Ladies and gentleman, I give you your MVP runnerup: Adrian Beltre

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Even if most MVP winners are from one of the 8 playoff teams, odds of the player's team going on to get the trophy is roughly 1 in 8, given that most postseason series are a coin flip (or "fucking luck" as Mr Beane put it).

Another way to look at it is that teams who rely on one player for most their offense rarely win it all.

bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 31 August 2004 16:56 (nineteen years ago) link

Another way to look at it is that teams rarely win it all.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 31 August 2004 18:25 (nineteen years ago) link

well... uh... BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL!!

bnw (bnw), Wednesday, 1 September 2004 01:52 (nineteen years ago) link

edmonds headed into the stratosphere tonight and beltre is 0-5 as i'm writing this...the race for number 2 ain't over yet.

edmonds .311/.426/.672, neutral park
beltre .338/.386/.652, pitcher's park

gotta figure defense is a wash/edge to edmonds. but jimmy doesn't have great clutch/risp numbers.

the trouble of course is that rolen and pujols still loom VERY large...but i'm moving back to undecided.

John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 1 September 2004 04:18 (nineteen years ago) link

I think what we can be assured of at the very least is that the top five is probably all sewn up.

Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 1 September 2004 04:33 (nineteen years ago) link

If SD gets a playoff berth, Loretta deserves to be in the top 5, and likely won't be.

Edmonds would likely be my #2 at the moment.


VORP, Sept 1

Bonds 118.9
Pujols 82.2
Edmonds 78.5

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 1 September 2004 14:20 (nineteen years ago) link

From a giants blog:

"* In terms of EqA, the gap between Bonds and Beltre is bigger than the gap between Beltre and Cody Ransom. Hell, the gap between Bonds and Beltre about as big as the gap between Beltre and Neifarious."

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 15:28 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm very interested to see how this MVP voting turns out. I'm thinking that Pujols and Edmonds have turned it on so much that they've passed Rolen, and they might split the St. Louis vote. I'm not sure Beltre will be #2 now. I'm almost positive Bonds wins it still.

Gear! (Gear!), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 17:20 (nineteen years ago) link

I think this year Bonds will be the runner up to Bonds.

Leeeter van den Hoogenband (Leee), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 17:56 (nineteen years ago) link

good thing for bonds that terry pendleton isn't elligible

mookieproof (mookieproof), Tuesday, 7 September 2004 18:24 (nineteen years ago) link

Can we talk about AL MVP? I'm looking at stats, and I can't see anyone running away with it. Candidates likely in contention: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield, Ichiro Suzuki, Miguel Tejada, Melvin Mora, and Ivan Rodriguez.

jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 15 September 2004 17:46 (nineteen years ago) link

Sheff, Manny, and Ortiz are winning the publicity battle. Unfortunately for the Red Sox players, there's bound to be vote-splitting between them so I doubt either will win (Schilling will probably get MVP votes also, splitting the vote even further).

If the Yanks win the division despite all those pitching injuries, I think Sheff will win (although Rivera probably deserved equal credit. In a way, they're the Bonds-Schmidt combo of the AL, or at least, that is how they will be perceived).

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 15 September 2004 18:33 (nineteen years ago) link

The other guys you named are all having excellent seasons (we can probably add stathead-favourite Carlos Guillen to the list too) but only Ichiro is receiving what I'd call "MVP-calibre coverage". Too bad he's just Lloyd Waner 2004.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 15 September 2004 18:34 (nineteen years ago) link

(OK, that was cruel and not precisely true, sorry. The part about Lloyd Waner, that is. I stand by the rest)

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 15 September 2004 18:35 (nineteen years ago) link

I really don't see how Manny couldn't/shouldn't win it, despite the arguments for Sheff.

Gear! (Gear!), Wednesday, 15 September 2004 19:28 (nineteen years ago) link

Comparing stats, Manny and Ortiz are fairly close, although Manny does clearly have an edge. And Ortiz's "leader" rep from last year has carried over into this season (wasn't he ~ fifth in MVP voting?) -- and he's putting up better numbers this year than last. He will suck votes away from Manny.

Last year Manny was also better when he played (he was injured for several weeks last season). But he's got this Albert Belle-esque rep as a "difficult" personality and a selfish player, which the voters hate. Whereas Ortiz has the opposite rep. I think Manny would need vastly superior numbers than any of his competitors to make up that difference in the voters' eyes, and that's just not true this season.

Barry Bruner (Barry Bruner), Thursday, 16 September 2004 02:56 (nineteen years ago) link

two weeks pass...
My NL runnersup to BB (don't moan about Rolen, 5 through 10 are a crapshoot):

Albert Pujols 2
Adrian Beltre 3
Jim Edmonds 4
Todd Helton 5
Lance Berkman 6
Bobby Abreu 7
Scott Rolen 8
Mark Loretta 9
J.D. Drew 10

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 October 2004 15:25 (nineteen years ago) link

Is that list based solely on VORP, or did you weight other things in your ranking, Morb?

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 5 October 2004 19:23 (nineteen years ago) link

Of course I weighed other things ... position, for one. I'm no automaton, whether JDahlem can be persuaded or not!

Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 5 October 2004 19:42 (nineteen years ago) link

After I posted my question, I realized how dopey it was. My bad, Dr. M.

David R. (popshots75`), Tuesday, 5 October 2004 19:57 (nineteen years ago) link

Helton?

Gear! (Gear!), Tuesday, 5 October 2004 22:42 (nineteen years ago) link

DUH doc, position is already weighted in VORP WHAT ARE YOU THINKING

(therefore: NOT a dopey question dave r!)

((helton?))

[and i don't care what you say, rolen should totally have been #4 dude, you've been rash]

John (jdahlem), Wednesday, 6 October 2004 01:34 (nineteen years ago) link

eight months pass...
haha, whoops

Gear! (can Jung shill it, Mu?) (Gear!), Saturday, 11 June 2005 21:07 (eighteen years ago) link

Did you see that article in the LA Times the other day about Beltre? It was kinda sad..

Actor Sizemore fails drug test with fake penis (jingleberries), Monday, 13 June 2005 04:19 (eighteen years ago) link

Seattle's Sluggers:

Beltre ($11.4M)
.244/.279/.361

Boone ($9M)
.234/.299/.378

Sexson ($6M)
.244/.353/.507

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 13 June 2005 15:33 (eighteen years ago) link

Kit Kaat Sluggers:

Beltre

Sexson

laurence kansas (lawrence kansas), Thursday, 16 June 2005 12:22 (eighteen years ago) link

:-(

gygax! (gygax!), Thursday, 16 June 2005 15:48 (eighteen years ago) link

Sexson last night: 0 fer six. 4 K's.

laurence kansas (lawrence kansas), Friday, 17 June 2005 11:56 (eighteen years ago) link

eight years pass...

I was looking at Beltre's comps on Baseball Reference. As you probably know, there are always three lists: one based on who you'd match up with if your career were to end today, one that compares your numbers to other careers up to your current age (the most useful), and a third list that tracks season by season. Beltre's seasonal comps:

Age 20 -- Manny Machado (952)
Age 21 -- Ron Santo (954)
Age 22 -- Ron Santo (947)
Age 23 -- Ron Santo (976)
Age 24 -- Ron Santo (945)
Age 25 -- Ron Santo (965)
Age 26 -- Ron Santo (946)
Age 27 -- Ron Santo (930)
Age 28 -- Ron Santo (933)
Age 29 -- Ron Santo (918)
Age 30 -- Ruben Sierra (916)
Age 31 -- Ron Santo (909)
Age 32 -- Ron Santo (918)
Age 33 -- Ron Santo (921)
Age 34 -- Ron Santo (884)

That's pretty remarkable. No surprise that Beltre and Santo match up well over their careers, but I doubt that there have ever been two players in the entire history of baseball more in lockstep on a seasonal basis.

clemenza, Saturday, 14 June 2014 13:59 (nine years ago) link

Example: even when you look at Ruth, where you're obviously drawing from an extremely limited group of similar players, you get a list that's Williams from age 26-33, a few years of Foxx after that, a few years of Bonds at the end, and Chuck Klein and Manny Ramirez and Will Clark (!--age 23) mixed in.

clemenza, Saturday, 14 June 2014 14:03 (nine years ago) link

that's pretty fucking cool clemenza.

TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 14 June 2014 18:28 (nine years ago) link

three weeks pass...

en fuego

christmas candy bar (al leong), Sunday, 6 July 2014 00:13 (nine years ago) link

35, 2519 hits, 387 HR. 3000 hits should be easy--the rest of this year, two more seasons and a bit. 500 HR will be tougher, but he has a pretty good chance to be the fifth 3000/500 guy (assuming A-Rod doesn't find a way to get those last 61 hits). Pujols and Cabrera would be next in line, although I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those guys break down physically first.

clemenza, Sunday, 6 July 2014 13:17 (nine years ago) link

one month passes...

Nobody cares, I realize, but I'd love to see Beltre win the batting title. If his HOF chances are as close as most people think (again, I see him close to a cinch at this point), a batting title will definitely help. He's about five points behind right now.

clemenza, Thursday, 28 August 2014 16:08 (nine years ago) link

seven months pass...

Garrett Richards came into the Angels’ clubhouse proudly holding a piece of paper Saturday afternoon. Texas third baseman Adrian Beltre had sent him an invoice for $300 after Richards broke three of his bats Friday night.

It was a real invoice, like Beltre went to an office-supply store and bought a pack of them or something. “Cash only, no checks,” he wrote above his signature.

http://www.ocregister.com/angels/richards-659454-angels-came.html

Andy K, Saturday, 25 April 2015 23:47 (eight years ago) link

five months pass...

beltre's got a BBR WAR right now of 5.4, thanks for a productive second half. pretty amazing player.

nomar, Saturday, 3 October 2015 15:38 (eight years ago) link

*thanks to

nomar, Saturday, 3 October 2015 15:39 (eight years ago) link

Another great game today. I've been tracking him the last while too. Since July 31: .326/.379/.539, 10 HR, 52 RBI.

clemenza, Saturday, 3 October 2015 20:47 (eight years ago) link

six months pass...

<3 <3

lute bro (brimstead), Wednesday, 20 April 2016 17:43 (eight years ago) link

the Rangers have bigger problems, eg Ian Desmond is their reg LF

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 20 April 2016 19:10 (eight years ago) link

one month passes...

Just moved past Chipper Jones and into the Top 50 on Baseball Reference's WAR list (85.3); real longshot to hit 100, but at 37 and signed through 2018, who knows.

clemenza, Monday, 23 May 2016 13:58 (seven years ago) link

I know it was ultimately that the McCourts were a mess, but letting Beltre walk was pretty dumb by the Dodgers.

earlnash, Monday, 23 May 2016 17:32 (seven years ago) link

two months pass...

https://twitter.com/EdwardEgrosFox4/status/763524922098409472

nomar, Thursday, 11 August 2016 18:39 (seven years ago) link

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpltKYQWAAA2g9p.jpg:small

mookieproof, Thursday, 11 August 2016 18:44 (seven years ago) link

it seems like just yesterday this guy was a one-season wonder rather than a hopeful HoFer. what a strange career

ciderpress, Thursday, 11 August 2016 19:13 (seven years ago) link


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