I looked into buying James's Win Shares book online (came out about a decade ago), and it's way too pricey--new copies $138 (!), used copies $25, which I'm sure would end up being close to $35 after postage. For some reason, I missed it when it came out.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2013 17:52 (ten years ago) link
Not really helpful, but Baseball References career defensive WAR leaders:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_career.shtml
You'd have to pick out the catchers. I don't know why they don't have a positional list--they have positional lists for about eight other categories.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:02 (ten years ago) link
If I haven't missed anyone:
1. Gary Carter2. Bob Boone3. Jim Sundberg4. Tony Pena (big gap after Sundberg)5. Yadier Molina6. Carlton Fisk7. Steve Yeager8. Lance Parrish9. Benito Santiago10. Del Crandell
"This statistic is computed from play-by-play data which is only complete from 1974 to the present. From 1945-1973, the data is incomplete, though for most seasons only less than 20 games per season total are missing."
― clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:07 (ten years ago) link
you missed the real #1 (from that list): pudge rodriguez
― reckless woo (Z S), Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:10 (ten years ago) link
Super-sized "oops"--#8 all-time for any position.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:12 (ten years ago) link
so where did Fangraphs get their defensive ratings for Dickey, Hartnett, Wally Schang et al?
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:42 (ten years ago) link
also, not sure if this was cited in Andruw HOF discussion: greatest defensive CF "ever"?
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 6 November 2013 18:46 (ten years ago) link
Not high on pre-expansion catcher defense, are they?
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 6, 2013 12:39 PM (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
uzr is still considered entirely unfit for actual catcher defense analysis, i think it's basically in beta mode until they figure shit out
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Thursday, 7 November 2013 00:29 (ten years ago) link
"I don't know if it's going to change the way we do business, necessarily," Amaro said. "We still plan to be a scouting and player development organization, but I think it's important to get all the information and analyze not just what we're doing, but how other clubs are evaluating players."
http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/11/6/5072250/phillies-hire-the-analytics-guy-theyre-going-to-ignore
Freedman, however, is not a Phillies employee, assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said.
“He’s joined us through the commissioner’s office,” said Proefrock referring to the arrangement as an “externship.” ”He’s here for a period of time,” Proefrock continued. “We were contacted by [the commissioner's office] this summer. They proposed the arrangement, we had a need and took advantage of it. He’s a bright guy. It might become something more than [the current role].”
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/07/the-phillies-didnt-hire-a-stat-guy-after-all-theyre-just-renting-him-for-a-while/
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 8 November 2013 12:37 (ten years ago) link
I just want to know if the Philths' hatred of analysis led them to coin “externship.”
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 8 November 2013 18:27 (ten years ago) link
so where did Fangraphs get their defensive ratings for Dickey, Hartnett, Wally Schang et al?― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 6, 2013 1:42 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 6, 2013 1:42 PM (2 days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― ciderpress, Friday, 8 November 2013 18:40 (ten years ago) link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externship
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Saturday, 9 November 2013 01:13 (ten years ago) link
news to me! disgusting business English goes way back.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 9 November 2013 01:55 (ten years ago) link
No idea in which thread to share this, but somehow I guess scheduling is one form of baseball metrics (and I had to, it's a fun little documentary):
The Schedule Makers
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 9 November 2013 23:30 (ten years ago) link
^^ great story
At the end they complain about how bad the schedules are now compared to theirs, but they never had to deal with combination of unbalanced schedules + interleague play + odd number of teams in each league. I have a hunch that the last one has ruined the elegance of the scheduling beyond all repair.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 10 November 2013 08:35 (ten years ago) link
That was fantastic. Guy looked eerily like Judd Apatow. Any of the other short ones good?
They dealt with all except the last though for at least 7 years though.
― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Sunday, 10 November 2013 14:54 (ten years ago) link
I haven't watched Van Horn's one yet, but it led me to one on the Honus Wagner card that I thought was good--the link is in the card thread below this one.
― clemenza, Sunday, 10 November 2013 15:03 (ten years ago) link
stupid question maybe but i was checking out big papi's BBR page and how does he have a -1.7 dWAR for only 6 games played in the field last season? he's got similar stats for previous years. i don't think he'd be THAT bad, so what's the position adjustment w/r/t DHing?
― christmas candy bar (al leong), Friday, 13 December 2013 21:22 (ten years ago) link
dWAR now contains the position component as we feel this better captures player defensive value.
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 13 December 2013 21:24 (ten years ago) link
er, maybe you knew that
DH takes a huge hit
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 13 December 2013 21:25 (ten years ago) link
looking at fWAR's defensive scores for him it looks like a full-season DH starts around a -1.5 baseline.
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 13 December 2013 21:28 (ten years ago) link
ah gotcha...interesting.
― christmas candy bar (al leong), Friday, 13 December 2013 21:29 (ten years ago) link
For $200, Alex.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/jeopardy--contestants-were-stumped-by-sabermetrics-clue-002124051.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=fb
― clemenza, Monday, 21 December 2015 18:26 (eight years ago) link
barves' coppolella on WAR
Like it as means for comparison, but too much emphasis on defense
― mookieproof, Thursday, 14 January 2016 20:26 (eight years ago) link
managerial tactics that are withering away
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sabermetrics-is-killing-bad-dugout-decisions/
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 14 January 2016 21:49 (eight years ago) link
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/01/14/mlb-scouts-s-getting-harder-avoid-force-out/78803500/
― polyphonic, Thursday, 14 January 2016 22:01 (eight years ago) link
January 30 is SABR Day, with lots of chapter meetings.
http://sabr.org/sabrday
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 19 January 2016 21:57 (eight years ago) link
with links to nominated pieces
We're pleased to announce the finalists for the 2016 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards, which will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year.
Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, and Beyond the Box Score.
http://sabr.org/latest/announcing-finalists-2016-sabr-analytics-conference-research-awards
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 January 2016 19:20 (eight years ago) link
Prospectus annual is out, which means there'll be a new METS THREAD AS SOON AS I CONJURE A TITLE.
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 3 February 2016 22:12 (eight years ago) link
PECOTA! Indians w/ 10-win advantage/projection in AL Central.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 17 February 2016 04:54 (eight years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbbMEpLWEAAWANI.jpg
― Andy K, Wednesday, 17 February 2016 15:17 (eight years ago) link
BP editor Sam Miller on the Royals and PECOTA (free)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/a/28457
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 17 February 2016 20:31 (eight years ago) link
Pirates hopeful Cole Figueroa and his pursuit of analytics
http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10149683-74/figueroa-ball-spring
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28697
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 19 March 2016 13:17 (eight years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cegi7j4XIAAIauV.jpg
― Andy K, Saturday, 26 March 2016 22:45 (eight years ago) link
The Indians are projected as the winningest AL team by PECOTA.
I read at least some of every BP Annual team chapter while i had an i.v. drip in yesterday. Some real good stuff despite two different references to Flo from Progressive... Russell Carleton (I think) wrote a breakup letter to WAR ("Remember when we stayed up all night making fun of Murray Chass?"), and the guy who wrote the Angels chapter calls the team, given its defiant-ostrich culture, The Comments.
― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 29 March 2016 18:16 (eight years ago) link
on DRA
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-analytics-guru-who-could-be-the-next-nate-silver-has-a-revolutionary-new-stat
― mookieproof, Thursday, 1 December 2016 17:22 (seven years ago) link
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/goose-egg-new-save-stat-relief-pitchers/?ex_cid=538twitter
seems cool!
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 3 May 2017 16:22 (seven years ago) link
I like that stat, more telling than a save. It raises a bit of the bar on John Franco and Lee Smith, both of which's career straddled between the old 'Fireman' and the 'Eckersley - 9th inning only' style of closers.
― earlnash, Wednesday, 3 May 2017 21:12 (seven years ago) link
i'll have to read the article again closer to understand the applied stats a little better but when it comes to ranking pitchers based on value added, i don't see why you wouldn't just use WPA. as far as basic box score stats go tho, the goose egg definitely seems preferable to the save
an issue with using goose eggs to retrospectively evaluate relievers tho, as silver notes, is that reliever roles have revolved around getting saves for the past 30 or 40 years, so guys like rivera miss out on opportunities. also seems a bit unfair to LOOGY guys
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 3 May 2017 21:32 (seven years ago) link
Win Shares does this as well as LI (Leverage Index). But it may not be as general public friendly as goose egg.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Wednesday, 3 May 2017 21:38 (seven years ago) link
I think the idea of it being only 2 run lead is what is interesting in the figure. A 2 run lead to me is a standard of the such, as it is a 'bloop and a blast' from the opposition being back in the game.
― earlnash, Wednesday, 3 May 2017 22:25 (seven years ago) link
It's a good stat to do the comparison Nate set out to do, which is look at the classic 70s to mid 80s 'Fireman" compared to the LaRussa/Duncan closer works the 9th setup. I think this stat would perhaps be more an illustration of worth for some long time setup men too.
The type of relievers that are perhaps not as easy to compare would be old school long man types that would often come in early with the club to hold a team in a game. Big Red Machine's pitching staff was anchored by a couple of those types with Pedro Borbon and Clay Carroll. Those guys threw alot of innings held teams in check and let those big bats get them come back wins.
― earlnash, Wednesday, 3 May 2017 22:33 (seven years ago) link
some of the differences here are rather small, but it does suggest the dodgers have found a metric they like for pitchers: average exit velocity (here filtered for a minimum of 150 batted ball events)
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2017&abs=150&player_type=pitcher
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 1 August 2017 13:00 (six years ago) link
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putting-war-in-context-a-response-to-bill-james/
dave cameron responds to bill james' nonsense
― k3vin k., Monday, 20 November 2017 18:05 (six years ago) link
I'm at work and can only skim, but judging from the tone, he hardly seems to dismiss James's piece as nonsense. They see the issue differently.
― clemenza, Monday, 20 November 2017 18:40 (six years ago) link
yes, the issue is mostly one of what we value when we use statistics to evaluate players. that said, many of james' points were pretty ill-informed -- he even mentioned that he never really took the time to understand how WAR worked until now, which was pretty shocking to read considering...he's bill james!
― k3vin k., Monday, 20 November 2017 18:57 (six years ago) link
I could be wrong about this--and if true, I don't think James would ever concede the point--but I do think he's always had a certain amount of resentment that WAR was adopted industry-wide and Win Shares never really went anywhere. (As opposed to the Pythagorean Formula or RC/27, among other things, that became foundational.) Did you read Posnanski's response to James? That, and a NoTime post on the awards thread, helped me understand his piece better.
― clemenza, Monday, 20 November 2017 19:25 (six years ago) link
i did read the posnanski piece, and he seemed to fall into the same trap james did. as cameron says, it more or less comes down to what question you want to answer. if you really want to reflect “what happened”, then just use WPA and be done with it (although as cameron points out, that solves one problem while not addressing another, if the objective really is to tie the statistics to wins). better yet, just use RBI, lol
it’s 2017. we accept at this point that performance in clutch situations is due largely to chance. WAR essentially says that if this player put up the same numbers over a million simulated seasons, he would add this number of wins to the team relative to a replacement player. the timing is irrelevant — but of course, that is a value judgment
― k3vin k., Monday, 20 November 2017 22:07 (six years ago) link
The Yankees and Astros both scored almost 200 runs than they allowed. But the Astros won 101 games while Yanks won 91. When adding the individual contributions of the players do you want the Astros to be even with Yanks or way ahead?— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) November 20, 2017
Can I answer "I have no desire to add the individual contributions of the players together?"— Voros McCracken (@VorosM) November 20, 2017
― mookieproof, Monday, 20 November 2017 23:05 (six years ago) link
I think the 1,000 simulated seasons would quite probably (though not with absolute certainty) prove that Altuve hit in luck in high-leverage situations this year, and that Judge had very little. But I still don't think that's particularly useful in determining 2017's MVP.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 21 November 2017 04:33 (six years ago) link