epic outlier seasons

Matt Nokes, 1987:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nokesma01.shtml

Like Dietz, the milder end of the outlier spectrum. Both had about a third of their career WAR in the one season--maybe that's about where outliers begin. (Another similarity: 1970 and 1987 were the two most prominent fluke hitter years in my lifetime. Hitters dominated, but both years are surrounded by neutral or pitcher-dominated years.)

(By way of contrast, almost half of Wilkins' career WAR comes in '93; that's a truer outlier than Dietz or Nokes.)

Aren't there a lot rookies who have good-great first years and then bupkis. Ben Grieve springs to mind.

You can't just use percentage-of-career-WAR as a qualifier, or at least not set the bar at 33%; if you do, Brady Anderson's '96 doesn't qualify as an outlier, even if you limit WAR to offense only. (He's just under 20% of his career offensive WAR in '96.) I think you'd need a combination: percentage of career WAR, and also a ratio of the outlier year compared to second-best year. Anderson doesn't qualify because he had a bunch of pretty good years, and one other season better than that. You'd need a combination of the two that somehow lets Brady Anderson's '96 in.

(xpost) I think that's true, but Grieve might not fit--his first three years are all pretty close (with adjustments, his first was a bit better). Never did much after that, though.

Steve Finley magically transformed from an 8-HR-a-year guy to a slugger at age 31.

Bobby Shantz's MVP year in 1952.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shantbo01.shtml

Never realized the 1950 Whiz Kid Phillies included a relief pitcher MVP in Jim Konstanty.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/konstji01.shtml

He gets a chapter in the first baseball book I read as a kid, so I learned about him before three-quarters of the people in the HOF.

https://img0.etsystatic.com/038/0/8035771/il_570xN.636016346_2pwo.jpg

He wasn't the worst choice ever, but, just among Phillies pitchers that year, Robin Roberts would have obviously been much better.

Always thought Cito Gaston had more good years, but maybe not so much. 5.1 bWAR in 1970, but ended up with a negative for his career.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gastoci01.shtml

As I've posted before (but seemingly not on this thread), 1970 is the mother of all outlier seasons.

Jim Gentile 1961. 141 RBI tied for lead league the year Maris broke the record.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gentiji01.shtml

Brady Anderson turns 55 today. With that in mind - when you think of one player in any sport having one season where they are mind-blowingly better than in any other year of their career - who do you think of and what year

— Nick Shepkowski (@Shep670) January 18, 2019

Another 1970 one, Tommy Harper:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpeto01.shtml

It's not epic, and it's not a season, but this seems as appropriate a place as anywhere--Brian Harper's few years catching for the Twins in the late-'80s/early-'90s. (His picture popped up today in that little photo gallery to the left of the Baseball Reference page.) From '79 to '87, he plays for five teams, plays all over the diamond, and basically does nothing. Then he has five-and-a-half really solid seasons with the Twins, hitting .294-.325 every year, with OBPs around .350 and slugging averages in the low-mid .400s (except for his last year there, very much a pitcher's era), and has a fantastic Series when the Twins win everything in '91. Then he leaves in '94, gets 300 more AB elsewhere the next two years, then he retires.

Dug up this:

http://www.banishedtothepen.com/brian-harper-a-baseball-life/

Jesus Aguilar is looking like a potential inner circle outlier season guy

see also his former teammate, gio urshela

rick porcello's 2016

a whole bunch of guys you forgot about the moment they retired

Similar Pitchers

Shane Reynolds (948.7)
Charles Nagy (948.0)
Brad Penny (945.6)
Matt Morris (939.6)
Jon Lieber (938.0)
Denny Neagle (931.9)
Pat Hentgen (931.0)
John Smiley (928.9)
Josh Beckett (927.4)
Yovani Gallardo (923.9)

Epic outlier in reverse: Wade Boggs, 1992 (his last season in Boston). No recollection--what happened? The Margo Adams thing was a couple of years earlier.

mike marshall, 1974

Only in the freakish 100+ games, though--he was arguably better in '73, and definitely better in '72.

he was good for the couple years around it, but: jake arrieta's 2015. tbf it would be an epic outlier for almost anyone -- he was all but unhittable

up-thread mention rick porcello is apparently out of baseball at age 32? has to be one of the crappier pitchers to win 150 games

On a similar note, R.A. Dickey's Cy year.

Arietta was in the ESPN body issue, that was awesome

I recall sam miller calling arietta “built” on EW