Rolling European Politics Thread

http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/82/53/64/20140123/ob_c9759e_tumblr-mztfa6ggbz1qz6f9yo3-1280.jpg

http://wird.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/haranych3_reuters_01_12.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cfB0hSD2S6A/UuO11-TMIOI/AAAAAAAARvE/V_3hGPzeHqE/s1600/kiev.jpg

Even after the Orange Revolution, it's surreal to see places in Kyiv i know so well turned into war zones.

This is a notoriously bad Russian tabloid but the graphic is useful:

http://www.kp.ru/daily/26188.4/3076595/

You can see over time which areas have had government buildings seized (pink) and which are under attack (orange).

I read about an essay basically blaming this whole mess on the hypocrasy of the EU negotiators. In the deal offered to Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, etc, it was expected that they would fit pretty much every part of society to an EU-standard, unreasonably fast, but it didn't offer any prospects of future membership of the EU. There is a basic difference between Russia and EU: Russia is playing old-school geo-politics: Grapping as much as possible into it's sphere of influence. EU is only half-heartedly playing the same way, demanding that every one accepts EU rules, but on the other hand pretty isolationist and not in any way willing to for instance open the borders to more eastern europeans. I will try and find this essay, that is probably more useful...

what the fuck is switzerland doing

bump

Reports from the last couple of days are really scary, lots of deaths on both sides. There are videos and photos of police using semi-automatic weapons against protesters. The opposition is saying that troops in combat gear were ordered to go to Kyiv.

I don't really know that much about ukrainian internal politics, but it looks like the regional tensions start to show in a big way, with Crimea regional council talking about the possibility of seceding and asking Russia for protection, and Ivano-Frannkivsk council declaring Yanukovytch an illegal president.

Yes, both sides have used live fire now, though both are saying that the other one started it. There have been at least thirty deaths and another 300 seriously injured.

I'm finding it difficult to get a sense of how widely the violence has spread in Kyiv. During the major unrest last month it was business as usual in 99% of the city but this looks considerably worse.

The company I do business with, which is 20 km or so outside the city to the nw, has closed their office today because it was unsafe for people to come in. The first time since the protests began.

Yeah, this is extremely scary. But I must admit this time it seems to me as if the demonstrators started it. So close to an agreement on amnesty, and then it exploded.

I think it comes back to the idea the opposition is not unified. The moderate demonstrators backed the amnesty and left most of the government buildings while the hardliners dug in at the tent city in Maidan Nezalezhnosti. It's tough to see anything other than the complete overthrow of the government being acceptable to some of them.

Yeah, that's my impression too.

Got some Russian dupes on this fucking thread. The opposition is unified in opposition to the government, which is a criminal conspiracy.

Other than being against the government, how else do you imagine they're united? That's rather important when looking at short and long term solutions.

first half of this 2004 tony judt article on ukraine, turkey & the EU is quite interesting - http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/05/opinion/05judt.html

http://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/msnbc/components/slideshows/_production/ss-140220-ukraine-fighting/ss-140220-ukraine-03.nbcnews-ux-1440-1000.jpg

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/20/1392898379821/A-demonstrator-stands-on--001.jpg

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/20/1392898379821/A-demonstrator-stands-on--001.jpg

paramilitary pigs using sniper rifles against unarmed civilians deserve a special kind of hell

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/140220095454-24-ukraine-0220-horizontal-gallery.jpg

Apparently Yanukovich has agreed to going back to the 2004 constitution, a new coalition government and elections in December. No word on whether any of the opposition groups are backing it.

Also George Zimmerman has said he'll never kill again. No word on whether any of those liberals are backing him.

At last, somebody is thinking outside the box: Jean-Marie Le Pen suggests Ebola as solution to global population explosion

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/25/france-national-front-win-european-elections

Gah.

The result in Denmark is really exciting! The polls show that Venstre, the biggest right-wing party, in line to take back the government after the next election, would get three mandates, same as last time. But then the leader, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, got caught in a scandal because the party had spent 152.000 kr on clothes for him during the last election (more than 15.000 pounds) as well as buying planetickets for a vacation for his wife and son afterwards. So people said that if they lost a mandate, it would be his fault. And now the exit-polls are divided, with one showing three and one showing two. The mandate would otherwise go to the Socialist Peoples Party, part of the Green block in the parliament, whom I also voted for. Fingers crossed!

Supporting the interpretation of the European results as a rejection of austerian EU policies rather than a lurch back towards the early-middle twentieth century, Euroskeptic parties of the left did quite well in Italy and Greece. The most likely practical effect in the EU itself will be a displacement of the governing Socialist-led center-left coalition by a center-right coalition. So talk of an “earthquake” in this election will be muffled a bit by the time the aftershocks subside in Brussels. But these are perilous times for the European project.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/political-animal-a/2014_05/not_a_real_good_day_for_the_eu050507.php

to what extent do ppl feel like there is a lot of anti-immigration sentiment in these results?

The anti-immigration National Front won in France.

but i feel like everything i've read so far has been about the results being EU-skeptic as opposed to more prosaic domestic concerns?

Well, I think that the EU-sceptic victories far outstrip the polling for the immigration-skeptic parties in most countries. Like, the immigration-sceptic Danish Peoples Party got 26% of the vote in Denmark, and was by far the biggest party. But that result exceeds every poll for parliamental elections, so it's probably not a blanket vote on their political platform.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BogcqQdIYAEJXne.jpg

The National Front is anti-immigration, EU-skeptical, and racist. Mordy, surprised by your blase reaction to their win.

Blase? I speculated on the anti-semitism thread that NF winning would hasten the French-Jewish community's emigration (already at historical peak)

I hadn't read your comments there, just the last few itt

oh, yeah, i'm really just curious about what is driving this rightward swing. obv the economy has a lot to do w/ it (and immigration politics are often caught up in economic concerns) and you can't really separate issues like unemployment from EU-skepticism. it's also kinda surprising to me, particularly wrt to france which i thought was on a much more left wing swing (i guess i thought this bc hollande instead of sarkozy) but obv i was naive/wrong.

Well, Hollande is at the moment one of the most hated presidents ever in France. Also, I think these populist movements are sorta divorced from the general left-right swing in Europe. Denmark changed from a right-wing to a left-wing coalition last election, but the populists keep getting bigger. The main two old right-wing parties are both in crisis. A lot of voters for the populists want a big government with many benefits, just not for the wrong people.

Yeah, what has happened across a lot of countries is that the total of votes for established centre-left and centre-right parties has gone down and the total for populist left and right parties has gone up. People are generally feeling fed up and alienated.

Does Merkel still think her austerity philosophy for Europe is a good idea?

She still thinks it's a good idea for Germany iirc

The objections to austerity play out in different ways (FN in France, Syriza in Greece) but have a common root. There's a growing sense, even from people who are broadly pro-Europe in theory, that the current hegemony isn't working for them. In some ways immigration is only a small part of that. It's seen as much less important an issue when the economy isn't stagnating.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was Renzi demolishing Grillo. Idk, maybe Italy is just a few years ahead and everyone else will revert to the mean again soon.

wow, the FN took 42% of the vote in the 14th arrondissement in Marseille (30% overall for Marseille). & the UMP was 2nd or 1st in almost every arrondissement.

we'll see how things shake out for the UMP with the latest scandal though

sharivari otm these results are a reaction to the reserve status quo from the last elections everywhere not having worked, hence a wider shift towards the political margins

PS nobody really cares about European elections I def wouldn't bet on the results here,for instance, being in any way replicated in a general election tomorrow

Another factor in France is the massive corruption scandal affecting the mainstream centre right UMP party

http://www.france24.com/en/20140527-france-ump-party-conservatives-scandal-bygmalion-crisis-meeting-cope/

yep, that's I mentioned above obliquely

apologies, I must have skimmed over it

Venstre went from 3 to 2 mandates. There are rumours that their leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen had promised to withdraw if that happened, but that he on the night chose to carry on. Now he has called for a meeting next tuesday, and people in the party has openly come forward and said that they are trying to get enough votes to make him resign. This is really exciting. EU elections are rarely this important.

The funny thing is, that Lars Løkke became prime minister when Anders Fogh resigned to become leader of NATO, and then he lost the next election by a very small margin. Almost immediately the polls were showing that he would win the next election, as they still do, but now he might be fired before. So he will perhaps never manage to actually get elected.

Montebourg, 51, fired his first broadside in an interview with Le Monde on Saturday and followed up with a speech to a Socialist party rally the following day. In a veiled reference to President François Hollande, he said that conformism was an enemy and "my enemy is governing". "France is a free country which shouldn't be aligning itself with the obsessions of the German right," he said, urging a "just and sane resistance".

http://www.marianne.net/photo/art/default/985519-1168625.jpg

^^^ kinda disconcerting to see this graphic all over the streets (it's the cover of Marianne this week)

The EU seem to be dictatorial when it comes to budgets and issuing bonds though..

As long as Germany continues to call the shots…

European governments who think that a massive shock in the range of 12 to 20% of GDP can be absorbed with a few new loans from the European Stability Mechanism (whose total available capital is a paltry €410bn–just 3.4% of Eurozone GDP) are deluding themselves. https://t.co/i3RnVqAlxe

— Nicholas Mulder (@njtmulder) March 30, 2020

"The Dutch" is trending on twitter, so you know what that means... I think their stance is appalling, it's entirely inappropriate posturing during the worst crisis imaginable, by both Rutte and Merkel.

This otm basically: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/solidarity-members-eurozone-coronavirus-dutch-coronabond

the arguments against this are arguments against the EU

It has been argued (in the last crisis) that the half-dozen northern countries opposing fiscal expansion should split as a bloc and I can see that road being mapped out this year.

what would france do?

An interesting one for Macron, a guy who has very little ideology.

what would jupiter do?

The EU put out a statement condemning the abuse of emergency powers - that stopped short of explicitly naming Hungary. Hungary has just endorsed it.

It felt so empty without us ... So we joined the statement. #European #values are common to us all. https://t.co/0Wz8rXJduM

— Judit Varga (@JuditVarga_EU) April 2, 2020

57-year-old Romanian man, one of 40,000 flown in from Eastern Europe to work on farms during the lockdown, dead from Corona he picked up in Germany.https://t.co/hFB2hwlUTS

— Greggs Truther (@invisibleste) April 17, 2020

appalling

Big surprise in Berlin state elections, where exit polls show the Greens of mayoral candidate Bettina Jarasch outperform predictions to come out top pic.twitter.com/CVSBOUYzQC

— Philip Oltermann (@philipoltermann) September 26, 2021

Initial results indicate that Berlin voted to expropriate and socialize around 11% of the apartments in the city from mega-landlord 😭 https://t.co/IK2f1nRUyE

— nathan ma (@nthnashma) September 26, 2021

and Graz just elected a Communist mayor. https://t.co/0jaji2HSYx

— jamie k (@jkbloodtreasure) September 26, 2021

Germany's first openly trans MPs, both Greens 🇩🇪💚🏳️‍⚧️ https://t.co/IYMYyLzUFy

— Ross Greer (@Ross_Greer) September 26, 2021

The SPD has scored a very modest success in this election, if one can even call it that. And it is NOT some kind of youthful Corbyn-surge but a lurch towards SPD of older ex-Merkel voters. Old voters, bulk of electorate, are decisive in explaining small gains. https://t.co/CNtAKpGmYk

— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) September 26, 2021

You are a refugee, desperate, on a stranded boat on the Mediterranean. Do you let yourself and your family drown or starve or die of thirst, or do you try to steer the boat - and face 146 years in prison? https://t.co/I6XXhCbEFc

— James B (@piercepenniless) September 29, 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/22/italian-election-italy-turns-to-the-right-with-fdis-georgia-meloni.html

Wonder if the EU will survive the recession we're going into.

We are staring down the first global recession not led by US since World War II. It’s near impossible US doesn’t follow and it’s nearly certain we are making it worse. https://t.co/YWEvsazHtl

— Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) September 22, 2022

I wrote for @thenation about the Italian election, how rising energy prices could upset the far right’s agenda in government, and the surprising (partial) recovery or the Five Star Movement https://t.co/bCSAZC1zD5

— David Broder (@broderly) September 22, 2022

Meloni will call the pope a globalist and cut off the church like how Florida taxed Disney… then the pope will make a Netflix deal where he’s interviewed by Michelle Obama who will ask if there will ever be a woman pope and the pope will respond “stranger things have happened”

— Don Hughes (@getfiscal) September 26, 2022

Deutsche Bank is warning of German deindustrialization as a result of the gas crisis. Unlike in the US or UK, there is no world leading financial, service or digital sector to fall back on. The gas question is the question of the future of this economy. pic.twitter.com/AQFOKY92WC

— Isabella M. Weber (@IsabellaMWeber) October 17, 2022