.49

(BP)

'building a case' doesn't mean 'automatic winner', but yeah, I do give importance to xFIP.

what is DRA?

I like James's rankings, which take a longer view than four or five months (the logic that every year puts a couple of guys into the All-Star Game on the basis of a fast start and little else).

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

The gap between Kershaw (#1) and Greinke (#2) there is as large as the gap between Greinke and Cueto at #9. I think the Top 6 are exactly right. (Bumgarner gets credit for what he did in the postseason; ignore that, and he probably drops out.)

xp deserved run average, here's the BP explanation http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO9jMi2UsAEMjmi.png:large

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-20150915-story.html

Definitely a Cy argument for Kershaw--a strong one--but unless he has a couple of bad starts, Greinke will win. Which is fine.

300 K

@based_ball

Clayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final

2013: .521
2014: .521
2015: .521

Totally missed his first start. Not too shabby, says Adam Sandler.

95 Game Score today--and knocked in the only run.

Missed that last start of his...Has a 19.25 K/BB ratio (77/4); the record's 11-something. Basically takes one lousy start to cut that in half, though.

Basically he is having last season without the (relatively) first two months.

Newest member to the 50 fWAR club.

Seaver was as 51.7 at the end of his age-28 season, Pedro 52.0, Clemens 54.2. So he should stay ahead of those guys for another season, although keeping up with Clemens at the other end will be near-impossible.

(I was going by Baseball Reference.)

Pretty sure Fangraphs/ xFIP rates him more. Here's to another 50 WAR.

Probably a dumb question but is it possible to figure out which game he'll likely be pitching in the Cubs/Dodgers series at the end of the month or is too far away to predict reliably?

you could guess just by following the 5-man rotation and seeing when his turn would be up again. but it could be altered by rainouts, injuries, and weird baseball(tm) occurrences

A month-plus out, we left it to chance and it almost worked out--missed him by a day.

I like looking up mismatched odds. You have to bet $375 on Kershaw today to win $100. That's about as long as baseball odds ever get--I guess Kershaw vs. the Braves would be even longer.

he's sposed to pitch vs Bartolo (again) in NY next Sunday night, which means there should be some decent tix available due to the time switch

(ok, not as many as there wd be on a non-holiday weekend)

not as many as there were when i bought in anticipation 3 weeks ago

wow kudos

maddux alert through 8

https://twitter.com/SamMillerBP/status/734966240888819712

Obviously a little giddy and premature, but I love this:

•In five May starts, he has had more shutouts (three) than walks (two).

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/180219652/clayton-kershaw-goat-may-2016-dodgers?partnerId=ed-10369488-658620023

his k/bb ratio rn is 100/5 o_o

10 ks and no walks in 7.2 IP and who gets the win? adam liberatore, who blew a save in seven pitches.

this has been your daily outrage over something no one cares about anymore

https://twitter.com/BillPetti/status/737280851524911105

I was messing around last night with a six-year peak (consecutive seasons) comparison between some recent pitchers--I didn't write anything down, but I think it was Pedro first, Kershaw or Maddux second, Johnson and Seaver and Clemens behind them.

Years and years of research here:

http://i1059.photobucket.com/albums/t427/sayhey1/pitchers_zpso9ar9u74.jpg

In honor of Adam Liberatore, I included wins and losses.

Seaver was hurt in '74--I should have gone '68-72 for him:

100-53, 2.38, 147+, 1.030, 3.52.

With that in mind, I'd rank them 1) Pedro, 2) Kershaw/Maddux, 4) Johnson, 5) Clemens/Seaver.

Aargh--let's try Seaver again, '68-73:

119-63, 2.32, 151+, 1.021, 3.58.

Same ranking.

At home, against Atlanta, opposing pitcher 1-6 with an ERA near 6.00. Dodgers won last night, the Braves have lost two in a row. Betting $100 on Atlanta wins $400+. If I could, I would make that bet--the set-up is just too perfect.

Just for fun--my own--Kershaw's line minus his one bad start against Miami:

Games started - 12
W/L - 9-0
Team W/L - 12-0
QS - 12
Average game score - 77
IP - 93.2
R - 13
ER - 12
H - 53
BB - 5
K - 112
ERA - 1.15
WHIP - 0.622
K/BB - 22.40

@McCulloughTimes
Clayton Kershaw is being flown back to Los Angeles to see team doctors.

Stay healthy, please.

ffs please

at least it's a sore back, to counterpoint the trendy arm apocalypses.

got an epidural(?!), going on the DL

:( hope the birth goes well stay strong little kersh jr

‏@McCulloughTimes
Dave Roberts initially said the team hoped Kershaw would be back after the break, but then he backed off that. May be a little longer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3TuOQkN7e0

@McCulloughTimes
Clayton Kershaw "didn't feel great" on Sunday, Dave Roberts said. He's shut down until his back pain goes away. His return? "Uncertain."

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/17108426/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-shut-due-continuing-back-pain

SMH

Out until at least Aug. 27.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/dodgers-ace-clayton-kershaw-moved-to-60-day-dl-080316

I'd shut him down for the year, but they're close enough in the standings to complicate that.