It is now time to fall in love with the King, Felix Hernandez

if their numbers stay about the same, Trout shd be MVP and Felix Cy -- any other result is trolling, esp assuming Angels make the postseason

I agree it's a bar that puts Felix in the best possible light--No Time basically made the same point above--but it wasn't cherry-picked for him; Cueto's streak was a story earlier in the year. I definitely disagree with nonsense. I'd like to see the winning percentage for teams where the starter goes at least seven and gives up two or fewer runs--extremely high, would be my guess. (.750 at least? I don't know.) If nothing else, it's a better definition of quality start than the current 6+/3-.

it does. and while i told a friend of mine that this streak is one of those things baseball fans/writers conjure up to have something to talk about – it doesn't make it any less impressive. what he's doing is not easy and it's certainly no fluke.

Extremely small sample, but I checked the Indians for this year. I picked them as being a perfectly average team: 60-60, close to the league average in both runs scored and runs allowed. Here are their pitchers when meeting the 7+/2- threshold (I don't think Felix's streak differentiates between earned and unearned runs, so I simply stuck to runs allowed):

Kluber -- 9-4
Bauer -- 1-0
Masterson -- 5-0
Tomlin -- 1-0
McAllister -- 1-0
Salazar -- 0-1
------------------
Overall -- 17-5 (.773)

Conceding it's such a small sample, I wouldn't want to read too much into it. But it is close to what my guess was, and it jibes with what seems like common sense to me: taking your team into the 8th inning and only giving up either 0, 1, or 2 runs is extremely valuable--in terms of winning, and in terms of not wearing out your bullpen.

If the rest that such a starter gives the bullpen is so valuable, it might be interesting to throw out all such starts and compare team winning percentages in all their other games.

Yeah, I'm probably making a conventional-wisdom assumption there. I wouldn't look at the team's winning pct. in other games--if it's .773 in the well-pitched starts, it'll be worse than normal in the rest of their games--but rather just the bullpen ERA or WHIP or something. The difference may in fact be minimal, or not exist at all.

Whatever you want to measure is fine by me, but it'd be interesting to see if there's a measurable secondary benefit to having a Felix in non-Felix starts.

better wording: a measurable secondary benefit in non-Felix starts on teams that have a Felix.

I'll see how ambitious I am...I might just look at the Mariners during Felix's streak: maybe their performance in non-Felix games during the streak vs. their performance the rest of the year. It might at least indicate whether the conventional wisdom applies in this one case.

kind of like how they measured the "dicky effect" on how hitters were worse the day after facing him? (i realize tho the cause and effect is different in this case)

xp -- I wasn't asking you specifically to do the work! Just saying that that would be interesting data, whether the Felix's name happens to be Felix or Halladay or whatever.

As opposed to the "dick effect," which measures the behaviour of people after listening to Rush Limbaugh all afternoon.

xp -- kinda, yeah.

What seems obvious is that the benefit of bullpen rest isn't best measured on days they're resting, but on days they're working.

Nah, I like doing this stuff for my own curiosity. The main thing is, you've got to look into it. I said Felix helps his bullpen, when if fact I have no idea if that's true or not.

I like thinking about advanced metrics but am terrible at writing about them, just for the record.

Another thing that seems self-evident to me is that if there is a benefit to having strong 7+/2- starters, it's going to show up in the long relief and setup guys. When Superstarter goes 7+, the closer is at least as likely, if not more likely, to make an appearance, so he's not getting any of that rest.

True--the benefit, if it exists, would seem to go to your middle relievers.

I like something like this because it doesn't require advanced metrics at all. You just have to design the comparison in a way that makes sense, then you're working with basic measures like ERA or WHIP. WAR and Win Probability and such--the actual calculation of them--is way beyond what I can do. (Although I get the feeling WP is not difficult to calculate, just time-consuming.)

Watching the baseball game with my dad tonight, I had to teach him what a shortstop was. He knows absolutely nothing about baseball. He asked me what would be considered a good pitching performance and I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Cool story VHS.

I told him that 7 innings with less than 2 runs is, rule of thumb, a pretty good pitching performance.

Make sure to tell him you know a place where people take days debating the validity of such statements. (True of baseball fans in general.)

and it ends.

Felix, Kluber, Kluber, Felix?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-the-al-cy-young-voting-reflect-that-the-race-is-dead-even/

i knew Kluber was having a good season – but had no idea it was *that* good. where the hell did this season come from anyways?! his minor league numbers gave no real hint he was this type of pitcher.

Sorry, fellow Jays fans; tonight I root for Felix.

i'm rooting for a 1-0 10th inning J's victory.

oh. just turned on the game - J's already scored.

Chris Mosch, BP:

The rare implosion by Hernandez resulted in not only the most runs he had allowed in a single inning this season, but also the most he had surrendered in a single game all year. The eight total earned runs Hernandez gave up tied a career worst for the right-hander and his ERA jumped from a league-leading 2.07 to 2.34.

Not only did Hernandez’s worst outing of the season drop the Mariners three games behind the Royals for a wild card slot with just five remaining, it also loosened his grasp on the Cy Young Award race, which he appeared to have all but wrapped up a month ago. After last night’s start, Corey Kluber holds a 2.39-to-2.60 FIP advantage while pitching just three fewer innings. Last night’s blowup by Hernandez also narrowed the gap in ERA between the two, despite Hernandez pitching in front of a much better defense and to a superior receiver behind the dish. Cleveland’s ace will have a final chance to sway the voters Saturday night against the Rays.

If I were voting for any award that came down to two closely matched players, and one of them was having a potentially fluke year and the other had a well established level of excellence, I'd always vote for the established player. But at this point, Kluber has probably pulled away enough that I'd feel okay voting for him.

klubes has more fWAR than kershaw (by 0.1)

hughes and lester have more than felix

what a disappointing second half

ERA *really* sucks as an "authoritative" stat.

Hernandez has a chance to take the AL ERA title Sunday. A scoring decision Saturday charged Hernandez with an error in Tuesday's 10-2 loss at Toronto, a play originally called a hit. The change removed four earned runs from Hernandez's record, dropping his ERA from 2.34 to 2.18 going into his final start of the regular season. Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, who made his final scheduled start Wednesday, leads the AL at 2.17.

Watch him throw a no hitter today!

It has its limitations, like any stat. Here, I think for the opposite reason of what I'm guessing is behind your post (that it's not right that an seemingly arbitrary ERA title may get Felix the Cy Young): how that one lousy start obscured Felix's great run earlier in the year, and after being thought of as the best pitcher in the league for most of the season, his ERA crosses paths with Kluber's and now he's no longer the favourite. (I.e., if he was the best pitcher before that one start, isn't he still the best pitcher after it? It's one start.)

i really dont give a shit about the Cy Young

"like any stat"

you really just... nm

You're always saying you don't care about stuff you clearly care about, else you wouldn't post so often about them--awards and the HOF at the top of the list.

And here I thought you guys would be complaining about the "narrative" events of the past week and how they will impact the voting:

-- Felix the clear CY winner, with Kluber right behind him
-- Felix blows up against Toronto, Seattle tanks their playoff chances, Kluber dominates in his final start and is looking like the frontrunner for the award
-- Oakland continues sucking, game 162 somehow ends up mattering for Seattle, Felix gets a shot at redemption for his team and a chance to upstage Kluber again

So Felix went from pariah who choked away the CY, to ace pitcher making the most important start of his career, all in less than a week.

He was removed from the game as soon as the A's won.

Aahhh - that's what happened.

Close to a coin flip--for every point you make on one side, there's one on the other. I looked at the game logs and totaled quality starts using the same definition as Felix's streak: 7+ innings, 2 or fewer runs (earned or otherwise).

Kluber: 19/34
Felix: 22/34

Kluber wins on WAR and FIP, Felix on ERA and WHIP. Innings, they're separated by one out, K/BB and run support are also almost even. Kluber had the better September, for sure (after a poor start to start the month), and seeing as both teams were chasing a wild-card spot, I do think that matters. I'd probably vote for Felix for the reason I gave earlier: all things being close to equal, I'd rather vote for the established great player.

Runs allowed depend on too many factors, so I like to look at Game Scores to get an idea of a pitcher's dominance.

Turns out that's more or less a wash too -- Kluber has more dominant starts (GSc > 80) but also more bad ones (GSc < 50), whereas Felix was more consistently good.

is this Cy Young going to com down to fielding? because that would be awesome!

three words for you: arm wrestling contest

many cy youngs have come down to fielding bcz era is a team stat

which is why i vote for kluuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuubezzzzzzzzzzzzz

i would vote both Cys by FIP this year since Hamels is not in the NL top 5

4th youngest to 2000 K.

Feller, Seaver, and Clemens the others? (Or maybe Blyleven.)

Only one of the four correct.

tied with orel for 70th all-time

at 29

Ryan surely

wow

Houston - Bottom of 1st	SCORE
Felix Hernandez pitching for Seattle	SEA	HOU
Jose Altuve	Strike (foul), Strike (foul), Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop	0	0
Preston Tucker	Ball, Ball, Ball, Ball, Tucker walked, Altuve to second	0	0
George Springer	Ball, Ball, Springer doubled to right, Altuve scored, Tucker to third	0	1
Evan Gattis	Gattis grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Tucker and Springer scored, Gattis safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hernández	0	3
Colby Rasmus	Ball, Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Ball, Ball, Rasmus walked	0	3
Carlos Correa	Strike (looking), Strike (swinging), Ball, Foul, Ball, Strike (looking), Correa struck out looking	0	3
Luis Valbuena	Strike (swinging), Valbuena homered to right center, Gattis and Rasmus scored	0	6
Chris Carter	Strike (looking), Strike (looking), Carter singled to left	0	6
Jason Castro	Ball, Strike (foul), Castro homered to left, Carter scored	0	8
Jose Altuve	Beimel relieved Hernández, Strike (looking), Altuve grounded out to shortstop	0	8
Preston Tucker	Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Tucker singled to center	0	8
George Springer	Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), Springer struck out swinging	0	8