If there was a time for intervention, I believe it has passed.
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 21:57 (ten years ago) link
if you're gonna start shooting you'd better have a reasonably high chance of a good outcome and we know that we don't.
― R'LIAH (goole), Friday, 23 August 2013 21:57 (ten years ago) link
The Free Syrian supporters really, really wanted Western help about a year ago or more (more than what they're getting now, I mean) but now I think they're so aggrieved at our indifference, that they've reverted to the usual anti-Americanism of the region and little we could do would change that.
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 22:00 (ten years ago) link
the_west is not just america
http://cleanwebkids.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/gerome_bonaparte_before_the_sphinxb.png
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:02 (ten years ago) link
No and France and the UK have already started making noises about the use of poison gas. They were involved in Libya and the UK and Germany gave France some help in Mali (mostly logistic). They are more concerned since Syria is on the Med and Turkey, a European nation, if not a member of the EU is a neighbor of Syria. Obama's comments today imply that he intends to do nothing without at least the support of European allies and probably now w/o UN Security Council support (which he'll never get).
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 22:08 (ten years ago) link
Turkey, a European nation, according to about 10% of French people
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:12 (ten years ago) link
ftr i sincerely hope none of the_west get involved
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:13 (ten years ago) link
Shakey OTM. At this point it feels the best the West can do is just staying away.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:19 (ten years ago) link
The sad truth is that Russia, Turkey and Iran would rather see a stalemate than the total victory of the enemy of their proxy in Syria and they can live with a ruined and divided Syria with almost two million refugees externally and possibly twice that number displaced internally. It seems that the US just wants to make sure that chemical weopons don't fall into the hands of the most extreme jihadis and Israel probably doesn't mind if Syria's a complete basket-case provided Lebanon doesn't slide that way, too, since that would be a boon to Hizbollah. I imagine the US will use drones or cruise missiles if there's too much use of chemical weopons or there's a credible chance of them falling into the hands of radical sunni rebels/ Al Qaeda. Or maybe use proxies of their own... I can't see US boots on the ground right now. There's too much war weariness after our super successful interventions in Iraq and Afghansitan and the situation is that much more murky.
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 22:31 (ten years ago) link
US boots on the ground never going to happen
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:37 (ten years ago) link
'targeted strikes' by someone a possibility after this week
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 22:39 (ten years ago) link
^^^
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 22:43 (ten years ago) link
Otherwise known as:
"Look for something that's not already blown up. Blow it up."
"About that, Sir..."
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Friday, 23 August 2013 22:44 (ten years ago) link
USA or european intervention in Syria would basically be taking intermittent aerial potshots at any faction they don't like, whenever that faction looks to be succeeding too much. The factions most favored by the west are not nearly strong or cohesive enough to attract more backing than that. I have a hunch the US State Dept would prefer to see Assad resume control than see a victory for the majority of Assad's armed opposition. This is not a good time to be a Syrian non-combatant.
― Aimless, Friday, 23 August 2013 23:28 (ten years ago) link
the option that would lead to fewest civilian casualties and displacements = covertly providing assistance to assad from the beginning
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Friday, 23 August 2013 23:49 (ten years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Saturday, 24 August 2013 00:01 (ten years ago) link
http://i.imgur.com/jSUEikT.jpg
caucasian privilege in the mujahideen
― Nilmar Honorato da Silva, Saturday, 24 August 2013 00:05 (ten years ago) link
this hews pretty close to my opinion on syria http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/girl-you-wish-you-hadnt-started-a-conversation-with-at-a-partys-summer-plans/n36354/
― max, Saturday, 24 August 2013 12:21 (ten years ago) link
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/08/26/article-2401925-1B75DFF5000005DC-134_636x410.jpg
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 00:37 (ten years ago) link
Louis, I have made terrible sexing decisions in the past indeed. But I can make better decisions in the future - you will always be a terrible person who gives leftists a bad name.
― boots get knocked from here to czechoslovakier (milo z), Sunday, 20 March 2011 20:39 (2 years ago)
^^^wonder how this guy voted
― which can be sold for meat if they are boys.. (sorry guys) (imago), Monday, 26 August 2013 08:12 (ten years ago) link
"There are rules to international law" is always a pisser in any US president's act, but this one delivers it with extra balls.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Monday, 26 August 2013 12:31 (ten years ago) link
Three people voted for intervention. I think it would be interesting to hear their perspective.
― Treeship, Monday, 26 August 2013 13:38 (ten years ago) link
what do u think treesh?
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 13:40 (ten years ago) link
It doesn't seem like any sort of intervention would be able to accomplish much, and might further inflame the conflict (though i'm not sure it can get much worse than it already is.) Also there is no clear line of "when to intervene", which makes every "intervention" on humanitarian grounds suspect and complicated. So I guess I am for non-intervention, but I think it sucks that International Law exists but it can't do anything to stop a dictator's mass slaughter of civilians.
― Treeship, Monday, 26 August 2013 13:53 (ten years ago) link
Really, what 'needs' to be done is establishing a no-fly zone, nobody is talking about invervention as in putting troops on the ground to take down assad. It's the planes and helicopters that needs to be stopped. I think this would have happened a long time ago if russia wasn't involved.
btw i didn't vote. I don't know what to do, but i think you guys are way too pessimistic.
― Frederik B, Monday, 26 August 2013 13:55 (ten years ago) link
do you think there should be international investigating magistrates in the civil law fashion, who can determine if violations have occurred and then authorize force under the imprimatur of the UN, thereby bypassing the vagaries of the security council or the intervionist whims of individual nations? xp
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 13:58 (ten years ago) link
Maybe, but that seems like it would be a very long process and might not make sense if your goal is to stop an ongoing crisis.
― Treeship, Monday, 26 August 2013 16:10 (ten years ago) link
so, kerry declares war, pretty much
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:25 (ten years ago) link
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/2013/08/26/kerry-make-statement-syria/Z7ND7UdEp1OQSs9ZQH2v9H/story.html
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:26 (ten years ago) link
i'm in favor of non-intervention but for the wrong reasons
― Mordy , Monday, 26 August 2013 20:31 (ten years ago) link
which are?
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:33 (ten years ago) link
airstrikes/drone strikes I guess
― what's up ugly girls? (Shakey Mo Collier), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:34 (ten years ago) link
state interest in forcing commitment of iranian resources, bleeding of al-q, hezbollah, good distraction to keep radical fundamentalist attention away from the west, etc.
― Mordy , Monday, 26 August 2013 20:35 (ten years ago) link
a nice lil quagmire without us in it, for once!
fairly grotesque but i can't disagree
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:36 (ten years ago) link
treesh to employ the inane binary of robert kagan u seem to be a hobbesian realist distrustful of the kantian idealism of the UN
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:36 (ten years ago) link
mordy is correct though
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:38 (ten years ago) link
the distraction hypothesis is probably a bit of a zero sum fallacy because there seems to be an enduring supply of jihad bros, if 10000 of them die in syria then they are probably the same 10000 who were 'radicalized' by syria in the first place
― There are a lot of subjective opinions (Nilmar Honorato da Silva), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:40 (ten years ago) link
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/files/2013/08/BSm0bOBCYAAAph6.jpg
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/08/26/the-middle-east-explained-in-one-sort-of-terrifying-chart/
― The Bridges of Witchy Woman (Eazy), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:45 (ten years ago) link
this ought to be a splendid one.
― HOOS it because...of steen???? (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:46 (ten years ago) link
― Mordy , Monday, August 26, 2013 4:35 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, August 26, 2013 4:36 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
lol the "daniel pipes theory"
― max, Monday, 26 August 2013 20:51 (ten years ago) link
well you can subtract any glee at watching arabs gas and shell each other, for my part.
the point is, i think we have no hope of improving this situation at this point. the best thing about it at the moment, for syrians and americans, is that we aren't there doing anything.
i guess i'd be curious to hear what any intervention plan would be.
― R'LIAH (goole), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:54 (ten years ago) link
whatever the plan is, FSA just reported the russians are pulling out of the port in tartus
― HOOS it because...of steen???? (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 26 August 2013 20:57 (ten years ago) link
A few ideas of what it might be from Fred Kaplan.
― The Bridges of Witchy Woman (Eazy), Monday, 26 August 2013 21:00 (ten years ago) link
FSA just reported the russians are pulling out of the port in tartus I thought they were mostly in Cyprus these days, anyway.
― Fais ce que voudra, occiderai de même (Michael White), Monday, 26 August 2013 21:02 (ten years ago) link
couldn't say, i frankly don't have the relevant context.
― HOOS it because...of steen???? (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 26 August 2013 21:04 (ten years ago) link
meeemories....of the wayyy we werrrrre
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BSnnm19CcAAYvCW.jpg
― HOOS it because...of steen???? (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 26 August 2013 21:16 (ten years ago) link
kaplan article fails to mention the air war in Kosovo was do-able because the russians and chinese weren't selling the bad guys sophisticated air defense tech like they have in syria.. this whole situation is bad news
― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 26 August 2013 21:22 (ten years ago) link
Farm service agency?
― how's life, Monday, 26 August 2013 23:22 (ten years ago) link
"free syrian army"
― HOOS it because...of steen???? (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, 26 August 2013 23:22 (ten years ago) link
"the world's most heinous weapons" ... an international poll of children finds they prefer to be blown apart with drones.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 27 August 2013 11:20 (ten years ago) link
lizza otm - diplomatic un solution could lead to stalling tactics from assad and an understood long term commitment from america in syria. any actions from obama would be yr desert fox type ops, i don't see him invading but by the time a president hillary or christie or whoever (besides rand) is dealing w/ it it could be something that 'credibility' demands. at the same time the non-diplomatic non-un solution we were hurtling toward a week ago could easily lead to the exact same spot.
― balls, Thursday, 12 September 2013 17:17 (ten years ago) link
phew?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/14/world/middleeast/us-wont-insist-un-resolution-threaten-force-on-syria-officials-say.html?hp&_r=0
― flesh, the devil, and a wolf (wolf) (amateurist), Friday, 13 September 2013 21:40 (ten years ago) link
U.S. and Russia Reach Deal to Destroy Syria’s Chemical Arms
― Mordy , Sunday, 15 September 2013 04:53 (ten years ago) link
Meanwhile, spiderman and captain America reach deal to destroy doc ock's mechanical arms
― how's life, Sunday, 15 September 2013 05:01 (ten years ago) link
andy borowitz everybody!
― balls, Sunday, 15 September 2013 05:05 (ten years ago) link
Presumably Russia has some pull with Assad.
― Aimless, Sunday, 15 September 2013 16:23 (ten years ago) link
http://theam.cn/17NwNg2
― balls, Sunday, 15 September 2013 18:07 (ten years ago) link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10311007/Syria-nearly-half-rebel-fighters-are-jihadists-or-hardline-Islamists-says-IHS-Janes-report.html
― Mordy , Monday, 16 September 2013 20:42 (ten years ago) link
Wow, I'm not sure I would have wanted to be there for that straw poll...
― I have gathered no gaudy flowers of speech in other men's gardens (dowd), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 01:56 (ten years ago) link
Well, I read a Danish analysis of that question, and I think it's important to realize, that out of six provinces under rebel control, only one is controlled by the jihadists. It's probably what they talk about when they mention 'northern syria', and apparantly it's a desert area, not very populated, without any kind of structure. Really, it's a wide area, but it's less important in a nationalist view. It's like with mali, the jihadists have an easier time dominating less contested areas. Apparantly they are financed by Qatar and - surprisingly - Turkey. Turkey help them since they are fighting against kurds.
― Frederik B, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 10:21 (ten years ago) link
But I thought the only people who disliked Assad were fanatics, and that if we give them food they'll only spend the calories killing Christian babies...
― I have gathered no gaudy flowers of speech in other men's gardens (dowd), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 11:05 (ten years ago) link
That's one heck of a diet...
― Ma mère est habile Mais ma bile est amère (Michael White), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 14:01 (ten years ago) link
So, what do we think about the UN-report? The gas was delivered by advanced rocket-technology, with cyrillian letters on them at least two rockets was fired from area controlled by the regime (and the trajectory of the other rockets couldn't be determined). I think it is quite convincing.
― Frederik B, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 14:27 (ten years ago) link
It was always silly to suggest that, if chemical weapons had been used at all, they had been deployed by anyone other than Assad's government. So, a finding that the means of delivery points to the Assad regime is completely unsurprising. The more important question has always been, what kind of a response makes practical sense?
― Aimless, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 15:44 (ten years ago) link
Yup. "One man can change the world with a bullet in the right place." Uh..."Give me a cruise missile long enough and a pivot and I shall move the world." "The World and Life are one. ... Ethics and Aesthetics are one." There must be an answer somewhere...
― I have gathered no gaudy flowers of speech in other men's gardens (dowd), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 18:57 (ten years ago) link
But really, in this case, the thread of violence had some pretty good consequences, right?
― Frederik B, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 19:58 (ten years ago) link
Depends on whether we end up at the same point in five years, except with roughly half the number of people left alive to save.
― I have gathered no gaudy flowers of speech in other men's gardens (dowd), Tuesday, 17 September 2013 20:01 (ten years ago) link
xp: It wasn't an advanced rocket. Both government and rebels have tons of 132mm launchers and rockets, a technology dating back to 1942, and they work just fine for delivering chemical agents where accuracy isn't all that important.
They may even be superior to artillery shells, as the launcher and round can use cheaper, developing world materials, rather than high strength forgings, and still hold more explosive or chemical agent than a similarly sized shell.
I don't know how the Syrian military marked their chemical rounds, the U.S. Army used distinctive green bands around their shells. If chemical munitions were being distributed to lower level units, many manned by militias, it was probably only a matter of time before a few found their way into a launcher by command or accident.
― Sanpaku, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 20:11 (ten years ago) link
Yeah, according to what I've read, it wasn't 'a few' and it's pretty unlikely that 'lower lever units' would be entrusted with chemical weapons to begin with, as the chance of the shell being handled wrongly, leaking and killing many of your own soldiers is too high.
― Frederik B, Tuesday, 17 September 2013 20:20 (ten years ago) link
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/tunisia-to-fight-sex-jihad-trips-to-syria
― Mordy , Sunday, 22 September 2013 14:27 (ten years ago) link
Sy Hersh thinks Obama had some lies of omission about Syria non-shocker
Barack Obama did not tell the whole story this autumn when he tried to make the case that Bashar al-Assad was responsible for the chemical weapons attack near Damascus on 21 August. In some instances, he omitted important intelligence, and in others he presented assumptions as facts. Most significant, he failed to acknowledge something known to the US intelligence community: that the Syrian army is not the only party in the country’s civil war with access to sarin, the nerve agent that a UN study concluded – without assessing responsibility – had been used in the rocket attack.
But in recent interviews with intelligence and military officers and consultants past and present, I found intense concern, and on occasion anger, over what was repeatedly seen as the deliberate manipulation of intelligence.
The same official said there was immense frustration inside the military and intelligence bureaucracy: ‘The guys are throwing their hands in the air and saying, “How can we help this guy” – Obama – “when he and his cronies in the White House make up the intelligence as they go along?”’
― Multiple Miggs (dandydonweiner), Sunday, 8 December 2013 17:52 (ten years ago) link
Related: Sy Hersh doesn't have a better outlet than the London Review of Books?
― Multiple Miggs (dandydonweiner), Sunday, 8 December 2013 17:53 (ten years ago) link
oh, well here's why:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/08/seymour-hersh-syria-report_n_4409674.html
― Multiple Miggs (dandydonweiner), Monday, 9 December 2013 01:26 (ten years ago) link
hersh prob OTM as per usual.
― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Monday, 9 December 2013 03:18 (ten years ago) link
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/opinion/use-force-to-save-starving-syrians.html
― Mordy , Wednesday, 12 February 2014 02:53 (ten years ago) link
There's never been a shortage of armchair pundits advocating killing to avert famine. For those with short memories.
― disposable soma (Sanpaku), Friday, 14 February 2014 00:40 (ten years ago) link
good article https://harpers.org/archive/2016/01/a-special-relationship/
― Option ARMs and de Man (s.clover), Sunday, 31 January 2016 07:54 (eight years ago) link
A US air strike killed more than 85 civilians, including children, in Syria on Tuesday after the coalition mistook them for Islamic State fighters.
Some eight families were hit as they tried to flee fighting in their area, in one of the single deadliest strikes on civilians by the alliance since the start of its operations in the war-torn country.
Pictures of the aftermath of the dawn strikes on the Isil-controlled village of Tokhar near Manbij in northern Syria showed the bodies of children as young as three under piles of rubble.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the strikes appeared to have been carried out in error, with the civilians mistaken for Islamist militants.
It is thought Tuesday’s bombing was among the first by jets taking off from Incirlik air base in Turkey since it reopened after the failed coup.
The area has seen intense fighting between extremists and members of the US-backed Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) that have been advancing towards the Isil stronghold of Manbij under the cover of intense airstrikes by the US-led coalition.
The coalition has carried out more than 450 air strikes around the city since the operation to take the town began in May.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/us-air-strike-in-syria-kills-up-to-85-civilians-mistaken-for-isi/
― helpless before THRILLARY (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 20 July 2016 14:51 (seven years ago) link
is there another thread where we all freak out at the assassination of the russian ambassador to turkey.
― the klosterman weekend (s.clover), Monday, 19 December 2016 21:48 (seven years ago) link
closest: Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!
― nashwan, Monday, 19 December 2016 22:11 (seven years ago) link
no shit. https://t.co/kyq7746lwK— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) August 17, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 17 August 2017 21:17 (six years ago) link
"the West" still stands for blowing shit up......thank you pic.twitter.com/lAYXODksUP— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) April 15, 2018
― the ignatius rock of ignorance (Dr Morbius), Monday, 16 April 2018 03:08 (six years ago) link
This language is directly from the Dick Cheney & Karl Rove playbook and script when they would attack Democrats in the Bush years who wanted to "cut and run" and leave the various Middle East wars. There's zero difference in rhetoric or mentality: "our enemies will not fear us." https://t.co/HJ7Lr7WRsW— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) December 20, 2018
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 20 December 2018 21:32 (five years ago) link
Assad is bad imo
― Nerdstrom Poindexter, Thursday, 20 December 2018 21:47 (five years ago) link
Yeah, but Iraqi Shia and Afghan crime lords were despicable allies. The YPG are cool.
― Sanpaku, Thursday, 20 December 2018 21:48 (five years ago) link
Assad purposely bombed clinics run by Doctors Without Borders because they treated anyone who came to them, some of whom may have been combatants. Of course, all of the medical staff and most of the patients were non-combatants. So, yes, he is bad.
― A is for (Aimless), Thursday, 20 December 2018 21:54 (five years ago) link
he sure is, and doesn't appear to be going anywhere, as Nobel winner Obama himself said
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 20 December 2018 22:24 (five years ago) link
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/03/world/us-raid-syria-isis
Syria? ISIS? What the fuck?
― peace, man, Thursday, 3 February 2022 14:21 (two years ago) link