heres the whole article explaining his methodology
It's time, once again, for the year-end awards, and there's one set of awards in particular that's extremely difficult to hand out.
I'm referring to the All-Defense team, because choosing one remains as much art as science. Despite the best efforts of numbers guys, like me, to shine some light on individual defense, there still are many dark corners.
Nonetheless, we have a couple of numbers that can prove useful. One of my favorites is "points saved," with the idea being to compare what a player's team gave up when he was on the court (numbers from 82games.com) to what it was expected to give up based on previous results. The latter figure can be calculated by taking the minutes a player played in a game, multiplying it by the team's points allowed in that game and dividing by 48 (or 53 for an overtime game).
The result is far from perfect, but with just a couple of exceptions, it reflects the general hierarchy of who is good at defense and who isn't. The first caveat is that it's much easier to look good in this rating on a bad defensive team than on a good defensive team, which is why I included an adjustment for a team's defensive efficiency rating on the season. The second is what I call the "bad backup" effect, the idea being that it's easier to have a good "points saved" figure if the man replacing you is a particularly bad defensive player.
The final point is more nefarious, however, because it directly relates to what we're trying to measure. A lot of good defensive players spend their time matched up against opponents' best offensive players. In fact, a lot of coaches intentionally match their ace defender's minutes with the opposing star's.
In other words, it's possible a player's "points saved" might vastly underrate his contribution because he's on the court when the opponent has its best offensive lineup on the floor and off the court when it doesn't. This is particularly true for players like Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier who don't have great offensive value.
Needless to say, there's still a large subjective element to all this. I included every player's adjusted points-saved totals (expressed per 40 minutes, through Tuesday's games), but I wasn't a slave to them in choosing an All-Defense team. I've seen every team play start to finish at least 10 times and all but three of them in person (sorry Bucks, Mavs and Clippers -- maybe next season), so I think I have a pretty good feel for who has done what.
With all that said, here's one man's ballot:
POINT GUARD
Honorable mention: Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Devin Harris, Baron Davis
Parker (2.26) has strong to excellent scores every year, in part because he tends to share the court with Bowen and Tim Duncan. Still, he's an underrated defender with decent size and good quickness.
Paul (0.09) is a terror off the ball, obviously, what with his enormous steals total. The points saved might underrate him, since the Hornets seem to play slower when he's on the bench. Nonetheless, his on-ball work is more decent than spectacular, so I'm more comfortable with him in this group than in the top three.
Harris (1.14) was my first-team pick a year ago, but his numbers aren't as good this season, and I suspect he might be concentrating more on the offensive end -- especially since he went to Jersey.
Davis (2.62) was my third-team choice last year and still can bring it as well as anyone on a given night, but there are too many nights when he seems disinterested.
Third team: Chauncey Billups, Detroit (4.36)
An honorable mention pick a year ago, Billups moves up to the third team. The Pistons have been one of the league's top-five defensive teams all season, and his ability to hold down the fort at the point of attack is one of the reasons.
Although quicker guards can give him some trouble, he's virtually impossible to post up and big enough to handle guarding 2s -- in fact, he often trades assignments with Richard Hamilton.
Second team: Keyon Dooling, Orlando (7.98)
I was skittish about putting somebody who played so little so high up the list, but he's an active defender with good size, plus he can guard two positions and willingly pressures the ball. More importantly, his numbers pretty much leap off the page in terms of how much better the Magic defend with him on the court.
I'm sure he'll be completely ignored in the real All-Defense voting, but he's a quality defender who deserves a shout-out.
First team: Rajon Rondo, Boston (5.94)
A second-teamer last year, Rondo deservedly moves up to the first team this year. He's as quick as any guard in the league, and his long arms make him an absolute pest to opposing point guards. Plus, he has the size to handle bigger guards in switches.
Last season, he had the best per-minute numbers at the position, and this season, he was second, so the numbers back up what the visuals tell me.
SHOOTING GUARD
Honorable mention: Anthony Parker, Tony Allen, Ron Artest, John Salmons
Parker (-0.29) was my second-team choice a year ago, but his numbers haven't been nearly as strong this year and, subjectively, I don't think he has been quite as effective a stopper as he was last season.
Allen (4.06) was absolutely ferocious the three times I saw him in person, but the effort didn't seem quite as consistent in the TV games I watched, and he didn't play as much as the guys in the top three.
The Kings have been a horrid defensive team, but Artest (0.29) and Salmons (3.68) have been the two bright spots. However, Artest is too focused on his offense on too many nights, and Salmons went in the tank when Kevin Martin returned and he had to come off the bench.
Third team: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers (4.21)
Superstar players generally aren't asked to take on tough defensive assignments until late in games. But Bryant is asked to do it more often than most, and it's a job he does very well, making him a third-team pick for a second straight season.
Of particular note is that his D didn't appear to wane one iota after he suffered a midseason pinkie injury that will require surgery at some point in the offseason.
Second team: Raja Bell, Phoenix (4.59)
While Bell's shooting has been a disappointment for much of the season, his defense has remained solid. It seems to me he has done less of the ref-baiting he did in years past and has focused more on just getting stops. It appears the strategy has worked.
Opposing shooting guards have a microscopic player efficiency rating of just 12.1 when he's on the court, according to 82games.com.
First team: Shane Battier, Houston (1.55)
Although a small forward offensively, Battier has spent most of his time defending shooting guards. Plus, putting him here gives us the strongest first team overall -- so shooting guard it is.
This probably is the one case in which the numbers most disagree with my observations, and since Battier's points-saved totals in previous seasons were spectacular, this almost certainly is a fluke.
Subjectively, I thought Battier was clearly the best defensive wing in the league this season and was the best defender on the league's second-best defensive team. I expounded on his defensive skills a few weeks ago when I was following the Rockets during their winning streak, so I won't repeat myself now, except to say that if he doesn't make All-Defense this year, there is something terribly, terribly wrong.
SMALL FORWARDS
Honorable mention: Josh Howard, Stephen Jackson, Andre Iguodala
Howard (4.17) has been one of the league's top two-way players for several years, but I'm not sure he's quite in the elite category at either end. It's his second straight year as an honorable mention pick and, once again, he just as easily could have been a third-teamer.
Jackson (2.53) is one of the few good defenders on a pretty lousy defensive team, but I don't think he moves laterally as well as some of the other guys on this list.
Iguodala (1.51) has outstanding tools and gives a decent effort for a guy with so much offensive responsibility. He's one of the reasons the surprising Sixers are seventh overall in defensive efficiency, so it wounds me a little to leave him off the list, but he can't quite hang with the top three guys.
Third team: Paul Pierce, Boston (6.90)
One of the big reasons the Celtics have been so unbelievably good on defense is that Pierce has bought in to what they are doing and put up the most sustained defensive effort of his career.
His offensive numbers have suffered for it, but Boston's position in the standings speaks for itself. Pierce always has had the physique and foot speed to be a good defender, and this year, he's really put it all together.
Second team: Bruce Bowen, San Antonio (2.77)
I don't think there's any question that Bowen, at 36, has slipped a little from his peak and isn't quite as devastating a force as he once was. That said, he's slipping from an awfully high peak.
Bowen still moves as well laterally as probably anyone in the game and has the same dogged mentality that's made him so frustrating for opposing scorers for the past decade.
First team: Tayshaun Prince, Detroit (6.83)
For Prince, defense comes down to a simple premise -- he can play further off his man than anyone else in the league because his arms are so long he can still challenge the shot. As a result, it's very tough to get past him, yet it's very tough to get a clean look from the perimeter against him.
He also is great at picking up guards on switches and, since Ben Wallace left, he has been more vital to Detroit's defensive success.
CENTERS
Honorable mention: Kendrick Perkins, DeSagana Diop, Tyson Chandler, Jeff Foster
Perkins (7.42) has been the perfect complement to Kevin Garnett; he's a physical, dirty-work guy who will bang against the league's bigger post players, and he cares not a whit how many touches he gets at the other end. He can overdo it with the physicality at times, but he's an overlooked factor in the Celtics' success.
Chandler (2.42) is a little bit like teammate Chris Paul -- his importance is clear visually but tough to prove statistically. He's the best defender on a pretty good defensive team, but it's toughest to crack the top three at center, so he'll have to settle for honorable mention again.
Diop (8.54) has had awesome numbers, and observations back them up -- he's clearly one of the best defensive centers in basketball, both in terms of defending the post and offering help defense. But he's become so poor offensively that he hardly plays, making it tough to move him too far up this list.
Foster (5.87) is vastly underrated for his D. He might be the quickest center in the league and is perfectly comfortable going outside and checking small forwards. With Jermaine O'Neal out, he's been the key defender on a team that's somehow stayed in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency.
Third team: Dwight Howard, Orlando (-0.52)
Howard is the key defender on one of the league's best teams and obviously a dominant defensive rebounder. His points-saved numbers are shockingly average, but he also has been backed up by a very good defensive center, Adonal Foyle.
To me, the two more pertinent numbers are that opposing centers had a 12.9 PER against him and that Orlando is seventh in defensive efficiency with Howard as the only truly strong defender in the starting lineup.
Second team: Marcus Camby, Denver (1.77)
Subjectively, I thought Camby defended at least as well this season as a year ago, when he won the defensive player of the year award. Of course, part of the way he accomplished this was by essentially taking the year off on offense, but we won't worry ourselves with that here.
Denver, believe it or not, ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and the mobility of big guys like Camby, Kenyon Martin and Eduardo Najera is the reason it ranks this high with its withering pace and the perimeter players' blatant disregard for D.
First team: Tim Duncan, San Antonio (3.94)
The Spurs tend to limit Duncan's exposure to star post players, so we rarely get to see how good he is on a man-to-man basis. Instead, we have to content ourselves with watching his textbook help-defense and seeing how he never leaves his feet but always has a hand in position to block or alter a shot.
I think he, like Bowen, might have lost a bit from his peak, which is why the Spurs are "only" third in defensive efficiency this season, but he remains among the cream of the crop on D.
POWER FORWARDS
Honorable mention: Anderson Varejao, Boris Diaw, Josh Smith, Lamar Odom
I have to mention Diaw (5.29) because his numbers have been huge and opposing power forwards have had only a 13.6 PER against him. His numbers weren't anywhere near this good in past seasons, and subjectively, I don't see his being close to the class of some of these other guys, but the numbers warrant at least discussion.
Smith (2.83) is an amazing shot-blocker, and the other parts of his defensive game are rounding into shape … but they're not quite there yet. His lapses are definitely much fewer and farther between than in years past, so give him another year or two, and he'll probably climb into the top three.
Odom (5.02) has responded to his continually shrinking offensive role by playing quality defense at two positions and pulling down 11 boards per 40 minutes. He's a little overrated offensively, but he doesn't get nearly enough credit for how hard he plays on D.
Varejao (5.07) missed time with his holdout and an injury, and his timing was a little off when he came back, but you can see how important he is to the way Cleveland plays. He was a third-team pick a year ago and would have made it again if he'd played all season.
Third team: Chuck Hayes, Houston (7.46)
A second-teamer a year ago, Hayes, at 6-6, is undersized for his position, but pound for pound, he's one of the league's strongest players. He knows how to use every ounce to push opponents out of prime post position.
His defensive stats have been ginormous all three seasons he's been in the league, so even though he lost his job to Luis Scola, he still gets a top-three selection here.
Second team: Rasheed Wallace, Detroit (5.99)
Despite his well-earned rep as a hothead and loose cannon, Wallace is an intelligent help defender who uses his exceptional length to bother shooters. He makes very few mistakes, can defend the center spot in a pinch and does a decent job handling guards on switches.
As an added plus, he has handed out fewer free points this season than in years past by getting only 11 T's.
First team and defensive player of the year: Kevin Garnett, Boston (8.22)
Yes, Garnett's defensive stats have been huge, but they tell only a fraction of the story. Boston was a middling defensive team a year ago, and it wasn't clear that trading for Ray Allen made it any better.
In other words, the entire jump from 18th in defensive efficiency a year ago to third all-time this season can pretty much be laid at the feet of Garnett. His intensity on the court is palpable, but perhaps even more important is how he has affected Pierce and the bench guys. I'm not sure whether that translates to MVP -- not when Chris Paul is saving basketball in New Orleans -- but if he doesn't win the defensive player of the year award, there needs to be an investigation, because he's been absolutely spectacular.
― ice cr?m, Tuesday, 24 February 2009 17:40 (fifteen years ago) link
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