Miguel Cabrera Needs His Own Thread

This post is meant for me and me alone. Please, move along.

I was trying to estimate his chance of another Triple Crown, and I figure it's 5% at best. If you took Chris Davis out of the equation, I'd say he'd be up around 80 or 90% at this point.

He's probably close to locking up the batting title--put him at a conservative 85% there. RBI, 45% (and 45% for Davis, and 10% for the rest of the league). But home runs, he'd have to make up six in the remaining games. Even if Davis were to settle into a 30-HR pace the rest of the way--which doesn't seem that unreasonable--he'd still hit 9 or 10, putting him around 50. Cabrera needs 14 more for 50, which would mean continuing his current pace. The chances of both those things happening, or something close in either direction? I don't know--10-15%? 85% x 45% x 15% = 6%. But Cabrera won't play every game, and he walks a lot, and Davis may stay hot, so knock that down even more.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9568471/miguel-cabrera-truly-magical-hitter

stark on where miggy ranks with the greatest RH hitters ever

He should have 3000 hits in 5-6 years, which is pretty remarkable.

He's got a decent shot at a couple of very short lists:

2000 RBI: Aaron, Ruth, Anson (and A-Rod, if he can get another 50)
6000 Total Bases: Aaron, Musial, Mays (A-Rod still needs close to 600)

The RBI mark is easier--seven more seasons of typical performance (110 a year). TB, he'd need probably need eight more--he'll cross 3,500 this year. He turns 31 next April. But at the same point, Pujols was at 1,230 RBI and 3,580 TB--basically the same. Things change.

also the rbis are dependent on the team around him

what do we know about miggy, except that he likes a drink? does he watch a ton of video? does he spend half his waking life in the cage? is he a savant?

Saved his teammates in combat in China; loves to play solitaire.

Tigers' analyst just pointed out that his front leg and foot moved and/or landed differently on recent HRs off Rivera, Danks.

also the rbis are dependent on the team around him

Less so than most players, I think. I checked his ten 100-RBI seasons, and four of the teams were below the league average in runs, six were above. (All but one Marlins team below, all but one Tigers team above; many of them on either side were fairly close to the league average.) Provided he's healthy, he doesn't strike me as someone who's only going to knock in 80 because the players in front of him aren't anything special.

What I'm saying is that his RBI consistency doesn't seem especially a function of anything other than him being his normal self when hitting with baserunners:

Career: .321/.399/.570
Runners on: .332/.411/.577
RISP: .337/.433/.570

Now, I don't know whether he's batted more often than average with baserunners on over the course of his career--with Florida, probably not, with the Tigers, quite probably yes.

One thing that surprises me looking at his splits is how much better he is against finesse pitchers than power pitchers:

Power (1,300+ AB): .277/.394/.495
Finesse (2,500+ AB): .350/.421/.615

That's a sizable gap. I thought great power hitters were almost always great fastball hitters.

where are you getting the power/finesse splits from?

It's all on Baseball Reference, in the Career Batting Splits section:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cabremi01&year=Career&t=b

They have three categories: power, average power/finesse, finesse. There's got to be some subjectivity at work there in the grey area.

Not to press the point, but I was thinking about who Cabrera's been hitting behind this year: Austin Jackson/Andy Dirks and Torii Hunter. Jackson and Dirks have been mediocre at best in the lead-off spot: Jackson's .264/.332/.411 (not good at getting on base, decent power), Dirks is .278/.300/.371. Hitting #2, Hunter is .305/.340/.463--good power, nothing special in getting on. Cabrera's knocking in a run a game because of Cabrera: .391/.506/.807 with runners on (wow), .437/.555/.899 with RISP (really wow).

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/18044761/176717774.0_standard_709.0.jpg

Esoteric to the point of being meaningless, but a nice short list anyway:

"Cabrera became the third player since 1921 to have at least 40 homers and 120 RBIs while batting .350 or better through 116 games, joining Babe Ruth and Jimmie Foxx, according to STATS."

surprised their aren't more players on that list, in particular early 2000s barry bonds!

As Mr. Shasta used to lecture, Barry walked too often to rack up RBI. (I post that, by the way, knowing full well how phony such constructions are, when you set the bar at x/y/z so that somebody who has just barely reached each benchmark qualifies.)

Can we start having the "is Miggy already a HOFer?" discussions yet?

Who is going to argue he isn't a HOFer? I mean I could see how he doesn't make it (drugs basically) but otherwise I think even if his career ended tomorrow (or fizzled completely a la Pujols so far) it'd be hard to imagine him not making it.

he's passed the mean on the basic ink/monitor tests, is 18th at 3b by JAWS:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_3B.shtml

Pie Traynor is 58th on that list!

yeah he could retire today and be a worthy candidate

If he retires today, I think he'd easily get a Koufax pass. Or, the more appropriate analogy, Kirby Puckett. I know that not everyone thinks Puckett should be in, but I would have voted for him. Cabrera's 11 seasons are clearly superior to Puckett's 12. (They're somewhat close in WAR.) And on the assumption he plays out the string, his decline would have to be historically precipitous to gum things up.

Another thread, but the case that might be more contentious than anybody would have guessed three years ago will be Halladay's if he doesn't make it back. Analytically, he still gets in easily--I would certainly vote for him. But you can see where there'd be resistance.

Halladay is not as solid 'analytically' as Schilling or Mussina

Clemenza made all the points I was going to make ... some people would argue that his career wasn't long enough, like with Puckett, and memories are short. Edgar Martinez is having a hard time getting into the HOF because people are misled by his relatively short career and relatively unimpressive counting stats instead of remembering how dominant he was in his prime (well, that and the DH thing). And if Halladay never pitches effectively again it'll be the same story with him too.

Cabrera also has the resume-padding (what I like to call the "non-analytical") stuff that some of you dismiss covered: an MVP (probably a second) and a few Top 10 finishes, two batting titles (probably a third), the Triple Crown, even a World Series winner some people have probably forgotten he was part of.

I'm sure Schilling and Mussina will both go in, as they should. I'd take Halladay over either, although Schilling had the best two- or four-year peak. Anyway, I think Halladay will be okay now that I think about it. The obvious stumbling block is the 201 wins. But a) Pedro had slipped my mind, and his induction will make that less of a problem, b) a low win total coupled with a high winning percentage is less damaging, and c) wins are becoming less and less important every year in general, and five or six years from now, I imagine their importance to a HOF resume will be minimal if there's enough clear counter-evidence.

I wouldn't use Pedro as an example there, because he had the best peak of all time.

Cabrera has all the awards and intangibles, definitely. But suppose he fell off a cliff like Pujols and has six or seven years of OK to good production marred by injuries (or if you want to use an existing example, suppose his career follows Ken Griffey Jr.'s in his thirties). By the time he comes up for election, it'll be a good 12-15 years after his prime, and people usually forget how good a player was after not seeing him at the top of his game for so many years. If he really does turn out like Griffey and piles up enough counting stats to make his election a no-brainer, then great, but if he ends up with 450 HR, 1500 RBI or so then who knows.

Anyway, this is why I like to have these discussions while guys are still in their prime.

I was trying to think of possible career paths for Cabrera, and couldn't think of any relevant third basemen. But since he's just impersonating a third basemen anyway, there are a couple over at first who looked like good HOF bets through their age 30/31 seasons, but look like non-starters now.

If he has a fairly quick, productive exit, Delgado. Delgado had one of his two best seasons at 31, so consider his decline to start at 32. Cabrera today + Delgado age 32-37 = 2,710 hits, 530 HR, .307/.388/.556.

A longer, less productive exit, McGriff. Cabrera today + McGriff age 31-40 = 3,316 hits, 592 HR, .305/.385/.532.

Either one, he's in. (Usual caveat already noted above.) I think he'd really have to go into free-fall to play himself out of the HOF at this point. It'd have to be either something like Mattingly, where he's retired by the time he's 35, or he'd have to turn into, I don't know, Sid Bream overnight. But I understand your what-have-you-done-for-me-lately argument--that does matter (cf. Andruw Jones).

i think the discussion's more useful with players who aren't all-time greats like cabrera - there's just no way, short of him being busted for PEDs or something, that he's not elected to the HOF.

agree with Kev here.

One guy who's at a critical juncture right now is Sabathia. He was never going to have a strong sabermetric argument--better than Morris, obviously, but that still wasn't his path--so he had to get to 300 wins or reasonably close. If he doesn't reverse course quickly, I'd say his chance is gone. Verlander, I'd give him the benefit of the doubt and say this year's a blip.

i mean it'd be one thing if he were a sabermetric secret like idunno blyleven or tulowitzki these days, but the same body that has witnessed miggy have the first triple crown season in 35 years and is about to give him 2 straight MVPs is the one that will be considering his HOF candidacy. they aren't just going to forget!

yeah i was just thinking about CC yesterday, his advanced numbers are actually very good aren't they, particularly his FIP numbers, but he definitely needs a couple more all-star seasons at least to be safe

maybe we need a HOF chances musing thread

thought we did somewhere...

This is the most general one, I think:

hall of fame, next vote...

Are Any of These Guys HOF Bound?

Rank 20 active players on potential HOF induction

wait, that first one is just the recent tulo/reyes/hanram one

Andruw Jones and Beltran should both be HOFers, but then again the Hall is a total joke to me until Bonds and Clemens get in.

The writers won't forget Miggy obv but he could be underrated by the same group of writers in 10-15 years time. They underrated him until about two years ago, so it could happen again. Or consider Vlad Guerrero -- phenom in Montreal who could do anything (they write the same kinds of things about Puig today), won an MVP with the Angels, had plenty of great years, but declined quickly. His HOF was borderline as it is, but I kind of feel he's already been forgotten somewhat.

He was never going to have a strong sabermetric argument

what does this even mean? he has a 60+ fWAR and he's only 33.

Is it possible for you to ask these questions less aggressively?

What it means is that most of his years fall into the 3.0-5.0 range on Baseball Reference, with three very good years in the 6.2-7.5 range. He's never led the league, with his best finishes being two seconds and a fourth. And, through a fluke of history, his 2010 season (and Price's) became the symbolic counter-arguments against Felix in the old vs. new debate. If decline has indeed set in, I wouldn't call that a strong sabermetric argument, and I don't see him going into the HOF with fewer than 275 wins.

Sabbathia is not going to get in on peak so it really all depends on how he declines. If it's gently with the Yankees we're probably talking 250-260 wins at age 36. I think that's probably enough.

^^^ not a sabermetric argument.

I just see Sabathia as a classic throwback, the guy who was going to make his way into the Hall by winning 15-20 games a year, year-in and year-out, with peripheral stats that were never going to be as strong as the very best pitchers in the game (Felix, Kershaw, etc.), or even as good as passing-through WAR leaders (Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jiminez, etc.) I don't mean that his peripheral stats aren't pretty solid--his H/9 is consistently in the 7.5-8.5 range, and he's under 3.00 in K/BB--which is why I differentiated him from Morris. But even at the most basic level, ERA, he's at 3.59, which I think would be at the high end of post-war inductees, especially if it goes up even more.

I like CC! He's one of my favourite players in the game, and I hope he turns it around.

once the New Generation takes over, you know they don't have much use for ERA, right?

"Just under 3.00," that should read...Don Sutton; I guess I see CC's HOF path as Don Sutton's, more or less.

Once the New Generation takes over, ERA, Who's Who in Baseball, and I will get in a car and drive out to the coast for good.

lol, do they still publish WWiB? I think I only bought it in '72 and 73.

I was surprised to see it on a newsstand a year or two ago:

http://www.amazon.com/2013-Whos-Baseball-Pete-Palmer/dp/0910692335

Same here--maybe one copy downstairs. (I used to buy Zander Hollander and/or Street & Smith instead.) Pete Palmer's the editor now, though, so I assume there's been some movement towards including less traditional stats.

Seeing a Seinfeld episode here:

Morbius: It must be a bummer for you guys, what with the fall of Joe Morgan and everything.
Clemenza: Yeah, well, we still have Heyman, and Mitch Albom too.
Morbius: Yeah, but come on...
Clemenza: I know, it's not the same.
Morbius: Well, you had a good run--what was it, 75, 100 years? Wreaking havoc, getting Jim Rice into the Hall of Fame, getting that MVP for Justin Morneau...
Clemenza (sighs): Yeah, we had a good run.

This came up on High Heat Stats today:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6YzVvtxoaY

Love Palmer (I think that's who it is) watching the replay: "What is this?"

Awesome. I remember hearing about it -- maybe from here! -- but hadn't seen it.

Sale added, "I presented him with my prized autographed portrait of Drake LaRoche."

The other day:

https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fmedia%2Fmotion%2F2023%2F0820%2Fdm_230820_MLB_One%2DPlay_Miggy_Jose_Ramirez_moment%2Fdm_230820_MLB_One%2DPlay_Miggy_Jose_Ramirez_moment.jpg

16 Beltre
17 Cabrera
18 Brett

<3

Some good clips of his last game here: https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-cabrera-walks-plays-first-base-in-final-mlb-game

Cabrera ends his career with a .306 average, 3,174 hits (16th-most in Major League history), 511 home runs (tied for 25th), 627 doubles (13th), 1,881 RBIs (12th), 1,258 walks, 103 sacrifice flies (tied for 25th) and a .900 OPS.

Some abysmal stretches but his last month (.324/.365/.441) wasn't a bad way to go out. He seemed to enjoy himself all season.

16th in hits is no joke

I'll always be a fan for giving me the chance to experience something I'd been waiting years for, a Triple Crown. I did not, as a result, fully engage with the rookie out in California, but that's okay.

"How about that? They put the guy out there for a curtain call and the first ball is hit right [to him],” said Guardians manager Terry Francona. “Sometimes, maybe things work out for a reason."

https://www.mlb.com/news/miguel-cabrera-walks-plays-first-base-in-final-mlb-game

'how often do you see it? guy makes a great play in the field and it turns out he's leading off the next inning!'

will also miss tito. glad neither of them got thrown out of the game

It was lovely seeing the gifts he got at various stadiums on the way. Except for the A’s giving him a bottle of wine…wtf was that

I watched the highlights of his final game and was struck by how lucky we are to have these nice final moments of HOF-worthy players. I think this is something new -- what happened in Reggie Jackson's final game? Rod Carew's final game? Great players retire now and their final moments in MLB become news, with a touching send-off that people can remember forever. Jeter and Petitte made the pitching change to remove Mo Rivera from his final game, Joe Mauer came in to catch one last time ... this stuff is priceless.

I def remember that broken bat rocking chair Mariano got. Thought it was insanely cool.

These are pretty cool too

The Tigers gave Miggy Jordan cleats made out of baseballs from milestone moments throughout his career 🤯 pic.twitter.com/jcKl2o80D2

— MLB Life (@MLBLife) September 30, 2023