From [TBC] To The Polar Lands - Rolling Russia / "Near Abroad" News Thread

The Merkel / Hollande proposal for a DMZ while talks continue about autonomy / status seems sensible, although whether it will work any better than the original Minsk agreements remains to be seen. Merkel has clearly stated that she doesn't support supplying more weapons to Ukraine and has echoed Poroshenko's original position that there is no military solution to the crisis.

A leaked German intelligence report has suggested the death toll might be closer to 50,000 than 5,000 but its not clear what that is based on.

THe Ukrainian parliament seems to have gone temporarily nuts with new laws this week that authorise the execution of army deserters and corporal punishment for any soldiers found drinking alcohol. They have also banned all Russian films made after 2013 from being distributed in Ukraine - meaning even the likes of Leviathan, which is widely seen as being critical of the Russian state, can't legally be screened. The security services have just arrested a journalist critical of the "Anti-Terror Operation" for treason.

In context, especially given the failure to transition away from corrupt factionalism, George Soros' statement that "Ukraine is now what the EU should aspire to be - a participatory democracy" seems ludicrous - particularly to many of the pro-Maidan liberals he had initially backed. Even Hromadske, the news agency that he partially funds, was critical.

http://tchaykovsky.ru/rusphobi_1/simon_heffer.jpg

Ukraine has finally stopped trying to prop up the Hryvnia, with the market rate falling from 24 UAH to 38 UAH vs the GBP, over the last three days.

The last time i was there before the crisis, it was around 12.

There's confusion over exactly what is going on in Minsk at the moment. The Guardian was reporting an hour ago that Poroshenko had rejected Russian conditions for an agreement but some fairly reliable journalists on Twitter are suggesting that a deal was agreed between all the leaders eventually and the separatists have said no.

The IMF has agreed a $17.5bn bailout deal, though, with talks on restructuring debt to follow.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/276661

Developments!

Ceasefire to start on the 15th.
Heavy weapons to be withdrawn to fixed lines.
POWs, including Nadiya Savchenko, to be released.
Some form of constitutional reform agreed to placate East.

No mention of Crimea, as far as i can tell. Not sure whether separatists have agreed but Putin and Poroshenko seem on the same page.

http://i.imgur.com/usGTPQi.png?1

Not even a mention of there not being a mention of Crimea in the deal. Perhaps a fait accompli at this stage.

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_2QY2S_czQ2k/Tbk2QTsmMII/AAAAAAAABpc/_6WfLDFwp6k/4_Portrait_of_Giovanni_Arnolfini_and_his_Wife_detail_1_Renaissance_Jan_van_Eyck_thumb%5B9%5D.jpg?imgmax=800

https://twitter.com/vpkivimaki/status/565652936962084865

Also good value from that link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9me_43IQAE0Sl1.jpg

do you watch any of this series

https://news.vice.com/show/russian-roulette

I haven't seen many but probably should catch up with them. Vice's reporters are a mixed bag but Harriet Salem is consistently good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rnSF4h22XU

The UAH is still collapsing, despite the peace accords and IMF funding agreement:

http://i.imgur.com/lXLnTR0.png

Nov 2013: 12 UAH to the GBP
Jan 2015: 22 UAH to the GBP
Feb 2015: 50 UAH to the GBP

The decline against the USD is probably even worse, and more relevant as debt is largely paid, and gas largely bought, in Dollars. Horrific situation.

Yesterday: Russia agreed to provide stabilisation loans to Cyprus.

Today: Cyprus has agreed to let the Russian navy use its ports

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31632259

"Our friendly ties aren't aimed against anyone," President Putin said. "I don't think it should cause worries anywhere"

Yep, let's see how that works out.

boy i sure hope there aren't any other countries in that part of the world desperate for a loan on favourable terms

This morning alone the UAH went from 50 to the GBP to 43 and then back up to 53. Property is typically priced in USD and a lot of people took out Dollar mortgages when the currency was stable. I can't imagine living with that level of uncertainty.

http://www.euronews.com/2015/02/18/dollar-mortgage-crisis-in-urkaine/

Currently reading an extraordinary story about a Russian guy who ran away from an orphanage in the 1980s and was given a passport in 2004 despite not having a birth certificate. He was arrested in 2013, accused of using false documents, and has been in jail ever since. The Russian police have apparently used an expert in facial matching from photographs to accuse him of being a Ukrainian bank robber / murderer who is thought to be on the run in Russia. Nobody knows where the real criminal is, or if he's still alive, and the dude in prison has no way of proving that it's not actually him. Russia plans to extradite him.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=https%3A%2F%2Fopenrussia.org%2Fpost%2Fview%2F2974%2F&edit-text=

rip boris nemtsov, shot dead in the street

Footage from the scene showed police experts examining the corpse of a man, dressed in jeans and lying on the tarmac, with the domes of St Basil’s in the background.

My wife: "God, they're so obvious about everything." Me: "The obviousness is the point."

“Putin noted that this was a cruel murder and bears all the signs of a contract killing which appears exclusively provocative,” Peskov told ITAR-TASS.

Blimey. For context, he was an extremely marginal figure in electoral terms these days but a very well known activist / critic. Pretty much zero chance that the government was directly involved but entirely plausible the political atmosphere at the moment might have have prompted someone on the fringes to do it. The murder of critics isn't condoned but their demonisation as enemies of Russia is.

Peskov / Putin statement pretty much translates to 'someone did this to make us look bad', which is the line taken by the rabid pro-Kremlin bloc online. The idea that Putin ordered the killing, dominating a lot of the chatter outside Russia, is equally unlikely and misses the point.

Given the timing, there is a strong probability this relates to his organisation of protests against Russia's position on Ukraine / Crimea. Those protests would probably have drawn a couple of thousand people (though more now) which is tiny in the context of a country that is, for the most part, supportive of reclaiming Crimea, etc. However, you can't give tacit approval to a legion of bikers, Cossacks, 'orthodox jihadis', military fantasists, rabid nationalists and assorted other cranks and malcontents to fight over the border, stand by while people like Zhirinovsky, the anti-Maidan protesters, and sections of the right-wing press describe their critics as traitors, and then be surprised when they start picking up guns on their return.

There has been a lot of talk about what happens in Ukraine when the neo nazi battalions stop fighting the rebels. Less about what happens in Russia when their nutcases stop fighting with them.

yeah, i wouldn't be surprised if all the heavily-armed wackjobs riled up by the ukraine situation become a major problem. putin may regret the forces he's set in motion.

Looks like the police have found a car with Ingush number plates and they're trying out a Charlie Hebdo link for size. Will probably have a couple of confused day labourers in custody by the end of the week.

This is quite interesting:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/britain-gives-russian-tycoon-fridman-7-days-to-justify-ownership-of-gas-fields/517031.html

Mikhail Fridman has bought a load of North Sea gas fields as part of the €5bn takeover of a German energy company and the UK government has given a strong indication that it plans to force him to sell them to someone else. He has a week to convince them not to.

Fridman is not affected by the sanctions so, depending on how you look at it, it's either a precautionary measure in case sanctions are extended at some point in the future or another lever to put pressure on Russian business to, in turn, put pressure on the government.

The FSB has detained two Chechen men on suspicion of the Nemtsov killing, which will come as a huge surprise to absolutely nobody. They were apparently traced through the getaway car and wire taps.

No word on motive so far, thought there rarely is. A large proportion of hitmen are either Chechen or Russian soldiers who fought there, but they tend not to flip on who paid them.

Pretty much zero chance that the government was directly involved but entirely plausible the political atmosphere How did you figure it to be zero?
Maybe not Putin personally or explicitly, but, so close to the Kremlin and St. Basil, sure seems like some level of complicity: at the very least, looking the other way. So either blatantly Look What We Can Do and Fuck You, or a significant hole in the security system.

The streets around the Kremlin are open and not all that heavily guarded unless it's right on the perimeter. There are definitely questions around why it took several minutes for anyone to show up on the scene and why some of the security cameras were not working that play into conspiracy theorising but you could shoot someone and drive off pretty easily.

There is no obvious benefit to the goverment in having a minor protest figure shot and a lot of domestic and international risk. The memorial protest was probably at least 20 times bigger than the one he was organising. The treatment of Navalny is much more in line with the Kremlin's standard operating procedure - quashing dissent through targeted legal action. Had Nemtsov been seen as a major threat he would probably have been jailed over 90s corruption allegations. Unless he had something spectacular to reveal, it seems unlikely to me that they would want to bring the negative publicity. Even the most fervent pro-Putin commentators agree this looks terrible - they just claim it was done for that purpose.

There's no obvious benefit to a lot of the government's involvements, other than appealing to the worst elements, for political and financial profits, although the resulting sanctions have taken bites out of the latter. Doesn't seem like they care much about how things look to non-Russians. Supposedly, he was about to circulate another pamphlet, with more details about government corruption. Maybe it was just the last straw, for somebody, in or out of the government,

There are so many theories it's impossible to ever know for sure. The latest is that it was done to discredit Kadyrov rather than Putin, with the accused shooter being a serving Chechen soldier under his command. Commentators are largely winging it these days.

One political murder that certainly looks somewhat less ambiguous:

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/72416

Four suspects now in custody and a fifth apparently killed himself with a grenade when the police came for him in Grozny, which is likely to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Kadyrov has issued an odd statement on Instagram (obvs) calling Zaur Dadayev, who has apparently confessed, a great patriotic hero for his service in antiterrorist operations in Chechnya but also saying that he had had left the army for unknown reasons a while ago and hinting he might have gone off the deep end about Charlie Hebdo.

There's definitely something odd going on. Putin hasn't been seen for ten days and will, in theory, return for a meeting with the Kyrgyz president today.

Separately, a number of high-profile opposition activists, including Ksenia Sobchak, have been apparently given a heads-up by the FSB that the people who organised the Nemtsov murder are also after them. Sobchak has left Russia but it looks like a few very close Putin allies have also left abruptly with no explanation, including Vladislav Surkov - Putin's chief advisor on a number of issues, including the Caucasus.

This has led to speculation about attempted coups, rogue units in the Chechen special forces, a Kadyrov power-grab, an anti-Kadyrov campaign, etc, etc.

Kadyrov has affirmed his loyalty to Putin via Instagram but fueled the speculation by saying that the loyalty was independent of whether he was president.

It may well all be blown up out of proportion but the failure to manage the sense that something strange is happening is telling in itself.

For example, Hromadske, the Ukrainian US-backed new organisation:

http://youtu.be/f358z2_PMXo

The suggestion there is that there is an open conflict between the Kadyrov clan and the FSB (Russian state security bureau) and that Putin, who has very strong ties to Kadyrov, is caught in the middle.

Viktor Yanukovich Jr. may or may not have drowned at the weekend. Nobody seems to know for sure.

Lots going on in Ukraine. The oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, governor of Dnipropetrovsk, seems to have led an armed gang into the headquarters of a state oil firm to take issue with the sacking of the director. He funds a variety of militia groups at the moment, which Poroshenko is attempting to tame. The president is quoted as saying there will be no "pocket armies" and has sent two battalions of special forces troops to the city to "keep order". It has the capacity to turn uglier.

Separately, Kolomoisky was accused of a string of murders in a civil case in London between him, Bogolyubov and Pinchuk.

More on the Kolomoisky / Poroshenko spat:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/fight-between-kolomoisky-and-state-turns-ugly-384323.html

Kolomoisky has now officially been fired as governor of Dniepro for the armed raid on the gas company. That was kind of inevitable if the President is going to have any kind of meaningful authority but you now have a guy with no formal ties to the state bankrolling private militias with approx 15k soldiers. Even before he was fired, some of his supporters were talking about a new anti-Poroshenko Maidan. Hopefully won't come to anything but it's a grim prospect.

http://i.imgur.com/iqNufkG.jpg

lol

"
There's definitely something odd going on. Putin hasn't been seen for ten days and will, in theory, return for a meeting with the Kyrgyz president today.

Separately, a number of high-profile opposition activists, including Ksenia Sobchak, have been apparently given a heads-up by the FSB that the people who organised the Nemtsov murder are also after them. Sobchak has left Russia but it looks like a few very close Putin allies have also left abruptly with no explanation, including Vladislav Surkov - Putin's chief advisor on a number of issues, including the Caucasus.

This has led to speculation about attempted coups, rogue units in the Chechen special forces, a Kadyrov power-grab, an anti-Kadyrov campaign, etc, etc.

Kadyrov has affirmed his loyalty to Putin via Instagram but fueled the speculation by saying that the loyalty was independent of whether he was president.

It may well all be blown up out of proportion but the failure to manage the sense that something strange is happening is telling in itself."

― Rainbow DAESH (ShariVari), lunes 16 de marzo de 2015 7:26

So any idea what all that was about? Seems too odd for it to have been nothing.

To be honest, not really. A lot of the speculation was overstated apparently - Sobchak never left, Surkov turned up two days later, etc.

The underlying theme of tension between Kadyrov and the FSB seems to have more weight to it, though, and there doesn't seem to be any explanation for Putin's vanishing act. There have been a lot of articles about Kadyrov pushing for a wider national role and issues with his militia being active outside of Chechnya (both overtly in Ukraine and covertly with targeted assassinations) but most of it has been from the Western press a lot is quite contradictory.

thought this was interesting, on battery farming/crowdsourcing propaganda:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house

Yep, Shaun Walker has been doing some good stuff lately.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/face-the-coming-war-between-armenia-azerbaijan-12585

This seems to be kicking off again. Idk whether all-out war is likely.

http://i.imgur.com/dhXBbCD.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/eHpDA0V.jpg

^ senior delegation from the Armenian-American community meeting the PM in Yerevan for crisis talks.

Kim was certainly learning a lot on her day sight-seeing in Armenia's second largest city.

Indeed the 34-year-old looked genuinely moved, not to mention a little overwhelmed, as she later visited the overgrown ruins of her modest ancestral family home.

With rusted sheet metal walls, no roof, and piles of rubble and debris littering the site, the long neglected location was surely a stark reality check for the pampered reality star.

As a way to boost awareness of the Armenian genocide for its 100th anniversary this seems slightly more dignified and effective than i would have expected on paper.

Good article from the pro-Ukraine, pro-free-speech Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group on the astonishing new laws being put through the Rada:

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1428632777

They appear to not just give full legal status to the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army (who massacred Poles and Jewish Ukrainians) but will ban questioning their legitimacy as a 'denigration of the dignity of the Ukrainian people'.As things stand, the Wiesenthal centre, for example, would fall foul of this.

At the same time, communist symbols / propaganda and the denial of the 'criminal nature' of the 1917 - 1991 regime have been prohibited.

The package of bills was presented in parliament and largely drawn up by the head of the Institute for National Remembrance Volodymyr Viatrovych. The latter was head of the SBU [Security Service] archives under Yushchenko and became widely known for his strong support for nationalist leaders Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, and OUN-UPA. His works as a historian, for example, his attempts to present the Volyn Massacre “in a wider context” as part of an alleged Polish-Ukrainian war from 1942-1947 have prompted criticism, both from historians and from the wider public. Concern has often been expressed, including by the author of these words, over historical manipulation of facts or downright inaccuracies.

Poland has similar(ish) laws on the books but a much less divisive context. Aside from whether they are right or wrong, it's difficult to see this as anything other than another potentially destabilising move and a boost to the Russian propaganda machine selling the Ukrainian government as far-right ethno-nationalists.

Will read that, but not before expressly wishing that SOAD had been there with Kim et al

Anyway, good article. I especially like how it loses its composure when speaking with no little implication of 'other totally fascist ideologies'. That first law seems utterly bonkers and creepy as fuck.