Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
Not all messages are displayed: show all messages (291 of them)

on his triple he looked like a horse galloping out of a burning barn

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 September 2014 04:09 (five years ago) link

We all know W-L records can be misleading, but when people quote run support, do they account for the fact that that can be misleading too? Nine runs were scored for Kershaw while he was the pitcher of record last night, so his average run support will be adjusted accordingly. What that doesn't tell you is that a) seven of those runs were superfluous, and b) the game was still 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 12:12 (five years ago) link

SweetSpot's David Schoenfield, who I think is very good and fairly mainstream: "Let's not make the MVP debate more complicated than it needs to be: Clayton Kershaw is the best, and most valuable, player in the National League. There shouldn't really need to be a debate."

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 19:38 (five years ago) link

I wouldn't go that far--there's a debate there; LuCroy's been great, Stanton was right there until the injury (perhaps leading), there's McCutchen and Rendon--but I do agree with the middle part of that quote.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 19:42 (five years ago) link

McCutchen will def be the focus of the "not enough innings" crowd now, but meh who cares

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 September 2014 19:47 (five years ago) link

In those narrative factors ILB hates--that was the first word I learned on ILB: "narrative"--I'd say McCutchen benefits from the admirable-superstar factor, and is hurt by the won-one-already factor. So a wash.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:12 (five years ago) link

unless he gets 3 hits a day in the remaining games and the Bucs win the Central

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:23 (five years ago) link

i think it's mostly kershaw vs giancarlo now, tho both seem way too unconventional to be frontrunners

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:26 (five years ago) link

what's unconventional about Stanton?

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:43 (five years ago) link

Stanton is almost a too-trad candidate, but i think the writers don't want to be perceived as giving him any sort of pity vote, and at 24 they think he can improve on 37hr 105rbi when he's with the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers.

now can we bail on awards and anticipate Kershaw's LDS start?

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:53 (five years ago) link

as it stands it'll probably be Kershaw vs Wainwright.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:56 (five years ago) link

Um...he'll pitch well? There's so much more room to wander around when it comes to award talk.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 21:56 (five years ago) link

By the way, if McCutchen did come up with 12 more hits--he's the only guy left who's candidacy isn't frozen--and the Pirates caught the Cards, I think you'd have a very close vote, and I'm not sure who'd win.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:00 (five years ago) link

stanton is super-unconventional. incomplete season on a losing team. after the trout/cabrera war of 2012 in which the losing team argument was used 50 million times, passionately, you'd think they wouldn't just let a guy slip in unless it's a season for the ages. he's missing less time than kershaw but missing it at the end is a lot more noticeable than missing it at the beginning.

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:04 (five years ago) link

er, 2012 wasn't a losing team argument but literally a losing out on the playoffs argument, jfc

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:05 (five years ago) link

I really don't get the playoff contention argument yeah. Also, Stanton missed (almost) as many games as McCutchen and Rendon, Lucroy is a catcher, and when it comes to WAR they all had similar numbers. What an odd season in that regard.

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:10 (five years ago) link

yeah, i thought stanton missed more than he had.

but if they aren't willing to vote for mike trout's amazing 2012 because the angels had only 89 wins, it'd be a bit surprising if stanton got in with a less impressive year on a team that didn't even get to .500. it's silly. of course the playoffs thing was mostly just an excuse in 2012 but still. i've already heard the argument that stanton deserves it because the marlins were "closer to contending than anyone thought" which, rmde. poor, poor trout, my heart weeps for thee etc

kershaw had a season for the ages but it seems equally unconventional voting for a pitcher who missed 6 starts. maybe the most unconventional win since eck? still rooting for him but it wouldn't surprise me if cutch sneaks in for tradition's sake.

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:20 (five years ago) link

btw kershaw has 0.4/0.5 batting fWAR/rWAR which everyone always forgets about

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:22 (five years ago) link

watching a video of Bumgarner two grand slams*

wait was that you said?

Van Horn Street, Thursday, 25 September 2014 22:28 (five years ago) link

He has a 3.72 ERA in 17 starts vs people wearing Cardinal laundry

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 3 October 2014 15:05 (five years ago) link

First time ever a guy's given up seven runs in back-to-back post-season starts. He has out-Joaquined Joaquin.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/52236/that-happened-eight-runs-off-kershaw

clemenza, Saturday, 4 October 2014 18:15 (five years ago) link

Talk about a faulty memory; I knew Andujar didn't start game 7 of the '85 Series, but amazingly, he only pitched to two batters:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA198510270.shtml

I think many people, like me, associate that meltdown with Andujar. I guess what we're remembering is the way he flipped out.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 October 2014 18:55 (five years ago) link

Russell Carleton: The Cardinals Do Not Own Clayton Kershaw

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24798

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 6 October 2014 12:07 (five years ago) link

IIRC, in G6 of the NLCS last year there were a lot of soft hits and balls that fell just in front of the outfielders. The comeback on Friday wasn't luck -- he made bad pitches and the Cards were ringing line drives all over the place.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 6 October 2014 15:27 (five years ago) link

wouldn't argue with that, but it was, as they say, just one start.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 6 October 2014 15:35 (five years ago) link

one month passes...

are those cookies? if so you earned em buddy, we still luh you

ichabron crames (slothroprhymes), Friday, 7 November 2014 16:55 (four years ago) link

two months pass...

Ah, Facebook...Koufax vs. Kershaw thread on a discussion group, and it's essentially me on one side(about equal during the regular season, obvious edge to Koufax in the postseason) and 20 other people who believe that it's not even close because 1) Koufax never needed to hand it over to a closer (ignoring that that's simply the way the game was structured then), 2) Kershaw's postseason troubles reveal some deep flaw within him (ignoring that we're basically talking about two bad innings), and 3) Kershaw has to do it for another four or five seasons before the question's even worth addressing (ignoring that Kershaw's great run is almost as long as Koufax's right now). Maddening.

clemenza, Sunday, 18 January 2015 23:51 (four years ago) link

ah, clemenza

mookieproof, Monday, 19 January 2015 04:12 (four years ago) link

Best FIP, Pitchers Age 21 to 26 seasons, minimum 1000 IP, 1950 - present:

Tom Seaver: 2.58
Clayton Kershaw 2.61
Sam McDowell 2.62
Bert Blyleven 2.68
Roger Clemens 2.79

so yeah, he's doing pretty well so far!

♪♫_\o/_♫♪ (Karl Malone), Thursday, 22 January 2015 00:20 (four years ago) link

Of the top 30, I count 11 in the HOF; add Clemens, that would be 12. Kershaw will probably make 13 down the road (except the list will be different then). Anyway, fewer than half. I bet a comparable position player list based on WAR or OPS+ or whatever, at least two-thirds would be in or going into the Hall of Fame.

Pitchers seem to be fragile.

clemenza, Thursday, 22 January 2015 03:45 (four years ago) link

McDowell's stats between 1965 and and 1970 are rather nuts. Going from 8.2 FWAR to 2.7 to 7.2 again.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 24 January 2015 06:06 (four years ago) link

Drinking man.

clemenza, Saturday, 24 January 2015 19:16 (four years ago) link

(Something I didn't know, if true. According to Wikipedia, "The character of Sam Malone, the alcoholic ex-Red Sox pitcher portrayed by Emmy Award winning actor Ted Danson in the television program Cheers, was based on the baseball life of McDowell.")

clemenza, Saturday, 24 January 2015 19:18 (four years ago) link

one month passes...

It's Kershaw Day at BP; there are about ten free articles to read. Zachary Levine:

Kershaw is, according to the PECOTA projections, supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball this year. This is hardly a surprise. He was the best pitcher in baseball last year. By ERA+, he’s also been the best pitcher in baseball over the last two years, the last three years, the last four years, the last five years, the last six years, the last seven years, and with enough innings to qualify, the seven-year veteran has been the best pitcher in baseball over the last eight years.

The projection is something pretty familiar for Kershaw: A 2.23 ERA, 237 strikeouts in 224 innings, a 19-9 win-loss record—numbers that would give him another Cy Young Award should he be in the running against pretty much anybody other than 2014 Kershaw. The 5.8 WARP would fit right in within 0.3 wins of each of his three best seasons and a small regression from last year’s performance.

We know, though, that this is just a single line reading of what’s really a (multidimensional) continuum of possible outcomes. Specifically, it’s the median. He’s 50-50 to be above this point in each of the metrics, and he’s 50-50 to be below.

Whereas the median projection looks downright mundane given what we’re used to from Kershaw, it was the tail—and not even the extreme tail—that stood out. Kershaw’s 90th percentile projection is almost unfathomable. The raws benefit from Dodger Stadium and for it always taking a while to adjust our eyes to the light of a new run-scoring environment, but the adjusted stats tell you it isn’t just your eyes. A 1.46 ERA, the lowest since Bob Gibson in 1968 and the second-lowest of the live-ball era. An 8.8 WARP, behind only 1999 Pedro Martinez as far as seasons in the WARP time (1950-present).

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25736

touch of a love-starved cobra (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 March 2015 16:50 (four years ago) link

the craziest thing to me about kershaw is he came up with two pitches - a sick fastball and a hammer curve.. the curve had so much movement sometimes the umps weren't calling it a strike, so he responds by developing a slider that has become one of the best in the game.. if he can perfect his change that he only throws like 5 times a game he can stretch his career out forever.

panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 9 March 2015 20:15 (four years ago) link

Very comparable to Seaver through 1971 (his greatest all-around year, though not as famous as '69)--one inning apart, for starters:

Seaver: 95-54, 1379.1 IP, 7.1 H/9, 1.045 WHIP, 3.28 K/BB, 2.34 ERA, 149 ERA+, 35.9 WAR

Kershaw: 98-49, 1378.1 IP, 6.8 H/9, 1.059 WHIP, 3.41 K/BB, 2.48 ERA, 151 ERA+, 39.7 WAR

Both in pitcher-friendly parks (Dodger Stadium more so, I think), both in pitcher-friendly eras (Seaver's definitely more so, although 1970 was a big hitter's year), both 26.

clemenza, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 01:43 (four years ago) link

I got wanting to look at some video to try to compare Steve Carlton and Clayton Kershaw's pitching. Haven't found a comparible Kershaw montage, but man check out the movement on some of Lefty's pitches in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iHFkgs1zx8

earlnash, Tuesday, 10 March 2015 02:49 (four years ago) link

two months pass...

James had a long piece a few months ago about ranking starting pitchers; his site now ranks all the current starters and updates the rankings daily. Kershaw started the year with a sizeable lead, but Scherzer and/or Felix may pass him within a start or two. (Not saying I agree with this--I'm inclined to question any system that has R.A. Dickey in the Top 20.)

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 18:13 (four years ago) link

It's based on game scores, and it's all explained here:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_worlds_1_starting_pitcher/

clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 18:16 (four years ago) link

that's interesting, i'll have to check in on it occasionally. as you'd expect, it incorporates a lot of past performance into the score, so strasburg is still top 25 even though he's been awful so far this season, and wainwright is at 12 even though he's already been out for a while and won't be back til next year.

Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 May 2015 19:06 (four years ago) link

Yeah, it's very much a rolling thing that goes back three, maybe four seasons (and includes postseason, hence Bumgarner up near the top). I like this:

When a pitcher is a candidate for the Hall of Fame, the fact that he was the #1 ranked pitcher in the world for two years is going to be a major credential that his supporters can point to--or, vice versa, if the pitcher was never #1, it’s a major hole in his resume.

If you tracked this through the '80s, I bet Morris only made it into the top half-dozen for one or two short stretches (and was never close to #1).

clemenza, Saturday, 23 May 2015 19:16 (four years ago) link

yeah for me you had to have been one of the best 5 players in the league for at least a few seasons to be a hall of famer. i use the same argument with the NBA HOF, which is much more of a "big hall" than baseball's. i prefer the small hall tbh

k3vin k., Saturday, 23 May 2015 21:22 (four years ago) link

two weeks pass...

Awesome last night. I didn't know what to make of his slow start--most of his peripherals were still good, but we've seen (admittedly older: Verlander, Sabathia) some pitchers suddenly go south recently, so I wasn't sure if there was something going on there.

clemenza, Sunday, 7 June 2015 15:16 (four years ago) link

four weeks pass...

Scherzer just edged ahead of Kershaw for the #1 spot in James's rankings.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/polls_ratings/starting_pitcher_rankings/

clemenza, Sunday, 5 July 2015 17:37 (four years ago) link

three weeks pass...

Kershaw's been bumped one more night, but when he faces Trout tomorrow, it will evidently be the first reigning-MVP-to-reigning-MVP regular-season match-up ever.

clemenza, Friday, 31 July 2015 23:40 (four years ago) link

(According to Facebook according to Reddit according to whoever they got it from. But it sounds reasonable.)

clemenza, Friday, 31 July 2015 23:41 (four years ago) link

Eight more scoreless innings for Kershaw, his scoreless streak is up to 37 innings.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 1 August 2015 23:10 (four years ago) link

He's on pace for 300 K this year too.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 1 August 2015 23:11 (four years ago) link


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.