2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

can someone explain to me under what scenarios the Tories don't come out as the ruling party

Yougov sample size is less than a third of BBC and idk about its methodology.

xp

broadly speaking - if between them and their possible coalition partners they don't have somewhere in the region of 320 seats

They could probably govern on their own with 316, tbh.

Definitely.

yeah sure

their possible coalition partners is not many, whatever happens

starting to wonder whether smashed Lib Dems and Tory gov isn't better than unsmashed LDs and more fragile Tory gov, if those are the two most likely outcomes

They could probably govern on their own with 316

ok well since they seem well short of 316 I guess I'm asking who their coalition partners would be. I know the UKIP are insane racist rightwingers and the Greens are obviously on Labour's side but I'm not familiar with the allegiances of the Lib Dems and SNP

xp

They've been in coalition with the Lib Dems for the last 5 years.

A lot depends on Clegg. If he loses his seat, the reformed LDs will go to Labour, I think. YouGov poll does give coalition a slim majority, mind

the BBC exit poll gives the Tories 316. UKIP will maybe get 2 seats and wouldn't go into formal coalition with them. The Northern Irish Unionist parties wd be likely to broadly support them on most issues

Nate Silvet dubious about that exit poll.

Silver

i don't believe whoever's left in charge of the Lib Dems will be able to deliver all their surviving MPs to the Tories

The BBC one I mean

bbc exit poll from last time round was bang-on, sadly, iirc

Hmm, I think I will not be watching the results roll in tonight, no point.

Might get up early to see that Farage didn't win his seat

if the bbc poll is accurate, what happens next for labour?

(xp) Was hoping for Clegg, Farage and Alex Salmond to fail, it'll probably only be Farage :(

not sure if that poll is right that Labour are way off expectations, bar a bigger thrashing in Scotland than predicted, so either write off Scotland or stop being right wing cunts, i dunno, they've been dead for 20 years

The methodology was a lot easier last time; they've had to pick new stations and new marginal seats to poll this time xp

when are we getting results?

It goes on slowly throughout the night and into tomorrow morning.

never before understood the appeal of drinking alone but that bbc exit poll gave me the immediate desire to get a bottle of wine doon me

lol i nearly ran to Tescos

I did 30 minutes ago. Fuck, Andrew Marr, Tory wankers out in force tonight.

cd've sworn Marr was a Blairite oh wait

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEbwb1AWMAAlgHw.jpg

Oh Jeremy, you can do wit but you can't do jokes...

YouGov Exit poll

labour / social democrat tally - anti-tory

Labour 263
SNP 48
Plaid 3
Green 1

315

more
SDLP 3? 2?
Respect 1?

with the lib dems as kingmakers? which way though ?
with the tories make 315
with the labour / social democrat / left 349/350 ish

liberal democrats don't want to join dup / ukip in a tory coalition - numbers fall short

however they also said no to joining labour with snp in any deal?

therefore no government outcome ? on yougov exit poll

Could we see Scottish Lab breaking away following this - five years to shift left and recapture Nat votes then formal coalition with nu Lab?

Wasn't an exit poll, sadly

Yep. Just got back in touch with 6k people they had previously polled to see if they changed their mind.

the yougov exit poll has a sample size of 6000 compared to the bbc's 22,000.

;_;

and it's not even an exit poll

Paul Nuttall's only 38?

i'm worried Yorkshire First mayn't win their target seats now

electoral calculus who had the best exit poll in 2010:

con = 280

lab = 274

lib dem = 21

snp = 52

Exit polls are usually pretty accurate, so now might be a good time to start despairing.

that Lib Dem guy did a great face

solid 5th place for the Lib Dems there

John Curtice seems like a very nice man so it is with sadness that I find myself hoping that his career comes to an ignominious end after tonight.

the fact that the BBC's front of house election team are all Tories leaves us with the faint hope that whoever did the exit poll got carried away in a surge of blue patriotism

unrepresentative sample, I pray to you

haaa, tom

lost deposit, start as you mean to go on lib dems

Kirsty trying to cheer me up there by saying Danny Alexander and Douglas Alexander are likely to lose their seats.

BBC suggesting Balls out.

that so-called yougov poll wasn't true then?