It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

I like thinking about advanced metrics but am terrible at writing about them, just for the record.

Another thing that seems self-evident to me is that if there is a benefit to having strong 7+/2- starters, it's going to show up in the long relief and setup guys. When Superstarter goes 7+, the closer is at least as likely, if not more likely, to make an appearance, so he's not getting any of that rest.

True--the benefit, if it exists, would seem to go to your middle relievers.

I like something like this because it doesn't require advanced metrics at all. You just have to design the comparison in a way that makes sense, then you're working with basic measures like ERA or WHIP. WAR and Win Probability and such--the actual calculation of them--is way beyond what I can do. (Although I get the feeling WP is not difficult to calculate, just time-consuming.)

Watching the baseball game with my dad tonight, I had to teach him what a shortstop was. He knows absolutely nothing about baseball. He asked me what would be considered a good pitching performance and I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Cool story VHS.

I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Make sure to tell him you know a place where people take days debating the validity of such statements. (True of baseball fans in general.)

and it ends.

Felix, Kluber, Kluber, Felix?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-the-al-cy-young-voting-reflect-that-the-race-is-dead-even/

i knew Kluber was having a good season – but had no idea it was *that* good. where the hell did this season come from anyways?! his minor league numbers gave no real hint he was this type of pitcher.

Sorry, fellow Jays fans; tonight I root for Felix.

i'm rooting for a 1-0 10th inning J's victory.

oh. just turned on the game - J's already scored.

Chris Mosch, BP:

The rare implosion by Hernandez resulted in not only the most runs he had allowed in a single inning this season, but also the most he had surrendered in a single game all year. The eight total earned runs Hernandez gave up tied a career worst for the right-hander and his ERA jumped from a league-leading 2.07 to 2.34.

Not only did Hernandez’s worst outing of the season drop the Mariners three games behind the Royals for a wild card slot with just five remaining, it also loosened his grasp on the Cy Young Award race, which he appeared to have all but wrapped up a month ago. After last night’s start, Corey Kluber holds a 2.39-to-2.60 FIP advantage while pitching just three fewer innings. Last night’s blowup by Hernandez also narrowed the gap in ERA between the two, despite Hernandez pitching in front of a much better defense and to a superior receiver behind the dish. Cleveland’s ace will have a final chance to sway the voters Saturday night against the Rays.

If I were voting for any award that came down to two closely matched players, and one of them was having a potentially fluke year and the other had a well established level of excellence, I'd always vote for the established player. But at this point, Kluber has probably pulled away enough that I'd feel okay voting for him.

klubes has more fWAR than kershaw (by 0.1)

hughes and lester have more than felix

what a disappointing second half

ERA *really* sucks as an "authoritative" stat.

Hernandez has a chance to take the AL ERA title Sunday. A scoring decision Saturday charged Hernandez with an error in Tuesday's 10-2 loss at Toronto, a play originally called a hit. The change removed four earned runs from Hernandez's record, dropping his ERA from 2.34 to 2.18 going into his final start of the regular season. Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, who made his final scheduled start Wednesday, leads the AL at 2.17.

Watch him throw a no hitter today!

It has its limitations, like any stat. Here, I think for the opposite reason of what I'm guessing is behind your post (that it's not right that an seemingly arbitrary ERA title may get Felix the Cy Young): how that one lousy start obscured Felix's great run earlier in the year, and after being thought of as the best pitcher in the league for most of the season, his ERA crosses paths with Kluber's and now he's no longer the favourite. (I.e., if he was the best pitcher before that one start, isn't he still the best pitcher after it? It's one start.)

i really dont give a shit about the Cy Young

"like any stat"

you really just... nm

You're always saying you don't care about stuff you clearly care about, else you wouldn't post so often about them--awards and the HOF at the top of the list.

And here I thought you guys would be complaining about the "narrative" events of the past week and how they will impact the voting:

-- Felix the clear CY winner, with Kluber right behind him
-- Felix blows up against Toronto, Seattle tanks their playoff chances, Kluber dominates in his final start and is looking like the frontrunner for the award
-- Oakland continues sucking, game 162 somehow ends up mattering for Seattle, Felix gets a shot at redemption for his team and a chance to upstage Kluber again

So Felix went from pariah who choked away the CY, to ace pitcher making the most important start of his career, all in less than a week.

He was removed from the game as soon as the A's won.

Aahhh - that's what happened.

Close to a coin flip--for every point you make on one side, there's one on the other. I looked at the game logs and totaled quality starts using the same definition as Felix's streak: 7+ innings, 2 or fewer runs (earned or otherwise).

Kluber: 19/34
Felix: 22/34

Kluber wins on WAR and FIP, Felix on ERA and WHIP. Innings, they're separated by one out, K/BB and run support are also almost even. Kluber had the better September, for sure (after a poor start to start the month), and seeing as both teams were chasing a wild-card spot, I do think that matters. I'd probably vote for Felix for the reason I gave earlier: all things being close to equal, I'd rather vote for the established great player.

Runs allowed depend on too many factors, so I like to look at Game Scores to get an idea of a pitcher's dominance.

Turns out that's more or less a wash too -- Kluber has more dominant starts (GSc > 80) but also more bad ones (GSc < 50), whereas Felix was more consistently good.

is this Cy Young going to com down to fielding? because that would be awesome!

three words for you: arm wrestling contest

many cy youngs have come down to fielding bcz era is a team stat

which is why i vote for kluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubezzzzzzzzzzzzz

i would vote both Cys by FIP this year since Hamels is not in the NL top 5

4th youngest to 2000 K.

Feller, Seaver, and Clemens the others? (Or maybe Blyleven.)

Only one of the four correct.

tied with orel for 70th all-time

at 29

Ryan surely

wow

Houston - Bottom of 1st	SCORE
Felix Hernandez pitching for Seattle	SEA	HOU
Jose Altuve	Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop	0	0
Preston Tucker	Ball, Ball, Ball, Ball, Tucker walked, Altuve to second	0	0
George Springer	Ball, Ball, Springer doubled to right, Altuve scored, Tucker to third	0	1
Evan Gattis	Gattis grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Tucker and Springer scored, Gattis safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hernández	0	3
Colby Rasmus	Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Ball, Ball, Rasmus walked	0	3
Carlos Correa	Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike (looking), Correa struck out looking	0	3
Luis Valbuena	Strike (swinging), Valbuena homered to right center, Gattis and Rasmus scored	0	6
Chris Carter	Strike (looking), Strike (looking), Carter singled to left	0	6
Jason Castro	Ball, Strike (foul), Castro homered to left, Carter scored	0	8
Jose Altuve	Beimel relieved Hernández, Strike (looking), Altuve grounded out to shortstop	0	8
Preston Tucker	Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Tucker singled to center	0	8
George Springer	Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Springer struck out swinging	0	8

The hell happened.

His bad stretch this year guaranteed it wouldn't be one of his better seasons, but he was great last night, and he'll end up with one of those filling-in-the-scenery type years that adds to his bulk numbers and strengthens his HOF résumé. Also making progress towards 300 wins, which, if it ever happens, will make him the latest guy to win 300 after it was obvious there's never be another 300-game winner again.

I was surprised to see that he has 17 wins -- the second highest total of his career -- and has a good chance to win 20 for the first time. I wonder if anyone will write that Felix finally learned how to win (for a mediocre Seattle team that won't come close to making the playoffs) rather than only caring about his personal stats.

highly doubt felix will approach 300

felix is an interesting case. on one hand, he's been a poster child for the sabermetric movement almost since he broke into the league. on the other hand, a lot of his value comes from the old fashioned sense of being so durable and an innings-eater; his per-inning numbers are not really that special

For the HOF, I imagine Felix will be fine with 225-250 wins. By the time he comes up for induction (2030 or so), pitcher wins will be a quaint relic.

I think he has a decent chance, though. He'll have 143-145 at the end of his age-29 season:

Clemens -- 152
Maddux -- 150
Seaver -- 146
Sutton -- 139
Carlton - 133
Glavine -- 124
Ryan -- 122

(No point in even listing Johnson, who didn't have his first really good season until he was 29.) I know that covers different eras, and that at least a couple of those guys go back to 4-man rotations. But he's in line with Maddux and Glavine, and much closer to the former than the latter. If he can bounce back to last year's form, he has a shot; if this year is the beginning of slow decline, no.

Or let's say bounce back halfway; last year was good enough to be something of a blip.

Felix is going to the bullpen. Servais informed him before the game.

— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) August 10, 2018

I had no idea he'd been declining so badly

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exile-for-king-felix/

at least he got that funny strikeout of beltre the other day (before beltre went deep on him) : /

figured this day was coming but it sucks that it happens the one year the Mariners are actually kinda good

this sorta happened to Verlander too but he bounced back, maybe there's hope for the ol' King. he's only 32!

Gets a spot start tonight because Paxton is on the DL

Should have been traded at the end of the 2016 season. He’s been worthless this last couple years.

felix hernandez, 2016-2019

434 IP, 77 GS
26-31, 4.79 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP
7.44 K/9 (19.1 K%), 3.27 BB/9 (8.4 BB%)

so what you're saying is that he'd be the no. 1 starter for the 2019 orioles