Stay Healthy, Please: The Clayton Kershaw Thread

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed
Not all messages are displayed: show all messages (274 of them)

I was going to mention Puig, but didn't want everyone yelling WAR at me (a modest 3.8 on Baseball Reference--negative for defense).

clemenza, Friday, 15 August 2014 15:35 (four years ago) link

McCutchen is on the DL with his rib, who knows how much more he'll play; and aside from Lucroy and Stanton -- who I could see winning only if the Marlins get a WC, or if he hits 45 HR -- most of the nonpitcher contenders got hurt in the last month.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 August 2014 16:22 (four years ago) link

I heard one of the laziest sports talk radio bits of all time - some challopy shit about Kershaw not being good 'in the playoffs' and only using stats from when he was like 20-21 and one bad start in the last game of the playoffs last year after racking up 250+ fucking IP.

I know its stupid to get annoyed with such things but good lord these people dont know shit about baseball.

panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 15 August 2014 18:13 (four years ago) link

Eight innings tonight, three hits, two walks, 10 K, 15th win. His WAR should be around 7.0 tomorrow in just over 150 IP.

clemenza, Friday, 22 August 2014 04:38 (four years ago) link

Starting to make a rout of the MVP--his last five or six starts would have to be noticeably bad for the writers to look for other options (none of which are really compelling at the moment).

clemenza, Thursday, 28 August 2014 14:09 (four years ago) link

If I had to predict now, I'd say Kershaw/Lucroy 1-2, unless Cutch heals miraculously and leads the Corsairs to October.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 August 2014 15:43 (four years ago) link

i get the feeling the debate is gonna be cutch vs stanton if the marlins keep being WC relevant

kershaw missed too many games to break the no-pitchers rule and lucroy isn't having enough of a posey/mauer-ish MVP season offensively to make snoozing writers care

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 28 August 2014 18:04 (four years ago) link

even with the missed games, he leads the majors in wins and his ERA starts with a 1. there's plenty to like from a traditional standpoint

k3vin k., Thursday, 28 August 2014 18:05 (four years ago) link

he'll win CY sure but so many writers are literally "the MVP is the hitting award", verlander had 24 wins and 250 innings when he won

would be awesome if he and felix both won tho

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Thursday, 28 August 2014 20:08 (four years ago) link

Last night was indeed a marquee match-up for four and two-thirds innings...Posnanski:

In total, Kershaw is on pace to become just the fifth pitcher since Deadball to have a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP. The previous four are all-time seasons:

1946: Hal Newhouser, 1.94 ERA, 1.97 FIP
1963: Sandy Koufax, 1.88 ERA, 1.85 FIP
1968: Bob Gibson, 1.12 ERA, 1.77 FIP
1971: Tom Seaver, 1.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP
2014: Clayton Kershaw, 1.70 ERA, 1.89 FIP

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/era-fip-and-kershaw/#comments

clemenza, Wednesday, 3 September 2014 22:38 (four years ago) link

Doesn't happen very often, I bet: pitcher having a historically great season up against a team that seems to have a historically anemic offense. Of course, to coin a phrase, baseball is a funny game, so if he doesn't pitch a perfect game, maybe he'll give up six runs instead.

clemenza, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 02:33 (four years ago) link

he takes forever to pitch

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 14:44 (four years ago) link

I really don't want to end up as someone who obsesses over WAR, but I'm confused as to why he was 7.8 yesterday, and still 7.8 after an 8-inning start where he gave up 3 hits, 2 walks, and one earned run, and he struck out 8. He did give up a couple of unearned runs. Does WAR penalize for unearned runs? (Which I don't have a major problem with; James always thought runs allowed was more important than earned runs allowed.)

clemenza, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:31 (four years ago) link

are you sure they've updated the numbers yet?

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:40 (four years ago) link

They have. Baseball Reference updates each morning sometime around 9:00; if the standing are updated, that means everything has been updated.

clemenza, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:42 (four years ago) link

i don't think rWAR distinguishes between earned and unearned runs

k3vin k., Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:47 (four years ago) link

for pitching, i prefer fWAR altho it's not perfect.

Van Horn Street, Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:49 (four years ago) link

fangraphs also has daily updates (he got 0.3 yesterday)

had no idea rWAR includes unearned runs though i guess that makes sense

linda cardellini (zachlyon), Tuesday, 9 September 2014 15:53 (four years ago) link

Today, he went up by 0.1 on Baseball Reference. I guess the rest of the league got worse as he sat watching.

clemenza, Wednesday, 10 September 2014 13:07 (four years ago) link

didn't realize hes only given up 33 earned runs and 27 walks all season ¯\(°_0)/¯

johnny crunch, Wednesday, 10 September 2014 14:14 (four years ago) link

19-3 now. take away his horrible start against arizona early in the season and his ERA is 1.38.

LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Monday, 15 September 2014 05:45 (four years ago) link

If he wins his next start, he'd get to 20 in his 27th start. SweetSpot: "Only one pitcher since 1901 has won 20 games in so few appearances -- Jesse Tannehill of the 1902 Pirates, who went 20-6 in 26 games."

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 13:50 (four years ago) link

wins, feh

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 September 2014 14:09 (four years ago) link

Jeff Weaver won 20 in only 30 starts in 2012. What's really amazing is that he didn't pitch deep into games like Kershaw does -- he only had 188 IP, and I think that's a record. Kershaw is at 185 IP, so the record is safe.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 15 September 2014 14:11 (four years ago) link

sorry, Jered Weaver, not Taco Weaver.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 15 September 2014 14:11 (four years ago) link

wins, feh

I would have thought this would be one instance where wins actually are an accurate measure of excellence, along with everything else.

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 15:10 (four years ago) link

what if he was having the same year, but pitching for the Padres?

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 September 2014 15:31 (four years ago) link

Kershaw's wins:

19-0, 146.2 IP, 87 H, 172/22 K/BB, 0.80 ERA, no cheap wins (though he did only pitch 5 innings in one of them; one run). Craig Kimbrel as a starter, basically, but with fewer strikeouts and better control.

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 15:36 (four years ago) link

what I'm saying is with a lousy offensive team, some of those wins would be NDs or even a loss or two. Which has nothing to do with him.

Pitcher wins are an excellent measure of 19th-century accounting.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 September 2014 15:38 (four years ago) link

You've picked the most extreme example...sure, in that case he'd probably be 16-6 or something. Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 15:39 (four years ago) link

except for all the other ones.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 September 2014 15:45 (four years ago) link

Which doesn't change the fact that, with Kershaw, his W-L record is an accurate measure of how well he's pitched.

Your sentence doesn't follow from mine--I don't think I said the most accurate, just one of many. I mean, I understand what you're saying, but you're using a hypothetical situation (what if he pitched for the Padres) to cast doubt on something we know to be true: Kershaw's 19-3 because he's been phenomenal, not because of run support or any other factor beyond his control. (Not sure what his run support's been, but I'm sure most of it has been superfluous.)

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 15:57 (four years ago) link

NO, HE IS 19-3 IN PART *BECAUSE* HIS TEAM SCORES FREQUENTLY

k bye

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Monday, 15 September 2014 16:20 (four years ago) link

Sorry, I just think that's factually wrong.

The 19 wins:
0 earned runs -- 8 times
1 earned run -- 9 times
2 earned runs -- 2 times

The 3 losses:
3 earned runs -- 2 times
7 earned runs -- 1 time

The 3 no-decisions:
3 earned runs -- 3 times

What you're saying would have a little or a lot of validity with most pitchers. I don't see that it has any validity here. If you can take those games and explain how 19-3 overstates Kershaw's excellence, I'd be interested in hearing that. Unless you're arguing that he should be even better than 19-3--that some of those losses and no-decisions might have been wins--in which case you have a point.

clemenza, Monday, 15 September 2014 17:00 (four years ago) link

Wins have more meaning for pitchers who average more innings per start. At 7.4 IP/start (tops in MLB, I think), Kershaw has a lot more control over the outcome of the game than a 6 IP/game pitcher whose W-L record is more influenced by the quality of his team's bullpen.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 15 September 2014 17:22 (four years ago) link

Also, he has a decent shot at the triple crown (again).

Van Horn Street, Monday, 15 September 2014 17:32 (four years ago) link

With the Cubs crumbling, Kershaw is set to be the first NL player since WWII to win 20 in less than 30, I know wins are dumb and whatnot but that seems significant enough.

Van Horn Street, Friday, 19 September 2014 18:54 (four years ago) link

6-3 Dodgers after one inning in Chicago!

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 19 September 2014 19:38 (four years ago) link

how did you arrange Edwin's return?

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 September 2014 20:23 (four years ago) link

Ha, Kershaw vs Jackson -- biggest pitching mismatch of the 21st century thus far?

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 19 September 2014 20:37 (four years ago) link

So that was Kershaw's second-worst outing of the year, maybe?

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Friday, 19 September 2014 21:03 (four years ago) link

I was going to say that, after that back-and-forth from a couple of days ago, he of course goes out today and picks up his first unimpressive win of the year--first time where run support clearly made a difference. It's like he's mocking my most excellent research.

clemenza, Friday, 19 September 2014 23:06 (four years ago) link

his 20th win in his 26th start. ridic.

LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Friday, 19 September 2014 23:37 (four years ago) link

uhhh Kershaw just destroyed the wins theory today, even clemenza noticed.

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 20 September 2014 00:09 (four years ago) link

cheap wins are a thing, tough losses are a thing (Braves starters demonstrating the hell out of that this year), everybody drop your guns or the kid gets it

Malibu Stasi (WilliamC), Saturday, 20 September 2014 00:24 (four years ago) link

it doesn't prove his mastery of all creation, but it *is* both rare and ridiculous

mookieproof, Saturday, 20 September 2014 00:26 (four years ago) link

In the end isn't every number just made up anyway, makes u think

LIKE If you are against racism (omar little), Saturday, 20 September 2014 05:34 (four years ago) link

Yesterday didn't destroy didn't destroy the wins theory. There was no theory in the first place, just the idea that Kershaw's 19-3 record, in this specific instance, did not exaggerate his excellence. Today, Kershaw's 20-3 record does not exaggerate his excellence.

clemenza, Saturday, 20 September 2014 13:03 (four years ago) link

on his triple he looked like a horse galloping out of a burning barn

son of a lewd monk (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 25 September 2014 04:09 (four years ago) link

We all know W-L records can be misleading, but when people quote run support, do they account for the fact that that can be misleading too? Nine runs were scored for Kershaw while he was the pitcher of record last night, so his average run support will be adjusted accordingly. What that doesn't tell you is that a) seven of those runs were superfluous, and b) the game was still 1-1 going into the bottom of the sixth.

clemenza, Thursday, 25 September 2014 12:12 (four years ago) link

@Ken_Rosenthal
Kershaw: “I am throwing slower. I know that. And I don’t know if that’s going to be for the rest of my career, either. I firmly believe that I can get that back and I’m going to spend a lot of time this off-season working on that.”

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 12:57 (eight months ago) link

did anyone say how Verlander got his velocity "back"? cuz i'm not aware of that happening for anyone else.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 2 November 2018 15:12 (eight months ago) link

this is baseball's greatest mystery for me -- i can understand how players can be faster than me, or make better contact, or hit the ball farther, etc. i don't understand how they throw so fucking hard

the astros have that reliever, josh james, who supposedly added 5+ mph to his fastball after getting his sleep apnea treated. i don't understand that either

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:53 (eight months ago) link

Verlander's case was a weird one, maybe it was because the injuries he suffered during that time were more easily manageable? The core muscle surgery, the triceps strain...I'm no doctor, but maybe those are not so much the types of issues that'll have long-term effects.

omar little, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:53 (eight months ago) link

knowing nothing at all, i'll just bullshit and say "it's all in the wrist"

Karl Malone, Friday, 2 November 2018 15:54 (eight months ago) link

did anyone say how Verlander got his velocity "back"? cuz i'm not aware of that happening for anyone else.

Health and mechanical tweaks.

xpost

Andy K, Friday, 2 November 2018 16:02 (eight months ago) link

And some other stuff.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2790162-the-road-that-brought-justin-verlander-back

Andy K, Friday, 2 November 2018 16:03 (eight months ago) link

three years, $93m

so he gets an extra year and $28m more guaranteed, will be a free agent following his age-33 season

mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 20:19 (eight months ago) link

the astros have that reliever, josh james, who supposedly added 5+ mph to his fastball after getting his sleep apnea treated. i don't understand that either

― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 11:53 AM (ten hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Body is less tired, muscles have more explosion, etc

Sleep apnea is shit.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:02 (eight months ago) link

yeah i have some sleep issues too but the specific correlation to a significant bump in fastball speed is astonishing

mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 02:29 (eight months ago) link

I have always wanted to be in a batter's box i just see how it feels like having a 100 mph ball coming towards you.

Van Horn Street, Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:34 (eight months ago) link

No idea where you live but most cages will have a machine that hits 90 or so.

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:42 (eight months ago) link

it's not really the same. the old machines with the levers are better, but the ones with the two tires give you no sense of timing

at least you know it's probably not going to hit you . . . unless you have a sadistic coach who's torqued up the two wheels. rip jack heimbuecher

mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 03:53 (eight months ago) link

I'm a bit confused by the Kershaw deal -- the one extra year doesn't give him much security. Wouldn't he want to hit free agency a year earlier and stand a better chance at getting a good 3-4 year deal when he's 32, rather than 33?

I guess the logic is that if he opted out now, would he get 3-4 years for 100 million total (=what he'll get from the extension)? He must think the answer is no.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 3 November 2018 04:26 (eight months ago) link

yeah i'm not sure he'd get a better deal, plus he and the dodgers love each other

mookieproof, Saturday, 3 November 2018 04:45 (eight months ago) link

three years, $93m

so he gets an extra year and $28m more guaranteed, will be a free agent following his age-33 season

― mookieproof, Friday, November 2, 2018 4:19 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

great deal for the dodgers, gives them an out to cut bait if he continues to regress. surprised kershaw took it

k3vin k., Saturday, 3 November 2018 06:28 (eight months ago) link

The shape of his career may mirror Seaver's, although the ages don't align precisely.

Seaver was dominant from '69 to '73 (age 24-28), great from '74 to '81 (29-36), and then he tacked on a few years where he was still reasonably effective relative to the league (37-41). There are some blips in there, but you can more or less identify three phases.

Kershaw's dominant phase stretches from 2011-2017 (age 23-29). Maybe last year was the beginning of his merely-great phase.

clemenza, Saturday, 3 November 2018 14:52 (eight months ago) link

three months pass...

Sinking feeling he's going to take the Koufax parallels too far.
― clemenza, Monday, July 24, 2017 10:33 AM (one year ago)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-shut-down-indefinitely-due-to-undisclosed-arm-issue-manager-dave-roberts-says/

I want to strangle the guy who named this thread.

clemenza, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:45 (five months ago) link

don't feel too bad, it happens to pretty much all of them. :(

Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:53 (five months ago) link

Per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, manager Dave Roberts says Kershaw has ceased throwing after feeling that something was amiss following a bullpen session. Roberts termed it an "arm kind of thing" and gave no timetable for a return to throwing. Kershaw will, however, take part in his usual non-throwing workouts.

yikes, an arm kind of thing.

Karl Malone, Saturday, 23 February 2019 16:54 (five months ago) link

in the words of Jeff Sullivan, "Pitching is bad, don't do it."

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 23 February 2019 17:00 (five months ago) link

one month passes...

well, his season debut is tonight. i would love to see him be able to have a couple more solid seasons

The immortal Hydra Viridisimma (outdoor_miner), Monday, 15 April 2019 15:39 (three months ago) link

Yeah, I’m thinking of going.

John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt, Monday, 15 April 2019 19:23 (three months ago) link

There are at least two prominent historical precedents where guys recreated themselves and went from overpowering strikeout pitchers to...I don't know--location and guile: Luis Tiant and Frank Tanana. Must be others. If he can do that, maybe he can put in six or seven more productive years.

clemenza, Monday, 15 April 2019 19:49 (three months ago) link

cc sabathia is a good example--obviously he never returned to his late '00s, early '10s heights, but he's been effective for the past few seasons.

to halve and half not (voodoo chili), Monday, 15 April 2019 20:08 (three months ago) link

Was surprised to see him go 7 tonight (I assume he won't be out for the 8th), but only 84 pitches.

clemenza, Tuesday, 16 April 2019 04:19 (three months ago) link


You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.