the scottish independence referendum

i should've known to go w/ the week

If I was confident Scotland could emulate the better Scandinavian countries I would vote yes easily.

This is my big problem with the ideological argument here. We aren't going to turn into a socialist utopia overnight. I would love it if we did. But come the 19th September we're still going to have bigotry and class distinction and all the other problems. This is a country where at the most recent opportunity we got ourselves a UKIP representative despite their minimal presence above the border. I'm seeing people in their teens and early twenties who didn't grow up knowing who Thatcher was (and so don't have that Tory-hate that seems ingrained in the national psyche), so when people say "Vote No Get Tory" I don't really think it's a valid argument - the values could easily sneak in by another name.

I am still undecided. I think better democracy could come from more localised, closer representation but there's still the problems of far too many politicians in Scotland coming from backgrounds of comparative affluence and privilege. The SNP will break up once the common goal is achieved and it's hard to predict what will happen then. Probably veering towards yes but there's just as many unanswered questions and unignorable issues on both sides.

the counterfactual seems to be the lost dream where scotland gots its independence before the uk turned to monetarism and before the better part of north sea oil revenues were accounted for, in which free scotland acquired a norway sized sovereign wealth fund and applied to a dirigist program of national re-education directed at its internal class/sectarian/regional factions in order to unify as free scotland under the scottish freedom krona

The option of more devolution hasn't been discussed widely enough.

"devo max"?

I'm pretty much in the dark about how tourism will be changed or the lives of people who regularly travel between Scotland and any other part of UK.
I don't know how important tourism is to the economy but I imagine that Scotland is only visited by a lot of people who are prioritizing a trip to England. Would it be more hassle to go to an independent Scotland for these people?

Will we still be using co.uk sites? Will we have the BBC?

I don't really know what maximum devolution would do either.

I heard our internet might be slower but I hope that was a sick joke.

want Scotland to vote yes because a) hilarity and b) everybody in favour of "No" is a cunt

tragically not going to happen tho, clearly

I just have to ask: Which are the 'better' Scandinavian countries, and which ones aren't?

i'm not sure that's true. it's an increasingly real possibility. i've done a 180 on this in the past year and am now firmly in the yes camp. the only movements i have seen are towards a yes vote - virtually no one seems to be running the other way. I have regrets about it but basically - cameron + osborne + even worse on the horizon (ik,r?) = fuck this shit. scotland is really not like the bulk of the uk, socially.

i'm voting yes and i truly believe there will be a yes outcome.

the whole scotland = scandi thing is ridiculous though.

y

best thing i've read endorsing the yes vote: http://www.radicalphilosophy.com/commentary/yes

I'm Scottish/Y. Not voting because I don't live there anymore. Nothing would make me prouder than YES winning this thing. My reasons are political - Scotland has never felt like it is controlled by the Scots, who have generally voted overwhelmingly against whichever government sits at Westminster. All the multitude of shit stuff about Scotland seems out of our control. Being independent would mean taking responsibility for all that.

i suppose it's a cynical thought but it seems to be true that the yes voters/those for change are significantly more likely to actually vote than those who simply want to retain the status quo.

i think this really could swing it.

although, thankfully, it looks like this will be the most highly attended vote in uk history.

quebec came within like one point of seceding from canada a while ago, wouldve been wild

some of my neighbours seemingly still havent taken down the posters from then, there is still "non" graffiti (federalist) on the side of a building on my street.

all I can say is this stuff never goes away so I hope, whatever the outcome, it stays calm and people are able to reconcile themselves to the outcome.

american/y/very uninformed, but rly just in favor of the ongoing dismantling of English empire

Merdeyeux- thanks for that article, I think I'm swaying closer to undecided now.

that article is good on the left or at least non-nationalist case for secession

though it would be too optimistic to wish for england too lose its manifest destiny apologists and the constituency that thinks a 70 thousand tonne aircraft carrier is just the ticket in 2014, it would surely help to have their wings clipped

i can certainly understand the appeal but the yes campaign, like quebec before it, seems to be predicated on the wish that all the things people *like* will continue undisturbed, which isn't true

(not that a complete shakeup of the existing order lacks a draw, of course)

(no idea what exactly an independent scotland's claim on north sea oil money would be, but first nations ppl in northern quebec have their own idea about where hydro-quebec revenues should flow)

and you can peg your currency to the pound or the euro or the dollar, but that's a pretty half-assed sovereignty, and one with much less input than scotland currently has in the uk

sovereignty in the era of the EU and the globalized economy is maybe something different than it once was. the 'No' campaign has consistently sought to portray independence as impossible, which is a straight lie imo.

if some quirk of fate led to a vote for the city of Hull to secede from the Father of Imperialism i wd still vote Yes btw

If there is a Yes will people in Eng be condemmed to a lifetime of Tories?

I know a "does it matter?" could be the ans to this.

There have only been three elections since 1945 where the result in Scotland changed the government in Westminster at the general election. Twice it helped return Labour governments with tiny majorities rather than the hung parliament the result elsewhere would have meant (64, 74b). In 2010 it meant a hung parliament rather than a tiny Conservative minority.

if i could vote i wouldn't because i would rather leave it to ppl who really care either way. i guess if compelled i would vote no, i do think the uk is marginally more than the sum of its parts. i don't see independence making much of a material change in the average scottish person's existence. the economic argument in favour of union seems more compelling. clearly things material or economic are not really the driving force anyway and you can't argue with ~feelings~.

i don't know the extent to which this is being talked about, but interesting subthemes for me are, the uk after scotland, which is suddenly v awkward, and along similar lines, i can't imagine your norn irish are super pleased by the prospect of scotland fucking off.

It's dawned on me that everyone I know in Scotland is voting yes... apart from my mum, who isn't voting... and one friend who seems to be voting no out of sheer contrariness. Britain in 2014 is a morally bankrupt shithole, so I can understand voting yes, though nationalism makes me queasy and Scottish nationalism queasier still.

One friend of mine, who I would never in a million years have described as a nationalist, just posted this on Facebook, that's the sort of thing that seems to be driving the people I know to vote yes... they'll still lose though.

Most people I speak to are voting yes. I still think the NOs form a silent majority.

be interesting to know what percentage of people outside of Scotland are sick of the UK as a political entity too

Be interesting to know what percentage of people outside of Scotland are sick of Scotland. I get the feeling a large chunk of the south would happily cut us loose.

yeah but fuck them

the independence odds now down to ~5/2

Most recent data I saw had 53%/47% not including undecided and with the tide moving towards "Yes" so I think those are still good odds if you fancy a flutter.

the bookmakers are probably considering that uncertainty or fear of the unknown will result in slightly fewer votes for independence than the current polling suggests

tend to imagine it will be a narrow vote against independence and then a quick push from across the political spectrum for some version of 'devolution max' to suture everything back together again in a ramshackle way

The poll I was talking about had 10% undecided so maybe that's where the swing is? I don't really see many of the 53% yeses changing their mind.

xpost what you're saying may ring true but these kind of statements reflect the overall deep, deep denial from the government & media that this is as likely to go to the yeses as the noes.

The poll I was talking about had 10% undecided so maybe that's where the swing is? I don't really see many of the 53% yeses changing their mind.

― everything, Tuesday, 2 September 2014 21:11 (6 minutes ago)

the margins dont require 'many' and changing their mind doesnt mean voting against, rather just not voting

i personally know two people who have jumped the fence from NO to YES in the last week alone and several more undecided who have gone YES . i think and hope that this is within our grasp.

denial from the government & media that this is as likely to go to the yeses as the noes.

― everything, Tuesday, 2 September 2014 21:15 (2 minutes ago)

that denial would not extend to bookmakers who could have fairly significant liabilities on this market

no reason to suggest the government are unaware that there is a significant chance of a vote for independence, however naive their public statements seem

Well, there doesn't seem to be any plan for what happens if Yes wins.

government contingency plans are more likely to be circulated among ministers that distributed to journalists in pdf

i wonder why the UK government and the No campaign in general might want to create the impression that a Yes vote will lead to unplanned chaos

it's almost as if the No campaign has continually tried to create the dishonest impression that Scotland wd be cut loose overnight after a Yes vote

/than/ distributed

the uk government is generally supposed to have the most extensive contingency planning for climate change among the major nations, why would it be so unprepared for independence of scotland

they probably miscalculated the likelihood of a vote for independence a few years ago but fairly safe to assume they have planned extensively for that anyway

which isn't to suggest those plans will be effective

be interesting to know what percentage of people outside of Scotland are sick of the UK as a political entity too

― Daphnis Celesta

well I mean if yer asking......

the plan for a Yes vote is to build a wall from carlisle to newcastle

i wonder why the UK government and the No campaign in general might want to create the impression that a Yes vote will lead to unplanned chaos

― Daphnis Celesta, Tuesday, 2 September 2014 21:32 (3 minutes ago)

there is this, and then there is the snp's suggestion that the current uk government are completely unprepared naifs, which is sentimentally appealling and helps to embolden the wavering

the contingency planning will involve all sorts of devious sub rosa manipulations, bribes and blackmails to secure faslane at all costs so no surprise cameron doesn't want to talk about them

Most likely trade is that it's for currency union.

Well, there doesn't seem to be any plan for what happens if Yes wins.

― everything, Tuesday, 2 September 2014 20:28

Applies to both sides of the argument imo.

the Scottish Government is currently taking control over the administration of the benefits system and has made a deliberate and real committment to treating claimants better than DWP. If the roll-out is a success it's going to have a huge impact. Plus, Brexit.

the flipside is that, you only need to spend a day in Sturgeon's own constituency to see the kind of thing that turns voters off - poor housing, fly-tipping and litter, rampant effects of drug use. I live here and I like it, but when you've had to call the council to put down traps for rats in the communal bin area shared by six tenenment blocks, you do have to ask if things are going as well as they possibly could.

going to be interesting to see

* are the tories going to try to declare it illegitimate? surely this couldn't be another catalonia, but then what?
* what kind of remain campaign can be mounted if the vote isn't supported by national parties?
* will there just be a spoiler boycott in order to undermine legitimacy?

My timeline already full of "just go away, we're subsidising you ungrateful and we don't want you" guys, who all seem to have changed their tune from the unionist tune they were all dancing to in 2014 insisting we had to stay for, um, reasons.

I think for it to be successful it has to be made very clear to idiots like, say, my mum, that the SNP don't have to be the party in government of an independent Scotland. She hated Salmond and hates Sturgeon (despite all the free prescriptions and the free buses and the forthcoming free education her grandson will benefit from, to pick three examples) and even hating the Tories won't convince her to cut Scotland adrift of Westminster because boo SNP bad (c) BBC Scotland and the Scottish Daily Mail.

I'm an indy supporter but I'm really not sure if this is the right time. It doesn't feel to me like there's much demand for a second referendum right now, what with how wild everything's been over the last few years

I've seen people argue that Brexit might actually put voters off voting for Scottish independence, that all the chaos and disruption of leaving the EU will make voters worry that leaving the UK would be equally (or even more) fraught, as well as the fact that an independent Scotland would have to rejoin the EU rather than automatically remaining a member. Does this seem credible to people more in-the-know than me, or is desire to rejoin the EU/resentment of being pulled out of the EU by England the more significant factor?

I don't think Scottish (re)accession to the EU will necessarily be straightforward, given Spanish thoughts about the precedent it would set for Catalonia

whether that is something that Scottish voters will take into account ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If only Russia could be persuaded to invade Scotland.

xxxp I think that worry about the disruption of leaving the UK and wanting to join the EU probably cancel each other out. That's just a personal feeling, I don't have any data to back that up

I remember in 2014 Salmond insisting that negotiating Scotland's exit from the UK would be very straightforward, both Scotland and the rump UK would have a shared interest coming to an agreement everyone was happy with etc, which seemed implausible at the time and is even more unconvincing after Brexit.

Ironically probably a better chance of negotiation with any other government than this one

yesterday I heard the most important issue being brought up on PM: Would ppl from rump UK to be able to take their dogs with them into an independent Scotland without any nonsense like when they take them to France these days. The posh as fuck English people that take their dogs with them on holiday lobby deserve to have their say on Scotland's future as well!