Rahm Emanuel: C/D? (probably going to be a Chicago politics complaint thread too)

Paying for the sins of the past. I'm dumb - who if anyone are considered 'reformers' that can legitimately get the city out of this mess? Good read - thanks for sharing.

Exactly. That's my problem with a populist candidate that says they will enact policies that the constituents support. No group is going to support what it will take to get out of this mess. Unions aren't going to waiver and everyone else doesn't want to pay more taxes or have services cuts. Compromise won't be sufficient.

Then with Rahm, you have someone willing to make really unpopular decisions, but is so self-interested and believes that giving corps all these tax breaks and sweetheart deals will bring people/jobs/industries to the city. That's not going to work either.

Lose/Lose.

http://chicagoist.com/2015/03/29/ald_bob_fioretti_set_to_endorse_rah.php

$lol$

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qZYHreLBp4&feature=youtu.be

That was just a love tap.

Glad this all ends next week, kind of burned out on following it all.

http://www.chicagoreader.com/Bleader/archives/2015/03/30/rahm-emanuel-hates-illinois-nazis

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/rahm-emanuel-reelection-chicago-mayor-20150327

Chicago is doomed says John B. Judis

Chicago's finances will continue to be imperiled. The day of reckoning will near, as pension bills increase. The city's social divide will likely continue to worsen. And whoever ends up serving as mayor will face a daunting set of challenges, with few clear solutions in sight.

Yup!

Yeah, that's the thing I keep coming back to when I see the ads or read more about the election, these guys are fighting over the right to have probably one of the most thankless jobs you can have during one of the most difficult times ever to hold said job.

Well here's part of our problem. http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20150331/downtown/15-billion-unpaid-tickets-could-be-huge-cash-cow-for-chicago

ONE POINT FIVE BILLION.

I'm sure Chicago could find a good use for $1.5B but even still, accounting on the scale that a city does it is so much more complicated than "revenue in, expenditures out." I don't know a ton about Chicago's pension situation, for instance, but when people complained about Detroit in the same terms, one of the places the REAL big money had gone was into predatory and risky financial deals the city had cut with BANKS.

http://www.msnbc.com/the-ed-show/why-detroit-broke-and-whos-being-asked-t

And "walkaways," in which banks foreclose on property owners and force them out, but then stall the process of actually taking possession of the property, and leave it empty and in limbo so the bank owes no property taxes and has no responsibility for the property.

From Wikipedia: The GAO found that in the period January 2008 to March 2010, mortgage servicers charged off 46,000 properties, with 60 percent of the charge-offs occurring before an initial foreclosure filing was made. In this period, Detroit, Michigan had the highest number of bank walkaways, with Chicago, Illinois being second.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_walkaway

Yeah, of course it's more complicated than money in/out. But damn that 1.5 billion would be useful. I know it would be impossible to collect 100%, but even part of it would help with the cities obligation for police/firefighter pension for 2016 ($550 million) and teachers ($660 million). That would avoid all kinds of penalties without having to attempt to re-negotiate those bank swaps.

Other interesting election bits from aldertrack this morning. 82,504 early votes so far. In the February election, there were only 37,601. Five more days to go on early voting.

And regarding the latest polling numbers that show Rahm with a big lead:

It is not hyperbole to say that except for 1983, this is the closest and hottest mayoral race Chicago has experienced in living memory. Now that Election Day is only a week away, the latest poll results on everyone’s mind: 58% Rahm Emanuel and 30% for Jesus “Chuy” Garcia and 9% undecided according to Chicago Tribune's poll completed March 28.

According to the polls, Emanuel coming April 7 victory should be obvious.

And yet, yesterday Carol Feisenthal interviewed Garcia’s Finance Chair, David Schaffer, who says, “Our polls show there’s no way Rahm can win.” There’s doubt that Shaffer’s using some hyperbole of his own, but what he’s saying is not totally unreasonable. To understand where he’s coming from you have to ask a few important questions about polling and turnout. And as with most elections, these questions are not really answerable until Election Day. But these are the questions we ask ourselves when reviewing poll results.

How many of the Early Votes going in are for Emanuel versus Garcia? This election’s early voting results are almost double those of the general election, and much more than any previous contest. The biggest turnouts are in wards traditionally friendly to Emanuel, but what percentage actually voting for Emanuel is hard to quantify. For instance, the Northwest Side’s 45th, 41st, 39th and 38th Wards had low totals for Emanuel in the general (see map, starting page 61), and Garcia is campaigning hard there. The 47th, 48th, 49th and 19th Wards were also stronger for Garcia in the general than most observers anticipated.

How many Emanuel voters will travel on Spring Break next week? It is totally conjecture, but many assume wealthier voters who have the means to travel for Spring Break are Emanuel voters. Think 44th, 43rd, 2nd, 32nd and 42nd Wards. Nobody knows this for sure, but Sen. Dick Durbin has put big bucks behind the idea with a mailer to these wards encouraging people to early or absentee vote.

How effective will the Garcia ground game be? When asked about early voting, Garcia allies repeatedly say, “Rahm will win the early vote, but we’ll win Election Day with our ground game.” SEIU, CTU, UWF, Action Now and local community groups have been phone banking and knocking doors for Garcia, but exactly how big their operation is hard to quantify and we won’t know if they will show until at least next weekend.

How many voters are going unpolled? All pollsters agree, large portions of Chicago's poor minority community go unpolled because they have unreliable phone listings. It is hard to quantify the size of this group, but it could be as much as 15% of the electorate.

How many Latinos will turnout to vote? 23% of Chicago’s population is Latino, but traditionally only 15% have regularly turned out to vote. There is no doubt Garcia has fired up Latinos, but will they show?

Where will African-American voters land? Chicago’s African American community has always been vexingly hard to poll and polling results of African American voters that can be obtained often show large undecided numbers. It is significant that of the 18 majority African American wards, seven are in runoffs and one has a new alderman already. Nothing should be taken for granted here.

It is our opinion that, with still a week out, the outcome of the mayor’s race is far from clear. While some anticipated a runoff election, few expected Garcia to do as well as he did on February 24. Based on that history, It would be smart to keep asking questions until April 7.

Are you guys in Chicago seeing any public campaigning: leaflets on the sidewalk, handshaking, etc.?

I've gotten about 5 pieces of Rahm campaign mail but that's it.

i saw some cretin removing chuy signs and replacing them with rahm signs
i also don't think this parking ticket thing is going to solve any problems considering that i've gotten three $200 tickets for an infraction that i did not commit and i had to contest them all in writing with evidence

I've only gotten a lot of robocalls. Joy of owning a landline.

We've gotten a lot of Rahm mail, and holy shit so many roborahmcalls. If I was even inclined to vote for him, I would probably rethink it considering how obnoxious the phone calls are.

I get emails and calls from Garcia, but that's because I signed up for them in a moment of enthusiasm for getting involved that I have been unable to follow up on due to real life.

I haven't seen either candidate in person. Maybe that's because we live in a Very Rahm Ward so nobody feels compelled to come here. Plus I don't work in the Thompson Center anymore, which is where I used to see Rahm glad-handing the locals a couple times a week.

Maybe that's because we live in a Very Rahm Ward so nobody feels compelled to come here.

Less Rahm than you think, since it does include Logan Square. Not close to being as Rahm as 42/43/44 are. Very Rahm neighborhood though, for sure. Other than getting from his house to the loop, very little reason for Rahm to spend much time in Brown line stations.

There are definitely more Garcia signs than Rahm signs in my neighborhood, and the Garcia folks have been canvassing there too.

Garcia folks canvassing hard in west logan sq. area - came home to 5 flyers - 4 Garcia, 1 Emanual yesterday.

When I lived in Chicago a decade ago and would get tickets for being in the wrong spot during street cleaning, my neighbor said to just mark the "contest this ticket in court" box and drop it in the mail. I was assured that the wait for a court date would be so long that it just be stuck in limbo forever and I'd never end up having to pay it.

I tried it and sure enough, never did get a date assigned. I imagine a pretty fair amount of that $1.5b is tied up in a similar fashion.

(xposts)

don't worry, guys, all American cities are doomed, you may just get there first.

We'll let you know how it goes.

http://newcity.com/2015/03/30/checkerboard-city-transit-platforms/

Nothing new here that I haven't shared before, but summarized neatly.

If you're a follow the money type person, these are interesting:

http://apps.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/rahm-emanuel-contributions-2015/?#
http://apps.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/chuy-garcia-contributions-2015/#

tl;dr, big corps own Rahm, unions own Garcia. I find both problematic.

Also, lol my place of employment contributing <largish amount of money> to Rahm. Could have just added that to my salary.

http://www.timeout.com/chicago/blog/chicagos-most-gerrymandered-wards%E2%80%8B

the most demented jigsaw puzzle pieces ever

ha, we were just talking about the Second Ward at work after the previous election day, because one of my coworkers lives there and he was so confused about how it could possibly stretch as far E-W as it does. bizarre.

speaking of unions & garcia, guess who has two thumbs and is phone banking for chuy from the office next week

After unprecedented early voting numbers, early reports today say turnout at the polls has been about the same as it was for the primary.

There were 4 electioneers outside my polling place today compared to 1 in the primary.

I work at a polling place so I stopped in to chat with the ppl working there. "Jim" said that turnout has been steady and similar to primary. There weren't any ppl outside either, just signs.

http://www.yasminnair.net/content/rahm-chuy-and-real-problem-chicago-politics

This was a good read. Regardless of whether or not you agree with who she is voting for, I though the points about the power of the mayor were interesting.

But I won’t spend more time on the problems with either candidate. My bigger concern is that the current election is not a harbinger of change as much as a signal of a deeper, bigger problem for Chicago politics: That the desire for change continues to be defined not by real agendas but a desire to mimic and become part of the city’s infamous machine political structure.

The only way for Chicago to emerge from its current morass of deep political, social, and economic distress, the sort so easily papered over by images of its pristine downtown architectural skyline, is to release the stranglehold of the Mayor’s office over this city.

I voted! I was the only person at my polling place, but there's only one thing on the ballot so it's not like people were spending a lot of time on it.

It's ironic to chastise Chuy for not having a real plan behind his rhetoric and then call on Chicago to "release the stranglehold of the Mayor’s office over this city" without discussing how this would happen on a practical level. Like her plan is just ... stop caring about who the mayor is?

That's what we did for 22 years.

I think it's an interesting power balance between the mayor and the city council. Seems like the best chance of reducing mayoral power is to increase the members of the progressive caucus. Seven now, but potential for nine more after today's run-offs. Aldertrack did a good rundown of potential reorganization scenarios a few weeks ago: http://eepurl.com/bi1GYz

Wasn't that the common wisdom of what went wrong with Harold Washington? That he had insufficient power over an obstructionist city council so he wasn't able to get anything done?

Yes, the linked article above touches on that.

CBS called it already for Rahm. http://cbsloc.al/1FcpeCa

Very interested to see all the ward/precinct breakdowns tomorrow.

By ward:

http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20150407/downtown/live-chicago-election-results-mayoral-aldermanic-races

Data visualization people, please make your maps bigger and stop cramming them in a tiny window.

32nd wards strong showing for Rahm definitely highlights how gentrified Logan Square has become.

I like this one: http://maxrust.cartodb.com/viz/56c84460-ddc8-11e4-88f1-0e0c41326911/public_map Zoom way out for an overview, close in for each precinct. Wish this one showed ward boundries too.

These are good to, brings in demographics. http://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/April-2015/Chicago-mayor-runoff-results/

Dan Hertz should have some maps up at some point. Always informative: http://danielkayhertz.com/

Progressive caucus gained 5 members, total 13 now: http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20150407/downtown/five-wards-chicago-voters-reject-old-guard-aldermen

7 vote difference in the 10th ward: http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20150406/hegewisch/ald-john-pope-susan-sadlowski-garza-ready-for-10th-ward-runoff

Still not decided in the 43rd ward, Smith leads by less than 100 votes. I have interest in this one because Smith supports bringing back the Lincoln bus. But both candidates said they'd think requiring bikes to have a license, lol stupid. http://www.dnainfo.com/chicago/20150408/lincoln-park/43rd-ward-too-close-call-ald-michele-smith-leads-by-98-votes

A new Daley on city council. I thought it was interesting that he was running against a 26 year old 3rd year law student. How the frickfrack does he have time to be an alderman and go to law school? Anyway, good on him for at least forcing a run off against a Daley with a ward that contains Bridgeport: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/508058/daley-nephew-grandson-join-city-council-foulkes-fate-unclear

IMPORTANT: Garcia charging 8.50 for a domestic beer at his party, Rahm had an open bar: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/507803/national-beer-day-garcia-charging-8-one-election-party

Things I think are overblown:

All the articles about Rahm heard what Chicago is saying to him and he'll listen more, blah blah blah. You're not going to see a drastic change in the man, you know what you're getting when you vote for him, for better or for worse.

People saying that Karen Lewis would have won, and even won easily. She probably would have done better than Garcia, and it would have been a more interesting race. But she's so polarizing, I can't see any of the wards in which Rahm winning big changing that much. She would have picked up more votes in the majority black wards that supported Rahm over Garcia, but how much ground could she make up in those wards? Rahm won every majority black ward. He won every ward south of 67th street with the exception of 10. I don't know really, just my guess.

I need a break for politics now. No idea why I got drawn into this election so much. I'm going back to being apolitical for awhile. See ya!

so no Crazy Lefty Money Machine, ie RIP presidential election '16

I have enjoyed Chicago Politics Expert Jeff. Thank you!

A new Daley on city council. I thought it was interesting that he was running against a 26 year old 3rd year law student. How the frickfrack does he have time to be an alderman and go to law school? Anyway, good on him for at least forcing a run off against a Daley with a ward that contains Bridgeport: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/508058/daley-nephew-grandson-join-city-council-foulkes-fate-unclear

Ran into Kozlar while out walking the dog the other day and talked to him for a minute. Seems like a nice guy. I dunno how he could have the time, either. Also, this is the second time he's run for 11th alderman, so last time he was 22?

http://radaronline.com/photos/rod-blagojevich-prison-photos-mental-breakdown-claims/photo/1033970/

"I want a pack of cigarettes daily, a pillow and bedding, and a quality copy machine."

Okay, RB saying that a Texas gang and the mafia are after him isn't him losing his mind. That's just him being RB. Second, the only thing that could make his hair even more magnificent is for it to be silvery white, so that is a really good look.

And god help me, I feel kind of sorry for him. He seems to harmless compared to Rauner. What's a little corruption compared to cutting vital services that people in IL need to actually survive?