George W. Bush, the security threat to America and the states that support him

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I demand a graph of some kind. A pie chart if possible.

Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:32 (nineteen years ago) link

A similar strategy apparently worked in Canada.

Yup, we swayed 'the moneyed and the immigrants' and made the poor little PQ loose.

Mr Noodles (Mr Noodles), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:33 (nineteen years ago) link

note that almost all of the high-density cities are in the North, and almost all the low-density cities in the South

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:34 (nineteen years ago) link

I demand that W return to the private sector and bring pie.

briania (briania), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:35 (nineteen years ago) link

aka: agrarian vs. industrialization = the civil war!

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:36 (nineteen years ago) link

My density has brought me to you

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:40 (nineteen years ago) link

Dallas and Houston are GOP too though, I think you sort of said that upthread.

hstencil (hstencil), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:40 (nineteen years ago) link

right

of course i did this the hard way - the density rankings make it plainer

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:50 (nineteen years ago) link

So...is Anchorage GOP then?

Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:53 (nineteen years ago) link

yes, heavily

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:55 (nineteen years ago) link

Really? That surprises me. I don't know why - I guessed that republicanism was linked to humidity making people cranky.

Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Monday, 18 October 2004 19:58 (nineteen years ago) link

which again suggests that density is an overriding factor - Anchorage is the least dense city above 50,000 people (even though it has four times that number) after one small city in Virginia, only three points ahead of it. it's density is less than that of the entire (Democratic) state of Hawaii, the biggest city of which has a density more than 100 times greater (though lower than Dallas, for instance).

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:07 (nineteen years ago) link

dunno if Hawaii is humid though

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:08 (nineteen years ago) link

Incredibly humid.

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:14 (nineteen years ago) link

Well, there goes my Nobel prize.

Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:15 (nineteen years ago) link

the last cartogram here makes the point even more dramatically

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:23 (nineteen years ago) link

of course, cold may cause people to come together and humidity to keep more distance

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:34 (nineteen years ago) link

and Hawaii is an exception because of extenuating geographic circumstances

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 20:35 (nineteen years ago) link

or put another way, how did New York evolve from a small Dutch village on the southern tip of an island into what it is today? Was any sprawl or conglomeration involved? Perhaps?

also, while the layout of lower Manhattan was largely unplanned, it took nearly 200 years for colonists to move above Wall Street, and they planned much of the rest of the island very shortly after doing so

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 21:34 (nineteen years ago) link

also, NYC was the first American municipality to institute a zoning ordinance (1916), one that restricted the massing of skyscrapers in order to allow light to reach the street, but that refused to limit the height of buildings, allowing more vertical construction and therefore greater density

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 21:45 (nineteen years ago) link

also, it wasn't until annexation that the subway began - the Interborough Rapid Transit Company was formed in 1902

gabbneb (gabbneb), Monday, 18 October 2004 22:10 (nineteen years ago) link

Here's what I had in mind when I was phrasing this question originally, this article mentions:

With a little more than two weeks to the election, Bush was campaigning in New Jersey, a reliably Democratic state that was hit hard when terrorists struck the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001.

Campaigning in Marlton, N.J., Bush accused Kerry of having a pre-Sept. 11 view of the world, a mind-set that he called dangerous. Kerry's approach to terrorism would permit a response "only after America is hit," he said.

"This kind of Sept. 10 attitude is no way to protect our country," Bush said, echoing many lines from his debate appearances and campaign speeches.

The Bush campaign unveiled a new TV ad that sought to portray Kerry as weak on terrorism - "either we fight terrorists abroad or face them here" - and accuses the Democrat of opposing President Reagan "as he won the Cold War."

Nearly 700 New Jersey residents died when hijacked airplanes flew into the World Trade Center's twin towers, and polls show national security and terrorism are the top campaign issues among voters in the state.

Democrat Al Gore easily won New Jersey in 2000, but voters' worry about another terrorist attack is a key reason why Bush and Kerry are locked in a tight race for the state's 15 electoral votes.

Kerry adviser Joe Lockhart says New Jersey is an interesting place for the president to campaign because its two senators and former Gov. Thomas Kean, chairman of the bipartisan Sept. 11 commission, have complained that Bush hasn't done enough to push the panel's recommendations into law.

The writer's logic in this article seems to be that a large election factor for people in NJ is the probability of another terrorist attack but makes no mention that there is less of a race in New York and DC, neighboring state and district where attacks actually occured.

gygax! (gygax!), Monday, 18 October 2004 22:21 (nineteen years ago) link

it took nearly 200 years for colonists to move above Wall Street, and they planned much of the rest of the island very shortly after doing so.

So the same colonists lived for 200 years?

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 02:54 (nineteen years ago) link

San Diego: Last I heard, a slight Democratic majority in the city proper, but probably a fairly sizable Republican majority in the county.

Tim Ellison (Tim Ellison), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 04:56 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm confused and frightened by the dancing numbers but something of what I imagine Gabbneb's point to be seems like kind of a no-brainer, for me at least. Your Democratic city strongholds do tend to be in denser, more urbanized cities; and the few large cities with strong Republican support do seem to be those that have big enough suburban-style populations to outweigh the core "city" vote. It's a simple issue of lifestyle, I assume; in cities like Houston or Indianapolis there are loads of places you can live that aren't hugely different in tone and organization from smaller "red state" towns. And I get the feeling that people living in areas like that are actually more likely to be driven right -- by a resistance to urbanization, fears of "urban" problems like crime, and in a lot of cases economic aspirations. (These are people, in a lot of cases, who are there to take advantage of the economic opportunities of the city, but who don't want to be pulled into any "city" mentality of governance; don't tread and/or tax on their gated communities, etc.)

The thread question here is an excellent one, and one that's been bugging me for a long time now. It's strange not just vote-wise but emotionally: people in states that have almost no chance of being affected by terrorism seem actually to be more personally upset with the possibility than people who are actually in a position to have to deal with it. I suppose if you live in Arkansas terrorism is a much more effective bogeyman?

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 18:13 (nineteen years ago) link

I think it's more like if you live in Arkansas, you have no incentive to investigate who's really tough on terror because it isn't going to affect you one way or another.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 18:58 (nineteen years ago) link

That doesn't seem to be how it plays out, though: the Bush/Cheney fearmongering and perceived "toughness" actually strike these voters as a value, and their sense of "we were attacked / we retaliated" is often very simple and direct and trusting. This may have more to do with a kind of unnuanced patriotism than anything else, but I think it also helps that for people living in certain types of mid-country towns the whole thing remains very much an abstraction. Living in a large cosmopolitan city means not only reacting to an event like that with a lot more nuanced thought, but also (in limited cases) having a very different sense of the surrounding world.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:05 (nineteen years ago) link

These less urban states also contribute disproportionately to the military ranks. So not only are they less likely to suffer direct effects of terrorism - they are more likely to be the ones getting shot at over in Iraq or Iran or Syria or wherever when Dubya decides to get tough.

o. nate (onate), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:08 (nineteen years ago) link

It's strange not just vote-wise but emotionally: people in states that have almost no chance of being affected by terrorism seem actually to be more personally upset with the possibility than people who are actually in a position to have to deal with it.

I think you might piss off quite a few military families from the red states with that line. xpost

bnw (bnw), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:10 (nineteen years ago) link

Thank you Nabisco for saying what I was trying to convey much more literately and sensibly.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:11 (nineteen years ago) link

That doesn't seem to be how it plays out, though: the Bush/Cheney fearmongering and perceived "toughness" actually strike these voters as a value, and their sense of "we were attacked / we retaliated" is often very simple and direct and trusting

You can't take the language people use at face value. If your adherence to one side is pre-rational, because it's what your neighbors do, and you'd stick out too much if you went against them, you don't have to believe or justify to yourself the words you use to defend your position, you just have to mouth the party line. Same reason people on opposite banks of the Upper Mississippi apparently pick football teams based on the State they live in.

I think you might piss off quite a few military families from the red states with that line

oh? How are they "affected by terrorism"?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:14 (nineteen years ago) link

I mean, yes, you're right, it is direct and trusting. But it wouldn't be if they had a stake in it.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:18 (nineteen years ago) link

Yeah, bnw, I'm making a distinction between "being affected by terrorism" and "being affected by our responses to terrorism"; they're somewhat different things. And the national security fears these people cite aren't about our soldiers abroad; they're about their own safety in the homeland, which isn't threatened in quite the same way as people in a handful of major cities.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:22 (nineteen years ago) link

I don't think it follows that just because a terrorist event hasn't happened in a small town or wherever means that a terrorist event couldn't. I'm not sure why people in small towns should be any less concerned, though clearly in my view I don't think that concern about this issue should lead to support for Dubya. Let's not forget that the biggest terrorist event on American soil prior to 9/11 was in Oklahoma City.

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:28 (nineteen years ago) link

Surely we can also make a distinction between the type of terrorism seen in Oklahoma City and the kind thus far seen in big target cities.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:31 (nineteen years ago) link

why?

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:33 (nineteen years ago) link

Because the type of terrorism seen in Oklahoma city came from the type of people who already exist, by and large, in places very much like Oklahoma City? Scratch that, even, I don't see why you're asking why: it seems fairly obvious to me.

Anyway, the point isn't to say that people in rural portions of the country are entirely insulated from terrorism; I just find it interesting that, rhetorically, people in presumably non-target areas seem to have a serious visceral fear of it that people in target-type areas don't, necessarily. Which is in some ways natural; living in big cities means dealing with a certain sense of non-safety from the get-go, and terrorism-wise means dealing with the idea, on some level or other. But it's nevertheless interesting.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:35 (nineteen years ago) link

I don't think it follows that just because a terrorist event hasn't happened in a small town or wherever means that a terrorist event couldn't

no one's saying it couldn't, of course. only that if you live in NY or LA or Chicago, the chances of your dying in a terrorist attack are like a million times greater than the chances of anyone who lives in a rural area. unless it's near a nuclear plant, perhaps.

also, let's talk about a public secret here. terrorists want to kill Americans, but they want to kill jews even more. not too many of them in, say, Dothan, Alabama.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:39 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm interested whether if the OKC Federal Building, Ted Kaczynski, Atlanta Olympics bombings happened today if Bush would call the acts "terrorism" by name.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:40 (nineteen years ago) link

Because the type of terrorism seen in Oklahoma city came from the type of people who already exist, by and large, in places very much like Oklahoma City? Scratch that, even, I don't see why you're asking why: it seems fairly obvious to me.

It seems fairly obvious to me that terrorism is a tactic, and has nothing to do with what "type" of person employs it. A person killed by a truck bomb is a person killed by a truck bomb is a person killed by a truck bomb. Because Oklahoma City may be populated with those "type[s] of people" (ugh I can't believe you used that phrase) and therefore may seem more homogenous to you and me and every other "urbane" New Yorker doesn't mean that those "type[s] of people" shouldn't be afforded protection from an event that has already proven to be as much an eventuality as it is here, no matter who carried it out!

Also I think it's totally specious to say that people in big cities are somehow NOT afraid of terrorism, and people out in the sticks are just big dumb "type[s] of people" who are the only ones susceptible to fear. Because even though I agree with some premises of this thread, I do think that's what some of us are saying here, and I don't buy it.

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:42 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm saying quite the opposite - people in cities ARE more afraid of terrorism than people who are not. That's why they're for Kerry.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:44 (nineteen years ago) link

To repeat the last part of my "question":

I found it very telling that these states/district are also recent (ie, GWB's term) terrorist targets or probably highly likely to be targeted if another terrorist group attacks an American city, and even yet, are least persuaded by Bush's commitment to protect the American people from terrorism.

gygax! (gygax!), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:45 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm interested whether if the OKC Federal Building, Ted Kaczynski, Atlanta Olympics bombings happened today if Bush would call the acts "terrorism" by name.

I'm pretty sure that Clinton referred to them as terrorist acts. Dunno about Bush, that is a good question.

no one's saying it couldn't, of course. only that if you live in NY or LA or Chicago, the chances of your dying in a terrorist attack are like a million times greater than the chances of anyone who lives in a rural area. unless it's near a nuclear plant, perhaps.

How does one calculate the chances of dying in a terrorist attack? Is it something akin to the chances of being struck by lightning?

also, let's talk about a public secret here. terrorists want to kill Americans, but they want to kill jews even more. not too many of them in, say, Dothan, Alabama.

y'know, gabbneb, there are Jews in the South. And comments like that only serve to marginalize them. You don't know how many Jews live in Dothan, nor that there aren't any at all, so I wish you'd stop. It's offensive.

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:46 (nineteen years ago) link

Not so much that urbanites are more afraid of terrorism than people in rural areas, more a different perspective on how the threat should be addressed. As a crude stereotype, the blue staters think the red staters are belligerent bullies, and the red staters think the blue staters are impotent pussies.

j.lu (j.lu), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:47 (nineteen years ago) link

I'm saying quite the opposite - people in cities ARE more afraid of terrorism than people who are not. That's why they're for Kerry.

I agree with that. That's one reason why I'm for Kerry too. I'm talking about statements like this:

"I just find it interesting that, rhetorically, people in presumably non-target areas seem to have a serious visceral fear of it that people in target-type areas don't, necessarily."

which are completely impossible to even verify.

hstencil (hstencil), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:48 (nineteen years ago) link

I wasn't even going to come back for this, Stencil, but you're reading "types of people" in some big dumb secret way that must be breaking your brain just to argue with me: the "type" of terrorist I'm talking about is a particular kind of anti-government American terrorist, not "people who live in Oklahoma City." For God's sake. And the "type" of terrorist people are talking about when they talk about the current administration keeping them safe from terrorism is a very different type of terrorist, with a very different agenda and wildly different tactics and targets. And furthermore the actions that said administration takes to protect people from the one type are very different than the actions they'd take to protect people from the next: this administration claims that going to war in Iraq was one step in a grand plan to keep America safe from terrorist threats, and not the kind seen in Oklahoma City. I'm sorry, but I'm kind of steamed that you have to try to read some kind of urban condescension into what I said to evade the obvious point of it.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:49 (nineteen years ago) link

And -- xpost -- note the word "rhetorically" in that sentence.

nabisco (nabisco), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:50 (nineteen years ago) link

oh please. I don't need to know the Jewish population of Dothan, only that the vast majority of American Jews live in NY and LA and a few other cities. you're telling me that the Jewish population of Dothan is remotely comparable, per capita, to these cities? who am I offending?

How does one calculate the chances of dying in a terrorist attack? Is it something akin to the chances of being struck by lightning?

I don't understand how this responds to my statement.

xpost: does Nabisco have to point out that most domestic terrorists are distrustful of government and that most who are distrustful of government live in rural areas?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:50 (nineteen years ago) link

most who are distrustful of government live in rural areas?

Where is this coming from?

n/a (Nick A.), Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:56 (nineteen years ago) link

Dude if people in the big cities were really afraid of terrorism, seriously, nobody'd get up in the morning to go to work. Fuck that. Going downtown is just like asking for it. There's no way to secure the subways, no way to secure the ports, and no way to secure the bridges. Honestly. People in big cities = not giving a shit. When they read the evacuation drill procedure in my office we all laugh. People in the burbs ARE scared, because they CAN be. Those of us with daily train rides have to function.

TOMBOT, Tuesday, 19 October 2004 19:56 (nineteen years ago) link

Can I just interject here -- in sort of an "I'm not gabbneb" maneuver -- that all I was really talking about, above, was the particular rhetoric of party support when it comes to this issue? Which is to say, the level of how vocal people in various places are about the issue, and how they appear to voice and argue from those concerns? We seem to have spiraled off into some point-scoring netherworld wherein hstencil, for instance (sorry stencil, just an example) has gone from saying "but the last attack was in OKCity" to "actually homegrown terrorists hit big cities too." Personally I'm aware of both of those things, and I'm also aware of the Michigan Militia, because I used to have to load huge slabs of beef onto the back of their camo trucks when I worked at a northern-Michigan (ring finger, second knuckle) grocery store. I remain interested in why people in non-"target" areas seem sometimes to be stronger in voicing their fears of attack than people in "target" areas, and while I'm sure the psychology discussed above plays into it, and while I'm sure on some level it's just a line that often derives from having a prexisting support for and belief in the administration, it still strikes me as somewhat fascinating. Anyway.

nabiscothingy, Friday, 22 October 2004 01:52 (nineteen years ago) link


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