Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

re pervasive accusations that AIPAC is behind the Iran sanctions legislation:

Despite growing support in the Senate for Iran sanctions legislation, Democratic leaders have yet to feel insurmountable pressure to bring the measure to the floor.

One major reason: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is mostly keeping quiet.

The powerful pro-Israel lobby has not engaged in a shoe-leather lobbying campaign to woo wayward senators and push Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to schedule a vote on the bill, according to several key senators and aides. While the group supports the bill — authored by Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) — it is not yet putting its political muscle behind a push for an immediate vote.

“I don’t know where AIPAC is. I haven’t talked to anybody,” said Senate Armed Services Chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.), who opposes any vote for additional sanctions at this time.

As of now, the Menendez-Kirk bill has 59 public supporters, including 43 of 45 Senate Republicans. But dozens of Democrats remain publicly undecided on the bill and seem unlikely to cross the Obama administration and openly back the legislation at this time. And AIPAC isn’t yet twisting Democratic arms.

A number of senators on both sides of the sanctions debate said they’d heard little from AIPAC on the issue, suggesting that wavering lawmakers are feeling little pressure from the group. With its clout on Capitol Hill and ties to deep-pocketed Jewish donors, the group’s muscle could be enough to change the political calculation over how to proceed on the contentious issue.

“I don’t know what they’re doing,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), a leading defense hawk and strong supporter of getting a vote on the bill.

...California Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Jewish Democrat, said she’s met with AIPAC “many times” on the issue of Iran. But asked if the group had been pressing her to support the Iran sanctions measure, she replied “not at all.”

“They respect my position, which is that sanctions are totally appropriate if this fails,” she said, referring to the diplomatic talks.

But other senators have not yet heard from the group and indicated they were entirely unaware of AIPAC’s activities on the Hill.

“I really have not talked to AIPAC about it,” said Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland, a Jewish liberal and one of the few Senate Democrats publicly backing the Kirk-Menendez legislation.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman’s plan to transfer jurisdiction of some Israeli Arab towns, with their approximately 300,000 residents, to a future Palestinian state has the support of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, according to senior officials in Likud-Beytenu quoted by Maariv Friday. There was no confirmation of the report.

Unnamed official sources told the newspaper that Netanyahu has concluded that, in the event of an agreement with the Palestinians, the demographic factor must be taken into consideration, which would mean amending the borders to include some Israeli Arab towns in the new Palestinian state as Israel would include some West Bank Jewish settlements. The officials said that, during negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in recent months, Livni brought up the names of specific towns and villages to be included in the Palestinian state.

I'm not a huge fan of the idea, but mondopeeps screaming about ethnic cleansing are insane. If it's ethnic cleansing to force Palestinians to belong to the Palestinian state than it's certainly ethnic cleansing to force settlers to move (and also raises the question of why the world needs a Palestinian state if the Palestinians don't want to live there).

it's certainly ethnic cleansing to force settlers to move

I lose your analogy a bit here. I'm not sure how a view regarding which state long-time Palestinian residents should be a part of, is analagous to how we should analyze recent non-Palestinian settlers in that area.

Also, just as some Jews may not want to live in Israel, perhaps some Palestinians want to stay in Israel

American Jews not wanting to live in Israel should not be used as a reason to say there's no need for Israel, similiarly with Palestinians.

I just mean that if redrawing the border is ethnic cleansing (as I've seen claimed) then forcing someone to actually uproot their home and move bc of their ethnicity is the same. Re the second point, America doesn't share a border w/ Israel, but yr right I was being a little cheeky about the fact that plenty of Palestinians would prefer to live in Israel than in a future Palestinian State.

I just mean that if redrawing the border is ethnic cleansing (as I've seen claimed) then forcing someone to actually uproot their home and move bc of their ethnicity is the same.

I do not agree that these are the same

it's more of an a fortiori than an equivalence

hey what if jan brewer decided a bunch of heavily hispanic border towns were just gonna be mexico now, haha right??

i guess the question is whether those israeli arabs have any say in having their citizenship stripped, "transfer of jurisdiction" is pretty vague.

plus according to that quote it is "in the event of an agreement with the Palestinians" which means never i take it. so this is trolling?

iranian invitation revoked

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/01/20/united_nations_invites_iran_to_syria_peace_talks_threatens_geneva_summit.html

http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/20/world/syria-torture-photos-amanpour/

(CNN) -- A team of internationally renowned war crimes prosecutors and forensic experts has found "direct evidence" of "systematic torture and killing" by the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, the lawyers on the team say in a new report.

Their report, based on thousands of photographs of dead bodies of alleged detainees killed in Syrian government custody, would stand up in an international criminal tribunal, the group says.

CNN's "Amanpour" was given the report in a joint exclusive with The Guardian newspaper.

"This is a smoking gun," said David Crane, one of the report's authors. "Any prosecutor would like this kind of evidence -- the photos and the process. This is direct evidence of the regime's killing machine."

near the end of that piece:

Syria is not a member of the International Criminal Court. The only way the court could prosecute someone from Syria would be through a referral from the United Nations Security Council.
Because of Russia's support for the Assad regime, and because it has veto power on the council, such a referral seems unlikely, at least for the time being.

this is so fucked: http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116241/burma-2014-countryside-concentration-camps

(i know it doesn't really fit the purvey of this thread but idk where we're talking about myanmar if anywhere?)

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/01/28/267836867/a-palestinian-explains-why-he-worked-as-an-israeli-informant

this profile is nuts:
http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=1713

Yay Tunisia on their new constitution. Everything else here is too depressing and complicated.

yay tunisia :)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/30/how-scarlett-johansson-got-mired-in-one-of-the-middle-easts-touchiest-controversies/?hpid=z4

"touchy"

obv this whole "controversy" just made me like scarlett more

obdsv

also i love my sodastream. we use it every day. i haven't bought seltzer in years.

a disturbing amount of my twitter feed did agree that obv scarjo is a war criminal, clearly anyone can see that, etc this past week

http://africaindc.wordpress.com/2014/02/02/ethiopian-retail-establishments-protest-israeli-treatment-of-africans/

a January 22 protest march in front of the Embassy of Israel by diaspora Eritreans calling on Israel to respect the rights of African refugees.

protest took place in dc

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/08/iran-says-warships-headed-close-to-us-borders/5316199/

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iranian warships dispatched to the Atlantic Ocean will travel close to U.S. maritime borders for the first time, a senior Iranian naval commander said Saturday.

The commander of Iran's Northern Navy Fleet, Admiral Afshin Rezayee Haddad, said the vessels have already entered the Atlantic Ocean via waters near South Africa, the official IRNA news agency reported.

The fleet, consisting of a destroyer and a helicopter-carrying supply ship, began its voyage last month from the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. The ships, carrying some 30 navy academy cadets for training along with their regular crews, are on a three-month mission.

The voyage comes amid an ongoing push by Iran to demonstrate its ability to project power across the Middle East and beyond.

IRNA quoted Haddad as saying the fleet is approaching U.S. maritime borders for the first time. The Islamic Republic considers the move as a response to U.S. naval deployments near its own coastlines. The U.S. Navy's 5th fleet is based in Bahrain, just across the Persian Gulf.

What thread should this go on?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/lynching-of-christian-man-by-muslims-is-sign-of-chaos-in-central-african-republic/2014/02/09/ecd02e54-91d5-11e3-b3f7-f5107432ca45_story.html?hpid=z1

Pumandele’s body was taken inside his small house. His father, Gilbert, seemed confused by his son’s unexpected demise. “He’s a civilian,” he said. “He doesn’t own a gun. He doesn’t carry a knife. Why? Why?”

It was a question no one in the crowds outside could answer. They possessed only anger and blame. The war had reached their home. Pumandele, they said, was the first in their community to be killed by the sectarian violence.

Some blamed the roughly 6,500 French and African soldiers, authorized by the U.N. Security Council, for being unable to protect their community. Others blamed the nation’s politicians, whose government collapsed after a coup in March by Muslim Seleka rebels, who tormented the majority-Christian population. That prompted the rise of the anti-Balaka, Christian vigilantes who are targeting Muslims.

“We want PK5 to be completely disarmed,” said Kisito Ngoni, 38, a neighbor.

“Let’s take his body to the United Nations office,” suggested Aime Neka, 32, Pumandele’s uncle. “We’ll demonstrate there until they find a solution to the violence

if i lived in israel i'd vote for bennett; dude is money:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/opinion/putting-all-israelis-to-work.html

http://www.palestine-studies.org/files/Yarmouk%20Refugee%20Camp/BitariFinal.pdf

^ btw, this article is an amazing read and i highly recommend

if this is true, holy fuck:
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Egyptian-reports-highlight-alleged-Morsi-al-Qaida-cooperation-340556

But this too, from the NY Times:

QUOTATION OF THE DAY
"This is a dangerous decision. It validates an attack not just on me and my two colleagues, but on freedom of speech across Egypt."
PETER GRESTE, a journalist for Al Jazeera English, imprisoned under a widening crackdown by Egypt's government that has ensnared scores of reporters, bloggers and teachers.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26323638

Egypt's government has apparently resigned.

well.

"The country is facing huge dangers. It is time we stood together to protect it and help it get out of this narrow tunnel," he added.

"This is neither the time for demands by public workers nor the time for personal interests, but the time for us to put our country's interests above all others."

u'd think the country's interest would include a stable government for the 2 months until elections

Do you think Al-Sisi cares about that?

from that BBC article

The cabinet's decision to submit its resignation to interim President Adly Mansour was made after a 30-minute meeting on Monday attended by Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, defence minister and first deputy prime minister.

The field marshal is widely expected to announce soon that he will step down from both posts and run for president.

According to the new constitution approved in January, an election must take place by mid-April. Correspondents say Field Marshal Sisi would be likely to win, given his popularity and the lack of any serious rivals.

http://www.mrdrybones.com/blog/D14223_2.gif

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-apWroNK5OrA/Uwpd-0j7b3I/AAAAAAAAce8/IQ8Ei5FeYuk/s1600/pew+enemy2.jpg

Surprised to see Poland so low.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhU20FgCAAAiVyN.jpg

lolololol

Israeli forces have repeatedly violated their obligations under international human rights law by using excessive force to stifle dissent and freedom of expression, resulting in a pattern of unlawful killings and injuries to civilians. They do so with virtual impunity due to the authorities’ failure to conduct thorough investigations. This report focuses on the use of excessive force in the West Bank since the beginning of 2011. It includes cases of killings and injuries of Palestinian civilians in the context of protests against Israel’s continuing military occupation of the Palestinian territories, illegal Israeli settlements and the fence/wall.

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/MDE15/002/2014/en

According to Amnesty International’s research, he was among the first of at least 22 Palestinian civilians to be killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank in 2013, four of whom were children.

Obviously every death is unfortunate, a tragedy, but let's be clear what kind of numbers we're discussing here.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2014/03/skyshield/

let's be clear what kind of numbers we're discussing here.

― Mordy , Friday, February 28, 2014 11:00 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

what is 22 being opposed to here

i'm sure i'll get in trouble for answering that question, but --

i actually apologized for that callous comment on the posts very much in character thread. i guess my pt was that it actually seems like a very low number to me considering the circumstances, especially compared to neighboring countries + other western countries. eg 7,818 civilians killed in Iraq in 2013, 1,319 in Afghanistan, Syria numbers so high they are no longer counting, 11 people killed in the Turkish protests, dozens dead in Ukraine in the recent bout, not to mention the numerous fatalities of the US drone wars in Pakistan, Yemen, Libya, etc. Law enforcement in the United States killed 309 ppl in 2013. Re Israel directly, in 2013 6 Israelis were killed (5 of them in the West Bank) and 9 Gazans were killed by the IDF. Essentially in looking at an occupation where protests often turn violent (rock throwings, firebombings, etc) + compared to other locations of unrest, it just struck me as pretty hysterical language (Amnesty International calling for all arms to be cut off to Israel) for what is comparably a historically + politically very low number. This is especially when compared to historical casualty numbers between Israel + Palestine in previous years which far surpassed 22 deaths (you don't even need to look back to the Second Intifada to see vastly larger numbers).

http://news.yahoo.com/israel-intercepts-ship-transporting-iranian-weapons-004328955.html

Why would Syrian-made weapons be sent to Iran to then be ferried to Gaza?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/world/middleeast/syria.html

http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/03/12/world/SYRIA/SYRIA-superJumbo.jpg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/notorious-lebanese-militant-reported-killed-in-airstrike-outside-syrian-capital/2015/12/20/07153e67-ed03-4fba-8bbd-a8936ef70422_story.html

A notorious Lebanese militant leader, viewed by the United States and Israel as a terrorist and deeply involved in the Syrian civil war, was killed late Saturday in an airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus.

Suspicion for the attack, which killed Samir Kuntar and at least eight others affiliated with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, immediately fell on Israel. Kuntar was released by Israel in 2008 after he spent three decades in prison for his role in the killing of three Israelis, including a 4-year-old girl and her father.

Hezbollah, which is embroiled in the Syrian war in support of the regime, said it would take revenge on Israel for Kuntar’s death. A few hours later, three rockets were fired from southern Lebanon into northern Israel, sending residents in towns along the border into bomb shelters. There were no reports of casualties, and the Israeli military said it responded with targeted artillery fire at sites in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli military said in a statement that it “holds the Lebanese Army responsible for attacks emanating from its territory.”

In Lebanon, Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV station confirmed Kuntar’s death, reporting early Sunday that four Israeli missiles had struck a residential building in Jaramana, just outside Damascus, the Syrian capital.

on that note: http://imgur.com/Ys1nuCs

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/19/un-resolution-syria-creates-framework-yawning-gaps-assad

The resolution creates a framework, but one that leaves yawning gaps between its timbers. It is not clear whether the regime will show up to the January talks brokered by the UN special envoy, Staffan di Mistura, though Damascus will presumably come under strong pressure from Moscow and Tehran to attend.

There are also a lot of questions of the relationship between the Riyadh opposition and the balance of forces inside rebel-held territory. If the disconnect is too great, the talks will lead nowhere and will not bring a ceasefire. But inclusivity brings with it a cost.

Neither the protagonists nor their international sponsors agree on the list of terrorist groups to be excluded. There is consensus on Islamic State (now known to almost all parties by the Arabic acronym Daesh), and near-consensus on the al-Nusrah Front. After that, agreement breaks down. And the discord was evident from the contrasting tone of the remarks from John Kerry and Sergei Lavrov after the resolution was passed. Russia is currently bombing groups and communities supported by the west.

Jordan was given the job of distinguishing between the acceptable and unacceptable but has essentially passed the buck, simply collating the differing views of the outside powers.

i wonder if hezbollah could survive nasrallah's assassination at this point - the whole party seems tenuous atm.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ex-wife-of-Lebanese-terrorist-Samir-Kuntar-says-his-death-was-justified-438055

Kuntar's ex-wife believes that regardless of who killed him, her ex-husband's murder was justified because his intention was not to fight against Israel but to harm Syrians and the Palestinian people.

"Kuntar and Hezbollah are on the Arab land of Syria not in order to fight Israel, the Zionist enemy, or any aggression," she said in an interview with the Saudi al-Arabia Network.

"They are there to fight the Syrian people and the Palestinian people. We show no solidarity with murderers. Murders should be killed," she added.

I mean one would hope she'd condemn him for murdering a family including 2 young children (the horrific details can be read on the wiki page) but you can only expect so much.

(trigger warning: i have a strong tolerance for such things and i felt nauseated reading about what he did)

i can't believe they broadcast this kind of filth on al-j - essentially advocating for genocide against alawites

that is kind of unbelievable. are those polls a plausible reflection of wider sunni sentiment?

2012 tales of Sunni hatred of Alawites

If the fighters seeking to oust Mr. Assad sometimes portray their battle as a struggle for democracy, the Sunni Muslim children of the Zaatari camp tell a much uglier story of sectarian revenge. Asked for their own views of the grown-up battle that drove them from their homes, child after child brought up their hatred of the Alawites and a thirst for revenge. Children as young as 10 or 11 vowed never to play with Syrian Alawite children or even pledged to kill them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/04/world/middleeast/in-syrian-conflict-children-speak-of-revenge-against-alawites.html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35192109

For IS the loss of Ramadi was inevitable almost from the start but permanent control was probably not their goal. Instead, IS has repeatedly used Ramadi to distract the ISF from attacking the Islamic State's stronghold in Mosul, 450km (280 miles) to the north.....More likely, the slow preparatory phases of the battle for Mosul will now unfold in the first half of 2016.
First, IS' next defensive bulwarks will be ground down - the oil refining hub Qayyarah and other Tigris River Valley towns south of Mosul.
Then the city will be slowly encircled in the summer and air strikes will intensify on IS leadership and logistical targets. Then the assault will begin once the summer heat dies down in the autumn of 2016.

Wow, not till Autumn 2016...

new thread: Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!