Rolling European Politics Thread

There was a Rolling European Politics thread for 2011, but couldn't find anything since then.

What are good sources for stories about European Issues?

there's this

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/19/bp-azerbaijan-100bn-dollars-gas-deal/print

any way around russia.....

Four seconds, damn, that was fast...

But yeah, the problem with Azerbaijan is emblematic. Caucasus is among the most vital geo-political areas for Europe, and Armenia has already chosen side for Russia, Georgia is fiercely anti-russian but has massive problems of it's own, and Azerbaijan is a dictatorship, in heated struggle with Armenia. It's a mess. Also, would a pipe around Ukraine be able to help that country with it's energy-problems, or would they just lose out on transport-money on the Russia->EU stuff.

Man, I really don't know, but with Ukraine choosing just a few days ago, it reignited my interest in it all.

It's tough. The Russian position has traditionally been that if you don't have a special relationship with the country, you can't expect special favours. Ukraine was paying way below market rate for gas until Tymoshenko (who made her fortune stealing Russian gas) made a big political point of going to Moscow and demanding an end to what she claimed were unacceptable long-term deals. Russia said 'fine, pay the same as everyone else then'. The current crisis was prompted in part by Naftogaz Ukrainy owing Gazprom about €1bn.

There's a huge amount of dishonesty (both in terms of political disingenuousness and straight corruption) where energy is concerned in Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian position is transparently coercive. I have a huge amount of sympathy for Moldova which is in a similar situation through no fault of its own.

As a side issue, I would be a little surprised if the long game for Ukraine was full EU membership. Other accession countries like Slovakia and Bulgaria have just about managed to polish up their political and financial classes to give the appearance of transparency but corruption is so endemic in Ukraine it is hard to see any real will to opening the country up to more external scrutiny emerging. A favoured nation status that allowed privileged access to European markets while maintaining ties with Russia looks about as far as it might go and I think the Kremlin could probably live with that if it stopped being so pig-headed.

Well, I read up on a background article in my Danish newspaper, which claimed that Ukraine pay the highest price for gas in Europe. However, they do get paid for transportation costs on gas run through Ukraine on it's way from Russia to Central Europe, which somewhat makes up for it. However, then their situation is that they on the one hand is completely dependant on Russian gas, but has tried to make up for it by relying on the rest of Europe also relying on Russian gas. So if the gasline will be made from Azerbaidjan, then Ukraine might be hit even more than Russia... All in all, I do wonder how sincere Europe actually are about including another massive eastern european nation in our integrated economy.

Yes, when Ukraine cancelled their historical contracts they signed a new one that pegged the price of gas to oil. As the price of oil has shot up in the last few years, they pay more than they initially anticipated. It fluctuates at around $400 while Belarus, which still gets subsidised gas, pays about $160.

I agree that it's hard to see the EU giving full membership.

Kyiv has really kicked off now. It's stating the obvious but the degree to which the country is divided - politically, economically, linguistically and culturally - can't be overestimated. It sometimes gets lost (or is deliberately not stated) in the news reports that the pro-EU, nationalist politicians have a power base that doesn't extend much further than the West of the country and the rest is either affiliated more with Russia or caught in the middle.

On one side you have a lot of people whose recent forefathers would often have been Polish, who speak a language largely incomprehensible to Russians (and often pretend not to understand Russian), who carry understandable grievances around the holodomor and who want the freedom of movement the EU would bring. On the other you have people whose parents and grandparents would have identified as Russian, who speak Russian, who carry understandable grievances about Ukrainian nationalists siding with the Nazis in WW2 and who rely on commercial ties with their neighbour to the East.

On one hand, it doesn't seem sustainable. On the other, these aren't the people who will be making the decisions, really. Whatever public pressure is brought to bear, the outcome will be the one that suits the strongest pack of oligarchs and that's probably no major changes and uneasy political and financial stagnation.

I don't know. I was a bit surprised at the news I read about this today. That there was demonstrations in the east as well, that the opposition was interviewed on oligarch-owned tv. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/02/world/europe/thousands-of-protesters-in-ukraine-demand-leaders-resignation.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20131202&_r=0 It might not be the most nuanced piece, but this is interesting: Unlike the protests of 2004, which focused on installing a particular leader, the current protests stem from the thwarted ambitions of millions of Ukrainians who view integration with Europe as a step toward eliminating rampant corruption, overhauling the justice system and generally improving the standard of living. I hadn't thought of it that way, that the people might see Europe as a way to combat the oligarchs. From what I've heard of Rumania and Bulgaria, they might be dissapointed yet again, though...

The talk of 'thousands' protesting in Dnipropetrovsk is definitely interesting. The spirit of the Orange Revolution wouldn't have taken off in the same way without a bipartisan hatred of oligarchs (which is why it fell so hard when it turned out to be so corrupt) and I can see this protest transcending political and cultural ties in a limited way too with that as one of the main drivers.

At the same time, there has been nothing much going on in Odessa or Donetsk. Klitschko is an interesting wild card here. I don't know enough about his backers to be able to assess whether he represents a break from politics as usual.

Has anyone read about the Russian response? I've only seen that Putin said it was 'more a progrom than a revolution', but this is not a good situation for them. The euraisian customs-union is pretty much dead at this point, right?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/29/volgograd-train-station-russia-explosion

Thirteen dead in a suicide bombing in Volgograd. Same city as the bus bombing earlier this year. It was assumed at the time that the woman who blew up the bus was on route to Moscow and detonated it early in a panic about security checks but it looks like they are choosing softer targets now.

Yeah. My paper said it was about using the attention because of Sochi.

Jesus, fifteen more dead in a bus explosion in Vologograd today.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/30/russia-second-explosion-volgograd

I caught up with some broadly pro-EU, anti-Yanukovich contacts over from Kiev today and they were not particularly positive about how things are going to turn out over the next few weeks. Most of the reporting identifies a clear division between "the government" and "the opposition" but the reality is a lot more complex than that. Euromaidan is not aligned with the formal opposition - it's its own group with its own set of agendas and no clear leadership structure to negotiate with.

Its quite conceivable that a compromise position could be found with the mainstream political opposition but there is absolutely no guarantee that Euromaidan would back it. There's a very strong probability that they would not settle for anything less than the removal of Yanukovich which is highly unlikely to ever be on the table. For all the talk of a negotiated settlement, it's difficult to see a quick end. People are already talking about comparisons with Northern Ireland.

is ukraine going to cleave in two along the dnieper eventually

I don't think that's impossible. Ukraine without the East and Crimea would be substantially poorer, though, and more heavily reliant on agriculture (rather than heavy industry, mining and tourism as well). Culturally and politically it might make a certain amount of sense but economically it would be really tough.

How much would EU-money for the agriculture help with that?

I don't know, to be honest. It has definitely helped Poland (to the tune of about 4bn Euro a year) but the Ukrainian economy is in such bad shape as it is, i'm not sure it would make that much of a difference.

Also, another major problem: Where on earth would 'west-ukraine' get the energy they need? No way would Russia just give them the gas they need.

They might do if any division was seen as otherwise favourable.

I don't know. It's so messy. Even in the Russian-dominated cities out East you'd still have a lot of people who'd identify as Ukrainian and who wouldn't necessarily want to change that or move West. Despite all the schisms, i'd like to think it's salvageable but the Ukrainian political class, for a variety of reasons, doesn't seem capable of addressing any of the issues that could pull the country together (fixing the economy, rooting out corruption and special interests, etc, etc).

http://www.heraldo.es/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2014/01/30/_ucranaoo_33d9e0dc.jpg

http://www.latviannews.lv/userfiles/else/b/1390484991_20140123154951.jpg

http://wird.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Zurab_Dzhavakhadze_01_12-1024x682.jpg

http://25.media.tumblr.com/66440c8769840eae9b1da7fca7860a09/tumblr_mztfa6GGBZ1qz6f9yo1_1280.jpg

http://img.over-blog-kiwi.com/0/82/53/64/20140123/ob_c9759e_tumblr-mztfa6ggbz1qz6f9yo3-1280.jpg

http://wird.com.ua/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/haranych3_reuters_01_12.jpg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cfB0hSD2S6A/UuO11-TMIOI/AAAAAAAARvE/V_3hGPzeHqE/s1600/kiev.jpg

Even after the Orange Revolution, it's surreal to see places in Kyiv i know so well turned into war zones.

This is a notoriously bad Russian tabloid but the graphic is useful:

http://www.kp.ru/daily/26188.4/3076595/

You can see over time which areas have had government buildings seized (pink) and which are under attack (orange).

I read about an essay basically blaming this whole mess on the hypocrasy of the EU negotiators. In the deal offered to Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, etc, it was expected that they would fit pretty much every part of society to an EU-standard, unreasonably fast, but it didn't offer any prospects of future membership of the EU. There is a basic difference between Russia and EU: Russia is playing old-school geo-politics: Grapping as much as possible into it's sphere of influence. EU is only half-heartedly playing the same way, demanding that every one accepts EU rules, but on the other hand pretty isolationist and not in any way willing to for instance open the borders to more eastern europeans. I will try and find this essay, that is probably more useful...

what the fuck is switzerland doing

bump

Reports from the last couple of days are really scary, lots of deaths on both sides. There are videos and photos of police using semi-automatic weapons against protesters. The opposition is saying that troops in combat gear were ordered to go to Kyiv.

I don't really know that much about ukrainian internal politics, but it looks like the regional tensions start to show in a big way, with Crimea regional council talking about the possibility of seceding and asking Russia for protection, and Ivano-Frannkivsk council declaring Yanukovytch an illegal president.

Yes, both sides have used live fire now, though both are saying that the other one started it. There have been at least thirty deaths and another 300 seriously injured.

I'm finding it difficult to get a sense of how widely the violence has spread in Kyiv. During the major unrest last month it was business as usual in 99% of the city but this looks considerably worse.

The company I do business with, which is 20 km or so outside the city to the nw, has closed their office today because it was unsafe for people to come in. The first time since the protests began.

Yeah, this is extremely scary. But I must admit this time it seems to me as if the demonstrators started it. So close to an agreement on amnesty, and then it exploded.

I think it comes back to the idea the opposition is not unified. The moderate demonstrators backed the amnesty and left most of the government buildings while the hardliners dug in at the tent city in Maidan Nezalezhnosti. It's tough to see anything other than the complete overthrow of the government being acceptable to some of them.

Yeah, that's my impression too.

Got some Russian dupes on this fucking thread. The opposition is unified in opposition to the government, which is a criminal conspiracy.

Other than being against the government, how else do you imagine they're united? That's rather important when looking at short and long term solutions.

first half of this 2004 tony judt article on ukraine, turkey & the EU is quite interesting - http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/05/opinion/05judt.html

http://media4.s-nbcnews.com/j/msnbc/components/slideshows/_production/ss-140220-ukraine-fighting/ss-140220-ukraine-03.nbcnews-ux-1440-1000.jpg

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/20/1392898379821/A-demonstrator-stands-on--001.jpg

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/2/20/1392898379821/A-demonstrator-stands-on--001.jpg

paramilitary pigs using sniper rifles against unarmed civilians deserve a special kind of hell

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets/140220095454-24-ukraine-0220-horizontal-gallery.jpg

Apparently Yanukovich has agreed to going back to the 2004 constitution, a new coalition government and elections in December. No word on whether any of the opposition groups are backing it.

Also George Zimmerman has said he'll never kill again. No word on whether any of those liberals are backing him.

What does we're done for mean? I'd give the EU about ten years the way it's going. Solutions and new ways will need to be looked at.

We're done for means: having a common market and currency gives Portugal some slight advantages that helps it keep afloat on the international market (also: EU subsidies). I share your pessimism regarding the EU but unless there's some radical change to the system internationally - not ruling this out - Portugal without EU membership is in deep deep trouble.

ogmor, I think there *is* a shortage right now, the result of devastating forest fires two years ago. But in the long run it's still one of our biggest exports.

I have been told that there has been some good work done in the tech sector, but it's difficult for me to disassociate this from the start-up enterpeneurship culture that was running wild during the crisis years, and which mostly amounted to some rich kids getting to show off while "employing" ppl who were basically drifting from unpaid internship to unpaid internship. I still have friends in associated industries who regularly get paid late, or not at all. Plus, you know, all the usual issues with Silicon Valley tech-utopianism: the Web Summit has that stench all over it, pretty funny to remember they had Ja Rule over there shortly pre-Fyre Festival. This year they tried to get Marine Le Pen before the obvious predictable backlash put the kibosh on that.

At any rate I'd say support for this particular sector has been a constant between the right-wing govt we previously had and the current one: it's a good chance to blabber about Supporting Innovation and get pictures taken with celebrities. For the right-wingers it also had the advantage of seeming like a private sector solution to the crisis; a lot of "make your own app!" type advice given out to unemployed graduates.

the EU-Mercosur trade deal not looking like such a great piece of business right now

looks like manu and leo agree

& Bolsonaro responds by saying that EU concerns "evoke a colonialist mentality".
Post-colonialism: every nation must be free to destroy its own natural resources.

Nothing says post-colonial like a bunch of white people burning indigenous communities out of their homes.

layers and layers of colonizers

Has the EU-Mercorsur deal been cancelled or is it all just liberals shouting into the void again?

good martin sandbu article in the FT here. Trump’s trade war, China slowdown and Brexit all pose a serious threat to the stability of the euro (and therefore europe?). It’s in Germany’s hands, but will depend on a politics ability to wean themselves off a historical policy of running a trade surplus, which does no one, least of all other eurozone countries, but including themselves, any favours.

Paywalled tho so i put it in a pinboard note here.

goes well with this accompaniment to adam tooze’s recent survey of the past four decades or so of German politics in the LRB.

As a semi-hegemonic state within the eurozone, it’s pretty worrying that the political economy of Germany is so dysfunctional.

spanish supreme court have decided franco's getting his grave downsized, you love to see it

just found out meades did a franco building doc last month that I missed, perfect!

it was good and scary and angry

Supreme Courts are on fire today.

yeah everything I know about the valley of the fallen makes it seem like a nightmare

i'd prefer desecrated but downsized will do for now i s'pose

Yeah, good day for Supreme Courts. I need to see that doc.

https://www.politico.eu/article/jan-jambon-flemish-parties-toughen-migration-stance-in-coalition-agreement/

Flemish parties toughen migration stance in coalition agreement
Flemish nationalist Jan Jambon announced the three-party deal Monday.

In the UK there are gammons, in Belgium there is Jambon itself.

Great that we all learned the right lessons from the last crisis and that the EU is showing skeptics what for by pulling together in solidarity!

https://www.politico.eu/article/virtual-summit-real-acrimony-eu-leaders-clash-over-corona-bonds/?fbclid=IwAR1ewCarJ_y_3h2oiCiE1a0GIooHMbm4wINPxrhQSOXwIM4Si7h80dxPM_g

This is playing with fire. Can't see the EU surviving this.

It'll survive it, but it's another idiotically selfish move that's bound to decrease its life expectancy in the long run.

Unlike you to be so positive Pom.

But yes it won't collapse overnight, but it gives the anti-EU forces more ammunition. All little steps along the way.

seems that germany is going to be the death of it

Next Bundestag election will be held some time next year. A proper shift to the left is still possible, but I'm not exactly getting my hopes up.

Merkel seemed to be the only thing keeping the fascists at bay, so I'm worried.

I've said before here that I can't imagine Portugal ever going full euroskeptic, despite having been dealt a very rough hand during the last crisis, because the prospects of economic survival outside the EU are just so grim. But if this carries on that just might do it.

Same in Romania, but we're expendable anyway.

Hungarian parliament has made Orban dictator

Hungarian Parliament passes bill that gives PM Orbán unlimited power & proclaims:

- State of emergency w/o time limit
- Rule by decree
- Parliament suspended
- No elections
- Spreading fake news + rumors: up to 5 yrs in prison
- Leaving quarantine: up to 8 yrs in prison#COVID19 pic.twitter.com/5ScZCbF4yv

— Balazs Csekö (@balazscseko) March 30, 2020

We briefly touched on this in the outbreak thread. The EU is afraid of seeming dictatorial and encroaching on the autonomy of its member states, at the risk of condoning a bona fide fascist dictatorship. This is simply not a risk worth taking, even if the usual suspects – starting with Poland – will undoubtedly side with Orbán in order to safeguard their own Blut und Boden bullshit.

The EU seem to be dictatorial when it comes to budgets and issuing bonds though..

As long as Germany continues to call the shots…

European governments who think that a massive shock in the range of 12 to 20% of GDP can be absorbed with a few new loans from the European Stability Mechanism (whose total available capital is a paltry €410bn–just 3.4% of Eurozone GDP) are deluding themselves. https://t.co/i3RnVqAlxe

— Nicholas Mulder (@njtmulder) March 30, 2020

"The Dutch" is trending on twitter, so you know what that means... I think their stance is appalling, it's entirely inappropriate posturing during the worst crisis imaginable, by both Rutte and Merkel.

This otm basically: https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/31/solidarity-members-eurozone-coronavirus-dutch-coronabond

the arguments against this are arguments against the EU

It has been argued (in the last crisis) that the half-dozen northern countries opposing fiscal expansion should split as a bloc and I can see that road being mapped out this year.

what would france do?

An interesting one for Macron, a guy who has very little ideology.

what would jupiter do?

The EU put out a statement condemning the abuse of emergency powers - that stopped short of explicitly naming Hungary. Hungary has just endorsed it.

It felt so empty without us ... So we joined the statement. #European #values are common to us all. https://t.co/0Wz8rXJduM

— Judit Varga (@JuditVarga_EU) April 2, 2020

57-year-old Romanian man, one of 40,000 flown in from Eastern Europe to work on farms during the lockdown, dead from Corona he picked up in Germany.https://t.co/hFB2hwlUTS

— Greggs Truther (@invisibleste) April 17, 2020

appalling

Big surprise in Berlin state elections, where exit polls show the Greens of mayoral candidate Bettina Jarasch outperform predictions to come out top pic.twitter.com/CVSBOUYzQC

— Philip Oltermann (@philipoltermann) September 26, 2021

Initial results indicate that Berlin voted to expropriate and socialize around 11% of the apartments in the city from mega-landlord 😭 https://t.co/IK2f1nRUyE

— nathan ma (@nthnashma) September 26, 2021

and Graz just elected a Communist mayor. https://t.co/0jaji2HSYx

— jamie k (@jkbloodtreasure) September 26, 2021

Germany's first openly trans MPs, both Greens 🇩🇪💚🏳️‍⚧️ https://t.co/IYMYyLzUFy

— Ross Greer (@Ross_Greer) September 26, 2021

The SPD has scored a very modest success in this election, if one can even call it that. And it is NOT some kind of youthful Corbyn-surge but a lurch towards SPD of older ex-Merkel voters. Old voters, bulk of electorate, are decisive in explaining small gains. https://t.co/CNtAKpGmYk

— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) September 26, 2021

You are a refugee, desperate, on a stranded boat on the Mediterranean. Do you let yourself and your family drown or starve or die of thirst, or do you try to steer the boat - and face 146 years in prison? https://t.co/I6XXhCbEFc

— James B (@piercepenniless) September 29, 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/09/22/italian-election-italy-turns-to-the-right-with-fdis-georgia-meloni.html

Wonder if the EU will survive the recession we're going into.

We are staring down the first global recession not led by US since World War II. It’s near impossible US doesn’t follow and it’s nearly certain we are making it worse. https://t.co/YWEvsazHtl

— Claudia Sahm (@Claudia_Sahm) September 22, 2022

I wrote for @thenation about the Italian election, how rising energy prices could upset the far right’s agenda in government, and the surprising (partial) recovery or the Five Star Movement https://t.co/bCSAZC1zD5

— David Broder (@broderly) September 22, 2022

Meloni will call the pope a globalist and cut off the church like how Florida taxed Disney… then the pope will make a Netflix deal where he’s interviewed by Michelle Obama who will ask if there will ever be a woman pope and the pope will respond “stranger things have happened”

— Don Hughes (@getfiscal) September 26, 2022

Deutsche Bank is warning of German deindustrialization as a result of the gas crisis. Unlike in the US or UK, there is no world leading financial, service or digital sector to fall back on. The gas question is the question of the future of this economy. pic.twitter.com/AQFOKY92WC

— Isabella M. Weber (@IsabellaMWeber) October 17, 2022