2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

electoral calculus who had the best exit poll in 2010:

con = 280

lab = 274

lib dem = 21

snp = 52

Exit polls are usually pretty accurate, so now might be a good time to start despairing.

that Lib Dem guy did a great face

solid 5th place for the Lib Dems there

John Curtice seems like a very nice man so it is with sadness that I find myself hoping that his career comes to an ignominious end after tonight.

the fact that the BBC's front of house election team are all Tories leaves us with the faint hope that whoever did the exit poll got carried away in a surge of blue patriotism

unrepresentative sample, I pray to you

haaa, tom

lost deposit, start as you mean to go on lib dems

Kirsty trying to cheer me up there by saying Danny Alexander and Douglas Alexander are likely to lose their seats.

BBC suggesting Balls out.

that so-called yougov poll wasn't true then?

this is maybe the first time i've ever seen alistair campbell appear and felt slightly comforted

YouGov ‏@YouGov 32m32 minutes ago

YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday.

???

OK GOD I WILL TRADE ANOTHER 5 YEARS OF THE TORIES FOR ED BALLS LOSING HIS SEAT

and here I was going to live on coffee for the next 18 hours..

NV = evil personified, but, with a valid reasoning.

pray that you're getting rid of a total cock, turns out you've lost your balls instead

I'm not british, and I pretty much expected the worst. Elections in UK are always the worst. I'm still going to get a beer right now. Ugh.

yeah so yougov were just sticking with their previous poll. but this means that every single polling company has got this election drastically wrong.

ok so can anyone tell me what is the first result that could give an indication as to whether the exit poll is right?

nope, you need a marginal seat

ok Ashdown's just offered to eat a hat, this evening's hotting up

That happened a while ago, NV

for the first result:

EXIT POLL numbers:
Lab 59%
Con: 20%
UKIP: 16%
Green: 3%
Lib Dem: 2%

ACTUAL numbers:

Lab 55%
Con: 18%
UKIP: 22%
Green: 3%
Lib Dem: 2%

so looks accurate and labour might be doing even worse

xp must have missed it first time while i was locking up the kitchen knives

I'm fucking shellshocked here. A Tory government propped up by the DUP is just about the worst outcome that was considered even remotely plausible before the exit poll.

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/mass-tactical-vote-uk-history/3663

yeah so yougov were just sticking with their previous poll. but this means that every single polling company has got this election drastically wrong.

or possibly that the British public are liars

or that the Telegraph's sweat-drenched 1am e-mails are incredibly effective

one weird - or new - thing is that there still seems to have been high turnout in marginals - this doesn't historically favour the Tories

idk what is happening a woman is walking on a giant multicoloured uk.

useful link

declaration times
http://democraticdashboard.com/explorer/declaration-times/

solid 5th for the Lib Dems there

It will be interesting to get a a sense of the demographics. I have a suspicion that they might have done much better than normal with 18-35s who would have been put off by the harder social conservatism of previous incarnations.

nothing is going to make me feel any better right now is it

UKIP and SNP are really going to have been fucking with the exit poll modelling he hopes, clutching at straw.

From the 2nd result: swing from Tories to UKIP. Lab slightly up.

Open invitation to the North East of England to join Scotland when Scotland becomes independent, i.e. sometime in the next 5 years.

Is there a chance that people lie about UKIP voting, even in exit polls?

That's my straw and I'm clutching it

When is the first marginal coming in?

only Jeremy Vine in a cowboy hat can lift our spirits now

Exit polls are anonymous :(

Cleggy Cleggy Cleggy out out out. Cleggy out. Cleggy out.

just imagine being such a morally empty shitbag that you're ashamed to admit who you voted for

FiveThirtyEight pointing out that the exit poll Lab-Con margin was off by an average of 39 seats from 1974 to 1997

Tories to be propped up by red faced (and handed) Ulstermen.

yeah some nice straws to clutch at in this

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-the-uk-exit-poll-will-tell-us/

John Curtice, president of the British Polling Council and a FiveThirtyEight contributor, helped design the exit poll. He has said to “prepare for disappointment.” In other words, we might be heading back to the 1974 to 1997 era of major exit poll errors.

this gives a list of marginals to watch for
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377

however the website is buckling under heavy demand

Solid 5th place for the Lib Dems there

:D