http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749
― Steve Shasta (Steve Shasta), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:00 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Saturday, 10 February 2007 08:07 (seventeen years ago) link
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=190
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Sunday, 11 February 2007 02:00 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 9 March 2007 20:31 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:01 (seventeen years ago) link
― mattbot, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:13 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 15:35 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 17:57 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 23 March 2007 19:03 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 22:50 (seventeen years ago) link
― Alex in SF, Friday, 23 March 2007 23:06 (seventeen years ago) link
― Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 27 March 2007 15:42 (seventeen years ago) link
YSI?
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 16:15 (sixteen years ago) link
:`(
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 20:38 (sixteen years ago) link
"Basically 80-82 seems like the absolute worst case scenario to me."
HAHAHA!
― Alex in SF, Friday, 8 February 2008 21:52 (sixteen years ago) link
Also LOL:
Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird. -- Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, January 16, 2007 7:41 AM (1 year ago)
and some!
― Steve Shasta, Friday, 8 February 2008 21:59 (sixteen years ago) link
Joe Kennedy, Swing, TOR:
40 G, 9 GS, 4.78 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
I think it is safe to say that he will underperform his 2008 PECOTA prediction.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 11 February 2008 10:25 (sixteen years ago) link
Peavy: 212 IP, 223K, 1.13 WHIP, 2.98 ERA
Santana: 225 IP, 239K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.94 ERA
This would be a hell of a Cy Young battle -- the closest matchup in years!
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 11 February 2008 10:28 (sixteen years ago) link
Is Santana's league adjusted?
― Steve Shasta, Tuesday, 12 February 2008 16:30 (sixteen years ago) link
Yes -- he's listed as a Met.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 12 February 2008 17:58 (sixteen years ago) link
What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?
― earlnash, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 01:11 (sixteen years ago) link
.274/.325/.444 20 HR, 20 SB 22.4 VORP
― Steve Shasta, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 02:23 (sixteen years ago) link
are they projecting Ryan Zimmermann over David Wright?
― Dr Morbius, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 15:03 (sixteen years ago) link
yes, they have Zimmerman at .339/.420/.687
― Dimension 5ive, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 16:45 (sixteen years ago) link
nb: I haven't seen it yet
what do they have wainwright at? also adam lolkennedy?
― bnw, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 16:48 (sixteen years ago) link
and the entire starting line up of the Florida Marlins?
― The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 16:52 (sixteen years ago) link
Florida, offensively at least, looks okay on paper (Hanley, Uggla, Willingham, Hermida, etc.). Their pitching, on the other hand, looks like TROUBLE.
Byun-Hyung Kim is their projected #3 guy with 6-7, 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.
― Steve Shasta, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 18:40 (sixteen years ago) link
Unless the Giants resign Bonds, PECOTA forecast they will have no player with a:
BA: >.293 OPB: >.348 SLG: >.449 OPS: >.781 HR: >15 BB: >37
that is simply disturbing.
just to compare, there are 5 Royals forecasted to have equivalent or higher OPS than the best Giant.
― Steve Shasta, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 22:21 (sixteen years ago) link
Revive, and let's compare that with the actuals:
BA: .306 (Randy Winn)OBP: .385 (Ray Durham)SLG: .445 (Bengie Molina) - advantage PECOTAOPS: .791 (Fred Lewis)HR: 16 (Bengie Molina)BB: 59 (Randy Winn)
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 17:52 (fifteen years ago) link
09PECOTA YSI? ;-)
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 17:53 (fifteen years ago) link
Shasta not understanding PECOTA shockah?
Giants sound like YOUR TEAM there
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 January 2009 17:58 (fifteen years ago) link
oh no, a Giant hit 16 HR, PECOTA BROKE!
from kevin goldstein:
"According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, (Matt) Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball."
am i freaking out already? yes i am.
― j.q higgins, Friday, 30 January 2009 17:59 (fifteen years ago) link
Oh now I get it... comparing a forecast with actuals as a measure of accuracy is "not understanding" in the magical world of Dr. Morbius.
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 18:03 (fifteen years ago) link
lol YSI? ;-)
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 18:04 (fifteen years ago) link
tis pity you don't grasp ranges of probability the way you do the brilliance of Slumdog Millionaire
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 January 2009 18:56 (fifteen years ago) link
I can grasp that the upper limits of the model/algorithim underprojected by -22%.
If you think the goal of forecasting/projections without measurable hold-out sample accuracy, you really should just stick to Spielberg toots.
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 19:02 (fifteen years ago) link
also: YSI?
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 19:08 (fifteen years ago) link
Matt Wieters is the new Alex Gordon. These guys seem to have short memories.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 19:21 (fifteen years ago) link
there's no such thing as a catching prospect
― (*ﾟーﾟ)θ L(。･＿･) °~ヾ(･ε･ *) (Steve Shasta), Friday, 30 January 2009 19:48 (fifteen years ago) link
It's more that there is no such thing as a completely can't miss prospect. So few dudes OPS in the mid .900s so predicting that a guy is a sure thing to do just that seems insane to me.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 19:51 (fifteen years ago) link
soto seemed to somewhat live up to expectations, no?
― The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:36 (fifteen years ago) link
I'm not saying rookies don't succeed (although Soto was not on the same level as Gordon/Wieters) just that a lot of can't miss All Star prospects become middle-of-the road ballplayers (*cough cough* Bobby Crosby.)
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:48 (fifteen years ago) link
soto's projection was much less generous - 273/352/470
― mad loli vamp bone (cankles), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:48 (fifteen years ago) link
when was this offbase Alex Gordon forecast? Last year's 50th %ile projection had him with about a point lower VORP than he ended up with (19.6).
― Dr Morbius, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:49 (fifteen years ago) link
His rookie year PECOTA projected him as 280/380/520 w/ GG defense IIRC and Goldstein, Silver, Baseball America, et all talked him up like David Wright Mark II. He uh did not exceed expectations.
― Alex in SF, Friday, 30 January 2009 20:51 (fifteen years ago) link
Sean Smith's CHONE, which has been shown to be just as good at projecting hitters as PECOTA, has Wieters projected at .274/.352/.439, compared to Mauer at .314/.410/.452, McCann at .297/.368/.503, and Sota at .279/.363/.474.The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.
The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.
― mad loli vamp bone (cankles), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:56 (fifteen years ago) link
*longoriacough*
― JtM Is Ruled By A Black Man (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 30 January 2009 20:56 (fifteen years ago) link
vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge
― mookieproof, Friday, 2 November 2018 20:15 (five years ago) link
go bucs
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 9 February 2021 17:44 (three years ago) link