rolling middle east 2013 thread

(Reuters) - Two suicide bombings rocked Iran's embassy compound in Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 23 people including an Iranian cultural attaché and hurling bodies and burning wreckage across a debris-strewn street.

A Lebanon-based al Qaeda-linked group, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, claimed responsibility and threatened further attacks unless Iran withdraw forces from Syria, where they have backed President Bashar al-Assad's 2-1/2-year-old war against rebels.

Security camera footage showed a man in an explosives belt rushing towards the outer wall of the embassy before blowing himself up, Lebanese officials said. They said a car bomb parked two buildings away from the compound had caused the second, deadlier explosion. The Lebanese army, however, said both blasts were suicide attacks.

I remember when I used to believe suicide bombers were indicative of a helpless civilian population who must resort to suicide out of emotional/physical distress - as opposed to a really shitty political development propagated by shitty human beings.

i think the people who wear the vests are probably vulnerable and depressed; the men who are building the vests and planning the attacks are not

(can't remember where i read all this but) terrorist planners know who to look for. it is weaponized depression, of a kind.

I thought this recent article was very interesting on the subject: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/10/24/russia_s_mysterious_deadly_phenomenon_of_new_black_widows

Yusup told me how his Arab commander was able to prepare an entire brigade of troops who were not merely prepared for death but desired it. "Lots of different people came to this forest. Some were hyper, wanting to fight, to train, but there were always people who lacked a certain amount of attention at home, lacked love," Yusup said. "These were weak people, who just wanted to be respected and loved, and Khattab was a very good psychologist. He was able to spot such people and assign to them a particular instructor. The first thing that these people received upon entering the collective was love. They were called brothers and sisters, they were coddled, food was prepared for them, prayers were read with them, much time was spent in conversation with them. Then -- all of a sudden -- the instructor would begin asking, almost as a passing thought, whether there were strong brothers among them who would be willing to sacrifice themselves for Allah and for the sake of the common goal. And many among the weak wanted to become strong."

Yusup explained how at their base even the most pathetic felt powerful, a feeling they had seldom felt among their domineering elders and siblings back home. It was that feeling of empowerment which drew them back into the forest like a magnet. "If a terrorist attack is being prepared and the person carrying it out begins to feel fear or doubt, he would not be forced into it," said Yusup. "If today he couldn't do it, another brother or sister would go, while he would continue receiving love and affection until it became more terrible for him to be thrown out of this community, to lose its respect and love, than to die. Through death, you would become a hero; through escape -- a traitor and a coward. And in any case, everyone understood that you would never be forgiven if you wanted to abandon the community."

http://publiceditor.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/11/19/photo-of-palestinian-mother-was-the-wrong-choice/

Inside The One-Man Intelligence Unit That Exposed The Secrets And Atrocities Of Syria's War

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/world/asia/key-issue-said-to-be-resolved-in-us-afghan-security-talks.html

If Obama apologizes, the US maybe gets to continue doing counterterrorism sweeps of private Afghan homes.

The letter would clarify what was meant by “extraordinary circumstances” justifying home raids, and go beyond that as well. “The idea was to indeed mention that there were mistakes made in the conduct of military operations in the past, in the conduct of military operations by United States forces in the last decade, and that Afghans have suffered, and that we understand the pain and therefore we give assurances and make sure those mistakes are not repeated,” Mr. Faizi said.

Afghan officials said they expected to see the text of the letter by Wednesday before Mr. Karzai signs off on the security agreement.

With one day remaining to finalize the wording of the security agreement before the loya jirga meets, Mr. Faizi said that was the remaining issue in talks, carried out in their last phase by Mr. Karzai with the American ambassador, James B. Cunningham, and the American military commander, Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr.

Will Obama apologize? Y/N

Kerry says Yes, Susan Rice says No

I'm thinking none of the above. A letter that's not an apology and maybe not signed by Obama, but admits unintentional mistakes

naftali bennett being interviewed on charlie rose atm

http://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/pope-francis-says-no-middle-east-without-christians

“We will not resign ourselves to imagining a Middle East without Christians,” he said after meeting with Patriarchs from Syria, Irak and Egypt, before calling for “the universal right to lead a dignified life and freely practise one’s own faith to be respected”.

Deal Reached With Iran Halts Its Nuclear Program

According to the agreement, Iran would agree to stop enriching uranium beyond 5 percent. To make good on that pledge, Iran would dismantle links between networks of centrifuges.

All of Iran’s stockpile of uranium that has been enriched to 20 percent, a short hop to weapons-grade fuel, would be diluted or converted into oxide so that it could not be readily used for military purposes.

No new centrifuges, neither old models nor newer more efficient ones, could be installed. Centrifuges that have been installed but which are not currently operating could not be started up.

The agreement, however, would not require Iran to stop enriching uranium to a level of 3.5 percent or dismantle any of its existing centrifuges.

The accord was a disappointment for Israel, which urged the United States to pursue a stronger agreement that would lead to a complete end to Iran’s enrichment program.

But Iran made it clear that continuing enrichment was a prerequisite for any agreement.

The United States did not accept Iran’s claim that it had a “right to enrich” under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. But American officials signaled earlier this week that they were open to a compromise in which the two sides would essentially agree to disagree on how the proliferation treaty should be interpreted, while Tehran continued to enrich.

In return for the initial agreement, the United States has agreed to provide $6 billion to $7 billion in sanctions relief, American officials said. Of this, roughly $4.2 billion would be oil revenue that has been frozen in foreign banks.

Technically, ~20% enriched U is necessary to run most research reactor designs (which produce much of the world's medical isotopes), of which many are in non-nuclear-weapon states. The Non-Proliferation Treaty seems pretty explicit in not infringing upon research/medical applications. Bet China gets the contracts for the light water reactors.

Still, kudos to the negotiators for defusing this issue.

Correction, HEU is neccessary for targets for medical isotope production. There's been a big push to convert most of the world's research reactors from HEU to LEU over the past 25 years. Further detail.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2013/11/24/israeli_stock_market_reaches_record_high_share_prices_love_iranian_nuclear.html

http://www.slate.com/blogs/behold/2013/11/30/olivia_arthur_photographs_saudi_arabian_life_in_her_book_jeddah_diaries.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/02/world/middleeast/israels-foreign-minister-returns-but-abrasive-style-appears-absent.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/05/world/middleeast/us-aims-to-blunt-terrorist-recruiting-of-english-speakers.html

Syrian rebels consider joining forces with regime troops to fight al-Qa’ida

One senior Western intelligence official stressed that the Syrian regime’s forces must be preserved for the battles ahead against the Islamists and the need to avoid the mistakes made in Iraq and Libya, where the army and police were disbanded with the fall of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, allowing terrorist groups to rise in a security vacuum.

The official held that talks between the regime and rebels set to take place in Geneva in January could be the beginning of the formation of an anti-al-Qa’ida front in Syria, along with a negotiated settlement to end the conflict which has claimed more than 117,000 lives so far and made millions refugees inside and outside the country.

http://poy.time.com/2013/12/06/how-egypts-gen-al-sisi-won-times-person-of-the-year-poll/

remember when the US was just about to start arming the rebels w/ weapons?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/12/world/middleeast/us-suspends-nonlethal-aid-to-syrian-rebels-in-north.html

very interesting: http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/names-of-the-revolution/

Too many options for a poll, I suppose...

Washington Post's neo-con op-ed page editor Fred Hyatt today asserts that the Syrian humanitarian food crisis is just about the same as the Darfur one from awhile back, and that there's no reason why the Obama administration can't solve it. Not even gonna link to that overly simplistic take from a guy who's itching to get the US active in Syria and Iran

how the kurds are beating al-q in syrian northeast:
http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/syrias-kurds-beating-al-qaeda-balint-szlanko/

Western nations have indicated to the Syrian opposition that peace next month talks may not lead to the removal of President Bashar al-Assad and that his Alawite minority will remain key in any transitional administration, opposition sources said.

The message, delivered to senior members of the Syrian National Coalition at a meeting of the anti-Assad Friends of Syria alliance in London last week, was prompted by rise of al-Qaeda and other militant groups, and their takeover of a border crossing and arms depots near Turkey belonging to the moderate Free Syrian Army, the sources told Reuters.

“Our Western friends made it clear in London that Assad cannot be allowed to go now because they think chaos and an Islamist militant takeover would ensue,” said one senior member of the Coalition who is close to officials from Saudi Arabia.

Noting the possibility of Assad holding a presidential election when his term formally ends next year, the Coalition member added: “Some do not even seem to mind if he runs again next year, forgetting he gassed his own people.”

The shift in Western priorities, particularly the United States and Britain, from removing Assad towards combating Islamist militants is causing divisions within international powers backing the nearly three-year-old revolt, according to diplomats and senior members of the coalition.

surely the point of representative democracy is you can gas your own people but they'll remember it next election?

i'm sure the next elections will be free + fair!

we can't allow free and fair elections to endanger democracy, tho

boom

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/12/18/israel_s_demographic_time_bomb_is_a_dud_israel_arab_two_state_solution

There are countless reasons for Israelis and Palestinians to seek peace, but a false demographic panic should not be one of them.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/19/world/europe/turkey-jailing-the-most-journalists.html

For the second consecutive year, Turkey is imprisoning more journalists than any other country, according to a report from the Committee to Protect Journalists released Wednesday. Turkey was followed by Iran and China; the three countries account for more than half of the 211 journalists jailed worldwide as of Dec. 1. The number of journalists killed and imprisoned fell in 2013, but the year was the second worst for the number of imprisoned since record keeping began in 1990; the worst was last year, when 232 were held. The report said 52 journalists were killed so far this year. The largest number, 21, were killed in Syria’s civil war. The second largest number of fatalities was in Egypt, with six dead.

good piece: http://pando.com/2013/12/19/the-war-nerd-saudis-syria-and-blowback/

i doubt we'll see a large aliyah movement from the US in the near future, but a little over a half million french jews - maybe:
http://www.jta.org/2013/12/15/news-opinion/world/from-anti-semitism-to-recession-french-jews-find-wealth-of-reasons-to-leave-for-israel

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/egypts-military-backed-government-declares-muslim-brotherhood-a-terrorist-organization/2013/12/25/7cf075ca-6da0-11e3-aecc-85cb037b7236_story.html

http://ottomansandzionists.com/2013/12/26/this-is-what-a-panicked-erdogan-looks-like/

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304361604579288430866906254

Saudi Arabia pledged $3 billion to bolster Lebanon's armed forces, in a challenge to the Iranian-allied Hezbollah militia's decadeslong status as Lebanon's main power broker and security force.

Lebanese President Michel Sleiman revealed the Saudi gift on Lebanese national television Sunday, calling it the largest aid package ever to the country's defense bodies. The Saudi pledge compares with Lebanon's 2012 defense budget, which the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute put at $1.7 billion.

Lebanon would use the Saudi grant to buy "newer and more modern weapons," from France, said Mr. Sleiman, an independent who has become increasingly critical of Hezbollah. It followed what he called "decades of unsuccessful efforts" to build a credible Lebanese national defense force.

As a direct challenge to Hezbollah, the Saudi gift—and the Lebanese president's acceptance—has potential to change the balance of power in Lebanon and the region. It also threatens to raise sectarian and political tensions further in a region already made volatile by the three-year, heavily sectarian civil war next door in Syria.

new middle east thread here:
Rolling MENA 2014

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-txz4VCoikbU/UKpkcjK2PHI/AAAAAAAAGKw/esADD4Qj-QU/s320/Tayyip+Erdogan.jpg

NAME recep tayyip erdogan
TITLE turkish pm
INTERESTS supressing restive minorities, european integration, containing syriafalse flag sarin attacks in syria, sinister sub rosa manipulations
SPECIAL POWERS n/a
ZIONIST RATING b-

― things that are jokes pretty much (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Tuesday, 1 January 2013 18:51 (1 year ago)

EDIT

SPECIAL POWERS dispensing advice to suicidal people prevented from jumping off the bosphorus bridge by his bodyguards

http://i.imgur.com/Kv4MHk4.jpg

Turkish-president-Erdogan-stops-motorcade-talk-man-trying-jump-Bosphorus-Bridge.html

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest comments in favour of greater executive powers are unlikely to help him bring those critics round. On Friday he was quoted by Turkish media as citing a striking example of an effective presidential system – Germany under Adolf Hitler.

Asked on his return from a visit to Saudi Arabia whether an executive presidential system was possible while maintaining the unitary structure of the state, he said: “There are already examples in the world. You can see it when you look at Hitler’s Germany.

“There are later examples in various other countries,” he told reporters, according to a recording broadcast by the Dogan news agency and reported by Reuters.

A Turkish official sought to clarify Erdoğan’s remark. “There are good and poor examples of presidential systems and the important thing is to put checks and balances in place,” he said.

Rated by Recep

lol even if he was "putting aside the invasions and the genocide" he's still offering up an autocratic usurpation of the democratic process as an example of an effective presidential system. well i guess effective might still be in play but only a presidential system in that it very briefly flirted w/ democratic legitimacy b4 jettisoning the entire thing.

Asked on his return from a visit to Hitler whether an autocratic system was possible while maintaining the unitary structure of the state, he said: “There are already examples in the world. You can see it when you look at Saudi Arabia, though you need to make sure the autocrat isn't old, senile, bellicose and causing huge budget deficits."