2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.

18 UKIP Councillors (including 2 council group leaders), 17 Candidates, 1 National Secretary, 1 Youth Secretary, 1 UKIP Scotland Chair, 1 Spokesperson, 1 entire local branch, 1 local committee & 3 MEPs have been suspended from the party solely during this Parliament.

impressive!

Plus Europe is not as big a deal in a general election.

Europe no, immigration (and any social problems blamed on it) yes.

The UKIP vote is vastly more sensitive to what the press says than that of virtually any other party, so it does and will make a difference. Some of the Lab-Tory swing vote might have been as well, but that side has mostly been with the Tories (or even the LibDems) for some time now, possibly the entire duration of the parliament. A lot of UKIP voters will be morons and not particularly sensitive to stupid things their candidates say or do.

Europe is half of their manifesto.

I don't know why the morons who vote UKIP wold listen to the press as they form part of the elites UKIP is supposedly fighting against.

Same reason they listen to Farage. Whether you're part of an elite or not is irrelevant, it's presenting yourself as outside of one that counts, and that's what the Sun and the Express in particular specialise in.

ILX's own Stirmonster has made a rather excellent "why I used to vote Labour but no longer " post and said It was ok for me to post it here

I became a Labour supporter at the age of 15, my political awakening coming during the Miner's strike in 1983. I first voted for Labour in the 1987 general election and then again in 1992, 1997 (the big one!), 2001 and with great reservations in 2005, for what will probably prove to have been the very last time. Over that period I also voted for them in several local, European and Scottish elections.

I lived through the entire Thatcher era and can totally understand why an unelectable Labour party had to reinvent itself as New Labour. I convinced myself that Tony Blair's, to my mind traitorous, scrapping of Clause 4 was simply a sad but necessary step to make Labour electable, which of course he did in the 1997 election, a night I celebrated with great gusto. The day after that election that saw Labour returned to power after 18 years, Mr. Blair made a speech in which he talked about the huge mandate the British people had given him and how people were going to be shocked by how radical Labour was going to be. He certainly kept his word even if it wasn't the kind of "radical" most of us were expecting.

In 1997 I genuinely and naively believed we were at the dawn of a New Jerusalem. I clung onto the idea that Labour were making the best of a difficult situation until in 2003, I along with hundreds of thousands of others marched to protest UK involvement in the Iraq war, something Mr. Blair completely ignored as apparently God told him to go ahead and do it.

Since then my regard for the Labour party has spiralled downwards exponentially. The current party does not seem to care for the "labour" of this country and definitely not for anyone who should happen to be on benefits, as Labour's Rachel Reeves recently stated. Her quote - "We are not the party of people on benefits. We don’t want to be seen, and we’re not, the party to represent those who are out of work" seems to me beyond despicable. It appears they only care about their own electability basing all their core policies on focus group led findings, constantly kowtowing to mainstream press opinion and are mainly concerned with what voters in key marginal seats might think.

In hindsight it is easy to see that Labour were prone to spinelessness long before this. One example: In 1969, the great Labour matriarch, Barbara Castle proposed in a white paper called "In Place Of Strife" that Trade Unions should be forced to call a ballot before a strike and that an Industrial Board should be established to enforce settlements in industrial disputes. The Labour leadership, perhaps in fear of the Unions who held such powerful sway over the Labour Party didn't have the stomach for it and it was dropped. Had they embraced it as policy, the war on the Unions that Thatcher fought throughout the 1980s might never have happened and the political climate of this country might have been very different today with the unions remaining a lot less emasculated than they ended up being. As an aside, Thatcher's war with the National Union of Miners had very little to do with her claims that coal mining was "uneconomic" (an incorrect and meaningless term), but was simply an all out act of revenge for the NUM's humiliation of Edward Heath's previous Conservative government.

Anyway, I digress. Of course there are still a small handful of good people in the Labour party trying to do good things and many dedicated activists still drawn to the party who believe in the true Labour ideals and still cling to the hope the party will act on them. I even think Ed Milliband is sincere in his beliefs but they just seem too weak, too neo liberal.

The West of Scotland has been a Labour heartland for decades but the cracks here had begun to show long before the referendum. The referendum did however lead to a level of political debate and awareness Scotland has probably never seen before which opened a lot of people's eyes to what the Labour party had become. That Labour would do the Tory's dirty work and conspire with them in a united front to push for a no vote has irrevocably tainted them in many people's eyes. That the very poorest parts of Scotland voted Yes with the most determination, that these former bastions of Labour support ignored the wishes of the party many had voted for for decades is very telling and helps explain what to many might appear to be an irrational loathing for Scottish Labour. Labour should have been the party of these people. It should have sided with the notion of home rule just as the first ever Labour MP elected to Parliament, Keir Hardie had over 100 years previously. I don't believe that Labour were in favour of preserving the Union for any other reason than their own self interest; the number of Scottish MPs who would have lost their jobs and the impact losing all those Scottish MPs would have on future chances of Labour being in power. Gordon Brown's hollow "vow" was for many a final nail in the coffin and it would appear they are going to lose most of those MPs anyway. Lose, lose!

The UK media has gone batshit mental over Scotland's role in this general election and I know many people south of the border who find it reprehensible that the Scots not voting Labour might lead to another Tory government, something the bulk of the Scottish population have voted against since the 1980s. Yes we fear a Tory govt, particularly as they are prone to treat Scotland with particular contempt for having deserted them eons ago and will no doubt be out to punish Scotland further this time round, but it's no longer enough to blindly vote for the second worst option that is a Labour party we no longer believe in. To quote a friend of mine "We're not idiots. We're doing what we think is best, out of hope rather than fear, for the first time in a long time".

I particularly hope to see the end of Labour's stranglehold on Glasgow as they truly don't deserve the votes of the people here who had supported them through thick and thin and been taken for granted for so long. Then there is the Labour controlled Glasgow city council who have ruled this city almost as long as the Communist Party ruled the Soviet Union. Apart from a brief period in the late 60s / early 70s when the now defunct Progressive Party was in control and an odd period in the late 70s when the Conservatives led the council, Glasgow City Council has been controlled by Labour for 63 years going way back to 1952. The result of such an entrenched Labour control over the city is a completely out of touch, corrupt, incompetent, self serving council with constant allegations of cronyism. One only has to walk around Glasgow to witness an endless series of ill thought out planning disasters the council can claim credit for but beyond this, they are hopelessly out of touch with the needs of Glasgow and its place as a modern 21st century city. And why should they care? They knew they were safely in power, able to do whatever they liked, to pass on positions of power from generation to generation and that every few years so few people would turn out to vote in council elections that they would safely be returned to power, able to abuse their position. I feel confident the next local elections here will see a seismic change in the council make up too.

I am not aligned to any party anymore but will vote to keep Labour out in my constituency. I will vote SNP for the first time in my life. As recently as a year ago I would have thought it unimaginable that I would ever even consider voting for them but a year is a long time in politics and has been akin to an epoch in Scotland. I was a late but passionate convert to independence, will never be a nationalist but see no contradiction with being anti nationalism yet wanting independence. I certainly don't think the SNP have all the answers. I am deeply sceptical of all political parties but the SNP do appear to be the most progressive option likely to win seats, at least talk the anti-austerity talk and are anti-Trident and pro-electoral reform which along with the unacceptable need for foodbanks in our communities are some of my biggest personal concerns.

I believe the people of the UK deserve better than the current kaput system has to offer. The system is deeply undemocratic. We need to have electoral reform; proportional representation, an elected second chamber, regional assemblies, MPs not being allowed any outside financial interests (if they can't live on an MP's salary they shouldn't become MPs) and a total reappraisal of lobbying and particularly lobbying by big businesses. That's just for starters!

Ultimately, in this information age I don't think any political party can reflect the myriad viewpoints of people in this country in large enough numbers to be said to democratically represent the people. I think we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the political party system which will no doubt be prolonged ad infinitum by the sheer fear of the main political parties to accept this and to ever consider relinquishing their stranglehold on power in this country.

In the meantime, whatever the outcome of this election hopefully some positives will arise. Scottish Labour will almost certainly be forced to reinvent themselves, and perhaps face up to where they went so ghastly wrong which can only be positive for the future of any Labour movement nationwide. The times they are a changin - scary, uncertain and invigorating, but always there is hope.

http://www.optimo.co.uk/blog/index.php

I highlighted my fave part.

Not sure how big a factor UKIP will be. Lots of places in their Kent / Essex / East Anglia heartland they're polling relatively strongly (15%+) have massive Tory leads so there's no real prospect of vote splitting. There are a few (like Waveney) where they might cost the Conservatives seats but i suspect there'll be more cases of them pushing Labour into 3rd than contributing to the Tories coming second.

Plus Europe is not as big a deal in a general election.

Europe no, immigration (and any social problems blamed on it) yes.

I don't think UKIP's positioning itself as a "respectable" BNP has helped much for the same reason the BNP have not had much parliamentary electoral success.

On the Today programme this morning Gus O’Donnell (or Lord O’Donnell, as he is now), the former cabinet secretary, made it clear that there is nothing illegitimate about the second largest party in the Commons forming a government provided it can command the confidence of the Commons. Tories are challenging this idea, and it is due to become a central issue of debate after the election.

O’Donnell said that David Cameron himself had signed off on the rules that say the government does not have to be led by the largest party.

The question of whether it's legal (it is and always has been) and whether it's legitimate (a matter of opinion) are different but it does highlight how ridiculous it is that there's no formal constitution that can be referred to. Vernon Bogdanor will make out like a bandit in interview fees either way.

^^ Papers won't care about legality as long as they can insinuate.

UKIP's positioning has been helped by the massive amount of screen time lavished on them by the BBC, for example. They don't mind the 'BNP in Blazers' as long as they keep the blazers on.

As a sidebar, the UKIP website only mentions the BNP in passing, relating to the expulsion of two UKIP members who were existing BNP members. The BNP website has a length explanation of why you should stick with them instead of going UKIP, which amusingly includes the fact that UKIP are free marketers, whereas the BNP has the most sweeping series of nationalisation plans of any major party (+the BNP).

thing is for both parties that the set of racists and EU-haters is much smaller than the set of people who let those passions determine their votes

The BNP have virtually disappeared from political discourse over the last few years, although support for extreme RW parties usually drains away during periods of Tory government, or the early years of one at least.

YouGov's Anthony Wells make his prediction

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377

As it is though, my personal best guess is Conservatives around 277 seats, Labour around 267, the Lib Dems around 29 and the SNP around 52. I’ll revisit those once we have the final polls.

xp

UKIP have v deliberately focused on immigration rather than the EU per se tho, which is where I draw the connections

SNP wont get more than 40. Tactical voting is in play up here to keep them out. (never thought id see the day tory and labour voters combining but then again after the last 2 years we saw the true colours)

The fact they might still get 40 shows the anger against the Scottish labour party and how they are seen as red tories.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/three-charts-show-scotland-should-stop-whining

Nice non-inflammatory headline here.

UKIP's traditional poor communications mean that their pivot away from the EU has failed to trickle down to, er, Nigel Farage.

(xp) open season on Scots basically, left, right and centre, makes you proud to be British!

In Basingstoke today. There's a UKIP 'shop' in the town centre. The local UKIP candidate also runs an antique shop around the corner and recently handed in his son to the police for stealing antiques from him. The son is also a member of Basingstoke and Dean Council.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2990572/Ukip-candidate-hands-son-police-discovering-stock-antiques-shop-stolen.html

UKIP are a remarkably spivvy group, aren't they?

I'm not really receptive to all this SNP-bashing, but I feel like "last time I got all caught up in a massive landslide it turned out my expectations were naive" is not really the best way to begin explaining why you're voting SNP this time round.

Not sure what that's in reference to, but I think that factor probably hurts the Greens far more than the SNP.

That widely-anticipated Green Party landslide, yes.

My disappointment with Labour peaked under Blair but I stuck with them because I like my local MP. I can't imagine only turning away from them now, when the leader is more left-wing than the previous two. But then I don't have the SNP as an option.

The SNP aren't that left wing either, btw this Red Tories thing is like 'Tony Bliar', annoying and stupid.

You hear that quite a lot, but the party membership has been swollen beyond all recognition by the influx of much more left-wing Scots, and while some of them might drift away, the numbers are so huge that some of them will get into positions of power in the party and a lot of them will vote at conference and I think it's quickly becoming a firmly left-wing party.

Wish someone would try the same trick with the Tories. They have so few members we could probably take them over with ILXors alone.

another prediction, by a bunch of academics under the banner "Polling Observatory"

including:

Dr Robert Ford, Senior Lecturer in Politics
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/rob.ford/personaldetails

http://may2015.com/ideas/separate-academic-forecast-tories-will-win-vote-by-2-3-points-but-miliband-most-likely-pm/
Polling Observatory is Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien.

Tory — 274 (251-305)
Labour — 272 (244-295)
SNP — 54 (46-58)
Lib Dem — 24 (18-29)
Ukip — 2 (1-4)
Others — 6
Northern Ireland — 18

there are another 5 sets of different predictions @
http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

bbc newsnight are using:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
3 academics
Chris Hanretty, University of East Anglia
Benjamin Lauderdale, London School of Economics
Nick Vivyan, Durham University

twitter: https://twitter.com/Election4castUK
they normally update at midnight, so a final prediction to come

miliband plank

while they're not that left wing i've been a bit taken aback lately to see that some ppl still use "tartan tories" as their go-to snp insult, like it's just a generic epithet detached from any etymology

The SNP are able to look more left-wing than they generally have been because of the extent to which British politics (and what is ludicrously still called the "centre ground") has drifted so far to the right.

You do get a general sense of a desperate widespread need to *believe* in a political party, that just doesn't exist in England right now, but also makes me wonder how a credible anti-austerity party would fare in England. But there's no infrastructure for that to happen right now, Scotland has been lucky to have an established, well-funded vehicle for that momentum sitting there already.

Ah right Matt, you meant Labour, sorry - I thought it was a reference to the Clegg Mania last time.

Labour doing a lot better there than almost any other prediction I've seen of late. So if a lot of auld yins shuffle down to the polling booth to burst SNP's bubble (or partially deflated it), as they did in the referendum, Labour should be the largest party?

I can't take SNP seriously as a left-wing alternative until they give that creep Brian Soutar his million quid back.

also makes me wonder how a credible anti-austerity party would fare in England

or a left-wing Brexit party

Every poll has been saying SNP = 50. In the last day or two people have been saying there is no way they will get this much. Does seem to be just a feeling..

Ladbrokes now calling it for Cameron

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/06/boris-johnson-guardian-readers-vote-tory-general-election-conservatives

Johnson, who is standing for election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, has been deployed daily to at least 20 tight seats

*snicker*

re: or a left-wing Brexit party

an attempt was made a few years ago by Professor Alan Sked, to form a new party, called New Deal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal_(British_political_party)

but the leader had an illness and the project was placed on hold.

the cabinet manual that cameron signed off seems pretty sensible, the griping of clegg/right-wing press seems like hot air, there is surely no mechanic or authority they cld appeal to

ed balls
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CEWgltVWMAAXsIc.jpg

According to The Times our Queen is gonna sort it.

Final polls. Tories look fucked but its about seats:

SV: CON 33 LAB 33
YG: CON 34 LAB 34
CR: CON 35 LAB 34
ICM: CON 35 LAB 35
PB: LAB 33 CON 31

more on...

Final Polls
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9403

If this plays out as widely expected we are about to experience the most monumental collective hissy fit in recent memory.

Doesn't anyone think the UK should follow France and others in banning opinion polling after an election date has been announced?

I thought about this today, but there's some good comes of it, isn't there? You can see it spurring "oh shit this is really tight I need to vote"-type thinking, as well as giving a good steer for tactical voters.

But on the other hand it would have been a hilarious surprise if the SNP had swept all the Scottish seats when nobody had really been expecting it.

Definitely! But of course the polls themselves are driving it to a large extent.

Election results would be very different without polling in the month leading up to them. I'm 100% for banning them.

i was expecting something more along the Kinnock/ lightbulb lines for Ed in The S*n this morning. i guess yesterday's bacon sandwich thing was the best they could muster. arseholes.