Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

liner off the face; just a little dental work.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/12530522/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-gets-extra-dental-work-being-hit-face-line-drive

James had a long piece a few months ago about ranking starting pitchers; his site now ranks all the current starters and updates the rankings daily. Kershaw started the year with a sizeable lead, but Scherzer and/or Felix may pass him within a start or two. (Not saying I agree with this--I'm inclined to question any system that has R.A. Dickey in the Top 20.)

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

It's based on game scores, and it's all explained here:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/

that's interesting, i'll have to check in on it occasionally. as you'd expect, it incorporates a lot of past performance into the score, so strasburg is still top 25 even though he's been awful so far this season, and wainwright is at 12 even though he's already been out for a while and won't be back til next year.

Yeah, it's very much a rolling thing that goes back three, maybe four seasons (and includes postseason, hence Bumgarner up near the top). I like this:

When a pitcher is a candidate for the Hall of Fame, the fact that he was the #1 ranked pitcher in the world for two years is going to be a major credential that his supporters can point to--or, vice versa, if the pitcher was never #1, it’s a major hole in his resume.

If you tracked this through the '80s, I bet Morris only made it into the top half-dozen for one or two short stretches (and was never close to #1).

yeah for me you had to have been one of the best 5 players in the league for at least a few seasons to be a hall of famer. i use the same argument with the NBA HOF, which is much more of a "big hall" than baseball's. i prefer the small hall tbh

Awesome last night. I didn't know what to make of his slow start--most of his peripherals were still good, but we've seen (admittedly older: Verlander, Sabathia) some pitchers suddenly go south recently, so I wasn't sure if there was something going on there.

Scherzer just edged ahead of Kershaw for the #1 spot in James's rankings.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

Kershaw's been bumped one more night, but when he faces Trout tomorrow, it will evidently be the first reigning-MVP-to-reigning-MVP regular-season match-up ever.

(According to Facebook according to Reddit according to whoever they got it from. But it sounds reasonable.)

Eight more scoreless innings for Kershaw, his scoreless streak is up to 37 innings.

He's on pace for 300 K this year too.

First Kershaw-Trout AB yesterday:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v320177383/laalad-kershaw-strikes-out-trout-looking-in-the-1st/?game_pk=415196

(xpost) Didn't realize how long its been since someone did this: Randy Johnson in 2002. As strikeouts go up and up, find that odd. The five-man rotation and rote use of bullpen was all in place 15 years ago, no?

have to think # of IP by starters per game has decreased since then

Trout and Harper are historic, but Kershaw is clearly the most dominant player in baseball right now. I assume they know what they're doing with the 132 pitches.

doyers called up bolsinger, which leads me to believe they're gonna six-man the rotation to lighten his load

not quite as dominant as Dallas Keuchel, really.

Keuchel or not, he is building a case for a 4th cy young

seager called up too btw

unless you are giving enormous weight to Ks, Kershaw is probably not the best pitcher on his team this year.

Kershaw has the lead in Fangraphs WAR

& counterpoint, greinke does on baseball-ref

WARP computed using DRA, Greinke by 6.70-6.49

(BP)

'building a case' doesn't mean 'automatic winner', but yeah, I do give importance to xFIP.

what is DRA?

I like James's rankings, which take a longer view than four or five months (the logic that every year puts a couple of guys into the All-Star Game on the basis of a fast start and little else).

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

The gap between Kershaw (#1) and Greinke (#2) there is as large as the gap between Greinke and Cueto at #9. I think the Top 6 are exactly right. (Bumgarner gets credit for what he did in the postseason; ignore that, and he probably drops out.)

xp deserved run average, here's the BP explanation http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO9jMi2UsAEMjmi.png:large

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-20150915-story.html

Definitely a Cy argument for Kershaw--a strong one--but unless he has a couple of bad starts, Greinke will win. Which is fine.

300 K

@based_ball

Clayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final

2013: .521
2014: .521
2015: .521

Totally missed his first start. Not too shabby, says Adam Sandler.

95 Game Score today--and knocked in the only run.

Missed that last start of his...Has a 19.25 K/BB ratio (77/4); the record's 11-something. Basically takes one lousy start to cut that in half, though.

Basically he is having last season without the (relatively) first two months.

Newest member to the 50 fWAR club.

Seaver was as 51.7 at the end of his age-28 season, Pedro 52.0, Clemens 54.2. So he should stay ahead of those guys for another season, although keeping up with Clemens at the other end will be near-impossible.

(I was going by Baseball Reference.)

Pretty sure Fangraphs/ xFIP rates him more. Here's to another 50 WAR.

Probably a dumb question but is it possible to figure out which game he'll likely be pitching in the Cubs/Dodgers series at the end of the month or is too far away to predict reliably?

you could guess just by following the 5-man rotation and seeing when his turn would be up again. but it could be altered by rainouts, injuries, and weird baseball(tm) occurrences

A month-plus out, we left it to chance and it almost worked out--missed him by a day.

I like looking up mismatched odds. You have to bet $375 on Kershaw today to win $100. That's about as long as baseball odds ever get--I guess Kershaw vs. the Braves would be even longer.

he's sposed to pitch vs Bartolo (again) in NY next Sunday night, which means there should be some decent tix available due to the time switch

(ok, not as many as there wd be on a non-holiday weekend)

not as many as there were when i bought in anticipation 3 weeks ago

wow kudos

maddux alert through 8

https://twitter.com/SamMillerBP/status/734966240888819712

Obviously a little giddy and premature, but I love this:

•In five May starts, he has had more shutouts (three) than walks (two).

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/180219652/clayton-kershaw-goat-may-2016-dodgers?partnerId=ed-10369488-658620023