DEM not gonna CON dis NATION: Rolling UK politics in the short-lived post-Murdoch era

I'm hoping Delia Smith and Ronnie O'Sullivan voicing their support for Labour is going to change everything.

Given that Labour have been running around Scotland for weeks espousing the "biggest party forms the government" line, they wouldn't want to look like hypocrites in the face of being hoisted on their own petard, would they?

fear of deselection/losing seat next go round might well come into it

I think we said that last time.

i wonder if there are any salient differences between this election and the last one

The Independent wants more of the same, please:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html

It is clear that not only our democracy, but our kingdom, is in some peril.

handwringing over democracy and the feudal system in the same sentence, nice touch

I still think we'll end up with a more or less workable Tory minority

You've kept saying that since day one - what does workable mean? Do they get through 12bn in welfare cuts?

I'm beginning to wonder what century we're living in, tbh. If the Labour-SNP thing ever happens, I would strongly recommend the authorities double security patrols on the cellars in the Houses of Parliament and MI6 keep tabs on men in doublet and pointed beards and on the movement of barrels of gunpowder.

I always lived wanted to live through some of history's greatest moments tbh.

From the Independent editoral:

... if the present Coalition is to get another chance, we hope it is much less conservative, and much more liberal.

UK General Election 2010 (share of vote):
Conservative Party - 36.1%
Liberal Democrats - 23%

BBC Poll Tracker, May 2nd, 2015:
Conservative Party - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 8%

Xyzzz - I mean that I think they and the Lib Dems will hang onto more seats than people are expecting and that'll be enough for them to push some legislation through with support for smaller parties.

Suspect they won't be able to get £12bn of welfare cuts through because those Lib Dems who do remain are likely to be less obliging when out of a formal coalition. My guess is that one of the reasons the Tories have been throwing around obviously uncosted pledges on tax and spending is that they will be able to water them down later under the guise of post-election "negotiations". No matter how batshit the party is, the leadership must surely have been planning for a hung parliament as the most likely outcome.

I know a few people within the Treasury and the general feeling is that the Tories have thrown a lot of post-election planning out of the window in the last couple of weeks and no one has any idea where the money is going to go and how they propose to keep their pledges on tax, NHS spending and deficit reduction all at once.

To elaborate, the Treasury obviously plan with various scenarios in mind based on how they expect the various parties to behave and were reasonably confident they knew what the Tories were going to do in the event of re-election, and the Tories have basically blown that up completely now.

I liked this quite a bit.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2015/04/30/john-lanchester/episode-16-the-balance-of-power/

M ost scenarios covered. The role of Lib Dems as king makers this time around has been underdiscussed.

Lib Dems tearing themselves in two over which way to coalesce wd be one of the more palatable outcomes of this election

One scenario that I've not seen covered is if Nick Clegg loses his seat the Lib Dems will have to choose a new leader who may think differently enough to Clegg - who of course would love to keep his job.

Tim Farron is often mentioned as the next leader, and he's supposedly about as far left as you can get in the Liberal Democrats. Supposedly.

The UKIP Scotland site http://ukipscotland.org/ on their manifesto posters doesn't exist. David Coburn blamed "Cybernats".

― mea nulta (onimo), Monday, 4 May 2015 12:30 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They launched their Scottish manifesto without a Scottish manifesto (apparently because of some printing/courier/bank holiday mix up).

They gave out a British manifesto, which didn't mention Scotland once, instead.

A journalist discovered their promoted UKIP Scotland domain was for sale when trying to find a manifesto online.

UKIP's Scottish chairman Arthur Thackerey then didn't have a hard copy of his speech because of a different printing error and couldn't read the speech from his laptop because it kept freezing.

Their candidate for Perth didn't show at hustings because he's busy campaigning for a council seat in England.

I think it's safe to say they're not expecting to return many MPs from Scotland.

It's looking like Clegg will end up pulling in enough tactical Tory votes to get himself over the line, but if he were to lose his seat I'd guess the LibDems would have to poll their remaining MPs to decide on who to support in coalition/confidence and supply?

Was in Cornwall at the weekend, in a LIB seat that is genuinely in play, and there were these LibDem canvassers in a pub there who were expressing how much they wished Clegg has stepped down before the election because "the man's fucking poison on the doorstep".

Also reminded me how little campaigning I've seen in London this time around.

Depends where you are I suppose, obv. no point in campaigning in my constituency f'rinstance but I imagine a few doors are being knocked in Bermondsey.

our door's been knocked an aggravating number of times (marginal constituency) but i've seen almost no posters or signs in people's houses contra other years, you could walk through most residential neighbourhoods round here and have no idea there's an election on

i was saying on the other thread or maybe this one, that nobody has called to my door. i guess bg/bow is nailed on labour.

yesterday a car drove down my (quiet and one-way) street and a child was shouting "vote glin robbins" (local socialist candidate) into a megaphone - it was extremely loud and weird and overall kind of wrong. who would have their child do this? it was nice to see some community spirit rising as people beeped their horn and shouted abuse, i think the car was moving very slowly. i mean, is this even legal?

Yeah, we had a SNP guy megaphoning/driving round our part of the East End of Glasgow on Sunday morning, which seemed incredibly counterproductive - difficult to think he's making many converts, and more likely to piss off the slumbering undecideds.

yeah i was thinking that, that ending up 10 minutes late for something due to a politician or their son screaming into a mic is prob going to influence a person more than any policy. though i doubt anyone is voting for glin robbins anyway, it had a feeling of wacky british "banter" or something which made it even worse.

i guess bg/bow is nailed on labour.

Can Respect really not be arsed these days or has that ship sailed?

dunno if they're even running. i didn't see any flyers or anything. you'd barely know anyone is running here, i got a few flyers but no other sense of anything going on.

i find it kind of pathetic that they wouldn't canvass based on "o well labour are going to win this anyway" - like is it not part of the point of this that you might meet your future mp or whatever? it's p symptomatic of the rank state of politics in this country.

FPTP

it's just such a farcical system, the powerlessness...

bg & bow I've had a few election flyers in the past fortnight but half as many as takeaway flyers

otm - they really bombard you with those - tho i've voted top taste szechuan on roman road since about 2013 and they've always got the job done.

Time for a change?

possibly, recently i was in my room listening to music and didn't hear the bell and the driver rang expressing concern for my safety - "you always answer the door quickly so i wondered if something was up"

Christ the front pages this morning are abysmal. The Mail's in particular is farcical with the "Don't Vote Ed!11!!1!/In other news the NHS is fucked" double-hit.

i was saying on the other thread or maybe this one, that nobody has called to my door

Tory/LD marginal here and nobody has called, or at least not while I've been in. Labour haven't even sent any leaflets round.

There are as many posters up around me as I've seen in any previous election or maybe more, though; have seen quite a few for each of the 3 (formerly?) main parties, plus Greens, but no UKIP that I recall.

Some of the Tory and Lib Dem posters are comically huge, like a couple of places have Lib Dem diamonds several feet across, just on a suburban fence or the side of their house or w/e. Also the Lib Dem ones say "winning here" which is slightly questionable since they didn't win in 2010 and they're not ahead in the most recent local poll I saw either.

I'm not really sure who'll win scrape into govt locally or nationally (not even sure who I'll vote for), but I am beginning to brace myself for either another 5 years of horrible Tory-led coalitions or 5 years of Labour ever more desperately pretending to be the Tories and having any non-horrible policies defeated (if they think of any), all to daily shrieking front pages about nanny state reds under the bed end of proud tradition of British democracy whatever. What fun we'll have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_Yx0X-eHn8

i was promised a "short-lived" era, wtf

Given this overlong era is drawing to a close (in one way or another) I'm going to lock this one and keep the conversation going on the other thread:

2015 UK General Election campaign & aftermath discussion thread.