2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

I did 30 minutes ago. Fuck, Andrew Marr, Tory wankers out in force tonight.

cd've sworn Marr was a Blairite oh wait

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbwb1AWMAAlgHw.jpg

Oh Jeremy, you can do wit but you can't do jokes...

YouGov Exit poll

labour / social democrat tally - anti-tory

Labour 263
SNP 48
Plaid 3
Green 1

315

more
SDLP 3? 2?
Respect 1?

with the lib dems as kingmakers? which way though ?
with the tories make 315
with the labour / social democrat / left 349/350 ish

liberal democrats don't want to join dup / ukip in a tory coalition - numbers fall short

however they also said no to joining labour with snp in any deal?

therefore no government outcome ? on yougov exit poll

Could we see Scottish Lab breaking away following this - five years to shift left and recapture Nat votes then formal coalition with nu Lab?

Wasn't an exit poll, sadly

Yep. Just got back in touch with 6k people they had previously polled to see if they changed their mind.

the yougov exit poll has a sample size of 6000 compared to the bbc's 22,000.

;_;

and it's not even an exit poll

Paul Nuttall's only 38?

i'm worried Yorkshire First mayn't win their target seats now

electoral calculus who had the best exit poll in 2010:

con = 280

lab = 274

lib dem = 21

snp = 52

Exit polls are usually pretty accurate, so now might be a good time to start despairing.

that Lib Dem guy did a great face

solid 5th place for the Lib Dems there

John Curtice seems like a very nice man so it is with sadness that I find myself hoping that his career comes to an ignominious end after tonight.

the fact that the BBC's front of house election team are all Tories leaves us with the faint hope that whoever did the exit poll got carried away in a surge of blue patriotism

unrepresentative sample, I pray to you

haaa, tom

lost deposit, start as you mean to go on lib dems

Kirsty trying to cheer me up there by saying Danny Alexander and Douglas Alexander are likely to lose their seats.

BBC suggesting Balls out.

that so-called yougov poll wasn't true then?

this is maybe the first time i've ever seen alistair campbell appear and felt slightly comforted

YouGov ‏@YouGov 32m32 minutes ago

YouGov has not done an exit poll. A re-contact survey today simply gave us no reason to change our final numbers from yesterday.

???

OK GOD I WILL TRADE ANOTHER 5 YEARS OF THE TORIES FOR ED BALLS LOSING HIS SEAT

and here I was going to live on coffee for the next 18 hours..

NV = evil personified, but, with a valid reasoning.

pray that you're getting rid of a total cock, turns out you've lost your balls instead

I'm not british, and I pretty much expected the worst. Elections in UK are always the worst. I'm still going to get a beer right now. Ugh.

yeah so yougov were just sticking with their previous poll. but this means that every single polling company has got this election drastically wrong.

ok so can anyone tell me what is the first result that could give an indication as to whether the exit poll is right?

nope, you need a marginal seat

ok Ashdown's just offered to eat a hat, this evening's hotting up

That happened a while ago, NV

for the first result:

EXIT POLL numbers:
Lab 59%
Con: 20%
UKIP: 16%
Green: 3%
Lib Dem: 2%

ACTUAL numbers:

Lab 55%
Con: 18%
UKIP: 22%
Green: 3%
Lib Dem: 2%

so looks accurate and labour might be doing even worse

xp must have missed it first time while i was locking up the kitchen knives

I'm fucking shellshocked here. A Tory government propped up by the DUP is just about the worst outcome that was considered even remotely plausible before the exit poll.

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/mass-tactical-vote-uk-history/3663

yeah so yougov were just sticking with their previous poll. but this means that every single polling company has got this election drastically wrong.

or possibly that the British public are liars

or that the Telegraph's sweat-drenched 1am e-mails are incredibly effective

one weird - or new - thing is that there still seems to have been high turnout in marginals - this doesn't historically favour the Tories

idk what is happening a woman is walking on a giant multicoloured uk.

useful link

declaration times
http://democraticdashboard.com/explorer/declaration-times/

solid 5th for the Lib Dems there

It will be interesting to get a a sense of the demographics. I have a suspicion that they might have done much better than normal with 18-35s who would have been put off by the harder social conservatism of previous incarnations.

nothing is going to make me feel any better right now is it

UKIP and SNP are really going to have been fucking with the exit poll modelling he hopes, clutching at straw.

From the 2nd result: swing from Tories to UKIP. Lab slightly up.

Open invitation to the North East of England to join Scotland when Scotland becomes independent, i.e. sometime in the next 5 years.