Is there anything the Labour Party can do to win the next election?

I'm not sure how he managed to get the prudent tag in the first place given the huge increases in debt and the huge increases in money supply that occured during his tenure

Urgently required: 1 Labour-saving device

Ask Tony Blair if he wants his old job back.

Brown was prudently counter cyclical for the first half of his tenure, then the wheels fell of that plan.

One or two senior government figures will suddenly start saying as little as possible in order to drop off the radar and avoid being tainted by this govt's last couple of years. Anyone heard anything from Jack Straw lately?

-- Matt DC, Friday, May 2, 2008

seems to be 3rd favourite behind Cameron and Osbourne to be next PM

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/uk-cabinet-specials/next-prime-minister

"huge increases in debt" <--- a. no one considered qualified to comment considered this a problem, b. it wasn't g.brown's personal debt it's all those chavs (<--- taxicab thinking not mine)

prudent = nothing much went pearshaped
qualified to comment = economic and financial commentary in general is indicted by subprime (which is a a bit of a reflex marker anyway for colossal scale of debt in key western economies at all levels)

The prudence tag came from a first term "hey look Britain we are not going to lavish money on everything in the first five minutes and then realise there's nothing in the cash register" and he got attacked by the left for sticking to Tory spending plans. Damned if you do, damned if you don't kind of thing.

Also, Brown actually paid off a big chunk of national debt prior to the 2001 election which won the continued support of the Sun. Obviously he borrowed more since, but it's worth noting.

I worry about the cuts in spending that will arise from a Tory government plus failing economy. I suspect this is the nasty stuff Cameron is holding over until after the election.

well debt and money supply are the same thing anyway so the reiteration wasn't required. debt can be written off as personal problems I guess - but call it what it really is - money supply - and the fault comes back to the administration

oh god i just realised: three phrases that will now never be off pundit lips

i: stalking horse
ii: throw his/her hat in the ring
iii: last chance fucking saloon

you forgot

GREEN SHOOTS OF RECOVERY

ad nauseum for next 5 years

http://www.mediastorehouse.com/image/STALKING-HORSE_602060.jpg?mediatype=2&mediaid=602060&fitfill=fit&pvw=676

iii: last chance fucking saloon

Not sure about this one. Unless it's Jeremy Vine: Live and Uncensored.

haha when i looked up black wednesday -- via the medium of norman "just been fisted" lamont's wiki -- it says that's one of the phrases he most regrets using (motto of april 1992 election): that and singing in the bath (or telling the world he had done so)

Stalking horses are v. unlikely under current Labour party rules, Brown would have to actually call a leadership election.

oh god i just realised: three phrases that will now never be off pundit lips

i: stalking horse
ii: throw his/her hat in the ring
iii: last chance fucking saloon

LAME DUCK

or the PLP would have to kneecap him xpost

http://marcio.net/photos/cd0009/echo_park-one_legged_duck-0797.jpg

That would make any duck lame

That is the cutest thing ever.

OK now that laxalt has spoken I am confident Labour will win the next election

ILX's very own mystic Mogg!

Had the Tories called a snap GE after the bounce they received post-Thatcher resignation/Major election, they may well have won. I do recall in mid-1990 - the absolute depths of Thatcher's unpopularity - there were polls suggesting Lab's huge lead would be wiped out by a change of Tory leader (Heseltine was the fave then, of course). They hung on for two years and, fortunately for them, Kinnock's popularity curved gently up, then down.

Labour's late '07/early '08 is the Tories' late '92...

"The term stalking horse originally derived from the practice of hunting, particularly of wildfowl. Hunters noticed that many birds would flee immediately on the approach of humans, but would tolerate the close presence of animals such as horses and cattle.

"Hunters would therefore slowly approach their quarry by walking alongside their horses, keeping their upper bodies out of sight until the flock was within firing range. Animals trained for this purpose were called stalking horses. Sometimes "fake" or pantomime horse-style outfits would be used."

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise.

There is something so weirdly dissociated about the public announcement of stalking-horsism: ok wildfowl are a bit dim when it comes to the relationship of humans with guns and horses, fair enough THEY ARE BIRDS AND THEY HAVE TINY BRAINS, but actual real competent or even quite incompetent politicians are reading that someone has loudly announced their intention to get the hunter up close by means of a ruse

bah

*goes and has goat got*

birds obviously not that brainy as they cannot count legs; 4 safe, 6 danger

I wouldn't mind so much if it actually involved ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

what am i saying jeremy vine has already started dressing up hasn't he

ppl IN pantomime horse-style outfits sidling up to an actual wild duck, wild or otherwise

Design department on Newsnight working on this as we speak

Could they run ads with the slogan "Do you remember the last Tory government?", with a montage of images of Major, Thatcher, that guy who broke the pound, Michael Howard, and then David Cameron.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/images/new_labour_new_danger_1.gif

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jonathan_myerson/2008/05/we_are_really_in_trouble.html

Yougov, who had the results of the London Mayoral elections spot on (much closer than any other pollers), have just issued their latest poll figures:

CON 49%
LAB 23%
LD 17%

In an general election, that would mean the Tories elected with a majority of 288 seats.

I know people are annoyed with Labour at the moment... but are 1 in every 2 people that vote at the next election really going to vote Tory? I thought Britain had moved on.

On the topic of replacing Gordon Brown - even if they did the party did want rid of him, no serious contender (e.g. (i.e.?) Milliband) is going to blow their potential future career by taking office for a couple of years and then leading Labour to a horrible defeat in 2009. Better off taking over after the next election and rebuilding in opposition.

To be honest... the most positive outcome I can realistically imagine happening is a small Tory majority after 2009 election, followed by Labour victory in 2013/4.

http://bp1.blogger.com/_77g3DtXDJXE/SCGz1ZMVjAI/AAAAAAAAB3o/cQwAh-gdfzk/s320/waxworks.JPG

Melt him down and make a Boris Johnson.

Then Boris can leave the waxwork in his office and fuck off on holiday for the rest of his term.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7395545.stm

Here's a plan for Labour to win the next election. They should:

- use the rest of this year to get all their fiascos, feuds and buried bodies out in the open
- at the same time take a scattergun approach and bring in lots of new initiatives which will be unpopular in the short-term but which have a chance of paying off in late 2009/2010 (no idea what these might be, but bear with me)
- it will become obvious fairly quickly that half of these new initiatives are going to be disastrous. Spend the first half of next year pinning them firmly on Brown
- but remember to change the mood music so that the story in 2009 is not about Labour feuding, but about a government trying to cope with a difficult situation, it's just that Brown can't do this. Associate the successful initiatives with a handful of guys like Miliband, Johnson and so on
- at the same time, these guys prepare quietly for a leadership challenge in late 2009, ideally as a straightforward choice between someone likeable and Brown
- DON'T CHOOSE BROWN
- new leader strips out whatever old guard is left from Labour's first term, like Straw and Darling, so that the cabinet looks youngish but still recognisable
- call the general election shortly afterwards
- portray it as a choice between two fresh administrations, one with a bit more experience than the other, and hope for the benefit of the doubt

The only problem with this plan is that it relies on: i) party discipline; ii) the government having at least a few good ideas left in the locker; and iii) Brown agreeing to be the fall guy. So it won't work. Apart from that, it's foolproof.

I wonder if the talk about Field as a possible leader has got to him and he's trying to bring Brown down.

Field's creepy, there's a touch of the Enoch Powells about him

Why doesn't he just defect to the Tories and have done with it?

Cue stock "should have stuck to yodelling" pun of course.

Apparently a lot of the talk in Labour at the moment is of the "self-harm" strategy: try and get everything that can go wrong in the next three years to go wrong in the next six months, place the blame for everything entirely on Brown, then bring in Exciting New Leader. Except the choices there are Balls (no, just no) and Milliband (looks like a Tory).

Galloway to make a triumphant return as Labour party leader, then.

Milliband (looks like a Tory).

In that case, he's perfect... provided he thinks like a Tory too

Dom that's pretty much what Ismael Klata just said

Miliband just seems like a yes-man robot drone to me

ken livingstone for PM obv.

Next election let's just have Leon and Rhydian and vote for whoever cries more.

Galloway to make a triumphant return as Labour party leader, then.

http://images-srv.leonardo.it/progettiweb/nonsolocritiche/blog/1984-movie-bb1.jpg

I'll always vote for Ken Livingstone - as you can tell.

I like David Miliband OK.

I do not at all believe that Ed Balls could possibly be taken seriously as leader or PM. No way, for various reasons. Including: you can't stand for PM and be called 'Balls'. He can only ever be an underling.

The most charitable explanation re. Frank Field's behaviour is that he's doing everything he can to reverse the tax change, I suppose. But I don't care for him. He wasn't very nice back in 1997, as far as I know.

As Brown's tenure now looks as though it may be a short one I'd suggest that Yvette Cooper may be a strong bet to replace him.

Oh, God no

That smarmy git James Purnell is coming up thru the Field

That's true.

Cooper is better-looking.