2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

useful link

declaration times
http://democraticdashboard.com/explorer/declaration-times/

solid 5th for the Lib Dems there

It will be interesting to get a a sense of the demographics. I have a suspicion that they might have done much better than normal with 18-35s who would have been put off by the harder social conservatism of previous incarnations.

nothing is going to make me feel any better right now is it

UKIP and SNP are really going to have been fucking with the exit poll modelling he hopes, clutching at straw.

From the 2nd result: swing from Tories to UKIP. Lab slightly up.

Open invitation to the North East of England to join Scotland when Scotland becomes independent, i.e. sometime in the next 5 years.

Is there a chance that people lie about UKIP voting, even in exit polls?

That's my straw and I'm clutching it

When is the first marginal coming in?

only Jeremy Vine in a cowboy hat can lift our spirits now

Exit polls are anonymous :(

Cleggy Cleggy Cleggy out out out. Cleggy out. Cleggy out.

just imagine being such a morally empty shitbag that you're ashamed to admit who you voted for

FiveThirtyEight pointing out that the exit poll Lab-Con margin was off by an average of 39 seats from 1974 to 1997

Tories to be propped up by red faced (and handed) Ulstermen.

yeah some nice straws to clutch at in this

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-the-uk-exit-poll-will-tell-us/

John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council and a FiveThirtyEight contributor, helped design the exit poll. He has said to “prepare for disappointment.” In other words, we might be heading back to the 1974 to 1997 era of major exit poll errors.

this gives a list of marginals to watch for
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377

however the website is buckling under heavy demand

Solid 5th place for the Lib Dems there

:D

that TUSC guy sticking it to the electoral process in a shocking pink t-shirt = why I didn't vote TUSC

Lab +2%
UKIP +16%
Con -3%
Green +3%
LD -14%

So from LD to UKIP.

they've lost all their deposits so far. they could be financially wiped out here.

Labour are firming up their line on the exit poll. A party source says:

We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us.

sure, it looks flat on the page, but what you have to consider is the deliv

ignore 538

the group they've partnered with for this are fine, but ilx posters know more about UK polling than nate silver

watching this in new york, guess i'm going to be up when it finishes for the first time ;_;

they've lost all their deposits so far. they could be financially wiped out here.

Bless you for trying to cheer us up.

I'd take Ed Balls as PM over 5 more years of this.

i am so staying up for Balls Out

Exit polls are anonymous :(

i am imagining them imagining themselves stepping into consciousness/publicity/the glare of an all-seeing-eye once they leave sanctity of the primary school gym and fill in the exit poll ballot

I'm not optimistic

thin fucking straw to grab

i keep wanting to switch this off given i can't change it

it won't be 5 more years of this, the gloves will be off. the people have spoken. let them enjoy it.

bless that DUP ghoul trying to make Cameron work for it

Sammy Wilson, the Red Face of Ulster

I feel a bit sorry for some of the Lib Dem old-stagers in the north. I had a crushingly melancholy lunch with one from Jesmond last year.

MAKE IT STOP

if the tories do get in, it'll be a p weak government, right?

Tottering from one crisis to another

with only massive funneling of public money into tax havens to keep them going

with the DUP one would think its a few years. maybe not a full term, but maybe enough to 'finish the job'.

feel a bit demob happy, if the BBC poll's right i give my job 12 months

Working with the Lib Dems is hardly preparation for trying to work with the DUP, those guys will have their nuts in a vice and have no compunction about applying pressure.

Off the Lib Dem leash, with a claim to the backing of the public for their programme and requiring everyone including the DUP to work together to vote them down - they could be much bolder this time.

I do look forward to them having to wheel half dead MPs on hospital beds through for key votes like the Major years though.

what is the situation with sinn fein and still not attending? i kind of assumed they would be attending by now?

half-dead Tory MPs, i love how everybody's trying to cheer us up tonight, it's like the Blitz

They will never attend. They do not see it as a legitimate seat of power. Xp

XP slogan isn't "might surrender eventually"

So with 310 they'll govern, lose the odd vote (as Peter Kellner is saying) but you know 'finish the job'.

Yea, that's the faint bright spot about the exit poll: as Labour are trying to say, the majority has vanished. It'd be wheeling in beds from hospitals again territory. Labour, plus the rump of the Libs and the SNP, would be able to play a pretty strong opposition.

Kellner's a Tory wank. The odd votes they'll lose will be the doozies.

but a much tighter majority?

xposts, yeah that's what i was wondering.