healthy!
https://twitter.com/charliewiddoes/status/530475272249044992
― things lose meaning over time (Dr Morbius), Friday, 7 November 2014 13:39 (nine years ago) link
are those cookies? if so you earned em buddy, we still luh you
― ichabron crames (slothroprhymes), Friday, 7 November 2014 16:55 (nine years ago) link
Ah, Facebook...Koufax vs. Kershaw thread on a discussion group, and it's essentially me on one side(about equal during the regular season, obvious edge to Koufax in the postseason) and 20 other people who believe that it's not even close because 1) Koufax never needed to hand it over to a closer (ignoring that that's simply the way the game was structured then), 2) Kershaw's postseason troubles reveal some deep flaw within him (ignoring that we're basically talking about two bad innings), and 3) Kershaw has to do it for another four or five seasons before the question's even worth addressing (ignoring that Kershaw's great run is almost as long as Koufax's right now). Maddening.
― clemenza, Sunday, 18 January 2015 23:51 (nine years ago) link
ah, clemenza
― mookieproof, Monday, 19 January 2015 04:12 (nine years ago) link
Best FIP, Pitchers Age 21 to 26 seasons, minimum 1000 IP, 1950 - present:
Tom Seaver: 2.58Clayton Kershaw 2.61Sam McDowell 2.62Bert Blyleven 2.68Roger Clemens 2.79
so yeah, he's doing pretty well so far!
― ♪♫_\o/_♫♪ (Karl Malone), Thursday, 22 January 2015 00:20 (nine years ago) link
Of the top 30, I count 11 in the HOF; add Clemens, that would be 12. Kershaw will probably make 13 down the road (except the list will be different then). Anyway, fewer than half. I bet a comparable position player list based on WAR or OPS+ or whatever, at least two-thirds would be in or going into the Hall of Fame.
Pitchers seem to be fragile.
― clemenza, Thursday, 22 January 2015 03:45 (nine years ago) link
McDowell's stats between 1965 and and 1970 are rather nuts. Going from 8.2 FWAR to 2.7 to 7.2 again.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 24 January 2015 06:06 (nine years ago) link
Drinking man.
― clemenza, Saturday, 24 January 2015 19:16 (nine years ago) link
(Something I didn't know, if true. According to Wikipedia, "The character of Sam Malone, the alcoholic ex-Red Sox pitcher portrayed by Emmy Award winning actor Ted Danson in the television program Cheers, was based on the baseball life of McDowell.")
― clemenza, Saturday, 24 January 2015 19:18 (nine years ago) link
It's Kershaw Day at BP; there are about ten free articles to read. Zachary Levine:
Kershaw is, according to the PECOTA projections, supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball this year. This is hardly a surprise. He was the best pitcher in baseball last year. By ERA+, he’s also been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two years, the last three years, the last four years, the last five years, the last six years, the last seven years, and with enough innings to qualify, the seven-year veteran has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last eight years.
The projection is something pretty familiar for Kershaw: A 2.23 ERA, 237 strikeouts in 224 innings, a 19-9 win-loss record—numbers that would give him another Cy Young Award should he be in the running against pretty much anybody other than 2014 Kershaw. The 5.8 WARP would fit right in within 0.3 wins of each of his three best seasons and a small regression from last year’s performance.
We know, though, that this is just a single line reading of what’s really a (multidimensional) continuum of possible outcomes. Specifically, it’s the median. He’s 50-50 to be above this point in each of the metrics, and he’s 50-50 to be below.
Whereas the median projection looks downright mundane given what we’re used to from Kershaw, it was the tail—and not even the extreme tail—that stood out. Kershaw’s 90th percentile projection is almost unfathomable. The raws benefit from Dodger Stadium and for it always taking a while to adjust our eyes to the light of a new run-scoring environment, but the adjusted stats tell you it isn’t just your eyes. A 1.46 ERA, the lowest since Bob Gibson in 1968 and the second-lowest of the live-ball era. An 8.8 WARP, behind only 1999 Pedro Martinez as far as seasons in the WARP time (1950-present).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25736
― touch of a love-starved cobra (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 March 2015 16:50 (nine years ago) link
the craziest thing to me about kershaw is he came up with two pitches - a sick fastball and a hammer curve.. the curve had so much movement sometimes the umps weren't calling it a strike, so he responds by developing a slider that has become one of the best in the game.. if he can perfect his change that he only throws like 5 times a game he can stretch his career out forever.
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 9 March 2015 20:15 (nine years ago) link
Very comparable to Seaver through 1971 (his greatest all-around year, though not as famous as '69)--one inning apart, for starters:
Seaver: 95-54, 1379.1 IP, 7.1 H/9, 1.045 WHIP, 3.28 K/BB, 2.34 ERA, 149 ERA+, 35.9 WAR
Kershaw: 98-49, 1378.1 IP, 6.8 H/9, 1.059 WHIP, 3.41 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 151 ERA+, 39.7 WAR
Both in pitcher-friendly parks (Dodger Stadium more so, I think), both in pitcher-friendly eras (Seaver's definitely more so, although 1970 was a big hitter's year), both 26.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 01:43 (nine years ago) link
I got wanting to look at some video to try to compare Steve Carlton and Clayton Kershaw's pitching. Haven't found a comparible Kershaw montage, but man check out the movement on some of Lefty's pitches in this video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iHFkgs1zx8
― earlnash, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 02:49 (nine years ago) link
liner off the face; just a little dental work.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/12530522/clayton-kershaw-los-angeles-dodgers-gets-extra-dental-work-being-hit-face-line-drive
― the increasing costive borborygmi (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 21 March 2015 17:31 (nine years ago) link
James had a long piece a few months ago about ranking starting pitchers; his site now ranks all the current starters and updates the rankings daily. Kershaw started the year with a sizeable lead, but Scherzer and/or Felix may pass him within a start or two. (Not saying I agree with this--I'm inclined to question any system that has R.A. Dickey in the Top 20.)
http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 18:13 (eight years ago) link
It's based on game scores, and it's all explained here:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 18:16 (eight years ago) link
that's interesting, i'll have to check in on it occasionally. as you'd expect, it incorporates a lot of past performance into the score, so strasburg is still top 25 even though he's been awful so far this season, and wainwright is at 12 even though he's already been out for a while and won't be back til next year.
― Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 May 2015 19:06 (eight years ago) link
Yeah, it's very much a rolling thing that goes back three, maybe four seasons (and includes postseason, hence Bumgarner up near the top). I like this:
When a pitcher is a candidate for the Hall of Fame, the fact that he was the #1 ranked pitcher in the world for two years is going to be a major credential that his supporters can point to--or, vice versa, if the pitcher was never #1, it’s a major hole in his resume.
If you tracked this through the '80s, I bet Morris only made it into the top half-dozen for one or two short stretches (and was never close to #1).
― clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 19:16 (eight years ago) link
yeah for me you had to have been one of the best 5 players in the league for at least a few seasons to be a hall of famer. i use the same argument with the NBA HOF, which is much more of a "big hall" than baseball's. i prefer the small hall tbh
― k3vin k., Saturday, 23 May 2015 21:22 (eight years ago) link
Awesome last night. I didn't know what to make of his slow start--most of his peripherals were still good, but we've seen (admittedly older: Verlander, Sabathia) some pitchers suddenly go south recently, so I wasn't sure if there was something going on there.
― clemenza, Sunday, 7 June 2015 15:16 (eight years ago) link
Scherzer just edged ahead of Kershaw for the #1 spot in James's rankings.
― clemenza, Sunday, 5 July 2015 17:37 (eight years ago) link
Kershaw's been bumped one more night, but when he faces Trout tomorrow, it will evidently be the first reigning-MVP-to-reigning-MVP regular-season match-up ever.
― clemenza, Friday, 31 July 2015 23:40 (eight years ago) link
(According to Facebook according to Reddit according to whoever they got it from. But it sounds reasonable.)
― clemenza, Friday, 31 July 2015 23:41 (eight years ago) link
Eight more scoreless innings for Kershaw, his scoreless streak is up to 37 innings.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 1 August 2015 23:10 (eight years ago) link
He's on pace for 300 K this year too.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 1 August 2015 23:11 (eight years ago) link
First Kershaw-Trout AB yesterday:
http://m.mlb.com/video/v320177383/laalad-kershaw-strikes-out-trout-looking-in-the-1st/?game_pk=415196
― clemenza, Sunday, 2 August 2015 13:57 (eight years ago) link
(xpost) Didn't realize how long its been since someone did this: Randy Johnson in 2002. As strikeouts go up and up, find that odd. The five-man rotation and rote use of bullpen was all in place 15 years ago, no?
― clemenza, Tuesday, 4 August 2015 19:06 (eight years ago) link
have to think # of IP by starters per game has decreased since then
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 4 August 2015 20:10 (eight years ago) link
Trout and Harper are historic, but Kershaw is clearly the most dominant player in baseball right now. I assume they know what they're doing with the 132 pitches.
― clemenza, Thursday, 3 September 2015 12:38 (eight years ago) link
doyers called up bolsinger, which leads me to believe they're gonna six-man the rotation to lighten his load
― slothroprhymes, Thursday, 3 September 2015 13:24 (eight years ago) link
not quite as dominant as Dallas Keuchel, really.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 3 September 2015 14:18 (eight years ago) link
Keuchel or not, he is building a case for a 4th cy young
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 3 September 2015 17:45 (eight years ago) link
seager called up too btw
― polyphonic, Thursday, 3 September 2015 17:49 (eight years ago) link
unless you are giving enormous weight to Ks, Kershaw is probably not the best pitcher on his team this year.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 3 September 2015 18:21 (eight years ago) link
Kershaw has the lead in Fangraphs WAR
― polyphonic, Thursday, 3 September 2015 18:49 (eight years ago) link
& counterpoint, greinke does on baseball-ref
― johnny crunch, Thursday, 3 September 2015 18:51 (eight years ago) link
WARP computed using DRA, Greinke by 6.70-6.49
(BP)
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 3 September 2015 18:54 (eight years ago) link
'building a case' doesn't mean 'automatic winner', but yeah, I do give importance to xFIP.
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 3 September 2015 19:14 (eight years ago) link
what is DRA?
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 3 September 2015 19:16 (eight years ago) link
I like James's rankings, which take a longer view than four or five months (the logic that every year puts a couple of guys into the All-Star Game on the basis of a fast start and little else).
The gap between Kershaw (#1) and Greinke (#2) there is as large as the gap between Greinke and Cueto at #9. I think the Top 6 are exactly right. (Bumgarner gets credit for what he did in the postseason; ignore that, and he probably drops out.)
― clemenza, Friday, 4 September 2015 15:38 (eight years ago) link
xp deserved run average, here's the BP explanation http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26195
― slothroprhymes, Friday, 4 September 2015 15:41 (eight years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CO9jMi2UsAEMjmi.png:large
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 15 September 2015 18:08 (eight years ago) link
http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-20150915-story.html
Definitely a Cy argument for Kershaw--a strong one--but unless he has a couple of bad starts, Greinke will win. Which is fine.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 15 September 2015 19:14 (eight years ago) link
300 K
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 4 October 2015 21:28 (eight years ago) link
@based_ballClayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final2013: .5212014: .5212015: .521
Clayton Kershaw, OPS allowed, final
2013: .5212014: .5212015: .521
― Andy K, Monday, 5 October 2015 18:15 (eight years ago) link
Totally missed his first start. Not too shabby, says Adam Sandler.
― clemenza, Thursday, 7 April 2016 00:19 (eight years ago) link
95 Game Score today--and knocked in the only run.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 May 2016 23:42 (eight years ago) link
Missed that last start of his...Has a 19.25 K/BB ratio (77/4); the record's 11-something. Basically takes one lousy start to cut that in half, though.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 May 2016 15:33 (seven years ago) link
Basically he is having last season without the (relatively) first two months.
Newest member to the 50 fWAR club.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 14 May 2016 17:08 (seven years ago) link
Seaver was as 51.7 at the end of his age-28 season, Pedro 52.0, Clemens 54.2. So he should stay ahead of those guys for another season, although keeping up with Clemens at the other end will be near-impossible.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 May 2016 17:51 (seven years ago) link